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市場調査レポート

中東欧の通信市場:中間予測アップデート (14ヵ国) 2015-2020年

Central and Eastern Europe Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update (14 Countries) 2015-2020

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 351302
出版日 ページ情報 英文 21 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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中東欧の通信市場:中間予測アップデート (14ヵ国) 2015-2020年 Central and Eastern Europe Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update (14 Countries) 2015-2020
出版日: 2016年02月02日 ページ情報: 英文 21 Slides

当商品の販売は、2018年07月04日を持ちまして終了しました。

概要

中東欧 (CEE) 地域におけるモバイル端末収益成長は、予測期間中のモバイル音声損失を上回り、4Gの接続シェアは2020年までに3Gを上回り、データ利用の拡大はさらに加速する見込みです。中東欧 (CEE) 地域における全体的な通信収益は2015年および2016年に回復しますが、2017年から2020年間に収益は緩やかに減少すると予測されています。

当レポートでは、中東欧 (CEE) 地域の14ヵ国における通信市場について調査し、市場動向の分析と予測を提供しており、前回予測と比較して大きく変化した項目について説明しています。

エグゼクティブサマリー・地域の予測

  • 中東欧における通信小売り収益は上方修正:2017年に再び下落が始まる前に2016年はわずかに増加
  • モバイル端末データ収益の上昇は全体的な通信収益の下落を抑制すると同時に音声収益の下落を上回る
  • スマートフォンLTE:スマートフォン普及率は下方修正、しかし成長は続く:接続に占めるLTEのシェアは40%を上回るしかし従来型サービス収益はさらに低下
  • 予測の修正:モバイルデータ・固定
  • 前回予測からの主要地域の変化:端末データ収益は上方修正、ブロードバンドの展望が改善するため、収益低下は前回の予測よりも緩やかに

各国の予測

  • チェコ共和国:DSLからの収益は、既存企業のFTTCアップグレードに対する投資により、固定ブロードバンド市場を下支え
  • ポーランド:価格競争は引き続き通信収益の下落を後押しするが、端末データ収益の成長が下落を抑制
  • ロシア
  • トルコ:固定・モバイルネットワーク拡大に促進され、安定した収益成長が続く

著者・Analysys Mason について

図表リスト

目次

"We expect that mobile handset data revenue growth in the CEE region will outpace mobile voice losses in the forecast period, and the share of connections for 4G will exceed 3G by 2020, further accelerating data usage growth."

Total telecoms revenue for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) was revised up for 2015 and 2016, but we expect revenue to slowly decline between 2017 and 2020.

Mobile handset data revenue growth will be the most important market driver in all countries that we have modelled individually. Mergers and market consolidation, together with increasing demand for bundles (driven by operator convergence) will facilitate improved ASPU and reduced churn. Demand for high-quality data services will drive revenue up because over-the-top (OTT) and streaming services are gaining momentum.

This report provides:

  • an interim update of our 5-year forecast (Central and Eastern Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts (14 countries) 2015-2020, previously published in September 2015) of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) as a whole and for four key countries.
  • an explanation of the significant changes in this edition, compared with our previous forecasts.

Revisions to our previous forecasts occurred mainly for the following reasons:

  • market developments - based on recent market events and latest reported operator and regulator data (2Q 2015)
  • changes to the competitive and regulatory environment
  • changes to the macroeconomic outlook and exchange rates used to derive revenue in constant EUR
  • changes to historical data because of newly available information.

Coverage

Geographical coverageMajor KPIs
Region modelledConnectionsRevenue
Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Mobile
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Fixed
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, pay TV
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL (ADSL/SDSL and VDSL), FTTH/B, cable, other

Mobile
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Fixed
  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, pay TV, BNS
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, other

Countries modelled individuallyFixed and mobile voice trafficMobile ARPU
  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Estonia
  • Hungary
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Turkey
  • Ukraine

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU
  • Mobile data

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice

Table of Contents

  • 5.Executive summary and regional forecasts
  • 6.Telecoms retail revenue in Central and Eastern Europe is revised up -increasing slightly in 2016 before it begins to decline again in 2017
  • 7.Rising mobile handset data revenue will limit the decline of overall telecoms revenue and will also outpace the decline of voice revenue
  • 8.Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone penetration is revised down, but growth continues - and LTE's share of connections will exceed 40%
  • 9.Key regional changes since our previous forecast: handset data revenue has been revised up, but traditional service revenue will decline further
  • 10.Forecast revision: revenue decline will be slower than previously expected because the mobile data and fixed broadband outlook has improved
  • 11.Individual country forecasts
  • 12.Czech Republic: Revenue from DSL will prop up the fixed broadband market as the incumbent invests in FTTC upgrades
  • 13.Poland: Price competition will continue to drive down telecoms revenue, but handset data revenue growth limits the decline
  • 14.Russia: The negative effect of a restated smartphone user base on 4G take-up will be limited by regulator decisions and investment
  • 15.Turkey: Strong revenue growth will continue, driven by fixed and mobile network expansion
  • 16.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 17.About the authors
  • 18.About Analysys Mason
  • 19.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 20.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 3: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 4: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast for Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Czech Republic, 2010-2020
  • Figure 9: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Czech Republic
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Poland, 2010-2020
  • Figure 11: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Poland
  • Figure 12: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Russia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 13: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Russia
  • Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Turkey, 2010-2020
  • Figure 15: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Turkey
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