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市場調査レポート

新興アジア太平洋地域におけるFTTx:動向と予測 2015-2020年

FTTx in Emerging Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 351706
出版日 ページ情報 英文 32 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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新興アジア太平洋地域におけるFTTx:動向と予測 2015-2020年 FTTx in Emerging Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
出版日: 2016年02月05日 ページ情報: 英文 32 Slides
概要

アジア太平洋地域の新興市場は、2015年における世界のFTTPカバレッジ増加分の約70%を構成し、中国単独で半数以上を構成しました。アジア太平洋地域の新興経済国における中間所得層は、FTTxネットワーク・サービス市場へ非常に大きな可能性を示しており、いくつかの国家計画は既に明らかな成功を収めています。

当レポートでは、新興アジア太平洋地域におけるFTTx市場について取り上げ、世界、地域および国別の市場動向について詳細に分析しています。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

世界の動向

  • 2020年までに、世界の半数以上がFTTxまたはケーブルにアクセスし、ブロードバンド接続の80%以上を構成
  • FTTPへの投資は2015年にピークを迎え、先進経済国と新興経済国では異なる経路をたどる
  • 銅線加速への関心は欧州において強いが、その他地域のほとんどは真っすぐとFTTPへ向かう
  • 資本資源の最適な利用について、古い、純粋にコストに基づいたモデルは、新しい考えに道を譲る
  • FTTxのサービス利用例は強制的、またFTTP向けマルチサービス利用例は技術戦略を形成
  • 新興経済国においてFTTxへの関心が高まる
  • ファイバー型アクセスのコンバージョン率が改善、また強制的なレガシーアクセスからの移行が増加

地域の動向

  • 新興アジア太平洋:中央集権計画の成功は新規参入者に難しい選択をゆだねる、ほか

各国の動向

  • 中国:中国国内市場への固定NGA供給において減速の兆し
  • インド:NGAカバレッジは依然として低いままであり、変化への推進力は無い
  • インドネシア:TelkomによるFTTx展開の野望は競争を困難に
  • マレーシア:HSBBは中間所得層向けFTTxのPOC (概念実証)
  • フィリピン:TD-LTEはFTTPへ道を譲る
  • タイ:主要オペレーターはファイバーを収益の新しいソースとして、またポストペイドの普及率を押し上げるものとして見なす

予測手法・前提条件

著者・Analysys Mason について

図表リスト

目次

"The emerging markets of Asia-Pacific accounted for 70% of all additional FTTP coverage worldwide in 2015 - China alone accounted for more than half."

Middle-income emerging economies in the Asia-Pacific region represent a huge potential market for FTTx networks and services, and some national plans are already enjoying demonstrable success. Converged fixed-mobile-video services will become the new paradigm for consumers in previously mobile-dominated markets.

The forecasts include the following metrics:

  • coverage (premises passed)
  • conversion (premises with active connections as a percentage of premises passed)
  • capex (split into network and connection)

Split by technology:

  • FTTC/VDSL
  • FTTB/VDSL
  • FTTB/LAN
  • FTTP (split into incumbent and alternative operator).

Geographical coverage

Countries modelled individually and included in this report

  • China
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Malaysia
  • Philippines
  • Thailand

Table of Contents

  • 6.Executive summary
  • 7.Worldwide trends
  • 8.Worldwide: By 2020, over half the world will have access to FTTx or cable, which will make up 80% of broadband connections
  • 9.Worldwide: Investment in FTTP will peak in 2015, and follow different paths in developed and emerging economies
  • 10.Worldwide: Interest in copper acceleration is strong in Europe, but much of the rest of the world is going straight to FTTP
  • 11.Worldwide: Older, purely cost-based, models are giving way to newer thinking about the optimal use of capital resources
  • 12.Worldwide: The service use case for FTTx is compelling, and the multi-service use case for FTTP will shape technology strategy
  • 13.Worldwide: Interest in FTTx is growing in emerging economies
  • 14.Worldwide: Conversion rates for fibre-based access are improving, and forced migration from legacy access is increasing
  • 15.Regional trends
  • 16.Emerging Asia-Pacific: The success of centralised state planning leaves new entrants with difficult choices
  • 17.Emerging Asia-Pacific: The major national schemes for NGA conversion have enviable take-up rates
  • 18.Country-level trends
  • 19.China: There are few signs of slowdown in the supply of fixed NGA to the Chinese domestic market
  • 20.India: NGA coverage remains very low, and there is little impetus for change
  • 21.Indonesia: The ambition of Telkom's FTTx roll-out makes competition difficult
  • 22.Malaysia: HSBB is proof-of-concept for middle-income FTTx
  • 23.Philippines: TD-LTE is paving the way for FTTP
  • 24.Thailand: Leading operators are looking to fibre as a new source of revenue and as a way to boost postpaid penetration
  • 25.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 26.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 27.Methodology for coverage and conversion
  • 28.Methodology for capex
  • 29.About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 30.About the author
  • 31.About Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: NGA premises passed by technology, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020
  • Figure 2: Active NGA connections, by technology, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020
  • Figure 3: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, worldwide, 2011-2020
  • Figure 4: NGA coverage by technology, worldwide, 2011-2020
  • Figure 5: Fixed broadband active connections, by technology, and NGA's share of connections, worldwide, 2011-2020
  • Figure 6: FTTx capex by market type, and availability and affordability of NGA, worldwide, 2013-2020
  • Figure 7: Incumbent operator FTTC or FTTB coverage, by region, 2015 and 2020
  • Figure 8: Cost of deploying FTTx by centile, new and old cost models (illustrative)
  • Figure 9: Bandwidth consumed by pixel resolution and type of MPEG-4 compression
  • Figure 10: Emerging economies' shares of worldwide FTTx premises passed and connected, and emerging economies' FTTx coverage, 2011-2015
  • Figure 11: Conversion rates for NGA by technology, worldwide, 2011-2015
  • Figure 12: FTTx net additions by technology, worldwide, 2011-2015
  • Figure 13: NGA coverage by technology, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020
  • Figure 14: FTTx capex by technology, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020
  • Figure 15: Active connections per premises, by technology, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020
  • Figure 16: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020
  • Figure 17: FTTx premises passed and connected, conversion rates, China, 2014-2020
  • Figure 18: FTTx connections and coverage, China, 2013-2020
  • Figure 19: FTTx connections and coverage, India, 2013-2020
  • Figure 20: FTTx connections and coverage, Indonesia, 2013-2020
  • Figure 21: FTTx connections and coverage, Malaysia, 2013-2020
  • Figure 22: FTTx connections and coverage, Philippines, 2013-2020
  • Figure 23: FTTx connections and coverage, Thailand, 2013-2020
  • Figure 24: Regional breakdown used in this report
  • Figure 25: Coverage and conversion model outline
  • Figure 26: Capex model outline
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