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中東欧の通信市場:中間予測アップデート (16ヶ国) 2016-2021年

Central and Eastern Europe Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update (16 countries) 2016-2021

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 425871
出版日 ページ情報 英文 21 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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中東欧の通信市場:中間予測アップデート (16ヶ国) 2016-2021年 Central and Eastern Europe Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update (16 countries) 2016-2021
出版日: 2017年01月24日 ページ情報: 英文 21 Slides
概要

2021年までに中東欧における4G/5G接続のシェアは51%に達すると見込まれ、8ヶ国では70%を上回ると予測されており、2021年までに11ヶ国におけるスマートフォン普及率は85%を越える見込みです。

当レポートでは、中東欧全体および主要16ヵ国における345以上のモバイル・固定KPIの5ヵ年予測の中間アップデートを提供しており、前回予測と比較して大きく変化した項目について説明しています。

目次

  • エグゼクティブサマリー・地域予測
  • 中東欧 (CEE) におけるモバイル端末データ収益は、通信収益を促進し、固定収益の下落を鈍化
  • スマートフォンおよび4G/5G:CEEにおけるスマートフォン浸透率、LTEネットワーク展開が遅い諸国も含む
  • 固定サービス:固定ブロードバンド (FBB) の世帯浸透率は61%に達し、2021年までにCEEにおけるFBBの78%をNGA技術が構成
  • 主要地域の前回予測からの変化:固定ブロードバンドおよびIPTV収益は上方修正、一方、音声収益の浸食は続く
  • 各国の予測
  • チェコ共和国:モバイル市場の大幅な改善により、収益予測はより楽観的に
  • ポーランド:政府の固定ブロードバンド展開をサポートする計画にも関わらず、モバイルブロードバンド収益の減少は、より緩やかに
  • ロシア:低迷するモバイル市場は予測の下方修正を余儀なくする
  • 著者・Analysys Mason について
  • 著者について
  • Analysys Mason について
  • Analysys Mason の調査
  • Analysys Mason のコンサルティング

図表

目次

"The share of 4G/5G connections in Central and Eastern Europe will reach 51%, and will surpass 70% in eight countries by 2021; smartphone penetration will exceed 85% in 11 countries by 2021."

Overall telecoms service revenue in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will decline during the forecast period as a result of falling mobile voice and messaging revenue. However, we have revised our telecoms retail revenue forecast up because we expect slightly faster growth in broadband and pay-TV revenue than previously forecast.

This report provides:

  • an interim update of our 5-year forecast (Central and Eastern Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts (16 countries) 2016-2021, previously published in September 2016) of more than 345 mobile and fixed KPIs for CEE as a whole and for 16 key countries.
  • an explanation of the significant changes in this edition, compared with our previous forecasts.

Revisions to our previous forecasts occurred mainly for the following reasons:

  • market developments - based on recent market events and latest reported operator and regulator data (2Q 2016)
  • changes to the competitive and regulatory environment
  • changes to the macroeconomic outlook and exchange rates used to derive revenue in constant EUR
  • changes to historical data because of newly available information.

Coverage

Geographical coverage Key performance indicators
Regions modelled
  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)

Countries modelled individually
  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Estonia
  • Hungary
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Montenegro
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Serbia
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Turkey
  • Ukraine

Connections Mobile
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU
Revenue Mobile
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed
  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU
  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Countries not modelled individually, but modelled as part of the region as a whole
  • Albania
  • Belarus
  • Bosnia
  • Macedonia
  • Moldova

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary and regional forecasts
  • 6. Mobile handset data revenue in Central and Eastern Europe will drive telecoms revenue and the decline of fixed revenue will slow down
  • 7. Smartphones and 4G/5G/: The rate of smartphone take-up in CEE will be fast, including those countries with slower LTE network deployments
  • 8. Fixed services: Fixed broadband household penetration will reach 61%, and NGA technology will account for 78% of FBB lines in CEE by 2021
  • 9. Key regional changes since our previous forecast: fixed broadband and IPTV revenue has been revised up, while voice revenue erosion continues
  • 10. Key regional changes since our previous forecast: fixed broadband and IPTV revenue has been revised up, while voice revenue erosion continues
  • 11. Individual country forecasts
  • 12. Czech Republic: The revenue forecast is more optimistic, thanks to significant improvements in the mobile market
  • 13. Poland: A decline in mobile broadband revenue will be slower, despite government plans to support fixed broadband roll-outs
  • 14. Russia: A poorly performing mobile market forces a downward revision of the forecast
  • 15. Russia: A poorly performing mobile market forces a downward revision of the forecast
  • 16. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 17. About the authors
  • 18. About Analysys Mason
  • 19. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 20. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding IoT), Central and Eastern Europe, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 3: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 4: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast for Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue forecast by service type and total service
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Czech Republic, 2011-2021
  • Figure 9: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Czech Republic
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Poland, 2011-2021
  • Figure 11: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Poland
  • Figure 12: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Russia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 13: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Russia
  • Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Turkey, 2011-2021
  • Figure 15: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Turkey
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