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モバイルサービスの中東欧市場:2019年~2024年の動向と予測

Mobile Services in Central and Eastern Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 346137
出版日 ページ情報 英文 11 Slides
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モバイルサービスの中東欧市場:2019年~2024年の動向と予測 Mobile Services in Central and Eastern Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024
出版日: 2019年11月18日 ページ情報: 英文 11 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、中東欧のモバイル通信市場について調査分析し、5ヶ年予測のほか、動向、促進要因、予測の前提条件、オペレーター戦略の概要、国別のトピックなど、体系的な情報を提供しています。

エグゼクティブサマリー

世界の動向

  • 世界:モバイルデータ需要が通信の収益成長を促進

地域の動向

  • モバイル端末データ収益の成長は、モバイル音声・モバイルメッセージング収益の減少を上回る
  • モバイル接続の総数は、市場の飽和とマルチSIMプリペイドプランから契約サービスへの移行により、2024年までに減少する
  • 主として市場の飽和により、普及率は横ばいに
  • LTEの拡大とそれに伴うデータ利用の増加に牽引され、モバイルARPUは増加する
  • モバイルARPU・端末収益の見通しは、LTE-Aカバレッジの拡大と契約加入の採用増加からプラスへ

国別の動向

  • チェコ共和国:モバイル市場は比較的競争力が低いが、新しいモバイルオペレーターの導入に伴い、変化する可能性が高い
  • ポーランド:モバイル市場は競争力があり、オペレーターはコンバージドサービスの提供にフォーカス
  • ロシア:モバイル収益は、サービス品質の向上と有利なマクロ経済条件のおかげで、程よい成長
  • トルコ:LTEネットワークカバレッジの拡大によって、モバイルデータ利用が増大し、モバイルARPUの増加につながる

予測手法と前提条件

著者とAnalysys Masonについて

目次

"The majority of the mobile revenue growth in Central and Eastern Europe will come from Russia and Turkey, where LTE network expansion will lead to an increase in mobile data consumption."

This report examines the key trends and drivers, and provides a comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecast for the Central and Eastern European region and for 16 individually modelled countries including the Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and Turkey.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of 206 mobile KPIs for the Central and Eastern European region and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlight similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Countries modelled individually Detailed country commentary
  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Estonia
  • Hungary
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Montenegro
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Serbia
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Turkey
  • Ukraine
  • Czech Republic
  • Poland
  • Russia
  • Turkey

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary
  • 6. Executive summary
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: mobile data demand will drive telecoms revenue growth in most regions
  • 9. Regional trends
  • 10. The growth in the mobile handset data revenue will outstrip the declines in the mobile voice and mobile messaging revenue
  • 11. The total number of mobile connections will decline by 2024 due to market saturation and migration from multi-SIM prepaid plans to contract services
  • 12. Penetration in CEE will plateau, mainly due to market saturation
  • 13. Mobile ARPU will increase in CEE, stimulated by LTE expansions and the associated increase in data usage
  • 14. The outlook for mobile ARPU and handset revenue is positive thanks to increasing LTE-A coverage and the growing adoption of contract subscriptions
  • 15. Country-level trends
  • 16. Czech Republic: the mobile market is relatively uncompetitive but this is likely to change following the introduction of a new mobile operator
  • 17. Poland: the mobile market is competitive; operators are focusing on offering converged services
  • 18. Russia: mobile revenue will grow modestly thanks to enhancements in service quality and favourable macroeconomic conditions
  • 19. Turkey: the expansion of LTE network coverage will lead to higher mobile data usage and, in turn, will help to increase mobile ARPU
  • 20. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 21. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 22. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 23. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 24. About the authors
  • 25. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned26.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 27. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in CEE and the rest of the world, 2014-2024
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 5: Mobile connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 6: Mobile connections by generation, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 7: Mobile ARPU by type, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 8: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 9: Mobile data traffic per connection, Central and Eastern Europe (GB per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 10a: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 10b: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 11a: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 11b: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 12: Mobile ARPU, Czech Republic (CZK per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 13: Mobile connections by type, Czech Republic (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 14: Mobile ARPU, Poland (PLN per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 15: Mobile connections by type, Poland (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 16: Mobile ARPU, Russia (RUB per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 17: Mobile connections by type, Russia (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 18: Mobile ARPU, Turkey (TRY per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 19: Mobile connections by type, Turkey (million), 2014-2024
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