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スマートフォン:世界の動向と予測 2015-2020年

Smartphones: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 347792
出版日 ページ情報 英文 49 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=114.71円で換算しております。
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スマートフォン:世界の動向と予測 2015-2020年 Smartphones: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
出版日: 2015年12月22日 ページ情報: 英文 49 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、 世界のスマートフォン市場について取り上げ、世界8地域・66ヵ国のスマートフォン市場予測 (台数・ベンダー・OS) を提供しており、変化する売上チャネルのダイナミクス、ベンダー融資およびSIMオンリー契約のためのオペレーター戦略、および世界・地域における主な動向をまとめています。

目次

予測サマリー

世界の動向

  • 飽和しているスマートフォン市場:オペレーター・ベンダーはプライオリティを再評価しなければならない
  • 販売台数の増加は新興市場に依存し、ほとんどはアジア太平洋からもたらされる見込み
  • オペレーターは多くの地域においてスマートフォンの主要ソースだが、ほかのチャネルに対して不利に
  • ベンダーの融資は急な変化というよりはオペレーターのデバイス戦略における段階的な変化の終点
  • ベンダーの融資計画はSIMオンリー契約の準備ができているユーザーの国々において成功する可能性が高い
  • オペレーターのバンドルは需要があり、またプリペイドからポストペイドへの移行において重要な役割を果たす
  • Appleはハイエンド市場をリードし、中国のベンダーはローエンドの需要を獲得
  • iOS市場の売上台数シェアは2020年まで約15%で安定を維持する見込み

西欧

  • 4Gへの移行がスマートフォンの売上を押し上げるが、置き換えサイクルは減速し、SIMオンリー契約が増加
  • 主な地域動向

中東欧

  • 主要市場における経済障壁にも関わらず、スマートフォン売上は安定して増加する見込み
  • 主な地域動向

中東・北アフリカ

  • 置き換え活動の急増および潜在的ファーストタイムバイヤーの多さが成長を後押し
  • 主な地域動向

サハラ以南アフリカ

  • 低価格モデルは依然としてスマートフォン導入にとって重要だが、構造的な課題が残る
  • 主な地域動向

新興アジア太平洋

  • 低い浸透率およびモバイルデータ利用の需要がスマートフォン売上を押し上げる
  • 主な地域動向

先進アジア太平洋

  • Appleはハイエンド区分における成長をもたらすがスマートフォン市場は行き詰まる
  • 主な地域動向

北米

  • 需要を刺激するためオペレーターおよびベンダーは新しいデバイス融資・アップグレードプランへ切り替え
  • 主な地域動向

ラテンアメリカ

  • モバイルデータ接続・価格改善のため、スマートフォン需要は引き続き安定
  • 主な地域動向

予測手法・前提条件

著者およびANALYSYS MASONについて

図表リスト

目次

"Operators in developed markets can maintain relevance as smartphone providers by adapting their device portfolios and bundles to changes in replacement cycles, while those in emerging markets will face the challenge of providing smartphones to users who are predominantly on prepaid subscriptions."

In many developed markets, it will be difficult to increase annual unit sales of smartphones because high levels of adoption will limit the number of first-time buyers, consumers are difficult to impress with incremental innovation and interest in SIM-only contracts is on the rise. Emerging markets will provide almost all of the growth in smartphone unit sales between 2015 and 2020.

This report provides:

  • forecasts for smartphone markets (units, vendors, OS) worldwide, for 8 regions and for 66 countries
  • operator strategies for changing sales channel dynamics, vendor financing and SIM-only contracts
  • key worldwide and regional trends.

DATA COVERAGE

The data annex to this report provides the following data for mobile handsets.

     Mobile connections
  • by type (smartphone or basic)
  • by region
  • by country
     Unit sales
  • by type (smartphone or basic)
  • by region
  • by country

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

The data annex provides data for 66 countries in the following regions.

Regions

  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • Developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP)
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP)
  • Latin America (LATAM)
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
  • North America (NA)
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
  • Western Europe (WE)

Table of Contents

  • 7.Forecast summary
  • 8.Executive summary
  • 9.Worldwide trends
  • 10.Smartphone markets are saturating - operators and vendors must reassess their priorities
  • 11.Growth in unit sales will depend on emerging markets and will come mostly from emerging Asia-Pacific
  • 12.Operators are key sources of smartphones in most regions, but they lost some ground to other channels in 2015
  • 13.Vendor financing is the end-point of gradual shifts in operator device strategies rather than an abrupt change
  • 14.Vendor financing plans are most likely to succeed in countries where users are ready for SIM-only contracts
  • 15.Operator bundles are in demand and play a role in prepaid-to-postpaid migration
  • 16.Apple leads the high-end market and Chinese vendors are capturing demand at the low end
  • 17.iOS's market share of unit sales will remain stable at around 15% until 2020
  • 18.Western Europe
  • 19.Migration to 4G boosts smartphone sales, but replacement cycles are slow and SIM-only contracts grow
  • 20.Key regional trends
  • 21.Central and Eastern Europe
  • 22.Smartphone sales will grow strongly despite economic obstacles in key markets
  • 23.Key regional trends
  • 24.Middle East and North Africa
  • 25.Surges in replacement activity and a large pool of potential first-time buyers will drive growth
  • 26.Key regional trends
  • 27.Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 28.Low-cost models are still critical to smartphone adoption, but structural challenges remain
  • 29.Key regional trends
  • 30.Emerging Asia-Pacific
  • 31.Low penetration rates and demand for mobile data usage will boost smartphone sales
  • 32.Key regional trends
  • 33.Developed Asia-Pacific
  • 34.Apple provides growth in the high-end segment in an otherwise stalling smartphone market
  • 35.Key regional trends
  • 36.North America
  • 37.Operators and vendors switch to new device financing and upgrade plans to stimulate demand
  • 38.Key regional trends
  • 39.Latin America
  • 40.Demand for smartphones remains strong as mobile data connectivity and prices improve
  • 41.Key regional trends
  • 42.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 43.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 44.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 45.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 46.About Analysys Mason
  • 47.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 48.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Mobile handset unit sales by type, and smartphones' share of unit sales, worldwide, 2012-2020
  • Figure 2: Mobile handset unit sales by type, and smartphones' share of unit sales, worldwide, 2012-2020
  • Figure 3: Smartphone unit sales by region, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 4: Percentage of respondents who bought their most recent handset from an operator, 16 countries, and averages for 2014 and 2015
  • Figure 5: Device bundling and financing plans by type
  • Figure 6: Seven areas of consideration for operators when assessing the potential impact of SIM-only and vendor financing take-up
  • Figure 7: Choice of next mobile tariff by type among those who plan to change their tariffs, by current tariff type, 6 European countries, USA and South Korea
  • Figure 8: Choice of next mobile tariff by type among those who plan to change their tariffs, by current tariff type, 8 countries in MEA and emerging APAC
  • Figure 9: Smartphone unit sales by manufacturer, worldwide, 2012-2020
  • Figure 10: Smartphone unit sales by operating system, worldwide, 2012-2020
  • Figure 11: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, Western Europe, 2012-2020
  • Figure 12: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Western Europe, 2012-2020
  • Figure 13: Key regional trends in handset markets, Western Europe
  • Figure 14: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2020
  • Figure 15: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2020
  • Figure 16: Key regional trends in handset markets, Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 17: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2020
  • Figure 18: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2020
  • Figure 19: Key regional trends in handset markets, Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 20: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2020
  • Figure 21: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2020
  • Figure 22: Key regional trends in handset markets, Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 23: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2020
  • Figure 24: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2020
  • Figure 25: Key regional trends in handset markets, emerging Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 26: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2020
  • Figure 27: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2020
  • Figure 28: Key regional trends in handset markets, developed Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 29: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, North America, 2012-2020
  • Figure 30: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, North America, 2012-2020
  • Figure 31: Key regional trends in handset markets, North America
  • Figure 32: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, Latin America, 2012-2020
  • Figure 33: Smartphone unit sales and smartphones' share of mobile handset unit sales, Latin America, 2012-2020
  • Figure 34: Key regional trends in handset markets, Latin America
  • Figure 35: Main enablers and constraints for our smartphone forecasts
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