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中東欧におけるモバイルサービスの動向と予測:2017-2022年

Mobile Services in Central and Eastern Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 346137
出版日 ページ情報 英文 27 Slides
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中東欧におけるモバイルサービスの動向と予測:2017-2022年 Mobile Services in Central and Eastern Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
出版日: 2017年10月19日 ページ情報: 英文 27 Slides
概要

中東欧 (CEE) のモバイル市場は活況が続き、更にデータ主導の傾向が進むと見込まれ、2022年までに全接続の60%を4Gが構成すると予測されています。

当レポートでは、中東欧 (CEE) におけるモバイルサービス市場について調査し、世界、地域および国別の市場分析・5ヵ年予測を提供しています。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

世界の動向

  • サービス収益は予測期間を通して成長を続け、2022年に8,630億米ドルへ達する見込み

地域の動向

  • 従来型サービスの低下にも関わらず、モバイル収益は引き続き拡大
  • モバイル普及率:トルコを除き、CEE地域におけるモバイルSIMの普及レベルは引き続き安定、
  • モバイル接続:4G/5G接続は2G/3Gを置き換えるが、2022年以前にはネットワークデコミッショニングは起こらないと予測
  • スマートフォン・LTE:端末に占めるスマートフォンのシェアはCEEにおいて2022年までに82%へ到達の見込み
  • モバイルブロードバンド:LTEインフラの幅広い展開はモバイルブロードバンドの短期的な成長をサポート
  • ARPU:ARPUは競合価格圧力の低下、およびより高額なデータプランのシェア拡大により安定
  • 世代によるデータ・収益:4G技術の展開はCEEにおけるサービス収益の増加を促進

各国の動向

  • チェコ共和国:収益は引き続き成長するが、2022年の市場は2012年よりも18%小さくなる見込み
  • ポーランド:コンテンツサービスおよび幅広いLTEカバレッジはMNOの端末データ収益拡大を助ける
  • ロシア:国内モバイル市場における競合が激化し、端末ARPUの低下を招く
  • トルコ:4Gカバレッジを巡る競争および高いモバイル端末データサービス需要はARPUの増加を促進

予測手法・前提条件

著者・Analysys Mason について

図表リスト

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目次

"Mobile telecoms revenue in Central and Eastern Europe will continue its recovery over the next few years, driven primarily by growth in handset data."

The Central and Eastern European mobile market continues to flourish and is increasingly driven by data – we expect 4G to comprise 60% of all connections by 2022. We examine key trends and drivers and provide a comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecast for the region and for 14 individually modelled countries in this report.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of 224 mobile KPIs for the Central and Eastern European region and for 14 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlight similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Estonia
  • Hungary
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Turkey
  • Ukraine
  • Czech Republic
  • Poland
  • Russia
  • Turkey

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Simon Lumb(Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing primarily to the ecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Core Data research programmes. Simon holds a BSc in Physics from Durham University, and during his studies conducted research on the collision of galaxies and helped to develop a GPS tracking system for a start-up company.

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary
  • 6. The recovery in telecoms revenue will continue during the next few years, driven by handset data revenue growth
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: Service revenue will continue to increase over the forecast period, reaching USD863 billion in 2022
  • 9. Regional trends
  • 10. Mobile revenue will continue to increase despite declining traditional services
  • 11. Mobile penetration: The level of mobile SIM penetration will remain stable in the CEE region, with the exception of Turkey
  • 12. Mobile connections: 4G/5G connections will displace 2G/3G, but we do not expect network decommissioning before 2022
  • 13. Smartphones and LTE: The smartphone share of handsets in CEE will reach 82% by 2022
  • 14. Mobile broadband: Widespread deployment of LTE infrastructure will support short-term growth of mobile broadband connections
  • 15. ARPU: ARPU will stabilise due to declining competitive price pressure and the increasing take-up of more-expensive data plans
  • 16. Data and revenue by generation: 4G technology roll-outs will drive service revenue increases in CEE
  • 17. Country-level trends
  • 18. Czech Republic: Revenue will grow, but the market will still be 18% smaller in 2022 than it was in 2012
  • 19. Poland: Content services and widespread LTE coverage will help MNOs to increase handset data revenue
  • 20. Russia: Competition in the country's mobile market will increase and lead to a decline in handset ARPU
  • 21. Turkey: The race for 4G coverage and a high mobile handset data service demand will drive an increase in ARPU
  • 22. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 23. About the author
  • 24. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 25. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 26. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in Central and Eastern Europe and worldwide, 2012-2022
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016-2022
  • Figure 5: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016-2022
  • Figure 6: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 7: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 8: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2016 and 2022
  • Figure 9: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 10: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 11: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 12: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 13: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Czech Republic, 2012-2022
  • Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Czech Republic, 2012-2022
  • Figure 15: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Czech Republic
  • Figure 16: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Poland, 2012-2022
  • Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Poland, 2012-2022
  • Figure 18: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Poland
  • Figure 19: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Russia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 20: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Russia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 21: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Russia
  • Figure 22: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Turkey, 2012-2022
  • Figure 23: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Turkey, 2012-2022
  • Figure 24: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Turkey
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