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西欧の通信市場動向・予測:2017-2022年

Western Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 337314
出版日 ページ情報 英文 51 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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西欧の通信市場動向・予測:2017-2022年 Western Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
出版日: 2017年08月30日 ページ情報: 英文 51 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、西欧全体および主要16か国における360以上のモバイル・固定KPIの5ヵ年予測を提供しており、各モバイル・固定サービスタイプおよび主要諸国の動向・促進因子・予測の前提条件に関する詳細な分析、オペレーターの戦略の概要、およびモバイル・固定オペレーターへの提言などをまとめています。

調査対象国

  • オーストリア
  • ベルギー
  • デンマーク
  • フィンランド
  • フランス
  • ドイツ
  • ギリシャ
  • アイルランド
  • イタリア
  • オランダ
  • ノルウェー
  • ポルトガル
  • スペイン
  • スウェーデン
  • スイス
  • 英国

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

地域の予測・各国比較

  • 対象地域
  • 市場背景:欧州圏において経済回復は進行中だが、ブリグジットの結果次第
  • 収益・ARPU:ブロードバンドASPUの成長は収益減少を抑制する見込みだが、強い成長は見込めない
  • モバイル普及率:ユーザー基盤は伸び悩んでいるが、契約にバンドルされた追加のSIMは減少を抑制する見込み
  • モバイル接続:スペクトル再配分は4Gの成長を助けるが、レガシーネットワークの大規模のデコミッショニングは見込めない
  • スマートフォン・LTE:スマートフォンは2020年までにほとんどの国で普及率が90%を超える見込み
  • モバイルブロードバンド:スマートフォンのテザリングおよびコネクテッドタブレットにおける関心の欠如は、専用データ接続の減少を促進する見込み
  • モバイルARPU:ARPUは引き続きほとんどの国で下落を続け、さらにEU規制は収益にマイナスの影響を与える見込み
  • データ・収益、世代別:使い放題の料金プラン、ネット中立性 - 回避サービス、およびローミング料の値下げはデータ利用を促進する見込み
  • 固定サービス:FTTP/Bのユーザー基盤は2016年から2022年の間に約3倍となるが、VDSLは主要なアクセス技術となる見込み
  • 固定ブロードバンド:ユーザー基盤の成長およびNGAプレミアム料金が収益を促進
  • 西欧各国市場の主な促進因子
  • 主な促進因子:調査手法

各国の予測

  • フランス
  • ドイツ
  • イタリア
  • スペイン
  • 英国

著者・Analysys Mason について

図表リスト

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目次

"Operators are making efforts to maintain premium pricing and focus on other means of differentiation, but the presence of challenger operators in many countries will continue to hinder revenue growth."

Premium pricing from next-generation access (NGA) broadband will be the main revenue growth driver, as the commoditisation of mobile services progresses from voice and messaging to handset data. Fixed markets will perform better than mobile markets in most countries, but the line between the two is becoming increasingly blurred.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 360 mobile and fixed KPIs for Western Europe, as a whole and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Regions modelled

  • Western Europe (WE)

Countries modelled individually

  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • UK

Connections
Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, minutes of use (MoU)

Revenue
Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

ABOUT THE AUTHORS:

Roman Orvisky (Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing mainly to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Core Data programmes. Prior to joining Analysys Mason in November 2014, he worked in the Transaction Services department of the Royal Bank of Scotland in a customer experience internship role. During his studies, Roman focused on consumer behaviour in an online context, and has experience in churn modelling in the telecoms sector, social network analysis and browsing data analysis. Roman holds a bachelor's degree in business from Durham University, and an MSc in marketingresearch from the Tilburg University School of Economics and Management.

Julia Martusewicz-Kulinska (Senior Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team, contributing mainly to the European Core Forecasts, Telecoms Market Matrix and European Country Reports programmes. She has more than 14 years of research and telecoms industry regulations experience. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, she worked for the Polish national regulatory authority as thehead of the Research Division, where she was responsible for telecoms market research, and as the leader of the Telecommunications MarketAnalysis Department, which was accountable for co-operation between the regulatory authority and the Information Society and Media DG of the European Commission.

William Hare(Senior Analyst) is the leader of Analysys Mason's Telecoms Market Matrix research programme, which tracks and compares telecoms metrics and market shares for all the major fixed and mobile operators in Europe. He also leads the European Country Reportsprogramme, which provides insightful reports on 30 European telecoms markets. He is a key contributor to our European Core Forecasts and Global Core Data programmes, specialising in business and market modelling and data analysis. William joined Analysys Mason's Research practice in 2010 after 3 years as a consultant in our Consulting practice, working directly with clients in Europe, Asia and Africa. He read mathematics at the University of Cambridge.

Table of Contents

  • 8.Executive summary
  • 9.Revenue trends are improving in many countries, but growth will be limited
  • 10.Fixed broadband will be the main source of revenue growth
  • 11.The fixed market will perform better than the mobile market in most countries
  • 12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15.Geographical coverage
  • 16.Market context: Economic recovery is underway in the Eurozone, but will depend on the outcome of Brexit
  • 17.Revenue and ARPU: Growing broadband ASPU will limit revenue decline, but strong growth is unlikely
  • 18.Mobile penetration: User bases will be stagnant, but additional SIMs bundled in contracts will limit decline
  • 19.Mobile connections: Spectrum refarming will help 4G growth, but large-scale decommissioning of legacy networks is unlikely
  • 20.Smartphones and LTE: Smartphones will exceed 90% penetration in most countries by 2020
  • 21.Mobile broadband: Smartphone tethering and a lack of interest in connected tablets will drive a decline in dedicated data connections
  • 22.Mobile ARPU: ARPU will continue to fall in most countries, and EU regulations will have a negative impact on profitability
  • 23.Data and revenue by generation: Unlimited tariffs, net neutrality-skirting offers, and roaming rate cuts will drive data usage
  • 24.Fixed services: The FTTP/B user base will nearly triple between 2016 and 2022, but VDSL will be the leading access technology
  • 25.Fixed broadband: User base growth and NGA price premiums will drive up revenue
  • 26.Key drivers for each country in Western Europe
  • 27.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 28.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 29.Individualcountryforecasts
  • 30.France: Total retail revenue will fall by 0.6% per year, driven by declining voice and messaging revenue
  • 31.France - mobile: Growing 4G penetration will drive data consumption and slow down the decline in mobile retail revenue
  • 32.France - fixed: Operators' investments in NGA are helping tocurb the decline in fixed broadband ARPU
  • 33.Germany: Revenue growth will be slow, led by mobile data adoption and NGA fixed broadband pricing premium
  • 34.Germany - mobile: Revenue will grow, but at a very slow pace
  • 35.Germany - fixed: Revenue will be flat as growth in superfast broadband will offset the declining fixed voice market
  • 36.Italy: Overall revenue will decline because data revenue growth will not compensate for declining voice revenue
  • 37.Italy - mobile: The arrival of Iliad will drive down handset ASPU
  • 38.Italy - fixed: Investment and the growing popularity of convergent bundles will boost broadband revenue and penetration
  • 39.Spain: Retail revenue growth is expected to continue driven by converged bundle take-up and mobile data revenue increase
  • 40.Spain - mobile: Content services and increasing LTE population coverage will keep handset data revenue growth
  • 41.Spain - fixed: Content investment will be crucial for future fixed revenue increase
  • 42.UK: Retail revenue growth will turn to decline from 2019 as opportunities for service enrichment dwindle
  • 43.UK - mobile: The prospect of Brexit adds uncertainty to the economic outlook
  • 44.UK - fixed: Demand for higher-quality broadband connectionswill fuel continued growth in ASPU
  • 45.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 46.About the authors [1]
  • 47.Abouttheauthors [2]
  • 48.About Analysys Mason
  • 49.ResearchfromAnalysysMason
  • 50.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 2: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue growth by service type, Western Europe, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, Western Europe, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Western Europe
  • Figure 5: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Western Europe, 2022
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the 16 countries modelled individually in Western Europe, 2016
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 11: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, Western Europe, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 13: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2016 and 2022
  • Figure 14: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, Western Europe, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 15a: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 15b: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 16: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Western Europe, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 17: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, Western Europe, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 18: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Western Europe, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 19: Residential fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Western Europe, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 20: Residential fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Western Europe, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 21: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017- 2022), by country, Western Europe
  • Figure 22a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 22b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 23: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), France, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 24: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, France, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 25: Connections by type, and growth rates, France, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 26: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, France, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 27: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, France, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 28: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, France
  • Figure 29: Fixed penetration rates by service type, France, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 30: Fixed ASPU by service type, France, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 31: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, France
  • Figure 32: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Germany, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 33: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Germany, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 34: Connections by type, and growth rates, Germany, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 35: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Germany, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 36: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Germany, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 37: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Germany
  • Figure 38: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Germany, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 39: Fixed ASPU by service type, Germany, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 40: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Germany
  • Figure 41: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Italy, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 42: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Italy, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 43: Connections by type, and growth rates, Italy, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 44: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Italy, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 45: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Italy, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 46: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Italy
  • Figure 47: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Italy, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 48: Fixed ASPU by service type, Italy, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 49: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Italy
  • Figure 50: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Spain, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 51: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Spain, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 52: Connections by type, and growth rates, Spain, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 53: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Spain, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 54: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Spain, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 55: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Spain
  • Figure 56: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Spain, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 57: Fixed ASPU by service type, Spain, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 58: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Spain
  • Figure 59: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), UK, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 60: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, UK, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 61: Connections by type, and growth rates, UK, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 62: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, UK, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 63: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, UK, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 64: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, UK
  • Figure 65: Fixed penetration rates by service type, UK, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 66: Fixed ASPU by service type, UK, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 67: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, UK
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