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FTTxのサービスエリア、転換率、Capex:世界市場の動向と予測

FTTx Coverage, Conversion and Capex: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 339715
出版日 ページ情報 英文 55 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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FTTxのサービスエリア、転換率、Capex:世界市場の動向と予測 FTTx Coverage, Conversion and Capex: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日: 2016年12月01日 ページ情報: 英文 55 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、世界のFTTx市場について調査分析し、8地域・64市場におけるFTTxとケーブルブロードバンドの5ヶ年予測、FTTxの主要動向・促進要因・阻害要因、Capexのレベル分析など、体系的な情報を提供しています。

エグゼクティブサマリー

世界市場の動向

  • サービスエリアの拡大が鈍化、転換率は安定
  • 次世代アクセス (NGA) が13億ヶ所で利用可能に
  • FTTPのアベイラビリティが新興市場でますます優勢に
  • 世界のCapexは第2のインフラへシフトを開始
  • NGA接続のアベイラビリティが利用可能な世帯数に急速に近付いている
  • コスト:中所得国のFTTPの価値基準は一般的に高い
  • FTTCは投資の新局面に直面し、短期・長期的な戦術バランスを取る必要がある
  • 北米では特に、有線NGAの代替として「5G」固定無線アクセスに関心がある

西欧

  • サービスエリアは目標より12%下回る
  • 50%以上がNGA接続になるが、すべてが100Mbpsになるわけではない

中欧・東欧

  • 良好で安価なブロードバンドだが、農村部では不十分
  • FMCサービス

中東・アフリカ

  • GCC市場外に投資するインセンティブはほとんどない
  • 競争の欠如がファイバーブロードバンド価格を高額に

サハラ以南のアフリカ

  • ファイバーブロードバンドのコストが低所得地域には不均衡なほど高い
  • サービスはあまりにも初期段階

中国

  • 投資の焦点はネットワークのアップグレードや競争の激しい追加インフラへ
  • マルチインフラの競争とFMCサービスが価格を下げる

アジア太平洋地域の先進国

  • 投資の焦点はファイバーブロードバンドの新設やアップグレードへ
  • トラフィックの急増がさらなる投資を促進

北米

  • 投資レベルが低い
  • 米国のFTTxへの転換率は停滞、カナダでは規制当局が介入

ラテンアメリカ

  • ケーブルオペレーターが十分に定着
  • 転換率はかなり控えめ

予測手法と前提条件

著者・Analysys Masonについて

図表

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目次

"The number of availabile NGA connections is fast approaching the number of households worldwide that could afford such connections."

The number of premises passed by next-generation access (NGA) is fast approaching the number of premises worldwide that could afford such a connection. New competing infrastructures are emerging to meet demand, often from households that have hitherto relied only on mobile. This report analyses and forecasts coverage (premises passed), conversion (active connections as a percentage of premises passed) and capex for FTTx architecture and technologies during 2012-2021.

This report provides:

  • 5-year forecasts for flavours of FTTx and cable broadband in eight regions and in 64 individual markets
  • analysis of the key trends, drivers and inhibitors of network roll-out and of subscriber take-up of FTTx
  • an assessment of the level of capital expenditure out to 2021.

KEY METRICS

  • Coverage (premises passed)
  • Conversion (premises with active connections as a percentage of premises passed)
  • Capex (split into network and connection)

Split by architecture/technology:

  • FTTC/VDSL or G.fast
  • FTTB/VDSL or G.fast
  • FTTB/LAN
  • FTTP (split into incumbent and alternative operator)
  • cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

RegionCountries
Western EuropeAustria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK.
Central and Eastern EuropeBulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine.
Middle East and North AfricaIsrael, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE.
Sub-Saharan AfricaGhana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa.
EmergingAsia-PacificChina, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.
DevelopedAsia-PacificAustralia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan.
North AmericaCanada, USA.
Latin AmericaArgentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.

The report and accompanying data annex provide forecasts for eight regions and 64 individual countries.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Rupert Wood (Research Director) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason's Network Investment Strategies and Traffic Forecasts research programmes. His primary areas of specialisation include next-generation networks, long-term industry strategy and forecasting the dynamics of convergence and substitution across fixed and mobile platforms. Rupert regularly contributes to the international press on a wide range of telecoms subjects and has been quoted by The Times, The Economist, Business Week, Telecommunications Online and La Tribune. Rupert has a PhD from the University of Cambridge, where he was a Lecturer before joining Analysys Mason.

Table of Contents

  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: Coverage growth will slow by 2021, but conversion will continue to grow steadily
  • 9. NGA will be available to 1.3 billion premises worldwide by 2021
  • 10. FTTP availability is increasingly dominated by emerging markets
  • 11. Global capex will start to shift to second infrastructures and to upgrades
  • 12. The availability of an NGA connection is fast approaching the number of households that could afford such a connection
  • 13. The cost:value metrics of FTTP for mid-income countries are generally better than for richer countries
  • 14. FTTC incumbents facing a new phase of investment have to balance short-term tactics and long-term
  • 15. There is interest, particularly in North America, in ‘5G' fixed wireless access as an alternative to wireline NGA
  • 16. Western Europe
  • 17. Western Europe: Coverage will fall 12% short of the 100% target set by the European Digital Agenda by the end of 2021
  • 18. Western Europe: Over 50% of Western European premises will have an NGA connection by 2020, but not all will be 100Mbps
  • 19. Central and Eastern Europe
  • 20. Central and Eastern Europe: CEE has good, inexpensive broadband, but rural areas are generally underserved
  • 21. Central and Eastern Europe: Fixed-mobile convergence may stimulate take-up
  • 22. Middle East and North Africa
  • 23. Middle East and North Africa: There is little incentive to invest outside the GCC markets
  • 24. Middle East and North Africa: Lack of competition keeps fibre broadband prices high
  • 25. Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 26. Sub-Saharan Africa: The costs of fibre-based broadband are disproportionately high for a low-income region
  • 27. Sub-Saharan Africa: Services are too embryonic for conversion rates to be meaningful
  • 28. China
  • 29. China: The focus of investment has switched to network upgrades and additional competitive infrastructures
  • 30. China: Multi-infrastructure competition and FMC is driving prices down and take-up has boomed
  • 31. Rest of emerging Asia-Pacific
  • 32. Rest of emerging Asia-Pacific: Where it exists, state-managed roll-out of fixed broadband has led to impressive results
  • 33. Rest of emerging Asia-Pacific: Where investment has occurred, take-up rates have the potential to be very good
  • 34. Developed Asia-Pacific
  • 35. Developed Asia-Pacific: Investment is now focused on new and upgraded fibre infrastructures
  • 36. Developed Asia-Pacific: Strong traffic growth and continued take-up spur the case for further investment
  • 37. North America
  • 38. North America: Investment levels are weak in North America
  • 39. North America: Unless prices fall, US conversion rates for FTTx will stagnate; in Canada, the regulator has intervened
  • 40. Latin America
  • 41. Latin America: Cable operators are already well entrenched in the main addressable markets
  • 42. Latin America: Conversion rates remain rather subdued
  • 43. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 44. Geographical scope: Forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 regions
  • 45. Definitions
  • 46. We take baseline costs for each technology and then apply several context-specific variables to determine total capex
  • 47. Top-level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx technologies: basic topologies
  • 48. Baseline unit cost assumptions for FTTC/VDSL and FTTB/dp/VDSL
  • 49. Baseline unit cost assumptions for FTTP/GPON
  • 50. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 51. About the authors
  • 52. About Analysys Mason
  • 53. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 54. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: NGA coverage by technology, worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Fixed broadband active connections, by technology, and NGA share of connections worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 3: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTX, worldwide, 2011-2021
  • Figure 4: NGA coverage by region, 2013-2021
  • Figure 5: NGA subscriptions by region, 2013-2021
  • Figure 6: NGA subscriptions as a proportion of premises passed, by region, 2013-2021
  • Figure 7: FTTP coverage by region, 2013-2021
  • Figure 8: FTTP subscriptions by region, 2013-2021
  • Figure 9: FTTP subscriptions as a proportion of premises passed, by region, 2013-2021
  • Figure 10: FTTx capex, by worldwide region, 2013-2021
  • Figure 11: NGA affordability, availability and adoption, worldwide, 2013-2021
  • Figure 12: Benchmark cost per premises passed, FTTP deployments worldwide
  • Figure 13: NGA coverage by technology, Western Europe, 2014-2021
  • Figure 14: FTTx capex by technology, Western Europe, 2014-2021
  • Figure 15: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Western Europe, 2014-2021
  • Figure 16: Active connections per premises, by technology, Western Europe, 2014-2021
  • Figure 17: NGA coverage by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2021
  • Figure 18: FTTx capex by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2021
  • Figure 19: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2021
  • Figure 20: Active connections per premises, by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2021
  • Figure 21: NGA coverage by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2014-2021
  • Figure 22: FTTx capex by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2014-2021
  • Figure 23: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Middle East and North Africa, 2014-2021
  • Figure 24: Active connections per premises, by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2014-2021
  • Figure 25: NGA coverage by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014-2021
  • Figure 26: FTTx capex by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014-2021
  • Figure 27: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Middle East and North Africa, 2014-2021
  • Figure 28: Active connections per premises, by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2014-2021
  • Figure 29: NGA coverage by technology, China, 2014-2021
  • Figure 30: FTTx capex by technology, China, 2014-2021
  • Figure 31: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, China, 2014-2021
  • Figure 32: Active connections per premises, by technology, China, 2014-2021
  • Figure 33: NGA coverage by technology, rest of emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
  • Figure 34: FTTx capex by technology, rest of emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
  • Figure 35: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, rest of emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
  • Figure 36: Active connections per premises, by technology, rest of emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
  • Figure 37: NGA coverage by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
  • Figure 38: FTTx capex by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
  • Figure 39: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
  • Figure 40: Active connections per premises, by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
  • Figure 41: NGA coverage by technology, North America, 2014-2021
  • Figure 42: FTTx capex by technology, North America, 2014-2021
  • Figure 43: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, North America, 2014-2021
  • Figure 44: Active connections per premises, by technology, North America, 2014-2021
  • Figure 45: NGA coverage by technology, Latin America, 2014-2021
  • Figure 46: FTTx capex by technology, Latin America, 2014-2021
  • Figure 47: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, Latin America, 2014-2021
  • Figure 48: Active connections per premises, by technology, Latin America, 2014-2021
  • Figure 49: Countries covered in this report, by region
  • Figure 50: Definitions used in this report
  • Figure 51: capex model outline
  • Figure 52: Basic overview of FTTx network topologies and elements
  • Figure 53: Baseline capital unit cost assumptions, FTTC/VDSL and FTTB/VDSL
  • Figure 54: Baseline capital unit cost assumptions, FTTH/GPON
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