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モバイルオペレーターCapex支出:世界の動向・予測 2016-2025年

Mobile Operator Capex Spending: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2016-2025

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 588881
出版日 ページ情報 英文 28 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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モバイルオペレーターCapex支出:世界の動向・予測 2016-2025年 Mobile Operator Capex Spending: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2016-2025
出版日: 2017年12月06日 ページ情報: 英文 28 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、モバイルオペレーターのCapexについて詳細に分析し、5Gおよび関連する仮想化・オートメーションなどの展開状況と投資パターンへの影響分析、オペレーター主要5社のプロファイル、7つの地域と中国・5つの支出カテゴリー別によるCapex予測の内訳などを提供しています。

目次

世界の動向

  • 5Gへの支出は2018年から2025年のCapexを23%増加させることに貢献するが、そのパターンは3Gから4Gとは根本的に異なる
  • オペレーターの5つのタイプ - それぞれが独特のCapexプロファイルを持つ - は、MNOモデルが多様であるため、地域のモバイル投資で優位に立つ
  • オペレーターモデルの細分化は投資の新たなパターンを意味する
  • 主に統合型オペレーターに主導され、5Gは10年以上にわたって展開の段階にあるが、新たなエコノミクスを持つディスラプターが徐々に発生
  • 各種オペレータータイプは、これらの新たなCapex基準の中で異なる投資戦略を持つ;新興市場が成長を促進する見込み、ほか

オペレーターの動向

  • 先進市場の統合:統合型オペレーターはファイバーをネットワークコスト基盤の転換およびよりホールセール主導のモデルへの移行のために利用
  • DMモバイル中心:4Gのリードを保証するための多額の支出は、オペレーターがROIおよびファイバー提携へ圧力をかけるため、減速
  • EM統合型:中国は早期の5G展開を促進するが、市場構造および規制はいくつかの領域における成長戦略を阻害
  • EM確立型:効率的なアーキテクチャーを重視し、Capex水準はモバイルが支配的なブロードバンド市場において上昇を続ける
  • EM破壊者:同グループは新規Capex投資の主要な促進因子であるが、効率性を重視、ほか

地域の動向

  • 地域の動向
  • 西欧
  • 中東欧
  • 中東・北アフリカ
  • サハラ以南アフリカ
  • 新興アジア太平洋
  • 中国
  • 先進アジア太平洋
  • 北米
  • ラテンアメリカ

付録

目次

This is Analysys Mason's first comprehensive forecast of mobile operator capex spending and provides an invaluable companion to our wireline network capex forecasts at a time when investment in fibre and wireless are increasingly co-dependent.

Capex spending by mobile operators has been in decline, but the intertwined investments in 5G networks, virtualisation and fibre will drive a gradual recovery from 2018. However, operators will be chasing dramatically lower total cost of ownership in 5G, which will see investment shifting from major physical network deployment to software, automated operations and non-network assets such as content rights.

The report provides:

  • a detailed breakdown of mobile operator capex to 2025, well into the early 5G era
  • an in-depth view of how 5G, as well as related developments such as virtualisation and automation, will affect patterns of investment
  • capex envelopes for five different operator profiles with very different spending priorities
  • capex forecasts broken down by seven regions plus China, and by six categories of spending (RAN, core, IT, infrastructure, transformation and non-network assets).

Table of Contents

  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. 5G spending will help to drive a 23% rise in capex from 2018 to 2025, but its pattern will be radically different from 3G and 4G
  • 9. Five types of operator - each with a distinctive capex profile - will dominate regional mobile investment as the MNO model diversifies
  • 10. Fragmentation of the operator models means new patterns of investment
  • 11. 5G will be deployed in phases over a decade, initially led by integrated operators, but increasingly introducing disruptors with new economics
  • 12. Different operator types will have different investment strategies within these new capex norms; emerging markets will drive growth
  • 13. Prior to the deployment of 5G radio, most operators are investing in foundations that will alter the economics of the new network
  • 14. The need for a lower cost base for 5G will increase sharing and wholesaling, creating a split between utility and capex-light MNOs
  • 15. New software-driven architectures, in tandem with increased sharing and outsourcing, will represent significant capex, reducing future costs
  • 16. Operator trends
  • 17. Developed market integrated: Integrated operators will use their fibre to transform the network cost base and move to a more wholesale-driven model
  • 18. Developed market integrated: Early moves to 5G and new architectures will create a heavy capex burden in 2020, before efficiencies have an impact
  • 19. DM mobile-centric: The heavy spending to assure a lead in 4G is slowing as operators pursue RoI and fibre partnerships
  • 20. DM mobile-centric: This type of operator cannot win based on scale; they will instead focus on disruptive services and flexible architectures
  • 21. EM integrated: China will drive early 5G deployments, but market structure and regulation will hamper growth strategies in some areas
  • 22. EM integrated: China will drive early 5G deployments, but market structure and regulation will hamper growth strategies in some areas
  • 23. EM established: Capex levels will continue to rise in mobile-dominated broadband markets, with a focus on efficient architectures
  • 24. EM established: Under pressure from disruptors, these operators must consolidate leadership and expand into multi-play
  • 25. EM disruptor: This group represents the main driver of new capex investment, but with an extreme focus on efficiencies
  • 26. EM disruptor: A heavy focus on sharing will introduce efficiencies to the whole market while opening doors to further new entrants
  • 27. Regional trends
  • 28. Regional trends: Emerging markets will drive capex recovery as they play mobile broadband leapfrog
  • 29. Western Europe: LTE will be the main driver of capex spending until 2022 or later, but the ability to finance 5G is in question
  • 30. Central and Eastern Europe: Russia will dominate new capex projects; other CEE spending patterns grow closer to those of WE
  • 31. Middle East and North Africa: integrated operators will modernise and make early 5G moves to retain their leadership
  • 32. Sub-Saharan Africa: Investment will be fragmented until 2023 when this region will become the main engine of capex growth
  • 33. Emerging Asia-Pacific: Disruptors will have a strong impact in an opex-heavy market where 5G will be introduced cautiously
  • 34. China: Spending will recover after a steep drop in investment in 2017, but MNOs will use new architectures to control 5G capex
  • 35. Developed Asia-Pacific: Mobile-centric telcos will invest heavily to offset integrated MNOs' strategic advantage in fibre control
  • 36. North America: Capex dip in 2017 is a blip, but despite being a 5G frontrunner, investment will be spread thinly over the decade
  • 37. Latin America: Despite disruption in Mexico, the region will be in capex decline until 2021 as new deployments progress slowly
  • 38. Appendix
  • 39. Worldwide: There will be changing capex:opex balance
  • 40. Worldwide: A new supply chain will depress capex growth
  • 41. Forecast categories and definitions
  • 42. Geographically scope: Forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 regions
  • 43. Definitions
  • 44. Mobile operator network segmentation
  • 45. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 46. About the author
  • 47. About Analysys Mason
  • 48. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 49. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Mobile operator capex, worldwide, 2016-2025
  • Figure 2: Mobile operator capex, worldwide, 2008-2025
  • Figure 3: Capex spending by equipment category, worldwide, 2016-2025
  • Figure 4: Capex on RAN allocated to LTE and 5G, worldwide, 2016-2025
  • Figure 5: Average capex per operator by different MNO profiles, worldwide, 2016-2025
  • Figure 6: Main areas of capex growth by operator profile, 2016-2025
  • Figure 7: Capex spend on RAN, core and IT equipment (excluding virtualisation), worldwide, 2016-2025
  • Figure 8: Capex spend on infrastructure (including sites and backhaul, where owned), worldwide, 2016-2025
  • Figure 9: Divergence of operator models between utility and MNO-light
  • Figure 10: Cost savings achieved by network transformation, and investment in the enablers of transformation, worldwide, 2017-2025
  • Figure 11: Contribution of key transformation technologies to capex savings potential, worldwide, 2017-2025
  • Figure 12: Capex spend by DM integrated operators, worldwide, 2016-2025
  • Figure 13: Percentage of capex spending by category for DM integrated operators, worldwide, 2016 and 2025
  • Figure 14: DM Integrated operators' current and forecasted capex spending by category, worldwide, 2016-2025
  • Figure 15: Capex spend by DM mobile-centric operators, worldwide, 2016-2025
  • Figure 16: Percentage of capex spending by category for DM mobile-centric operators, worldwide, 2016-2025
  • Figure 17: DM mobile-centric operators' current and forecasted capex spending by category, worldwide, 2016-2025
  • Figure 18: Capex spend by EM integrated operators worldwide, 2016-2025
  • Figure 19: Percentage of capex spending by category for EM integrated operators, worldwide, 2016 and 2025
  • Figure 20: EM integrated operators' current and forecasted capex spending by category, worldwide, 2016-2025
  • Figure 21: Capex spend by EM established mobile operators, worldwide, 2016-2025
  • Figure 22: Percentage of capex spending by category for EM established mobile operators worldwide, 2016
  • Figure 23: EM established mobile operators' current and forecasted capex spending by category, worldwide, 2016-2025
  • Figure 24: Capex spend by EM disruptors, worldwide, 2016-2025
  • Figure 25: Percentage of capex spending by category for EM disruptors, worldwide, 2016
  • Figure 26: EM disruptors' current and forecasted capex spending by category, worldwide, 2016-2025
  • Figure 27: Mutual sharing arrangements between Reliance Communications and Reliance Jio, 2015
  • Figure 28: Mobile capex forecast in developed economies, selected regions, 2016-2025
  • Figure 29: Mobile capex forecast in emerging economies, selected regions, 2016-2025
  • Figure 30: Capex forecast by equipment category, Western Europe, 2016-2025
  • Figure 31: Capex forecast by operator type, Western Europe; 2016-2025
  • Figure 32: Capex forecast by equipment category, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016-2025
  • Figure 33: Capex forecast by operator type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016-2025
  • Figure 34: Capex forecast by equipment category, Middle East and North Africa, 2016-2025
  • Figure 35: Capex forecast by operator type, Middle East and North Africa, 2016-2025
  • Figure 36: Capex forecast by equipment category, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016-2025
  • Figure 37: Capex forecast by operator type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016-2025
  • Figure 38: Capex forecast by equipment category, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2016-2025
  • Figure 39: Capex forecast by operator type, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2016-2025
  • Figure 40: Capex forecast by equipment category, China, 2016-2025
  • Figure 41: Capex forecast by equipment category, developed Asia-Pacific, 2016-2025
  • Figure 42: Capex forecast by operator type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2016-2025
  • Figure 43: Capex forecast by equipment category, North America, 2016-2025
  • Figure 44: Capex forecast by operator type, North America, 2016-2025
  • Figure 45: Capex forecast by equipment category, Latin America, 2016-2025
  • Figure 46: Capex forecast by operator type, Latin America, 2016-2025
  • Figure 47: Opex dominates MNO spending and is increasing more steadily
  • Figure 48: Impact of open architectures on macrocell capex costs, 2017 and 2022
  • Figure 49: Regions covered in this report
  • Figure 50: Definitions used in this report
  • Figure 51: Representation of mobile operator network segmentation
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