"The FTTx landscape is changing as sizeable roll-outs take place in important markets and new infrastructure players enter the market."
Interest in FTTx deployments remains strong - roll-outs are taking place in more markets and operators are considering how to expand and/or upgrade their initial deployments. This report analyses the global trends in FTTx coverage and capex.
This report provides:
- 5-year forecasts for flavours of FTTx and cable (DOCSIS3.0/3.1) coverage in 8 regions and 64 individual markets
- analysis of the key trends, drivers and inhibitors of network roll-out of FTTx
- an assessment of the level of capital expenditure out to 2022.
- Coverage (premises passed)
- Capex (split into network and connection)
- Split by architecture/technology:
- FTTC/VDSL or G.fast
- FTTB/VDSL or G.fast
- FTTP (split into incumbent and alternative operator)
- cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1.
|Western Europe||Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK.
|Central and Eastern Europe||Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine.
|Middle East and North Africa||Israel, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE.
|Sub-Saharan Africa||Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa.
|Emerging Asia-Pacific||China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.
|Developed Asia-Pacific||Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan.
|North America||Canada, USA.
|Latin America||Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR:
Stephen Wilson (Principal Analyst) works on our Network Investment Strategies and Network Traffic research programmes. His research covers the implications for different stakeholders of new wireless and fixed technologies. He is based in Analysys Mason's Singapore office, from where he closely follows market developments in the Asia-Pacific region. Stephen has more than 8 years of experience in the telecoms sector and is a graduate in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from St Catherine's College, Oxford University.
Table of Contents
- 6.Worldwide trends
- 7.NGA coverage increases are slowing and global FTTx capex has peaked
- 8.Benchmarks suggest that an operator can cover a maximum of 25% of a country's premises with FTTP in a single year
- 9.FTTx coverage is above 90% in some developed markets and most others will have achieved this coverage level by 2022
- 10.FTTP costs per home passed vary considerably across Europe driven by a number of critical variables
- 11.Incumbent FTTP coverage and coverage from other FTTP players are closely correlated
- 12.The availability of fibre availability varies between emerging markets and coverage is particularly low in the Indian sub-continent and North Africa
- 13.VDSL35b has attracted considerable interest from European operators and is eating into the potential market for G.fast
- 14.DOCSIS3.1 upgrades can be remarkably low-cost for cable operators and are beginning to increase in number
- 15.Western Europe
- 16.Western Europe: A variety of FTTP investment models are emerging
- 17.Central and Eastern Europe
- 18.Central and Eastern Europe: Increases in NGA coverage will be relatively modest during the forecast period
- 19.Middle East and North Africa
- 20.Middle East and North Africa: Many countries in the region will continue to lack significant NGA coverage in 2022
- 21.Sub-Saharan Africa
- 22.Sub-Saharan Africa: Affordability will constrain NGA roll-outs to less than 5% of premises in 2022
- 23.China and rest of emerging Asia-Pacific
- 24.China: Attention is beginning to shift to next-generation PON upgrades
- 25.Rest of emerging Asia-Pacific: Operators have an opportunity to increase FTTx coverage in the Indian sub-continent
- 26.Developed Asia-Pacific
- 27.Developed Asia-Pacific: Government-backed NGA roll-outs in Australia and New Zealand continue to make progress
- 28.North America
- 29.North America: Canada's operators are investing in extending FTTP coverage
- 30.Latin America
- 31.Latin America: Copper-based NGA technologies have gained some traction in Latin America
- 32.Forecast methodology and assumptions
- 33.Geographical scope: Forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 regions
- 35.We take baseline costs for each technology and then apply several context-specific variables to determine total capex
- 36.Top-level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx technologies: basic topologies
- 37.Baseline unit cost assumptions for FTTC/VDSL and FTTB/dp/VDSL
- 38.Baseline unit cost assumptions for FTTP/GPON
- 39.About the authors and Analysys Mason
- 40.About the authors
- 41.About Analysys Mason
- 42.Research from Analysys Mason
- 43.Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of figures
- Figure 1: NGA coverage by technology, worldwide, 2012-2022
- Figure 2: NGA coverage by region, 2014-2022
- Figure 3: FTTx capex, by worldwide region, 2014-2022
- Figure 4: Year-on-year percentage point increase in FTTP coverage of total country premises
- Figure 5: FTTx coverage of total country premises by selected market, end 2017 and end 2022
- Figure 6: FTTP costs per home passed and incumbent FTTP coverage, selected European markets, end 2017
- Figure 7: Incumbent and other operator FTTP coverage, end of 2017, selected major markets
- Figure 8: FTTx coverage end 2017 and nominal GDP per capita 2016, selected emerging markets
- Figure 9: FTTC and FTTB/dp homes passed, worldwide, 2017-2022
- Figure 10: Cost per premises passed for DOCSIS3.1 and downstream/upstream frequency upgrades
- Figure 11: NGA coverage by technology, Western Europe, 2015-2022
- Figure 12: FTTx capex by technology, Western Europe, 2015-2022
- Figure 13: NGA coverage by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015-2022
- Figure 14: FTTx capex by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015-2022
- Figure 15: NGA coverage by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2015-2022
- Figure 16: FTTx capex by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2015-2022
- Figure 17: NGA coverage by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015-2022
- Figure 18: FTTx capex by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015-2022
- Figure 19: NGA coverage by technology, China, 2015-2022
- Figure 20: FTTx capex by technology, China, 2015-2022
- Figure 21: NGA coverage by technology, rest of emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015-2022
- Figure 22: FTTx capex by technology, rest of emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015-2022
- Figure 23: NGA coverage by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015-2022
- Figure 24: FTTx capex by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015-2022
- Figure 25: NGA coverage by technology, North America, 2015-2022
- Figure 26: FTTx capex by technology, North America, 2015-2022
- Figure 27: NGA coverage by technology, Latin America, 2015-2022
- Figure 28: FTTx capex by technology, Latin America, 2015-2022
- Figure 29: Countries covered in this report, by region
- Figure 30: Definitions used in this report
- Figure 31: Capex model outline
- Figure 32: Basic overview of FTTx network topologies and elements
- Figure 33: Baseline capital unit cost assumptions, FTTC/VDSL and FTTB/VDSL
- Figure 34: Baseline capital unit cost assumptions, FTTP/GPON