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西欧8カ国の通信市場動向・予測:2015-2020年

Western Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts (8 Countries) 2015-2020

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 337314
出版日 ページ情報 英文 49 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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西欧8カ国の通信市場動向・予測:2015-2020年 Western Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts (8 Countries) 2015-2020
出版日: 2015年08月11日 ページ情報: 英文 49 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、西欧地域全体および8ヶ国における100以上のモバイル・固定KPIの5カ年予測を提供しており、モバイル・固定サービスの各タイプおよび主要国の予測の前提条件、オペレーター戦略の概要と国別のトピック、モバイル・固定オペレーターの主な見通しと提言、および市場動向・促進因子などの分析をまとめ、お届けいたします。

エグゼクティブサマリー

地域別の予測・国の比較

  • 地理的範囲:次世代サービスは2020年までに西欧のモバイル・固定ブロードバンド市場を支配する見込み
  • 市場背景:西欧の通信市場は平均でGDPの1.9%を構成し、1ヶ月1人当たりの小売り支出は42.7ユーロ
  • 収益・ARPU:市場の成熟およびARPUの下落に後押しされ、通信収益は引き続きゆっくりと減少
  • モバイル接続:LTEはVoLTEサービスの開始に支えられ、急速にモバイル技術で優勢となる
  • スマートフォン・LTE:普及率が人口の100%を超え、スマートフォンは端末タイプのデフォルトに
  • モバイルARPU:料金の低下およびOTTサービスとの競合は、予測期間にわたりARPUの継続的な低下を引き起こす
  • 固定サービス
  • 固定ブロードバンド、ほか

各国の予測

  • フランス
  • ドイツ
  • イタリア
  • スペイン
  • スウェーデン
  • 英国

著者・ ANALYSYS MASON について

目次

"Traditional telecoms revenue streams will continue to suffer heavy losses, outweighing growth in mobile and fixed data and TV markets."

Mobile operators must continue to encourage the enrichment of their customer bases, by managing the migration of customers from prepaid to contract plans and from basic phones to smartphones. This strategy will reduce churn and open up opportunities to encourage the take-up of data-centric plans.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for the region as a whole and for 8 countries
  • well-documented forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators
  • an analysis of the trends, drivers and an explanation of the significant changes to our previous forecasts for the region.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageMajor KPIs 

Regions modelled

  • Western Europe

Connections
Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable

Revenue
Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable

 

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary
  • 9. The Western European telecoms market will decline from EUR252 billion in 2014 to EUR231 billion in 2020
  • 10. Traditional telecoms revenue streams will suffer further heavy losses, outweighing growth in the mobile and fixed data markets
  • 11. Fixed and mobile revenue will decline in most countries and regulatory interventions will reduce the revenue boost brought by consolidation
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15. Geographical coverage: Next-generation services will dominate the mobile and fixed broadband markets of Western Europe by 2020
  • 16. Market context: The Western European telecoms market accounts for an average of 1.9% of GDP, with monthly retail spend of EUR42.7 per capita
  • 17. Revenue and ARPU: Telecoms revenue will continue to decline slowly, driven by market maturity and declining ARPU
  • 18. Mobile penetration: Total penetration will not grow in most countries, but significant numbers of users will migrate from prepaid to contract plans
  • 19. Mobile connections: LTE will rapidly become the dominant mobile technology, boosted by the launch of VoLTE services
  • 20. Smartphones and LTE: Smartphones will become the default handset type, with penetration exceeding 100% of population
  • 21. Mobile ARPU: Declining prices and competition from OTT services will cause ARPU to continue to fall during the forecast period
  • 22. Fixed services: The technology mix is evolving rapidly as customers look for faster broadband and operators seek to cut costs
  • 23. Fixed broadband: Growth is a common factor, but varies by country according to the prevailing market characteristics
  • 24. Key drivers at a glance for each Western European market
  • 25. Individual country forecasts
  • 26. France: Market consolidation should bring stability to telecoms revenue
  • 27. France - mobile: More smartphones and LTE in the customer base will offset the impact of converged bundles on ARPU
  • 28. France - fixed: Bundled offers are a key strategy for reducing churn, but broadband ARPU will decline as a result
  • 29. Germany: Total telecoms service revenue will continue to decrease, driven by a decline in mobile and fixed voice revenue
  • 30. Germany - mobile: Quadruple-play offers will put pressure on handset ARPU, and drive users from prepaid to contract deals
  • 31. Germany - fixed: Bundling will reduce broadband ARPU, but the decline will be limited by operators competing on network quality
  • 32. Italy: Telecoms service revenue will continue to decline albeit at a slower rate than previously
  • 33. Italy - mobile: LTE gained strength in 1Q 2015 and the potential merger of 3 Italia and Wind may ease price competition
  • 34. Italy - fixed: Pay-TV content agreements and NGA may make the broadband market more dynamic, but penetration will lag behind
  • 35. Spain: Telecoms revenue will decline more slowly than in the past as in-market consolidation, LTE and fibre will ease ARPU pressure
  • 36. Spain - mobile: ARPU will be more resilient as LTE gains momentum and fixed-mobile bundles may reduce churn
  • 37. Spain - fixed: In-market consolidation, fibre deployment and fixed-mobile bundles will make the fixed market very dynamic
  • 38. Sweden: Despite a strong performance in 2014, total revenue will decline slowly from 2015 as new service growth slows
  • 39. Sweden - mobile: ARPU grew in 2014 because many customers upgraded to contract plans, but this effect will decline from 2015
  • 40. Sweden - fixed: FTTH/B will account for more than half of fixed broadband households, but ASPU will continue to be eroded
  • 41. UK: Total revenue will continue to decline slowly because growth from new services will be undermined by bundling discounts
  • 42. UK - mobile: The pending mergers of BT and EE, and Three and O2, will alter the competitive landscape significantly
  • 43. UK - fixed: Investments in NGA infrastructure will drive take-up of fixed broadband, but bundling will put pressure on ASPU
  • 44. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 45. About the authors
  • 46. About Analysys Mason
  • 47. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 48. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Western Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by country, Western Europe
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Western Europe
  • Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, Western Europe, 2020
  • Figure 6: Metrics for eight of the countries modelled individually in Western Europe, 2014
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, Western Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Western Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Western Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 16: Major forecast drivers and impact, by country, Western Europe, 2015-2020
  • Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), France, 2010-2020
  • Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, France, 2014-2020
  • Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, France, 2014-2020
  • Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, France, 2010-2020
  • Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, France, 2010-2020
  • Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, France
  • Figure 23: Fixed penetration rates by service type, France, 2010-2020
  • Figure 24: Fixed ASPU by service type, France, 2010-2020
  • Figure 25: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, France
  • Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Germany, 2010-2020
  • Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Germany, 2014-2020
  • Figure 28: Connections by type, and growth rates, Germany, 2014-2020
  • Figure 29: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Germany, 2010-2020
  • Figure 30: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Germany, 2010-2020
  • Figure 31: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Germany
  • Figure 32: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Germany, 2010-2020
  • Figure 33: Fixed ASPU by service type, Germany, 2010-2020
  • Figure 34: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Germany
  • Figure 35: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Italy, 2010-2020
  • Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Italy, 2014-2020
  • Figure 37: Connections by type, and growth rates, Italy, 2014-2020
  • Figure 38: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Italy, 2010-2020
  • Figure 39: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Italy, 2010-2020
  • Figure 40: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Italy
  • Figure 41: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Italy, 2010-2020
  • Figure 42: Fixed ASPU by service type, Italy, 2010-2020
  • Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Italy
  • Figure 44: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Spain, 2010-2020
  • Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Spain, 2014-2020
  • Figure 46: Connections by type, and growth rates, Spain, 2014-2020
  • Figure 47: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Spain, 2010-2020
  • Figure 48: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Spain, 2010-2020
  • Figure 49: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Spain
  • Figure 50: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Spain, 2010-2020
  • Figure 51: Fixed ASPU by service type, Spain, 2010-2020
  • Figure 52: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Spain
  • Figure 53: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sweden, 2010-2020
  • Figure 54: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sweden, 2014-2020
  • Figure 55: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sweden, 2014-2020
  • Figure 56: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Sweden, 2010-2020
  • Figure 57: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Sweden, 2010-2020
  • Figure 58: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Sweden
  • Figure 59: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Sweden, 2010-2020
  • Figure 60: Fixed ASPU by service type, Sweden, 2010-2020
  • Figure 61: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Sweden
  • Figure 62: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), UK, 2010-2020
  • Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, UK, 2014-2020
  • Figure 64: Connections by type, and growth rates, UK, 2014-2020
  • Figure 65: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, UK, 2010-2020
  • Figure 66: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, UK, 2010-2020
  • Figure 67: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, UK
  • Figure 68: Fixed penetration rates by service type, UK, 2010-2020
  • Figure 69: Fixed ASPU by service type, UK, 2010-2020
  • Figure 70: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, UK
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