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中東・北アフリカにおけるモバイルサービスの動向と予測:2016年〜2021年

Mobile Services in the Middle East and North Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 345106
出版日 ページ情報 英文 32 Slides
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中東・北アフリカにおけるモバイルサービスの動向と予測:2016年〜2021年 Mobile Services in the Middle East and North Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日: 2017年02月17日 ページ情報: 英文 32 Slides
概要

中東・北アフリカ (MENA) におけるモバイル収益の成長は、他の地域と比べると、比較的強い傾向が見られます。主な収益源は、携帯電話データ・固定ブロードバンドサービスの見込みです。

当レポートでは、中東・北アフリカ (MENA) におけるモバイルサービス市場について調査分析し、動向分析と5ヶ年予測、地域別分析、国別分析など、体系的な情報を提供しています。

エグゼクティブサマリー

世界の動向

  • 世界の収益は、ネットワーク開始のインフラ投資に牽引されて、モバイル・固定セグメントで増加
  • 世界の普及率は、新興アジア太平洋地域 (EMAP) ・サハラ以南アフリカ (SSA) におけるモバイルへの需要・急速な取り込みによって、2021年までに105%まで増加
  • 世界の携帯電話の69%を占めるのがスマートフォンで、取り込みが最も高いのは北米 (NA) で95%、次いで西欧 (WE) の93%
  • モバイルARPU:OTTサービスによる競争の激化と置き換えが、引き続きARPUを押し下げる

地域別動向

  • モバイル・固定データサービスによる収益成長にもかかわらず、引き続きモバイル音声収益が優勢
  • 成熟市場やSIM適用によって、新規のモバイル接続数は減少
  • 2021年までに、全接続数の44.2%が3Gになる一方で、LTEがモバイルSIM (M2Mを除く) の約4分の1を占める
  • 地理的範囲:2021年には、12通信市場がMENAにおける通信サービス収益の90.7%を占める
  • 今後5年間で、イスラエルはスマートフォンの普及率が最も高くなり、UAEは4G/5Gの取り込み率で先導する
  • モバイルARPU:データの増加が音声・メッセージングの減少を相殺し、ARPUの減少率を減らす
  • LTEのサービスエリア拡大によるコンテンツ・OTTサービス利用の増加が、携帯電話データの収益成長を促進

国別動向

  • オマーン:市場浸透が加入者の成長を抑制する一方で、データサービスへの需要が収益促進を助ける
  • カタール:移民が接続数の増加を維持する一方で、契約・4Gセグメントが価値成長を支える
  • サウジアラビア:規制措置や市場競争の激化から、市場成長の見通しが悪化している

予測手法と前提条件

著者・Analysys Masonについて

図表

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目次

"The number of 3G connections will continue to increase in MENA and will represent 44.2% of the region's connections by 2021."

Mobile revenue growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will be relatively strong compared to that in other regions. Mobile handset data and fixed broadband services will be the main source of revenue growth in the region.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for MENA
  • worldwide context, regional analysis and commentary
  • forecasts that are informed by on-the-ground market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions, and external interviews.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Countries modelled individuallyDetailed country commentary
  • Algeria
  • Egypt
  • Iran
  • Iraq
  • Israel
  • Kuwait
  • Morocco
  • Oman
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Tunisia
  • United Arab Emirates (UAE)
  • Oman
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • UAE

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Karim Yaici (Senior Analyst) works on Analysys Mason's The Middle East and Africa regional research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include operators' digital strategies, new telecoms opportunities and challenges and consumer trends in MEA. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Karim was an associate analyst at Ovum, where he authored reports on mobile accessories and mobile applications. Prior to that, he worked as a research engineer at Vodafone. Karim holds an MSc in Information Systems Management and a PhD in human-computer interaction.

Lee Giet (Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing mainly to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Forecasts research programmes. Lee holds a BSc in Physics from University College London (UCL).

Table of Contents

  • 6. Executive summary
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Revenue worldwide will increase in the mobile and fixed segments driven by infrastructure investments in network roll-out
  • 9. Demand for, and the fast pace of take-up of, mobile in EMAP and SSA will boost penetration to 105% worldwide by 2021
  • 10. Smartphones will account for 69% of handsets worldwide and take-up will be highest in NA (95%) and WE (93%)
  • 11. Mobile ARPU: The high level of competition and substitution by OTT services will continue to put downward pressure on ARPU
  • 12. Regional trends
  • 13. Mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth in the region, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate
  • 14. Maturing markets and enforced SIM registration have already led to a slow down in the number of new mobile connections
  • 15. 44.2% of all connections will be 3G by 2021, while LTE will account for nearly a quarter of mobile SIMs (excluding M2M)
  • 16. Geographical coverage: We model twelve telecoms markets, which will account for 90.7% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2021
  • 17. Israel will have the highest smartphone penetration and UAEwill lead 4G/5G take-up rates over the next 5years
  • 18. Mobile ARPU: Growth in data will offset the decline from voice and messaging, thereby lessening the rate of decline of ARPU
  • 19. Increasing content and OTT service usage due to wide LTE coverage will boost handset data revenue growth
  • 20. Country-level trends
  • 21. Oman: Market saturation will subdue subscriber growth,while demand for data services will help boost revenue
  • 22. Qatar: Migrants will sustain connections growth, whilecontract and 4G segments will support value growth
  • 23. Saudi Arabia: Regulatory measures and intensified market competition, are weighing down market growth prospects
  • 24. UAE: Smartphone penetration and data usage will driverevenue growth, helping to slow ARPU erosion
  • 25. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 26. Methodology slide 1
  • 27. Methodology slide 2
  • 28. Methodology slide 3
  • 29. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 30. About the authors
  • 31. About Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, worldwide, -2021
  • Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), worldwide, -2021
  • Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 5: Mobile ARPU (excluding IoT) by region and worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2015-2021
  • Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, -2021
  • Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA penetration of fixed broadband connections by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2021
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G share of total connections (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Middle East and North Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 17: Mobile service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Oman, 2015-2021
  • Figure 18: Mobile service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Qatar, 2015-2021
  • Figure 19: Mobile service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Saudi Arabia, -2021
  • Figure 20: Mobile service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, UAE, 2015-2021
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