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市場調査レポート

中東欧の通信市場:傾向と予測 (2017〜2022年)

Central and Eastern Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 554059
出版日 ページ情報 英文 48 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=114.58円で換算しております。
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中東欧の通信市場:傾向と予測 (2017〜2022年) Central and Eastern Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
出版日: 2017年09月06日 ページ情報: 英文 48 Slides
概要

中東欧諸国における通信サービス市場は、ハンドセット経由 (モバイル) データ通信の収益額拡大や、固定回線ネットワークへの投資拡大を受けて、今後も回復基調が続くものと思われます。

当レポートでは、中東欧諸国における通信市場の最新情勢と将来展望について分析し、市場規模の全体的な見通し (今後5年間分) や、サービス内容別・国別の詳細動向、市場構造の変化の方向性などを調査しております。

目次

  • エグゼクティブ・サマリー
  • 地域市場の将来予測と、国別の相互比較
    • 市場構造:NGA (次世代アクセス)・4Gのシェアの拡大見通し
    • 市場の背景事情:景気回復に伴う通信市場の収益額拡大
    • 市場収益額とARPU:中東欧市場全体の1/4以上を、モバイルデータ通信からの収益が占める
    • モバイル通信普及率:モバイルSIM普及率は一定水準に留まる見通し (トルコを除く)
    • モバイル通信接続件数:4G/5Gへの段階的移行が進むが、2G/3Gも完全には消滅しない見通し
    • スマートフォンとLTE:スマートフォンのシェアは、2022年には82%に達する
    • モバイルブロードバンド:LTEインフラの整備が、モバイルブロードバンド接続件数の短期的な増加を促す
    • モバイルARPU:料金引き下げ圧力の低下と、高料金のデータプランの登場により、ARPUは安定する見通し
    • 世代別のデータ通信量・市場収益額:4G技術の普及に伴う、サービス収益の拡大見通し
    • 固定回線サービス:NGAネットワークの導入と、家庭用FBBの普及が、固定回線オペレーターの最大の関心事項となる
    • 固定回線ブロードバンド (FBB):どの地域でも普及率は上昇するが、普及速度は景気動向や地域特性により異なる
    • 中東欧市場の主な促進要因
  • 各国レベルの将来予測
    • チェコ:モバイル通信料金が上昇に転じると共に、市場収益額も回復し始める
    • ポーランド:モバイルデータ通信と固定回線ブロードバンドで、市場全体の41%を占める
    • ロシア:固定回線・モバイル通信双方の音声通話の減少を受けて、2022年までの成長率はマイナス1.8%となる
    • トルコ:4Gサービスの普及とNGAネットワークの開始を受けて、固定回線・モバイル通信とも収益が拡大する
  • 著者およびAnalysys Masonについて

図表一覧

分析対象地域

  • 中東欧 (ブルガリア、クロアチア、チェコ、エストニア、ハンガリー、ラトビア、リトアニア、モンテネグロ、ポーランド、ルーマニア、ロシア、セルビア、スロバキア、スロベニア、トルコ、ウクライナ)

主要業績評価指標 (KPI)

  • 接続件数
    • モバイル通信
      • ハンドセット、モバイルブロードバンド、M2M (機械間通信)
      • プリペイド方式、契約方式
      • 2G、3G、4G、5G
      • スマートフォン/それ以外
    • 固定回線通信
      • 音声通話、ブロードバンド、IPTV、ダイヤルアップ
      • ナローバンド音声通話、VoBB
      • DSL、FTTP/B、ケーブルテレビ、BFWA、その他
  • 音声通話トラフィック
    • 発信時間、MoU
  • 市場収益額
    • モバイル通信
      • サービス、リテール
      • プリペイド方式、契約方式
      • ハンドセット、モバイルブロードバンド、M2M
      • ハンドセット音声通話、メッセージ、データ通信
    • 固定回線
      • サービス、リテール
      • 音声通話、ブロードバンド、IPTV、ダイヤルアップ、BNS
      • DSL、FTTP/B、ケーブルテレビ、BFWA、その他
  • ARPU (ユーザー1人当たり平均収益)
    • モバイル通信
      • SIM、ハンドセット
      • プリペイド方式、契約方式
      • 音声通話、データ通信
目次

"The recovery of telecoms revenue in Central and Eastern Europe will continue during the next few years, driven by handset data revenue growth and fixed network investments."

Analysys Mason expects growth opportunities in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) during the forecast period. Increasing service revenue in the region will be driven primarily by retail revenue from mobile handset data. Opportunities to increase data revenue in CEE are significant because the take-up of data is still low (compared with Western Europe, for example), and mobile has been used mainly for voice connections. Growth in spending on data will be stimulated by streaming services and the widespread availability of 4G networks.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 360 mobile and fixed KPIs for CEE and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)

Countries modelled individually

  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Estonia
  • Hungary
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Montenegro
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Serbia
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Turkey
  • Ukraine

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, othe

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Table of Contents

  • 8.Executive summary
  • 9.The recovery in telecoms revenue will continue during the next few years, driven by handset data revenue growth and fixed network investments
  • 10.Revenue from mobile handset data in CEE, supported by fixed broadband revenue growth, will offset the continuing decline of voice revenue
  • 11.Increasing retail revenue in CEE will be driven by a better performance in the mobile sector and NGA roll-outs
  • 12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15.Geographical coverage: The share of NGA and 4G connections will increase in most countries in Central and Eastern Europe
  • 16.Market context: CEE's improving economy will help to increase telecoms revenue
  • 17.Revenue and ARPU: Mobile handset data revenue will account for more than a quarter of total retail telecoms revenue in CEE
  • 18.Mobile penetration: The level of mobile SIM penetration will remain stable in the CEE region, with the exception of Turkey
  • 19.Mobile connections: 4G/5G connections will gradually displace 3G/2G, but we do not expect 3G/2G network decommissions before 2022
  • 20.Smartphones and LTE: The smartphone share of handsets in CEE will reach 82% by 2022
  • 21.Mobile broadband: The widespread deployment of LTE infrastructure in CEE will support short-term growth of mobile broadband connections
  • 22.Mobile ARPU: ARPU will stabilise due to declining competitive pressure on prices and the increasing take-up of more-expensive data plans
  • 23.Data and revenue by generation: 4G technology roll-outs will drive service revenue increases in CEE
  • 24.Fixed services: NGA network deployment and increasing FBB household coverage will be the focus of fixed telecoms operators
  • 25.Fixed broadband: Penetration rates will increase across the region, but the pace of progress will vary due to economical and geographical diversity
  • 26.Key drivers at a glance for each market in Central and Eastern Europe
  • 27.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 28.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 29.Individual country forecasts
  • 30.Czech Republic: Revenue will start to recover as mobile voice prices have bottomed out
  • 31.Czech Republic -mobile: Revenue will grow, but the market will still be 18% smaller in 2022 than it was in 2012
  • 32.Czech Republic-fixed: Competition is driving market decline, but growth will return by 2022
  • 33.Poland: Mobile handset data and fixed broadband will account for 41% of the country's total telecoms retail revenue in 2022
  • 34.Poland -mobile: Content services and widespread LTE coverage will help MNOs to increase handset data revenue
  • 35.Poland-fixed: Fixed network investments and a focus on service take-up will drive NGA broadband access revenue
  • 36.Russia: Total service revenue will decline by 1.8% per year until 2022, mainly driven by declines in fixed and mobile voice
  • 37.Russia -mobile: Competition in the country's mobile market will increase and lead to a decline in handset ARPU
  • 38.Russia -fixed: Increasing fibre penetration and the introduction of FMC bundles will soften broadband ARPU decline
  • 39.Turkey: Revenue growth in the fixed and mobile segments will be driven by 4G service take-up and NGA network roll-outs
  • 40.Turkey -mobile: The race for 4G coverage and a high mobile handset data service demand will drive an increase in ARPU
  • 41.Turkey -fixed: Household FBB penetration will increase to 70% and almost half of households will have NGA access by 2022
  • 42.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 43.About the authors
  • 45.About Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue growth by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016-2022
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016-2022
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 5: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2022
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the 16 countries modelled individually in Central and Eastern Europe, 2016
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016-2022
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, -2022
  • Figure 10a: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 10b: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2016 and 2022
  • Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 14a: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 14b: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, CEE, 2012-2022
  • Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 18a: Residential fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 18b: Residential fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 19: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2012) and future trajectory (2017-2022), by country, Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 20a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 20b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Czech Republic, 2012-2022
  • Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Czech Republic, 2016-2022
  • Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, Czech Republic, 2016-2022
  • Figure 24: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Czech Republic, 2012-2022
  • Figure 25: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Czech Republic, 2012-2022
  • Figure 26: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Czech Republic
  • Figure 27: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Czech Republic, 2012-2022
  • Figure 28: Fixed ASPU by service type, Czech Republic, 2012-2022
  • Figure 29: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Czech Republic
  • Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Poland, 2011-2022
  • Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Poland, 2016-2022
  • Figure 32: Connections by type, and growth rates, Poland, 2016-2022
  • Figure 33: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Poland, 2012-2022
  • Figure 34: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Poland, 2012-2022
  • Figure 35: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Poland
  • Figure 36: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Poland, 2012-2022
  • Figure 37: Fixed ASPU by service type, Poland, 2012-2022
  • Figure 38: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Poland
  • Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Russia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Russia, 2016-2022
  • Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, Russia, 2016-2022
  • Figure 42: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Russia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 43: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Russia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 44: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Russia
  • Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Russia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 46: Fixed ASPU by service type, Russia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 47: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Russia
  • Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Turkey, 2012-2022
  • Figure 49: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Turkey, 2016-2022
  • Figure 50: Connections by type, and growth rates, Turkey , 2016-2022
  • Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Turkey, 2012-
  • Figure 52: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Turkey, 2012-2022
  • Figure 53: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Turkey
  • Figure 54: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Turkey, 2012-2022
  • Figure 55: Fixed ASPU by service type, Turkey, 2012-2022
  • Figure 56: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Turkey
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