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市場調査レポート

中東・北アフリカにおけるスマートフォン市場の動向・予測:2015-2020年

Smartphones in the Middle East and North Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 348317
出版日 ページ情報 英文 31 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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中東・北アフリカにおけるスマートフォン市場の動向・予測:2015-2020年 Smartphones in the Middle East and North Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
出版日: 2016年01月07日 ページ情報: 英文 31 Slides
概要

中東・北アフリカ (MENA) におけるスマートフォン普及率は、豊かなGCC諸国における人口比50%以上から、多くの北アフリカ諸国における10%を少し上回る程度まで様々です。オペレーターおよびベンダーはこれらの2次地域における異なる需要特徴に対応する効果的な手段を立案する必要があります。

当レポートでは、中東・北アフリカにおけるスマートフォン市場について調査し、スマートフォンの売上・普及に影響を及ぼす地域的な動向の予測、各国における予測・動向の分析、同地域におけるオペレーター・ベンダーのアプローチなどをまとめています。

エグゼクティブサマリー

世界の動向

  • 飽和するスマートフォン市場:オペレーターおよびベンダーはプライオリティを再評価しなければならない
  • 販売台数の増加は新興市場に依存するとみられ、ほとんどはアジア太平洋からもたらされる見込み
  • オペレーターはほとんどの地域でスマートフォンの主要ソースだが、その他のチャネルよりも形勢不利に
  • ベンダーの融資は急激な変化というよりもオペレーターのデバイス戦略の段階的な移行のエンドポイント
  • ベンダーの融資計画はユーザーがSIMオンリーの契約に準備が整っている諸国において成功する可能性が高い
  • オペレーターのバンドルは需要があり、プリペイドからポストペイ度への移行において重要な役割を果たす
  • Appleはハイエンド市場をリードし、中国ベンダーはローエンドの需要を獲得
  • 販売台数におけるiOSの市場シェアは2020年まで約15%で安定を維持する見込み

地域の動向

  • 中東・北アフリカ:置き換え活動の急増および潜在的ファーストタイムバイヤーのラージプールが成長を促進
  • 中東・北アフリカ:主な地域的動向
  • 中東・北アフリカ:最近スマートフォンを手に入れたオーナーは置き換える傾向が強い-理由はさまざま
  • 中東・北アフリカ:「その他」のスマートフォン流通チャネルはモバイルオペレーターからシェアを奪う

各国の動向

  • エジプト:プリペイド接続の普及がスマートフォン流通・導入におけるオペレーターの役割を制限
  • モロッコ:新しい4Gネットワークがスマートフォン導入への関心を高める
  • サウジアラビア:オペレーターはサービス契約付きバンドルデバイスに異なるアプローチをとる
  • UAE (アラブ首長国連邦) :オペレーターのポートフォリオは乏しく主力モデル指向

予測手法・前提条件

著者・Analysys Mason について

図表リスト

目次

"Operators in the region are reluctant to bundle smartphones with services, but they may be missing out on demand from a large group of consumers who rely on informal channels."

Smartphone penetration rates in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) vary from more than 50% of the population in wealthy GCC countries to slightly more than 10% in most North African countries. Operators and vendors need to devise effective means to address the different demand characteristics in these sub-regions.

This report and accompanying data annex provide:

  • forecasts for, and analysis of trends that affect, smartphone sales and penetration in MENA
  • country-level forecasts and trend analysis for Egypt, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
  • operator and vendor approaches in the region, and in the aforementioned list of countries.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Data and commentary are provided for the following countries in the Middle East and North Africa.

Data is provided for the following countriesDetailed commentary is provided for the following countries
  • Algeria
  • Egypt
  • Israel
  • Morocco
  • Saudi Arabia
  • United Arab Emirates (UAE)
  • Egypt
  • Morocco
  • Saudi Arabia
  • United Arab Emirates (UAE)

DATA COVERAGE

Connections
  • Mobile handsets (smartphone or basic phone)
  • Smartphones' share
Unit sales
  • Mobile handsets (smartphone or basic phone)
  • Smartphones' share

About the authors

Kerem Arsal (Senior Analyst) is a key contributor to Analysys Mason's Mobile Services research programme, which helps operators to understand, and monetise to maximum efficiency, the interplay between voice, messaging and data services. His work involves in-depth coverage of issues such as customer retention, mobile data pricing, MVNO strategies, and the impact of regulation and roaming. Previously, Kerem was a research manager at Pyramid Research, where he was responsible for setting the thematic research agenda across multiple tracks and regions. He also headed numerous projects around operator strategies, as well as commercialisation of, and demand assessment for, new products in the consumer and enterprise segments.

Heenu Nihalani (Research Analyst) is a member of Analysys Mason's Consumer Services research team in London, contributing to the Mobile Services, Mobile Devices, Future Comms and Media, and Digital Economy Strategies research programmes. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, she worked as a financial knowledge broker in London, and as a journalist and copywriter in Hong Kong. Heenu holds an MSc in financial analysis from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, and a Bachelor's degree in philosophy, politics and economics from the University of Warwick.

Table of Contents

  • 5.Executive summary
  • 6.Executive summary: First-time buyers in North Africa and low-income segments of the GCC countries will drive unit sales
  • 7.Worldwide trends
  • 8.Worldwide: Smartphone markets are saturating - operators and vendors must reassess their priorities
  • 9.Worldwide: Growth in unit sales will depend on emerging markets and will come mostly from emerging Asia-Pacific
  • 10.Worldwide: Operators are key sources of smartphones in most regions, but they lost some ground to other channels in 2015
  • 11.Worldwide: Vendor financing is the end-point of gradual shifts in operator device strategies rather than an abrupt change
  • 12.Worldwide: Vendor financing plans are most likely to succeed in countries where users are ready for SIM-only contracts
  • 13.Worldwide: Operator bundles are in demand and play a role in prepaid-to-postpaid migration
  • 14.Worldwide: Apple leads the high-end market and Chinese vendors are capturing demand at the low end
  • 15.Worldwide: iOS's market share of unit sales will remain stable at around 15% until 2020
  • 16.Regional trends
  • 17.Middle East and North Africa: Surges in replacement activity and a large pool of potential first-time buyers will drive growth
  • 18.Middle East and North Africa: Key regional trends
  • 19.Middle East and North Africa: Owners of recently acquired smartphones are more likely to replace - reasons vary
  • 20.Middle East and North Africa: ‘Other' smartphone distribution channels stole share from mobile operators in 2015
  • 21.Country-level trends
  • 22.Egypt: Prevalence of prepaid connections limit the role of operators in smartphone distribution and adoption
  • 23.Morocco: The new 4G networks will increase interest in smartphone adoption
  • 24.Saudi Arabia: Operators take different approaches to bundling devices with service contracts
  • 25.United Arab Emirates: Operators' portfolios are thin and oriented toward flagship models
  • 26.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 27.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 28.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 29.About the authors
  • 30.About Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2020
  • Figure 2: Mobile handset unit sales by type, and smartphones' share of unit sales, worldwide, 2012-2020
  • Figure 3: Smartphone unit sales by region, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 4: Percentage of respondents who bought their most recent handset from an operator, 16 countries, and averages for 2014 and 2015
  • Figure 5: Device bundling and financing plans by type
  • Figure 6: Seven areas of consideration for operators when assessing the potential impact of SIM-only and vendor financing take-up
  • Figure 7: Choice of next mobile tariff by type among those who plan to change their tariffs, by current tariff type, 6 European countries, US and South Korea
  • Figure 8: Choice of next mobile tariff by type among those who plan to change their tariffs, by current tariff type, 8 countries in MEA and emerging APAC
  • Figure 9: Smartphone unit sales by manufacturer, worldwide, 2012-2020
  • Figure 10: Smartphone unit sales by operating system, worldwide, 2012-2020
  • Figure 11: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2020
  • Figure 12: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2020
  • Figure 13: Key regional trends in handset markets, Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 14: Intention to replace current smartphone within 1 year, by device age and country
  • Figure 15: Most recent smartphone purchase by channel and country, a comparison of 2014 and 2015
  • Figure 16: Intended (within 6 months) and current mobile tariffs, by country and type, a comparison of 2014 and 2015
  • Figure 17: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Egypt, 2012-2020
  • Figure 18: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Morocco, 2012-2020
  • Figure 19: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Saudi Arabia, 2012-2020
  • Figure 20: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, United Arab Emirates, 2012-2020
  • Figure 21: Main enablers and constraints for our smartphone forecasts
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