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市場調査レポート

西欧の固定サービス:動向・予測 (2015-2020年)

Fixed Services in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 345374
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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西欧の固定サービス:動向・予測 (2015-2020年) Fixed Services in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
出版日: 2015年11月18日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

固定・モバイルサービスのリテール収益は2020年に向けて、世界の多くの地域で成長を遂げる見通しですが、競合が激化し、規制の厳しい中欧・東欧地域および西欧地域は例外となるでしょう。しかし市場内の統合が同地域の価格競争を若干は緩和させる見通しです。2015年から2020年にかけての固定サービスのリテール収益は、リテール収益全体の約50%を占めると予測されています。

当レポートでは、西欧地域の固定サービスの市場について調査し、世界的動向、西欧地域における固定サービスの接続数・収益の推移と予測、国別の主要動向、技術区分別の5カ年予測などをまとめています。

調査項目

  • 固定接続数
    • 音声・固定ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイアルアップ
    • ナローバンド音声・VoBB
    • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・その他
  • 固定収益
    • サービス・リテール
    • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイアルアップ・BNS
    • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・その他
  • 固定音声トラフィック
    • 発信呼:MoU

調査対象国

  • オーストリア
  • ベルギー
  • デンマーク
  • フィンランド
  • フランス
  • ドイツ
  • ギリシャ
  • アイルランド
  • イタリア
  • オランダ
  • ノルウェー
  • ポルトガル
  • スペイン
  • スウェーデン
  • スイス
  • 英国
目次

"Bundles that include fixed broadband as the core service are driving take-up of IPTV services in Western Europe and are also encouraging the migration of low-value prepaid mobile customers to contracts."

Retail revenue for fixed and mobile services will grow in all regions by 2020 apart from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Western Europe (WE), where markets are highly competitive and strongly regulated. However, in-market consolidation will slightly alleviate price competition in the region. Fixed services retail revenue will account for about 50% of the overall telecoms retail revenue in WE between 2015 and 2020.

This report provides:

  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for Western Europe (WE)
  • worldwide context, regional analysis and commentary on five countries: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom (UK).

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Countries modelled individually

  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • United Kingdom (UK)

Detailed country commentary

  • France
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • UK

DATA COVERAGE

Fixed connectionsFixed revenueFixed voice traffic
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other
  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Martin Scott (Principal Analyst) co-ordinates Analysys Mason's research initiatives related to media, TV, fixed broadband and convergence. He manages the Fixed Broadband and Multi-Play research programme and is a significant contributor to the Future Comms and Media programme. Martin has held numerous positions within Analysys Mason during the last 10 years, including heading the company's Consumer Services, Data and Regional Markets practices. He also launched Analysys Mason's Connected Consumer and Consumer smartphone usage series of research. His primary areas of specialisation include service convergence, OTT video and media, consumer smartphone usage, the bundling and pricing of multi-play services, including quadruple-play bundling, customer satisfaction and consumer-facing marketing strategy.

Julia Martusewicz-Kulinska (Senior Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team, contributing mainly to the European Core Forecasts, Telecoms Market Matrix and European Country Reports programmes. She has more than 14 years of research and telecoms industry regulations experience. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, she worked for the Polish national regulatory authority as the head of the Research Division, where she was responsible for telecoms market research, and as the leader of the Telecommunications Market Analysis Department, which was accountable for co-operation between the regulatory authority and the Information Society and Media DG of the European Commission.

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary
  • 6. Executive summary
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: WE will experience weaker growth, compared with other regions, due to strong market competition
  • 9. Worldwide: FTTH/B connections will increase to 425 million, accounting for 44% of total fixed broadband connections
  • 10. Worldwide: Household penetration will increase from 39% to 48% because of GDP per capita growth and network roll-out
  • 11. Regional trends
  • 12. WE: Telecoms retail revenue will continue to decline, but pay-TV retail revenue will increase moderately
  • 13. WE: The region's technology mix is evolving rapidly as customers look for faster broadband and operators seek to cut costs
  • 14. WE: Fixed broadband penetration will increase across the region, but market characteristics vary in each country
  • 15. WE: Next-generation services will dominate the mobile and fixed broadband markets in Western Europe by 2020
  • 16. WE: Quality of service will be the main differentiator driving market competition in fixed broadband
  • 17. Country-level trends
  • 18. France: Bundled offers are one of operators' key strategies for reducing churn, but broadband ARPU will decline as a result
  • 19. Germany: Bundling will reduce broadband ASPU, but this decline will be limited by operators competing on network quality
  • 20. Italy: Pay-TV content agreements and NGA may make the broadband market more dynamic, but penetration will lag behind
  • 21. Spain: In-market consolidation, fibre deployment and fixed-mobile bundles will make the fixed market very dynamic
  • 22. UK: Bundling will put increased pressure on ASPU, but NGA investments will soften this decline to some extent
  • 23. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 24. We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
  • 25. Our forecasts are informed by primary and secondary research for data collection, a rigorous methodology and our analysis of external drivers
  • 26. A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities
  • 27. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 28. About the authors
  • 29. About Analysys Mason
  • 30. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 31. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by region, worldwide
  • Figure 3: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 4: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, Western Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 8: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Western Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 9a: Residential fixed broadband penetration of households by country, northern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 9b: Residential fixed broadband penetration of households by country, southern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, Western Europe, 2020
  • Figure 11: Fixed penetration rates by service type, WE, 2010-2020
  • Figure 12: Fixed ASPU by service type, WE, 2010-2020
  • Figure 13: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, WE
  • Figure 14: Total fixed retail revenue, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue and CAGR, France, 2014-2020
  • Figure 15: Total fixed retail revenue, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue and CAGR, Germany, 2014-2020
  • Figure 16: Total fixed retail revenue, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue and CAGR, Italy, 2014-2020
  • Figure 17: Total fixed retail revenue, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue and CAGR, Spain, 2014-2020
  • Figure 18: Total fixed retail revenue, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue and CAGR, UK, 2014-2020
  • Figure 19: Data, research principles and external factors that inform our forecasting methodology
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