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市場調査レポート

中東・北アフリカ地域のモバイルサービス:動向・予測 (2015-2020年)

Mobile Services in the Middle East and North Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 345106
出版日 ページ情報 英文 34 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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中東・北アフリカ地域のモバイルサービス:動向・予測 (2015-2020年) Mobile Services in the Middle East and North Africa: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
出版日: 2015年11月13日 ページ情報: 英文 34 Slides
概要

中東・北アフリカ地域のモバイルサービス市場では、スマートフォンの普及率の上昇や4G (LTE) ネットワークの持続的拡張などの要因から、端末データサービスが主要な収益成長の推進因子となる見通しです。

当レポートでは、中東・北アフリカ地域のモバイルサービス市場について調査し、世界的動向、中東・北アフリカ地域におけるモバイルサービスの総収益の推移と予測、3G・LTEへの移行動向、スマートフォン普及率、国別の主要動向、接続数・収益・ARPU・トラフィックの5カ年予測などをまとめています。

調査項目

  • モバイル接続数
    • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・M2M
    • プリペイド・契約ベース
    • 2G・3G・4G (LTE)
    • スマートフォン・非スマートフォン
  • モバイル収益
    • サービス・リテール
    • プリペイド・契約ベース
    • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・M2M
    • 端末音声・メッセージング・データ
  • モバイルARPU
    • SIM端末
    • プリペイド・契約ベース
    • 端末音声・データ
  • 音声トラフィック
    • 発信時間・MoU

調査対象国

  • アルジェリア
  • エジプト
  • イラク
  • イスラエル
  • クウェート
  • モロッコ
  • オマーン
  • カタール
  • チュニジア
  • UAE
目次

"Revenue growth in MENA will increasingly come from high-value customers, with operators placing greater importance on the retention of these high-value customers and the monetisation of mobile data services."

Handset data services will be the main driver of revenue growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), supported by increased smartphone penetration and the continued expansion of 4G (LTE) networks. The number of 3G subscriptions will overtake 2G to become the dominant network technology in the region overall in 2017. However, 2G will retain its position in countries which have only recently launched 3G and have a low GDP per capita. In this report, we model eleven telecoms markets, which will account for about 68% of MENA's telecoms service revenue in 2020.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
  • worldwide context and specific country commentary for four key countries: Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE
  • forecasting informed by robust historical data, as well as our unique, in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous methodology (including the reconciliation of different sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).

Geographical coverage

Countries modelled individually Detailed country commentary
  • Algeria
  • Egypt
  • Iraq
  • Israel
  • Kuwait
  • Morocco
  • Oman
  • Qatar
  • Tunisia
  • United Arab Emirates

  • Oman
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • United Arab Emirates

Data coverage

Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband1, M2M2
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G (LTE)
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Mobile revenue
  • Service3, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband1, M2M2
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Mobile ARPU
  • SIMS, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Table of Contents

  • 5.Executive summary
  • 6.Executive summary
  • 7.Worldwide trends
  • 8.Worldwide: Developing regions will have highest revenue growth, but NA will be largest retail revenue contributor by 2020
  • 9.Worldwide: SIM penetration will increase to 108% by 2020, driven by service take-up in SSA, EMAP and DVAP
  • 10.Worldwide: LTE's share of connections will be the highest in NA (92%) and DVAP (84%), while SSA will trail behind (5%)
  • 11.Worldwide: OTT services and converged bundle services will have a downward pressure on ARPU
  • 12.Regional trends
  • 13.MENA: The total mobile service revenue will grow at the CAGR 1.6% to USD64 billion in 2020
  • 14.MENA: Maturing markets and diminishing multiple-SIM ownership will lead to slower growth in number of connections
  • 15.MENA: More than half of all connections will be 3G by 2020, while LTE will account for 21.5% of mobile SIMS (excluding M2M)
  • 16.MENA: We model eleven telecoms markets, which will account for about 68% of MENA's telecoms service revenue in 2020
  • 17.MENA: Israel will have the highest smartphone penetration, but the UAE will lead LTE take-up rates
  • 18.MENA: Intensified competition will drive down ARPU, but spending on non-voice services will increase
  • 19.MENA: Mobile handset data revenue will grow by USD5.6 billion between 2014 and 2020 at a 8.7% CAGR
  • 20.Country-level trends
  • 21.Oman: MVNOs are addressing demand for low-cost international calling and expanding their portfolios with affordable mobile data
  • 22.Qatar: Demand from migrants will sustain connections growth, while contract and 4G segments will support value growth
  • 23.Saudi Arabia: Regulatory measures, MVNOs and Mobily's performance are suppressing market growth prospects
  • 24.UAE: Smartphone penetration and data usage will drive mobile revenue growth, helping to slow ARPU erosion through 2020
  • 25.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 26.We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
  • 27.We use a vast variety of primary and secondary research for data collection
  • 28.A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities
  • 29.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 30.About the authors
  • 31.About Analysys Mason
  • 32.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 33.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), MENA, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by region, worldwide
  • Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 5: Mobile ARPU by region and worldwide, 2010-2020
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail mobile revenue by service type and mobile ARPU, Middle East and North Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2014-2020
  • Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2014-2020
  • Figure 9: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2020
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, MENA, 2010-2020
  • Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, MENA, 2010-2020
  • Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, MENA
  • Figure 17: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Oman, 2014-2020
  • Figure 18: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Qatar, 2014-2020
  • Figure 19: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Saudi Arabia, 2014-2020
  • Figure 20: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, UAE, 2014-2020
  • Figure 21: Data, research principles and external factors that inform our forecasting methodology
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