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中東欧におけるモバイルサービスの動向と予測:2017-2022年

Mobile Services in Central and Eastern Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 346137
出版日 ページ情報 英文 11 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=108.42円で換算しております。
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中東欧におけるモバイルサービスの動向と予測:2017-2022年 Mobile Services in Central and Eastern Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023
出版日: 2018年11月26日 ページ情報: 英文 11 Slides
概要

中東欧 (CEE) のモバイル市場は活況が続き、更にデータ主導の傾向が進むと見込まれ、2022年までに全接続の60%を4Gが構成すると予測されています。

当レポートでは、中東欧 (CEE) におけるモバイルサービス市場について調査し、世界、地域および国別の市場分析・5ヵ年予測を提供しています。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

世界の動向

  • サービス収益は予測期間を通して成長を続け、2022年に8,630億米ドルへ達する見込み

地域の動向

  • 従来型サービスの低下にも関わらず、モバイル収益は引き続き拡大
  • モバイル普及率:トルコを除き、CEE地域におけるモバイルSIMの普及レベルは引き続き安定、
  • モバイル接続:4G/5G接続は2G/3Gを置き換えるが、2022年以前にはネットワークデコミッショニングは起こらないと予測
  • スマートフォン・LTE:端末に占めるスマートフォンのシェアはCEEにおいて2022年までに82%へ到達の見込み
  • モバイルブロードバンド:LTEインフラの幅広い展開はモバイルブロードバンドの短期的な成長をサポート
  • ARPU:ARPUは競合価格圧力の低下、およびより高額なデータプランのシェア拡大により安定
  • 世代によるデータ・収益:4G技術の展開はCEEにおけるサービス収益の増加を促進

各国の動向

  • チェコ共和国:収益は引き続き成長するが、2022年の市場は2012年よりも18%小さくなる見込み
  • ポーランド:コンテンツサービスおよび幅広いLTEカバレッジはMNOの端末データ収益拡大を助ける
  • ロシア:国内モバイル市場における競合が激化し、端末ARPUの低下を招く
  • トルコ:4Gカバレッジを巡る競争および高いモバイル端末データサービス需要はARPUの増加を促進

予測手法・前提条件

著者・Analysys Mason について

図表リスト

目次

"Mobile telecoms revenue will continue its recovery over the next few years, driven primarily by handset data growth."

This report examines the key trends and drivers, and provides a comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecast for the Central and Eastern European region and for 16 individually modelled countries including the Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and Turkey.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of 206 mobile KPIs for the Central and Eastern European region and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlight similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Countries modelled individually Detailed country commentary
  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Estonia
  • Hungary
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Turkey
  • Ukraine
  • Czech Republic
  • Poland
  • Russia
  • Turkey

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary
  • 6. Mobile revenue will continue to grow during the next few years, driven mainly by revenue growth from handset data
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: mobile service revenue will continue to increase during the forecast period, and will reach USD867 billion in 2023
  • 9. Regional trends
  • 10. Mobile revenue will continue to increase despite declining traditional services
  • 11. Mobile: the improved LTE-A coverage and an increasing number of mobile contract subscribers will drive mobile ARPU growth
  • 12. Mobile: notable mobile penetration growth is only expected in Turkey, as most of the other countries in the region have already reached saturation
  • 13. Mobile: ARPU will increase in a number of countries in CEE, mainly as a result of increasing migration towards contract and high-value data plans
  • 14. Mobile: declining price pressure and improved LTE/LTE-A coverage will positively affect mobile ARPU
  • 15. Country-level trends
  • 16. Czech Republic: a wave of competition is expected in the mobile market as the regulator seeks to decrease consumer ASPU
  • 17. Poland: operators' key focus will be on network and coverage upgrades
  • 18. Russia: the total mobile telecoms market will increase by 2023 thanks to the strong demand for online content
  • 19. Turkey: inflation will distort revenue trends but strong operator investments in mobile services will drive underlying revenue growth
  • 20. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 21. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 22. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 23. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 24. About the authors
  • 25. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 26. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 27. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 2: Mobile service revenue by location, CEE and worldwide, 2013-2022
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 5: Mobile connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 6: Mobile connections by generation, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 7: Mobile ARPU by type, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 8: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 9: Mobile data traffic per connection, Central and Eastern Europe (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 10: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 11: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 12: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 14: Mobile ARPU, Czech Republic (CZK per month), Mobile
  • Figure 15: Mobile connections by type, Czeck Republic (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 16: Mobile ARPU, Poland (PLN per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 17: Mobile connections by type, Poland (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 18: Mobile ARPU, Russia (RUB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 19: Mobile connections by type, Russia (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 20: Mobile ARPU, Turkey (TRY per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 21: Mobile connections by type, Turkey (million), 2013-2023
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