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中東欧におけるモバイルサービスの動向と予測:2015-2020年

Mobile Services in Central and Eastern Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 346137
出版日 ページ情報 英文 34 Slides
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中東欧におけるモバイルサービスの動向と予測:2015-2020年 Mobile Services in Central and Eastern Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
出版日: 2015年12月02日 ページ情報: 英文 34 Slides
概要

中東欧 (CEE) のモバイルサービス収益は、2014年の世界におけるモバイルサービス収益の5.9%を構成し、モバイル接続の7.9%を構成しました。2020年までにCEEの収益シェアは5.1%、接続シェアは6.0%へ縮小すると予測されています。2014年におけるモバイル小売り収益は、地域全体の小売り収益全体の65%を構成し、この比率は2020年まで変化が見られないでしょう。しかし、モバイル小売り収益全体の規模は、486億米ドルから462億米ドルへと、予測期間を通しで減少する見込みです。

当レポートでは、中東欧 (CEE) のモバイルサービス市場における各種動向について調査分析し、地域市場における動向の分析、世界的な背景、地域の分析および4ヶ国についてのコメント、市場専門家による予測などをまとめています。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

世界の動向

  • 新興地域は最も高い収益成長が見込まれるが、小売り収益が最も大きいのは北米
  • モバイル普及率は、SSA、EMAP、およびDVAP地域におけるサービス受け入れに促進され、2020年までに108%へ拡大
  • NA (92%) およびDVAP (5%) においてLTEの接続シェアは最も高くなる一方、SSAは大きく後れを取る (5%)
  • 成熟地域における競争、OTTサービスおよびコンバージドバンドルはARPUを押し下げる圧力を持つ

地域の動向

  • 通信収益は下落が続くものの、モバイル端末データは10.4%のCAGRで成長する見込み
  • マルチSIM統合は多くの諸国においてモバイル普及率が安定または低下する原因となる見込み
  • 4G展開は予測期間中に加速
  • 14ヵ国それぞれのモデル化、ロシアとトルコの合計で地域全体の収益の58%を構成
  • スマートフォン需要は4Gが進んでいない地域でも安定した成長が続く
  • 予測期間中多くの諸国でARPUは着実に下落
  • モバイル収益は端末データ収益が音声・SMS損失を完全には相殺しないため、240万米ドルに下落

各国の動向

  • チェコ共和国:ARPUの下落は大幅に減速、しかし競争は引き続き収益の下落を後押し
  • ポーランド:価格競争は顧客基盤の強化にも関わらず、ARPUを押し下げる圧力を持つ
  • ロシア:市場統合は接続数の減少と競争の激化を後押し
  • トルコ:2014年においてモバイルARPUは規制によって安定を保ち、また4Gの到来はでさらに強化され、収益成長を刺激

予測手法・前提条件

著者・Analysys Mason について

図表リスト

目次

"Over-the-top services remain a key threat to mobile revenue growth in Central and Eastern Europe. Data revenue will grow strongly, but this will be offset by the decline in revenue from traditional services such as SMS and voice."

Mobile services revenue in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) accounted for 5.9% of worldwide mobile services revenue, and 7.9% of mobile connections in 2014. By 2020, we expect CEE's revenue share to shrink to 5.1%, and the connection share to 6.0%. Mobile retail revenue accounted for 65% of the region's total retail revenue in 2014, and this proportion will remain unchanged in 2020. However, total mobile retail revenue will decline during the forecast period, from USD48.6 billion to USD46.2billion.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • worldwide context, regional analysis and commentary on four countries: Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and Turkey
  • forecasting informed by on-the-ground market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions. We also draw upon Analysys Mason's Telecoms Market Matrix, a comprehensive source of trusted quarterly data that sizes European telecoms markets.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Countries modelled individuallyDetailed country commentary

 

  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Estonia
  • Hungary
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Turkey
  • Ukraine

 

  • Czech Republic
  • Poland
  • Russia
  • Turkey

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband1, M2M2
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G (LTE)
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service3, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband1, M2M2
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMS, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

1Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, though not handset-based data.

2M2M connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.

3Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Julia Martusewicz-Kulinska (Senior Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team, contributing mainly to the European Core Forecasts, Telecoms Market Matrix and European Country Reports programmes. She has more than 14 years of research and telecoms industry regulations experience. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, she worked for the Polish national regulatory authority as the head of the Research Division, where she was responsible for telecoms market research, and as the leader of the Telecommunications Market Analysis Department, which was accountable for co-operation between the regulatory authority and the Information Society and Media DG of the European Commission.

Table of Contents

  • 5.Executive Summary
  • 6. Executive Summary
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: Developing regions will have the highest revenue growth, but North America will have the largest retail revenue
  • 9. Worldwide: Mobile penetration will increase to 108% by 2020, driven by service take-up in the SSA, EMAP and DVAP regions
  • 10. Worldwide: LTE's share of connections will be the highest in NA (92%) and DVAP (84%), while SSA will lag behind (5%)
  • 11. Worldwide: Competition in mature regions, OTT services and converged bundles will have a downward pressure on ARPU
  • 12. Regional trends
  • 13. CEE: Telecoms revenue will continue to decline, but mobile handset data will grow at a CAGR of 10.4%
  • 14. CEE: Multiple-SIM consolidation will cause mobile penetration to stabilise or decline in most countries
  • 15. CEE: 4G roll-out will gather pace during the forecast period
  • 16. CEE: 14 countries modelled individually, Russia and Turkey combined account for 58% of the entire region's revenue
  • 17. CEE: Smartphone demand will continue to grow strongly, even in countries where 4G is less advanced
  • 18. CEE: ARPU will decline steadily in most countries during the forecast period
  • 19. CEE: Mobile revenue will drop to USD2.4 million as handset data revenue will not fully offset voice and SMS losses
  • 20. Country-level trends
  • 21. Czech Republic: ARPU decline will significantly slow down, but competition will continue to drive down revenue
  • 22. Poland: Price competition will put downward pressure on ARPU, despite the enrichment of the customer base
  • 23. Russia: Market consolidation will drive a decline in the number of connections and stimulate competition
  • 24. Turkey: Regulation kept mobile ARPU stable in 2014 and 4G's arrival will bolster it further, fuelling revenue growth
  • 25. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 26. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
  • 27. Our forecasts are informed by primary and secondary research for data collection, a rigorous methodology and our analysis of external drivers
  • 28. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities
  • 29. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 30. About the authors
  • 31. About Analysys Mason
  • 32. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 33. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by region, worldwide
  • Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 5: Mobile ARPU by region and worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail mobile revenue by service type and mobile ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 9a: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 9b: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA's share of fixed broadband connections, by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2020
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 13a: Mobile ARPU by country, Central Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 13b: Mobile ARPU by country, Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, CEE, 2010-2020
  • Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, CEE, 2010-2020
  • Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 17: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Czech Republic, 2014-2020
  • Figure 18: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Poland, 2014-2020
  • Figure 19: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Russia, 2014-2020
  • Figure 20: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Turkey, 2014-2020
  • Figure 21: Data, research principles and external factors that inform our forecasting methodology
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