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中東欧におけるモバイルサービスの動向と予測:2016-2021年

Mobile Services in Central and Eastern Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 346137
出版日 ページ情報 英文 34 Slides
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中東欧におけるモバイルサービスの動向と予測:2016-2021年 Mobile Services in Central and Eastern Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日: 2017年02月15日 ページ情報: 英文 34 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、中東欧 (CEE) におけるモバイルサービス市場について取り上げ、世界市場および地域市場の動向分析、および技術進歩・インフラ開発の展望などを提供しています。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

世界の動向

  • 世界の収益は、ネットワーク展開におけるインフラ投資に促進され、モバイル・固定セグメントで増加する見込み
  • EMAP (新興アジア太平洋) およびSSA (サハラ以南アフリカ) における需要、および普及の速さは、世界の普及率を2021年までに105%へと押し上げる
  • 世界の端末のうち69%をスマートフォンが構成し、普及率はNA (95%) およびWE (92%) で最も高くなる見込み
  • モバイルARPU:高い競合レベルおよびOTTサービスによる代替は、引き続きARPUへ下方圧力をかける

地域の動向

  • 音声の減価償却は収益下落を促進するが、モバイル端末データ収益は2021年までに80%まで増加
  • ほとんどのCEE諸国でモバイル普及率が下落し、2021年には平均でCEE人口の142%へ達する
  • トルコ・ウクライナにおける発売延期にも関わらず、モバイル接続に占める4Gのシェアは2021年までに50%へ達する見込み
  • 地域カバレッジ:CEEはNGAブロードバンドアクセス技術が支配的となり、2021年までに接続全体の半数を4Gが構成する見込み
  • スマートフォンは平均で端末の78%を構成し、LTE技術はモバイル接続全体の半数を構成する見込み
  • 価格競争が激化するため、平均ARPUは全CEE諸国で下落すると見込まれるが、下落は2021年までに減速
  • 価格競争の激化によって、多くのCEE諸国におけるARPUは下落が見込まれるが、下落は緩やかに

予測手法・前提条件

著者・Analysys Mason について

図表リスト

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目次

"Mobile penetration in most CEE countries will decline as consumers continue to migrate from multiple-SIM ownership as contract plans become more affordable."

Obligatory prepaid registration in many countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will slow the rate of mobile penetration growth, mostly in the prepaid segment. Turkey will be the only country with increasing mobile penetration during the forecast period because the market is not yet saturated and service demand is high.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for CEE
  • an outlook for technology improvements and infrastructure developments
  • forecasts that are informed by on-the-ground market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions, and external interviews.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Estonia
  • Hungary
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Montenegro
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Serbia
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Turkey
  • Ukraine

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Lee Giet (Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing mainly to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Forecasts research programmes. Lee holds a BSc in Physics from University College London (UCL).

Kerem Arsal (Principal Analyst) is a key contributor to Analysys Mason's Mobile Services research programme, which helps operators to understand, and monetise to maximum efficiency, the interplay between voice, messaging and data services. His work involves in-depth coverage of issues such as customer retention, mobile data pricing, MVNO strategies, and the impact of regulation and roaming. Previously, Kerem was a research manager at Pyramid Research, where he was responsible for setting the thematic research agenda across multiple tracks and regions. He also headed numerous projects around operator strategies, as well as commercialisation of, and demand assessment for, new products in the consumer and enterprise segments.

Table of Contents

  • 6. Executive summary
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Revenue worldwide will increase in the mobile and fixedsegments driven by infrastructure investments in network roll-out
  • 9. Demand for, and the fast pace of take-up of, mobile in EMAP and SSA will boost penetration to 105% worldwide by 2021Worldwide slide 3
  • 10. Smartphones will account for 69% of handsets worldwide and take-up will be highest in NA (95%) and WE (93%)
  • 11. Mobile ARPU: The high level of competition and substitution by OTT services will continue to put downward pressure on ARPU
  • 12. Regional trends
  • 13. Voice depreciation will drive revenue decline, but mobile handset data revenue will increase by 80% by 2021
  • 14. Mobile penetration will decline in most CEE countries, reaching an average of 142% of the CEE population in 2021
  • 15. The 4G share of all mobile connections will reach 50% by 2021, despite delayed launches in Turkey and Ukraine
  • 16. Geographical coverage: CEE will be dominated by NGA broadband access technology; 4G will account for half of all connections by 2021
  • 17. Smartphones will account, on average, for 78% of handsets; LTE technology will account for half of all mobile connections
  • 18. Average ARPU will decline in most CEE countries due to intense price competition, but the decline will slow down by 2021
  • 19. ARPU will decline in most countries in CEE due to intense price competition but the decline will be slow
  • 20. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 21. Methodology slide 1
  • 22. Methodology slide 2
  • 23. Methodology slide 3
  • 24. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 25. About the authors
  • 26. About Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide, 2015-2021
  • Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by region (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 5: Mobile ARPU (excluding IoT) by region and worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 6: Mobile retail revenue by service type, and ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 7: Mobile retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015-2021
  • Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015-2021
  • Figure 9a: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 9b: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding IoT), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA's share of fixed broadband connections, by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2021
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding IoT), Central and Eastern Europe, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 13a: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 13b: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2021
  • Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2021
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