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市場調査レポート

中東欧の通信市場:傾向と予測

Central and Eastern Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 554059
出版日 ページ情報 英文 36 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=109.52円で換算しております。
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中東欧の通信市場:傾向と予測 Central and Eastern Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023
出版日: 2019年03月20日 ページ情報: 英文 36 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、中東欧諸国における通信市場の最新情勢と将来展望について分析し、市場規模の全体的な見通し (今後5年間分) やサービス内容別・国別の詳細動向、市場構造の変化の方向性などを調査しております。

調査対象地域

  • 中東欧
  • ブルガリア
  • クロアチア
  • チェコ共和国
  • エストニア
  • ハンガリー
  • ラトビア
  • リトアニア
  • モンテネグロ
  • ポーランド
  • ルーマニア
  • ロシア
  • セルビア
  • スロバキア
  • スロベニア
  • トルコ
  • ウクライナ

主要業績評価指標 (KPI)

  • 接続件数
    • モバイル通信
      • ハンドセット・モバイルブロードバンド・M2M
      • プリペイド方式・契約方式
      • 2G・3G・4G・5G
      • スマートフォン/それ以外
    • 固定回線通信
      • 音声通話・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイヤルアップ
      • ナローバンド音声通話・VoBB
      • DSL・FTTP/B・ケーブルテレビ・BFWA・5G・その他
  • 音声通話トラフィック
    • 発信時間・MoU
  • 市場収益額
    • モバイル通信
      • サービス・リテール
      • プリペイド方式・契約方式
      • ハンドセット・モバイルブロードバンド・M2M
      • ハンドセット音声通話・メッセージ・データ通信
    • 固定回線
      • サービス・リテール
      • 音声通話・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイヤルアップ・BNS
      • DSL・FTTP/B・ケーブルテレビ・BFWA・その他
  • ARPU (ユーザー1人当たり平均収益)
    • モバイル通信
      • SIM・ハンドセット
      • プリペイド方式・契約方式
      • 音声通話・データ通信
目次

"Improved LTE network coverage, LTE-A speeds and capacity upgrades will ensure that mobile data will continue to be a key area of telecoms retail revenue growth."

Telecoms service revenue in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will increase during the forecast period, supported by a more positive economic outlook. Mobile data revenue and fixed broadband deployments will remain key areas for retail revenue growth. The growth in retail revenue from mobile data (supported by improved LTE network coverage, LTE-A speeds and capacity upgrades) will be particularly crucial for the total telecoms revenue growth.

THIS REPORT AND ASSOCIATED DATA ANNEX PROVIDE:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 330 mobile and fixed KPIs for CEE, as a whole and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for the key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators
Region modelled
  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
Countries modelled individually
  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Estonia
  • Hungary
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Montenegro
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Serbia
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Turkey
  • Ukraine
Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Fixed
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU
Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Fixed
  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary and recommendations
  • 9. Telecoms revenue will continue to grow during the forecast period, driven by growth in handset data consumption and fixed network investments
  • 10. Telecoms retail revenue growth will be driven by expanding LTE coverage, prepaid-to-contract migration and a focus on network improvements
  • 11. Geographical coverage: 4G/5G connections will increase by more than 100% in most countries and NGA will account for 83.8% of FBB connections by 2023
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13. Key recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15. Market context: a favourable economic outlook across the region will maintain telecoms revenue growth
  • 16. Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries
  • 17. Key drivers at a glance for each Central and Eastern Europe market
  • 18. Market overview: total telecoms revenue growth will be driven by smartphone adoption, usage of high-value handset data plans and increased service coverage
  • 19. Mobile: growing demand for video streaming services will encourage data traffic growth as LTE-A coverage expands and smartphone penetration increases
  • 20. Mobile: mobile penetration will decline in half of the modelled countries as a result of ongoing migration from multiple prepaid SIMs to single postpaid plans
  • 21. Mobile: prepaid-to-postpaid migration and growing data consumption -encouraged by increasing 4G adoption -will drive expansions in ARPU for most markets
  • 22. Mobile: declining price pressure and improved LTE/LTE-A coverage will positively affect mobile ARPU
  • 23. Fixed: a relatively low level of legacy infrastructure across CEE allows greater penetration of NGA technologies as networks expand
  • 24. Fixed: fixed broadband household penetration will increase by 23 percentage points between 2017 and 2023
  • 25. Fixed: fixed broadband is highly competitive across CEE, but ASPU degradation will be offset by an increasing number of bundled offers
  • 26. Fixed: fixed-mobile converged (FMC) bundles and speed upgrades will help operators to maintain revenue growth
  • 27. Business services: ‘other business services' provided by specialised IT players will be responsible for the vast majority of growth in revenue
  • 28. IoT: the market will grow as operators begin to deploy infrastructure across CEE
  • 29. Pay TV: CEE will continue to be a primarily traditional pay-TV market between 2018 and 2023
  • 30. Individual country forecasts
  • 31. Czech Republic: IoT will cause revenue growth in the mobile market, and investments in fixed broadband infrastructure will drive fixed revenue
  • 32. Czech Republic: 5G services are expected to begin in 2019; this will be the earliest launch in CEE
  • 33. Czech Republic: mobile competition will intensify if a fourth mobile operator enters the market
  • 34. Czech Republic: forecast changes
  • 35. Poland: the total market revenue growth will be limited by strongcompetition but fixed broadband revenue will increase
  • 36. Poland: operators will continue to invest in NGA networks and mobilenetwork upgrades
  • 37. Poland: network upgrades and coverage expansions will be the focal point of operators' strategies
  • 38. Poland: forecast changes
  • 39. Russia: total telecoms service revenue growth will slow down during the forecast period as the mobile market saturates
  • 40. Russia: the growing availability and affordability of smartphones combined with increasing demand for online content will encourage 4G take-up
  • 41. Russia: the fixed market has undergone a large degree of consolidation while the mobile market will expand in the coming years
  • 42. Russia: forecast changes
  • 43. Turkey: high inflation will artificially raise revenue growth, but strong technological improvements will also lead to increases in revenue
  • 44. Turkey: data consumption will grow over time, driven by an increase in 4G adoption following its fairly late introduction to the market in 2015
  • 45. Turkey: strong fixed and mobile investments will drive revenue growth but double-digit inflation will create a tough market situation
  • 46. Turkey: forecast changes
  • 47. Methodology
  • 48. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 49. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 50. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 51. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 52. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 53. About the authors [1]
  • 54. About the authors [2]
  • 55. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 56. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 57. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2017-2023
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2017 and
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the 16 countries modelled individually in Central and Eastern Europe, 2017
  • Figure 6: Recent and forthcoming market structure changes in Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory (2018-2023), by country, Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), -2023
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), -2023
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Central and Eastern Europe (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Central and Eastern Europe (GB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Czech Republic (CZK billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Czech Republic (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Czech Republic, 2013-2023
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Czech Republic (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Czech Republic, 2013-2023
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Czech Republic (CZK per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Czech Republic (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Czech Republic (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Czech Republic, 2013-2023
  • Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Poland (PLN billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Poland (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Poland, -2023
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Poland (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Poland, 2013-
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Poland (PLN per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Poland (MB per month), 2013-
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Poland (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Poland, 2013-2023
  • Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Russia (RUB trillion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Russia (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Russia, -2023
  • Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Russia (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Russia, 2013-
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Russia (RUB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Russia (MB per month), 2013-
  • Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Russia (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Russia, 2013-2023
  • Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Turkey (TRY billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Turkey (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Turkey, 2013-2023
  • Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Turkey (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Turkey, 2013-2023
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Turkey (TRY per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Turkey (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Turkey (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Turkey, 2013-2023
  • Figure 63a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 63b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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