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市場調査レポート

ラテンアメリカの通信市場:中間予測アップデート 2015-2020

Latin America Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update 2015-2020

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 317855
出版日 ページ情報 英文 23 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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ラテンアメリカの通信市場:中間予測アップデート 2015-2020 Latin America Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update 2015-2020
出版日: 2016年04月01日 ページ情報: 英文 23 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、ラテンアメリカの通信市場について調査し、100以上のモバイル・固定KPIの5カ年の中間予測アップデートを提供しており、最新のデータに基づいた修正予測、旧版と比較した大きな変化の説明、および今後の予測などをまとめています。

エグゼクティブサマリー・地域の予測

国別の予測

  • アルゼンチン:固定ブロードバンドの導入は減速、収益成長は通貨の下落によって促進される見込み
  • ブラジル:MTRのカットに推進されたプリペイドの契約解除数により、モバイルユーザーベースの成長予測を修正
  • チリ:固定ブロードバンド収益は、ユーザーベースの成長、FTTH採用の予測およびARPUの再校正によって修正
  • コロンビア:収益成長は端末ユーザーベースの成長鈍化によって抑制される
  • メキシコ:スマートフォン予測は最新のデータによって修正され、ケーブルオペレーターは固定ブロードバンドの成長を促進
  • ペルー:データにフォーカスしたプランのプロモーションにおけるTelefonicaの成功は、端末のスマートフォンシェアを押し上げる
  • ベネズエラ:経済破綻に瀕しているため、米ドル換算の収益は減少

著者・Analysys Masonについて

図表リスト

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目次

"Service revenue will grow in the seven largest markets in Latin America between 2015 and 2020, apart from Brazil and Venezuela, where growth will be affected by adverse economic conditions."

The following factors represent the main drivers behind a negative service revenue revision of our previous Latin America forecast from June 2015.

  • Growth in the mobile user base in Brazil and Colombia will be slower than previously expected.
  • Competitive pressure from low-end entrants and mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) in several countries has increased.
  • The macroeconomic outlook for the region is worse than previously forecast.
  • Stringent regulatory measures (predominantly in Brazil and Mexico) will have a significant effect on revenue across the region.
  • The region's fixed voice user base is expected to decline more quickly than expected.

Nevertheless, regional growth will continue because there is still a significant opportunity for adoption of high-speed fixed broadband and mobile data usage - both in terms of smartphone and 4G penetration.

This report provides:

  • an interim update of our 5-year forecast (Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015-2020, previously published in June 2015) of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for LATAM as a whole and for seven key countries.
  • an explanation of the significant changes in this edition, compared with our previous forecasts.

    Revisions to our previous forecasts occurred mainly for the following reasons:

  • market developments - based on recent market events and latest reported operator and regulator data (3Q 2015)
  • changes to the competitive and regulatory environment
  • changes to the macroeconomic outlook and exchange rates used to derive revenue in constant US dollars
  • changes to historical data because of newly available information.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageMajor KPIs 

Regions modelled

  • Latin America (LATAM)

Countries modelled individually

  • Argentina
  • Brazil
  • Chile
  • Colombia
  • Mexico
  • Peru
  • Venezuela

Connections
Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue
Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Roman Orvisky (Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Forecasts programmes. Prior to joining Analysys Mason in November 2014, he worked in the Transaction Services department of the Royal Bank of Scotland in a customer experience internship role. During his studies, Roman focused on consumer behaviour in an online context, and has experience in churn modelling in the telecoms sector, social network analysis and browsing data analysis. Roman holds a Bachelor's degree in business from Durham University, and an MSc in marketing research from the Tilburg University School of Economics and Management.

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary and regional forecasts
  • 6. Revenue growth has been revised down as the macroeconomic outlook is more negative and stringent regulatory measures are coming into effect
  • 7. Fixed and mobile internet take-up will continue to drive revenue growth in the region
  • 8. Smartphones and LTE: The LTE user base in the region will reach 156 million in 2020, with growing opportunities for data monetisation
  • 9. Key regional changes since our previous forecast
  • 10. Forecast revision: The stagnating economy of Brazil, the region's largest market, is the main driver of a more negative outlook
  • 11. Individual country forecasts
  • 12. Argentina: Fixed broadband adoption will slow down; revenue growth will be driven by accelerating currency depreciation
  • 13. Brazil: The number of prepaid disconnections, driven by MTR cuts, has led us to revise our forecast down for mobile user base growth
  • 14. Chile: Fixed broadband revenue has been revised up due to user base growth, expected FTTH take-up and ARPU recalibration
  • 15. Colombia: Revenue growth will be hampered by a slowdown in handset user base growth
  • 16. Mexico: The smartphone forecast has been revised up due to new data, and cable operators are driving growth in fixed broadband
  • 17. Peru: Telefónica's success in promoting data-focused plans has driven up the smartphone share of handsets
  • 18. Venezuela: Revenue calculated in US dollars will take a downturn because the country is on the verge of an economic collapse
  • 19. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 20. About the author
  • 21. About Analysys Mason
  • 22. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 23. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Latin America, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Latin America, 2014-2020
  • Figure 3: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Latin America, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 4: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast for Latin America
  • Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Latin America, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Latin America, 2014-2020
  • Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Latin America, 2014-2020
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Argentina, 2010-2020
  • Figure 9: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Argentina
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Brazil, 2010-2020
  • Figure 11: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Brazil
  • Figure 12: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Chile, 2010-2020
  • Figure 13: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Chile
  • Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Colombia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 15: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Colombia
  • Figure 16: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Mexico, 2010-2020
  • Figure 17: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Mexico
  • Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Peru, 2010-2020
  • Figure 19: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Peru
  • Figure 20: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Venezuela, 2010-2020
  • Figure 21: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Venezuela
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