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新興アジア太平洋におけるモバイルサービス:動向と予測 2017-2022年

Mobile Services in Emerging Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 357202
出版日 ページ情報 英文 15 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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新興アジア太平洋におけるモバイルサービス:動向と予測 2017-2022年 Mobile Services in Emerging Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
出版日: 2017年12月08日 ページ情報: 英文 15 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、新興アジア太平洋 (EMAP) におけるモバイルサービスについて取り上げ、世界市場の背景、地域の分析、および主要6ヶ国 (中国、インドネシア、マレーシア、フィリピン、タイ、ベトナム) における動向を分析しています。

エグゼクティブサマリー

世界の動向

  • モバイルサービス収益は予測期間を通して増加を続け、2022年には8570億米ドルに達する見込み

地域の動向

  • 収益・ARPU:加入者数の増加はARPUの僅かな減少を相殺し、小売り収益の安定成長をもたらす
  • モバイル普及率:EMAPにおけるアクティブモバイルSIM普及率は2016年の85%から2022年には99%へと成長
  • モバイル接続:4Gは予測期間を通して主要技術になると予測され、2022年におけるモバイル接続数の64%を構成する見込み
  • スマートフォン・LTE:技術改善により、スマートフォン普及率は2016年の52%から2022年に81%へ増加
  • モバイルブロードバンド:技術移行・改善はモバイルブロードバンド接続数の急成長を促進
  • モバイルARPU:全体的なARPUは予測期間中にマイナス2.2%のCAGR (年間複合成長率) へ下落し、終盤には5米ドル前後で安定する見込み
  • データ・収益、世代別:モバイルネットワーク建設・アップグレードは収益成長を促進し、データトラフィックを押し上げる

各国の動向

  • 中国:急速な4Gの普及および革新的な製品がセルラーデータ利用を促進し、5Gは2020年前後に開始される予測
  • インドネシア:競争激化が更に革新的な製品の提供につながり、4G普及率の増加をもたらす
  • マレーシア:激しい競争がデータ収益の成長を抑制 - オペレーターは収益性の高いポストペイドサービスにフォーカス
  • フィリピン:競争激化はオペレーターの収益性を妨げ、収益成長はごく僅か
  • タイ:ネットワーク速度の改善は4Gモバイル加入者数・データ収益の成長を促進
  • ベトナム:4G加入者数は技術の投入後、飛躍的に成長

予測手法・前提条件

著者・ANALYSYS MASONについて

図表リスト

目次

We expect mobile service revenue in emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP) to grow rapidly, thanks to the migration to 4G and increasing mobile data usage.

We examine key trends and drivers and provide a comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecast for the EMAP region and for six individually modelled countries.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of 127 mobile KPIs for emerging Asia-Pacific and for six key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE:

Countries modelled individually

  • China
  • Indonesia
  • Malaysia
  • Philippines
  • Thailand
  • Vietnam

DATA COVERAGE:

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMS, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Cai Shiyu (Research Analyst) contributes to Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme, and is based in our Singapore office. He had been involved in data collection process as well as analysis of telecoms market trends in developed and emerging Asia-Pacific. Before joining Analysys Mason, he worked as an intern with business development division of SAP, and conducted qualitative and quantitative research on cloud computing market. Shiyu holds a Bachelor's degree in finance and operations management at NUS Business School, Singapore.

Table of Contents

  • 5.Executive summary
  • 6.Telecoms total retail revenue will increase over the forecast period, but the growth rate will slow down
  • 7.Worldwide trends
  • 8.Worldwide: Mobile service revenue will continue to increase during the forecast period, reaching USD857 billion in 2022
  • 9.Regional trends
  • 10.Revenue and ARPU: Increasing subscriber numbers will offset a slight decline in ARPU, leading to stable growth in retail revenue
  • 11.Mobile penetration: Active mobile SIM penetration in EMAP will grow from 85% in 2016 to 99% in 2022
  • 12.Mobile connections: 4G will be the leading technology over the forecast period, accounting for 64% of mobile connections in 2022
  • 13.Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone penetration will grow from 52% in 2016 to 81% in 2022 due to technology improvements
  • 14.Mobile broadband: Technology migration and improvements will drive the rapid growth of mobile broadband connections
  • 15.Mobile ARPU: Overall ARPU will fall at a CAGR of -2.2% during the forecast period, stabilising around USD5 towards the end
  • 16.Data and revenue by generation: Mobile network construction and upgrades will drive revenue growth and boost data traffic
  • 17.Country-level trends
  • 18.China: Fast 4G take-up and innovative products drive cellular data usage, and 5G is expected to launch around 2020
  • 19.Indonesia: Intensified competition will lead to more innovative product offerings and result in 4G penetration growth
  • 20.Malaysia: Intense competition limits data revenue growth -operators focus on postpaid offerings for higher margins
  • 21.Philippines: Intensified competition will hamper operators' profitability, and revenue growth will be marginal
  • 22.Thailand: Improved network speeds will drive growth in 4G mobile subscriber numbers and data revenue
  • 23.Vietnam: The number of 4G subscribers will grow exponentially after the launch of the technology in 2017
  • 24.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 25.About the authors
  • 26.About Analysys Mason
  • 27.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 28.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in emerging Asia-Pacific and worldwide, USD (2016) billion, 2012-2022
  • Figure 3: Mobile retail revenue by service type, and mobile ARPU, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 4: Mobile retail revenue by service type, mobile service revenue and growth rates, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2016-2022
  • Figure 5: Connections by type, and growth rates, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2016-2022
  • Figure 6: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 7: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 8: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2016 and 2022
  • Figure 9: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 10: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 11: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 12: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 13: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, China, 2012-2022
  • Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, China, 2012-2022
  • Figure 15: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, China
  • Figure 16: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Indonesia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Indonesia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 18: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Indonesia
  • Figure 19: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Malaysia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 20: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Malaysia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 21: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Malaysia
  • Figure 22: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Philippines, 2012-2022
  • Figure 23: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Philippines, 2012-2022
  • Figure 24: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Philippines
  • Figure 25: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Thailand, 2012-2022
  • Figure 26: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Thailand, 2012-2022
  • Figure 27: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Thailand
  • Figure 28: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Vietnam, 2012-2022
  • Figure 29: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Vietnam, 2012-2022
  • Figure 30: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Vietnam
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