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FTTxのカバレッジとCapexの世界市場:2018年~2025年の動向と予測

FTTx Coverage and Capex: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2018-2025

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 339715
出版日 ページ情報 英文 17 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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FTTxのカバレッジとCapexの世界市場:2018年~2025年の動向と予測 FTTx Coverage and Capex: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2018-2025
出版日: 2019年01月23日 ページ情報: 英文 17 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、世界のFTTx情勢について調査分析し、8地域・64市場におけるFTTxとケーブル (DOCSIS3.0/3.1) の5ヶ年予測、FTTxのネットワークロールアウトの主要動向・促進要因・阻害要因、Capexのレベル評価について、体系的な情報を提供しています。

世界の動向

  • 世界の次世代アクセス (NGA) カバレッジには、依然として成長可能性
  • FTTx Capexは、減少傾向
  • 一部の新興市場では、NGAカバレッジが予想を下回る
  • NGAカバレッジの拡大では、インド、インドネシア、ブラジルがリーダーに
  • FTTPの新規参入の可能性は、地域によって異なる
  • 多くの先進市場で、FTTCからFTTPへの移行が促進
  • FTTPの接続コストは、市場によって大きな違いがある
  • 建物の種類、規制、ビデオサービス要件は、すべてのFTTP接続コストに影響する

西欧

  • 西欧:FTTP投資への強い関心が、継続的な高支出に反映される

中欧・東欧

  • 中欧・東欧:NGAインフラへの投資

中東・アフリカ

  • 中東・アフリカ:FTTPへの投資は湾岸地域市場で継続、エジプトがリード

サハラ以南のアフリカ

  • サハラ以南のアフリカ:値ごろ感とインフラ可用性に関する課題が、FTTPの展開数を制限

アジア太平洋地域の新興国

  • 中国では、次世代PON FTTPネットワークへのアップグレードが一般になり、固定ブロードバンドの速度が急増
  • アジア太平洋地域の新興国:重要なNGAカバレッジの成長機会

アジア太平洋地域の先進国

  • アジア太平洋地域の先進国:既存のファイバー展開へのアップグレードがますます重要に

北米

  • 北米:FTTPは、米国のオペレーターが投資する多くの技術の1つに過ぎない

ラテンアメリカ

  • ラテンアメリカ:ブラジルは、大幅なFTTP投資の増加

予測手法と前提条件

著者・Analysys Masonについて

目次

"There is significant investment occurring in non-incumbent FTTP networks in Western Europe, but this is not mirrored in all developed markets."

The overall wireline next-generation access (NGA) coverage growth will slow in some markets, but there are still significant opportunities for new infrastructure players to spend on FTTx. There is also considerable potential for further investment in fibre in many emerging markets.

This report provides:

  • 7-year forecasts for flavours of FTTx and cable (DOCSIS3.0/3.1) coverage in 8 regions and 64 individual markets
  • analysis of the key trends, drivers and inhibitors of network roll-out of FTTx
  • an assessment of the level of capital expenditure out to 2025.

KEY METRICS:

  • Coverage (premises passed)
  • Capex (split into network and connection)
  • Split by architecture/technology:
    • FTTC/VDSL or G.fast
    • FTTB/VDSL or G.fast
    • FTTB/LAN
    • FTTP (split into incumbent and alternative operator)
    • cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1 (note: capex is not provided for cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1).

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE:

The report and accompanying data annex provide forecasts for 8 regions and 64 individual countries.

RegionCountries
Western EuropeAustria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK.
Central and Eastern EuropeBulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine.
Middle East and North AfricaIsrael, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE.
Sub-Saharan AfricaGhana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa.
Emerging Asia-PacificChina, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.
Developed Asia-PacificAustralia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan.
North AmericaCanada, USA.
Latin AmericaArgentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.

Table of Contents

  • 5.Worldwide trends
  • 6.There is still potential for growth in the global NGA coverage; this will be driven by NGA expansion in some emerging markets
  • 7.FTTx capex will follow a downward trend over the forecast period driven by changing regional splits
  • 8.Some emerging markets have lower-than-expected NGA coverage given the average income levels
  • 9.India, Indonesia and Brazil will be leaders in terms of NGA coverage growth over the forecast period
  • 10.The potential for new FTTP entrants differs according to the region
  • 11.There is growing momentum behind FTTC-to-FTTP migration in many developed markets
  • 12.There is a significant variation in FTTP connection costs depending on the market
  • 13.Building types, regulation and video service requirements will all influence FTTP connection costs
  • 14.Western Europe
  • 15.There is strong interest in FTTP investment across Western Europe and this is reflected in continued high spending
  • 16.Central and Eastern Europe
  • 17.Investment in NGA infrastructure in CEE is focused on rural coverage expansion and the win-back strategies of incumbents in urban areas
  • 18.Middle East and North Africa
  • 19.Investment in FTTP will continue in markets in the Gulf region, and Egypt is leading the way for fibre roll-outs in the North African region
  • 20.Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 21.Challenges related to affordability and infrastructure availability will limit the number of FTTP deployments in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 22.Emerging Asia-Pacific
  • 23.Upgrades to next-generation PON FTTP networks are becoming more commonplace in China and fixed broadband speeds are rapidly increasing
  • 24.There are still opportunities for significant NGA coverage growth in EMAP, particularly in India
  • 25.Developed Asia-Pacific
  • 26.Upgrades to existing fibre deployments are becoming more important in DVAP
  • 27.North America
  • 28.FTTP is merely one of a number of technologies in which US operators are investing
  • 29.LatinAmerica
  • 30.There is significant growth in FTTP investments from incumbents, MNOs and smaller players in Brazil
  • 31.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 32.Geographical scope: forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 regions
  • 33.Definitions
  • 34.We take baseline costs for each technology and then apply several context-specific variables to determine total capex
  • 35.Top-level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx technologies: basic topologies
  • 36.About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 37.About the author
  • 38.Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 39.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 40.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: NGA coverage by technology, worldwide, 2014--2025
  • Figure 2: FTTx capex, by worldwide region, 2014--2025
  • Figure 3: NGA coverage at the end of 2018 and GDP per capita (PPP), emerging markets
  • Figure 4: NGA coverage, selected emerging markets, 2018 and 2025
  • Figure 5: Non-incumbent FTTP coverage, selected Western European countries, 2018 and 2025
  • Figure 6: FTTC premises passed coverage by selected market, 2017--2025
  • Figure 7: FTTx connection capex total and as a proportion of total FTTx capex, worldwide, 2018--2025
  • Figure 8: FTTP connection costs by selected operator
  • Figure 9: NGA coverage by technology, Western Europe, 2016--2025
  • Figure 10: FTTx capex by technology, Western Europe, 2016--2025
  • Figure 11: NGA coverage by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016--2025
  • Figure 12: FTTx capex by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016--2025
  • Figure 13: NGA coverage by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2016--2025
  • Figure 14: FTTx capex by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2016--2025
  • Figure 15: NGA coverage by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016--2025
  • Figure 16: FTTx capex by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016--2025
  • Figure 17: NGA coverage by technology, China, 2016--2025
  • Figure 18: FTTx capex by technology, China, 2016--2025
  • Figure 19: NGA coverage by technology, emerging Asia--Pacific excluding China, 2016--2025
  • Figure 20: FTTx capex by technology, emerging Asia--Pacific excluding China, 2016--2025
  • Figure 21: NGA coverage by technology, developed Asia--Pacific, 2016--2025
  • Figure 22: FTTx capex by technology, developed Asia--Pacific, 2016--2025
  • Figure 23: NGA coverage by technology, North America, 2016--2025
  • Figure 24: FTTx capex by technology, North America, 2016--2025
  • Figure 25: NGA coverage by technology, Latin America, 2016--2025
  • Figure 26: FTTx capex by technology, Latin America, 2016--2025
  • Figure 27: Countries covered in this report, by region
  • Figure 28: Definitions used in this report
  • Figure 29: Capex model outline
  • Figure 30: Basic overview of FTTx network topologies and elements
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