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サハラ以南アフリカのモバイルサービス:動向と予測

Mobile Services in Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 351710
出版日 ページ情報 英文 13 Slides
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サハラ以南アフリカのモバイルサービス:動向と予測 Mobile Services in Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024
出版日: 2019年08月02日 ページ情報: 英文 13 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、サハラ以南アフリカ (SSA) のモバイルサービスについて調査分析し、5ヶ年予測、動向・促進要因・予測の前提条件、オペレーター戦略の概要、国別動向など、体系的な情報を提供しています。

調査対象国

  • ガーナ
  • ケニヤ
  • ナイジェリア
  • 南アフリカ
  • タンザイニア
  • ウガンダ

主要統計

  • 接続数
    • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・M2M
    • プリペイド・契約ベース
    • 2G・3G・4G・5G
    • スマートフォン・非スマートフォン
  • 収益
    • サービス・リテール
    • プリペイド・契約ベース
    • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・IoT
    • 端末音声・メッセージング・データ
  • モバイルARPU
    • SIM・端末
    • プリペイド・契約ベース
    • 端末音声・データ
  • 音声トラフィック
    • 発信時間・MoU
目次

"Mobile services will continue to generate the vast majority of telecoms revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa, and will account for 86.6% of the total telecoms service revenue in the region in 2024."

We expect that mobile retail revenue will continue to increase in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the next 5 years, and will reach USD40.3 billion in 2024 amid regulatory and macroeconomic challenges. This report examines key trends and drivers and provides comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecasts for the SSA region.

This report provides:

  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa
  • worldwide context, regional analysis and commentary
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Countries modelled individually:
  • Ghana
  • Kenya
  • Nigeria
  • South Africa
  • Tanzania
  • Uganda

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPUc
  • SIMS, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary6.Executive summary
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: mobile service revenue will increase during the forecast period, but there will be significant differences between regions
  • 9. Regional trends
  • 10. The fast adoption of mobile data services will help telecoms operators to maintain service revenue growth
  • 11. The prepaid share of mobile connections will remain above 95%; this will play a role in keeping the ARPU low
  • 12. Mobile penetration will increase across the region as increasing network coverage is balanced by the decreasing need for multiple SIMs
  • 13. Consumer spending on data services and the migration to 3G/4G services will ensure a slower ARPU decline in some countries and increase ARPU in others
  • 14. SSA will remain a developing region in terms of mobile technology take-up because 3G will become the dominant form of mobile access
  • 15. Country-level trends
  • 16. Ghana: the growing demand for data will provide potential for moderate growth in the number of mobile connections
  • 17. Kenya: mobile market revenue will grow due to the increased network coverage and smartphone affordability
  • 18. Nigeria: mobile data revenue will form a growing share of the total revenue despite the crowded market and difficult economic conditions
  • 19. South Africa: there will be sustained growth in the mobile market thanks to a strengthening economy and improved network coverage
  • 20. Tanzania: mobile service revenue will keep growing during the forecast period despite intense competition in the market
  • 21. Uganda: there is potential for organic mobile revenue growth, but poverty and a large rural population will make it difficult to realise the potential
  • 22. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 23. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 24. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 25. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 26. About the authors
  • 27. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 28. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 29. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 2: Mobile service revenue by location, Sub-Saharan Africa and worldwide, 2014--2024
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 5: Mobile connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 6: Mobile connections by generation, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 7: Mobile ARPU by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 8: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 9: Mobile data traffic per connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (MB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 10a: Mobile penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 10b: Mobile penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 11a: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 11b: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 12: Mobile ARPU, Ghana (GHS per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 13: Mobile connections by type, Ghana (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 14: Mobile ARPU, Kenya (KES thousand per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 15: Mobile connections by type, Kenya (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 16: Mobile ARPU, Nigeria (NGN thousand per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 17: Mobile connections by type, Nigeria (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 18: Mobile ARPU, South Africa (ZAR per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 19: Mobile connections by type, South Africa (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 20: Mobile ARPU, Tanzania (TZS thousand per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 21: Mobile connections by type, Tanzania (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 22: Mobile ARPU, Uganda (UGX thousand per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 23: Mobile connections by type, Uganda (million), 2014--2024
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