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西欧におけるモバイルサービスの動向と予測:2017-2022年

Mobile Services in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 345545
出版日 ページ情報 英文 28 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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西欧におけるモバイルサービスの動向と予測:2017-2022年 Mobile Services in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
出版日: 2017年10月19日 ページ情報: 英文 28 Slides
概要

西欧のモバイル市場は成熟を続け、ますますデータ中心となりつつあります。2022】年までにモバイル接続の83%が4Gとなる見込みです。

当レポートでは、西欧におけるモバイルサービス市場について取り上げ、世界、地域および国別の市場分析・5ヵ年予測を提供しています。

エグゼクティブサマリー

世界の動向

  • モバイルサービス収益は、予測期間にわたって引き続き成長し、2022年に8,630億米ドルへ達する見込み

地域の動向

  • データ収益は引き続き増加する見込みだが、モバイル収益は従来型サービス収益の低下に促進される見込み
  • 普及率:ユーザー基盤は停滞気味だが、契約中の追加SIMバンドルは下落を抑制する見込み
  • 接続:スペクトル再配分は4Gの成長を助けるが、レガシーネットワークの大規模デコミッショニングは可能性が低い
  • スマートフォンおよびLTE:スマートフォンは2020年までに多くの国で普及率90%を上回る見込み
  • モバイルブロードバンド:スマートフォンのテザリングおよび接続タブレットへの関心の不足は専用データ接続の減少を促進する見込み
  • ARPU:ARPUは多くの国で下落が続くと見込まれ、またEU規制は収益へマイナスの影響を及ぼす見込み
  • 世代別のデータ・収益:無制限料金、ネット中立性回避サービス、およびローミング割引率はデータ利用を促進する見込み

各国の動向

  • フランス:4G普及率の増加はデータ消費を促進し、モバイル小売り収益の下落を減速させる見込み
  • ドイツ:収益は成長するものの、非常にゆっくりとした速度
  • イタリア:Iliadの到来は端末ASPUを低下させる
  • スペイン:コンテンツサービスおよびLTE人口カバー率の拡大は端末データ収益の成長を保つ
  • 英国:ブレグジッドの展望は経済の見通しを不確かなものに

著者および Analysys Mason について

図表リスト

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目次

"Mobile data revenue will continue to increase throughout Western Europe, but overall mobile service revenue will decline over the next 5 years, driven by falling voice revenue."

The Western European mobile market continues to mature and is becoming increasingly data-centric. 83% of mobile connections will be 4G by 2022. We examine key trends and drivers and provide a comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecast for the region and for 16 individually modelled countries in this report.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of 224 mobile KPIs for the Western European region and for sixteen key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlight similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Countries modelled individuallyDetailed country commentary
  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • UK
  • France
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • UK

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Simon Lumb (Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing primarily to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Core Data research programmes. Simon holds a BSc in Physics from Durham University, and during his studies conducted research on the collision of galaxies and helped to develop a GPS tracking system for a start-up company.

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary
  • 6. Revenue trends are improving in many countries, but mobile revenue will continue to decline
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: Mobile service revenue will continue to increase in the forecast period, reaching USD863 billion in 2022
  • 9. Regional trends
  • 10. Data revenue will continue to increase, but mobile revenue will be driven by declining traditional service revenue
  • 11. Penetration: User bases will be stagnant, but additional SIMs bundled in contracts will limit decline
  • 12. Connections: Spectrum refarming will help 4G growth, but large-scale decommissioning of legacy networks is unlikely
  • 13. Smartphones and LTE: Smartphones will exceed 90% penetration in most countries by 2020
  • 14. Mobile broadband: Smartphone tethering and lack of interest in connected tablets will drive decline in dedicated data connections
  • 15. ARPU: ARPU will continue to fall in most countries, and EU regulations will have a negative impact on profitability
  • 16. Data and revenue by generation: Unlimited tariffs, net neutrality-skirting offers, and roaming rate cuts will drive data usage
  • 17. Country-level trends
  • 18. France: Growing 4G penetration will drive data consumption and slow down the decline in mobile retail revenue
  • 19. Germany: Revenue will grow, but at a very slow pace
  • 20. Italy: The arrival of Iliad will drive down handset ASPU
  • 21. Spain: Content services and increasing LTE population coverage will keep handset data revenue growth
  • 22. UK: The prospect of Brexit adds uncertainty to the economic outlook
  • 23. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 24. About the author
  • 25. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 26. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 27. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in Western Europe and worldwide, 2012-2022
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Western Europe, 2016-2022
  • Figure 5: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2016-2022
  • Figure 6: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 7: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 8: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, Western Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 9: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2016 and 2022
  • Figure 10: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, Western Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 11: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 12: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Western Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 13: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, Western Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, France, 2012-2022
  • Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, France, 2012-2022
  • Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, France
  • Figure 17: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Germany, 2012-2022
  • Figure 18: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Germany, 2012-2022
  • Figure 19: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Germany
  • Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Italy, 2012-2022
  • Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Italy, 2012-2022
  • Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Italy
  • Figure 23: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Spain, 2012-2022
  • Figure 24: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Spain, 2012-2022
  • Figure 25: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Spain
  • Figure 26: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, UK, 2012-2022
  • Figure 27: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, UK, 2012-2022
  • Figure 28: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, UK
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