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Smartphones in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 348316
出版日 ページ情報 英文 30 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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西欧におけるスマートフォン市場の動向・予測:2015-2020年 Smartphones in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
出版日: 2016年01月06日 ページ情報: 英文 30 Slides




  • 接続数
    • モバイル端末 (スマートフォン・ベーシックフォン)
    • スマートフォンのシェア
  • 販売台数
    • モバイル端末 (スマートフォン・ベーシックフォン)
    • スマートフォンのシェア


  • エグゼクティブサマリー
  • 世界の動向
    • 飽和状態のスマートフォン市場:通信事業者・ベンダーは優先事項を再考する必要がある
    • 販売台数の増加は新興市場に依存・多くはアジア太平洋からもたらされる見込み
    • ほとんどの地域において通信事業者がスマートフォンの主要購入経路だが、他の経路にいくらかのシェアを譲っている
    • ベンダーファイナンシング:急な変化というより通信事業者のデバイス戦略における段階的移行のエンドポイントである
    • ベンダーファイナンシングプラン:SIMオンリー契約に対応可能なユーザーを持つ国で成功する可能性が高い
    • 通信事業者のバンドルは需要があり、またプリペイドからポストペイドへの移行において重要な役割を果たす
    • Appleがハイエンド市場をリードし、中国のベンダーがローエンドの需要を獲得している
    • iOSの売上台数によるシェアは2020年まで約15%で安定を維持する見込み
  • 地域動向:西欧
    • 4Gへの移行がスマートフォンの売上を押し上げているが、買い替えサイクルは減速し、SIMオンリーの契約が増加
    • 主な地域動向
    • 依然として通信事業者がスマートフォンのサプライチェーンにおいて中心的役割を果たしているが、小売業者にいくらかのシェアを奪われている
    • Androidが主流のスペインを除き、Appleユーザーのモバイルサービスに対するNPSスコアが高い
  • 国別の動向
    • フランス
    • ドイツ
    • スペイン
    • 英国
  • 予測手法・前提条件
  • 著者およびANALYSYS MASONについて
  • 図表

"Operators need to consider ways of controlling mobile churn that are less dependent on smartphones and adapt their device financing plans to the changes in the value chain."

Western European smartphone markets are driven by the opposing forces of consumers' migration to 4G services, which generates demand for new smartphones, and the emergence of SIM-only dynamics, which are partly driven by consumers' reluctance to replace their existing smartphones. We expect smartphone distribution channels to change too as vendor financing plans become more salient in the region.

This report and accompanying data annex provide:

  • regional forecasts for, and analysis of trends that affect, smartphone sales and penetration
  • country-level forecasts and trend analysis for France, Germany, Spain and the UK
  • operator and vendor approaches in the region, and in the aforementioned list of countries.


Data and commentary are provided for the following countries in Western Europe.

Data is provided for the following countriesDetailed commentary is provided for the following countries
  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • UK
  • France
  • Germany
  • Spain
  • UK


  • Mobile handsets (smartphone or basic phone)
  • Smartphones' share
Unit sales
  • Mobile handsets (smartphone or basic phone)
  • Smartphones' share

About the authors

Kerem Arsal (Senior Analyst) is a key contributor to Analysys Mason's Mobile Services research programme, which helps operators to understand, and monetise to maximum efficiency, the interplay between voice, messaging and data services. His work involves in-depth coverage of issues such as customer retention, mobile data pricing, MVNO strategies, and the impact of regulation and roaming. Previously, Kerem was a research manager at Pyramid Research, where he was responsible for setting the thematic research agenda across multiple tracks and regions. He also headed numerous projects around operator strategies, as well as commercialisation of, and demand assessment for, new products in the consumer and enterprise segments.

Heenu Nihalani (Research Analyst) is a member of Analysys Mason's Consumer Services research team in London, contributing to the Mobile Services, Mobile Devices, Future Comms and Media, and Digital Economy Strategies research programmes. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, she worked as a financial knowledge broker in London, and as a journalist and copywriter in Hong Kong. Heenu holds an MSc in financial analysis from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, and a Bachelor's degree in philosophy, politics and economics from the University of Warwick.

Table of Contents

  • 5.Executive summary
  • 6.Executive summary: Smartphone sales will benefit from 4G service take-up, but SIM-only plans will limit growth
  • 7.Worldwide trends
  • 8.Worldwide: Smartphone markets are saturating - operators and vendors must reassess their priorities
  • 9.Worldwide: Growth in unit sales will depend on emerging markets and will come mostly from emerging Asia-Pacific
  • 10.Worldwide: Operators are key sources of smartphones in most regions, but they lost some ground to other channels in 2015
  • 11.Worldwide: Vendor financing is the end-point of gradual shifts in operator device strategies rather than an abrupt change
  • 12.Worldwide: Vendor financing plans are most likely to succeed in countries where users are ready for SIM-only contracts
  • 13.Worldwide: Operator bundles are in demand and play a role in prepaid-to-postpaid migration
  • 14.Worldwide: Apple leads the high-end market and Chinese vendors are capturing demand at the low end
  • 15.Worldwide: iOS's market share of unit sales will remain stable at around 15% until 2020
  • 16.Regional trends
  • 17.Western Europe: Migration to 4G boosts smartphone sales, but replacement cycles are slow and SIM-only contracts grow
  • 18.Western Europe: Key regional trends
  • 19.Western Europe: Operators have lost ground to retailers in 2015, but they are still central to the smartphone supply chain
  • 20.Western Europe: Apple users score higher NPS for mobile services, except in Spain where Android dominates
  • 21.Country-level trends
  • 22.France: Operators focus on minimising upfront payments for smartphones; Windows Phones do reasonably well
  • 23.Germany: Smartphone sales will peak at 31 million units in 2018 as accumulated demand catches up
  • 24.Spain: Android continues to dominate although iOS mildly improves market share during flagship launches
  • 25.United Kingdom: Operators place iOS at the core of their portfolios and marketing efforts
  • 26.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 27.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 28.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 29.About the authors
  • 30.About Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Western Europe, 2012-2020
  • Figure 2: Mobile handset unit sales by type, and smartphones' share of unit sales, worldwide, 2012-2020
  • Figure 3: Smartphone unit sales by region, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 4: Percentage of respondents who bought their most recent handset from an operator, 16 countries, and averages for 2014 and 2015
  • Figure 5: Device bundling and financing plans by type
  • Figure 6: Seven areas of consideration for operators when assessing the potential impact of SIM-only and vendor financing take-up
  • Figure 7: Choice of next mobile tariff type among those that plan to change their tariffs, by current tariff type, 6 European countries, US and South Korea
  • Figure 8: Choice of next mobile tariff type among those that plan to change their tariffs, by current tariff base, 8 countries in MEA and emerging APAC
  • Figure 9: Smartphone unit sales by manufacturer, worldwide, 2012-2020
  • Figure 10: Smartphone unit sales by operating system, worldwide, 2012-2020
  • Figure 11: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, Western Europe, 2012-2020
  • Figure 12: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Western Europe, 2012-2020
  • Figure 13: Key regional trends in handset markets, Western Europe
  • Figure 14: Most recent handset purchase by channel and country, 2015, and 2014 comparison for operators
  • Figure 15: Operators as a channel for smartphones and iPhones, and NPS differential of Apple users for mobile services, 2015
  • Figure 16: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, France, 2012-2020
  • Figure 17: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Germany, 2012-2020
  • Figure 18: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Spain, 2012-2020
  • Figure 19: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share in total handset sales, United Kingdom, 2012-2020
  • Figure 20: Main enablers and constraints for our smartphone forecasts
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