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西欧の通信市場動向・予測

Western Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 337314
出版日 ページ情報 英文 40 Slides
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西欧の通信市場動向・予測 Western Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023
出版日: 2019年03月15日 ページ情報: 英文 40 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、西欧全体および主要16か国における330以上のモバイル・固定KPIの5ヵ年予測を提供しており、各モバイル・固定サービスタイプおよび主要諸国の動向・促進因子・予測の前提条件に関する詳細な分析、オペレーターの戦略の概要、およびモバイル・固定オペレーターへの提言などをまとめています。

調査対象国

  • オーストリア
  • ベルギー
  • デンマーク
  • フィンランド
  • フランス
  • ドイツ
  • ギリシャ
  • アイルランド
  • イタリア
  • オランダ
  • ノルウェー
  • ポルトガル
  • スペイン
  • スウェーデン
  • スイス
  • 英国

主要KPIの5カ年予測

  • 接続数
    • モバイル
      • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・IoT
      • プリペイド/契約ベース
      • 2G・3G・4G・5G
      • スマートフォン・非スマートフォン
    • 固定
      • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイヤルアップ
      • ナローバンド音声・VoBB
      • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・5G・その他
  • 音声トラフィック
    • 固定・モバイルの発信時間・MoU
  • 収益
    • モバイル
      • サービス・小売
      • プリペイド/契約ベース
      • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・IoT
      • 端末音声・メッセージング・データ
    • 固定
      • サービス・小売
      • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイヤルアップ・ビジネスサービス
      • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・その他
  • ARPU
    • モバイル
      • SIM・端末
      • プリペイド/契約ベース
      • 端末音声・データ
目次

"The total service revenue for telecoms and pay-TV services in Western Europe will amount to EUR272 billion in 2023."

We expect that total revenue growth in the telecoms market in Western Europe will continue, driven by fixed broadband (FBB) revenue growth. Fixed broadband penetration will increase further and operators' focus on the roll-out of next-generation access (NGA) networks will contribute to higher broadband revenue. However, fixed broadband ASPU will remain stable in most countries in the region. In this report, we examine operator strategies and country-specific topic and provide recommendations for mobile and fixed operators in Western Europe.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 330 mobile and fixed KPIs for Western Europe, as a whole and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Regions modelled

  • Western Europe (WE)

Countries modelled individually

  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • UK

Connections
Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband,1 IoT2
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue
Mobile

  • Service,3 retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband,1 IoT2
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service,3 retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

1Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data.

2IoT connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.

3Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary and recommendations
  • 9. The telecoms market in Western Europe will grow modestly as markets saturate and because mobile revenue growth is limited
  • 10. The economic outlook for Western Europe has improved, but retail revenue growth will be limited or negative across the region
  • 11. Geographical coverage: the majority of fixed broadband connections in Western Europe will use NGA technologies by 2023
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13. Key recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15. Market context: there is limited scope for increased penetration in Western Europe (with a few exceptions); revenue growth must come from higher ASPU
  • 16. Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
  • 17. Key drivers at a glance for each Western Europe market
  • 18. Market overview: the overall telecoms revenue outlook remains flat; increased fixed broadband penetration and business services are the main drivers of revenue growth
  • 19. Mobile: 4G/LTE take-up will continue to drive growth in mobile data usage, but ARPU will remain flat during the forecast period
  • 20. Mobile: mobile penetration will decline gradually in most countries as the contract share of connections increases and replacement cycles lengthen
  • 21. Mobile: ARPU is noticeably higher in the two non-EU countries in WE, where the incumbents have a high market share
  • 22. Mobile: 5G spectrum auctions and launches of 5G services will be an important part of operators' activity in Western Europe during the forecast period
  • 23. Fixed: broadband household penetration will increase further and NGA technologies will account for most broadband connections
  • 24. Fixed: broadband penetration in most countries is nearing saturation; regional penetration growth will be driven by activity in Italy, Portugal and Spain
  • 25. Fixed: ASPU will remain flat in most of markets, and only two non-EU countries will have significantly higher ASPU during the forecast period
  • 26. Fixed: fixed broadband revenue growth will continue, driven by increasing coverage and the demand for high-speed broadband
  • 27. Business services: revenue from legacy services will decline, and operators will need to offer a broader range of services to sustain enterprise revenue
  • 28. IoT: the IoT sector is an important area of growth in Western Europe, as operators seek alternative revenue streams
  • 29. Pay TV: revenue growth for IPTV and OTT video services will remain strong
  • 30. Individual country forecasts
  • 31. France: competition between operators will hamper fixed revenue growth despite strong investment in NGA roll-outs
  • 32. France: 5G will launch commercially in 2020, with adoption growing reasonably quickly and causing a drop in the number of 4G connections
  • 33. France: ARPU will remain mostly constant during the forecast period despite strong investment in mobile and fixed services
  • 34. France: forecast changes
  • 35. Germany: the number of fixed voice connections will continue to decline, which will negatively affect total telecoms revenue
  • 36. Germany: Deutsche Telekom's investments in upgrading ADSL lines will lead to substantial growth in the number of VDSL lines
  • 37. Germany: there will be significant technological improvements in both the mobile and fixed segments, but this will have a limited impact on revenue
  • 38. Germany: forecast changes
  • 39. Italy: both the mobile and fixed markets will remain highly competitive
  • 40. Italy: operators are aiming to launch 5G services by late 2019/early 2020; in the fixed market, coverage and take-up of fibre will grow significantly
  • 41. Italy: established MNOs are aiming to ease the pressure on price; investment in fibre networks will lead to growth in fixed broadband connectivity
  • 42. Italy: forecast changes
  • 43. Spain: moderate growth of service revenue will be driven by an increase in NGA-based broadband revenue
  • 44. Spain: operators' focus on rolling out FTTP/B will help to maintain high levels of fixed broadband ASPU during the forecast period
  • 45. Spain: operators will focus on 5G deployments and on the further increase of fibre broadband coverage
  • 46. Spain: forecast changes
  • 47. UK: revenue growth has slowed as opportunities for service enrichment have dwindled
  • 48. UK: mobile ARPU will continue to grow modestly despite strong traffic growth; fixed broadband ASPU growth will be driven by NGA take-up
  • 49. UK: the regulator is encouraging operators to roll out “full fibre” FTTP connectivity, and this will lead to a transformation of the broadband market
  • 50. UK: forecast changes
  • 51. Methodology
  • 52. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 53. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 54. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 55. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 56. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 57. About the authors [1]
  • 58. About the authors [2]
  • 59. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 60. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 61. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Western Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Western Europe, 2017-2023
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Western Europe, 2017 and 20231
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Western Europe
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the 16 countries modelled individually in Western Europe,
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Western Europe
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory (2018-2023), by country, Western Europe
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Western Europe (EUR billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Western Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Western Europe (million), 2013-
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Western Europe (EUR per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Western Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Western Europe (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Western Europe (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Western Europe (EUR billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Western Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Western Europe (GB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Western Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Western Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Western Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Western Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Western Europe, 2013-2023
  • Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, France (EUR billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, France (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, France, 2013-2023
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, France (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, France, 2013-2023
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, France (EUR per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, France (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, France (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, France, 2013-2023
  • Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Germany (EUR billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Germany (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Germany, 2013-2023
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Germany (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Germany, 2013-2023
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Germany (EUR per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Germany (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Germany (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Germany, 2013-2023
  • Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Italy (EUR billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Italy (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Italy, 2013-2023
  • Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Italy (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Italy, 2013-2023
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Italy (EUR per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Italy (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Italy (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Italy, 2013-2023
  • Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Spain (EUR billion), -2023
  • Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Spain (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Spain, -2023
  • Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Spain (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Spain, 2013-
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, Spain (EUR per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Spain (MB per month), 2013-
  • Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Spain (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Spain, 2013-2023
  • Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, UK (GBP billion), -2023
  • Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, UK (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, UK, 2013-
  • Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, UK (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, UK, 2013-2023
  • Figure 68: Mobile ARPU; fixed voice, broadband and pay-TV ASPU, UK (GBP per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, UK (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, UK (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, UK, 2013-2023
  • Figure 72a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 72b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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