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ラテンアメリカの通信市場:中間予測アップデート

Latin America Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update 2016-2021

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 317855
出版日 ページ情報 英文 23 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=113.97円で換算しております。
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ラテンアメリカの通信市場:中間予測アップデート Latin America Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update 2016-2021
出版日: 2017年03月09日 ページ情報: 英文 23 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、ラテンアメリカ地域の通信サービスの市場を調査し、地域全体および主要国における各種市場データの更新、競合環境・法規制環境の変化、マクロ経済的展望の変化、市場の新たな展開などをまとめています。

調査内容

  • 対象地域
    • ラテンアメリカ
  • 個別調査対象国
    • アルゼンチン
    • ブラジル
    • チリ
    • コロンビア
    • メキシコ
    • ペルー
  • その他の調査対象国
    • アンギラ
    • アンティグア・バーブーダ
    • オランダ領アンティル
    • アルバ
    • バハマ
    • バルバドス
    • ベリーズ
    • バミューダ
    • ボリビア
    • ケイマン諸島
    • コスタリカ
    • キューバ
    • ドミニカ
    • ドミニカ共和国
    • エクアドル
    • エルサルバドル
    • フランス領ギアナ
    • グレナダ
    • グアドループ
    • グアテマラ
    • ガイアナ
    • ハイチ
    • ホンジュラス
    • ジャマイカ
    • マルティニーク
    • モントセラト
    • ニカラグア
    • パナマ
    • パラグアイ
    • プエルトリコ
    • セントクリストファー・ネイビス
    • セントルシア
    • セントビンセント及びグレナディーン諸島
    • スリナム
    • トリニダード・トバゴ
    • タークス・カイコス諸島
    • ウルグアイ
    • ベネズエラ
    • イギリス領ヴァージン諸島
    • アメリカ領ヴァージン諸島
  • 接続数
    • モバイル
      • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・IoT
      • プリペイド・契約
      • 2G・3G・4G・5G
      • スマートフォン・非スマートフォン
    • 固定
      • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイヤルアップ
      • ナローバンド音声・VoBB
      • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・その他
    • 固定・モバイル音声トラフィック
      • 発信時間・MoU
  • 収益
    • モバイル
      • サービス・リテール
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・IoT
      • 端末音声・メッセージング・データ
    • 固定
      • サービス・リテール
      • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイヤルアップ・BNS
      • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・その他、など
    • モバイルARPU
      • SIM・端末
      • プリペイド・契約
      • 端末音声・データ

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目次

"We expect low revenue growth in Latin America as macroeconomic conditions there improve in comparison with the last couple of years, but economic uncertainty looms, particularly over Mexico."

Fixed and mobile data will be the main sources of revenue growth in Latin America (LATAM) as next-generation access (NGA) coverage increases and 4G take-up accelerates. Mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) will have an impact primarily at the low end of the market as mobile network operators (MNOs) leverage their financial position to provide better mobile data services. However, the future of the region hinges on the potential extent of isolationist trade policies proposed by the new US president Donald Trump.

This report and associated data annex provide:

an interim update of our 5-year forecast (Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2016-2021 , published in September 2016) of more than 175 mobile and fixed KPIs for LATAM as a whole and for six key countries an explanation of the significant changes in this edition, compared with our previous forecasts.

Revisions to our previous forecasts occurred mainly for the following reasons:

  • market developments - based on recent market events and latest reported operator and regulator data (3Q 2016)
  • changes to the competitive and regulatory environment
  • changes to the macroeconomic outlook and exchange rates used to derive revenue in constant US dollars
  • changes to historical data because of newly available information.

Coverage

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators
Regions modelled
  • Latin America
Countries modelled individually
  • Argentina
  • Brazil
  • Chile
  • Colombia
  • Mexico
  • Peru
Countries not modelled individually,
but modelled as part of the region as a whole
  • Anguilla
  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • Netherlands Antilles
  • Aruba
  • Bahamas
  • Barbados
  • Belize
  • Bermuda
  • Bolivia
  • Cayman Islands
  • Costa Rica
  • Cuba
  • Dominica
  • Dominican Republic
  • Ecuador
  • El Salvador
  • French Guiana
  • Grenada
  • Guadeloupe
  • Guatemala
  • Guyana
  • Haiti
  • Honduras
  • Jamaica
  • Martinique
  • Monsterrat
  • Nicaragua
  • Panama
  • Paraguay
  • Puerto Rico
  • St Kitts and Nevis
  • St Lucia
  • St Vincent and the Grenadines
  • Suriname
  • Trinidad and Tobago
  • Turks and Caicos Islands
  • Uruguay
  • Venezuela
  • British Virgin Islands
  • US Virgin Islands
Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Fixed
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other
Fixed and mobile voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU
Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Fixed
  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary and regional forecasts
  • 6. Handset data and fixed broadband will be the main reasons for revenue growth, although this will be slow during the forecast period
  • 7. Smartphones and 4G/5G: The region's smartphone user base will grow to nearly half a billion by 2021
  • 8. Fixed services: The rapid growth in revenue and the number of subscriptions for cable is a consistent theme across the region
  • 9. Key regional changes since our previous forecast
  • 10. Forecast revision: More positive outlook on handset data and fixed broadband
  • 11. Individual country forecasts
  • 12. Argentina: We have revised our forecast up because inflation continues to drive up tariffs
  • 13. Brazil: Revenue will grow overall because handset data will make up for a declining voice market
  • 14. Chile: Strong mobile growth in 2016 drives an upward revision of our previous forecast
  • 15. Colombia: We have lowered our forecast for telecoms service revenue based on newly available data
  • 16. Mexico: We have revised our forecast down based on intense mobile competition and the uncertain economic climate
  • 17. Peru: The forecast has been revised down due to mobile competition and a slowdown in fixed broadband growth
  • 18. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 19. About the author
  • 20. About Analysys Mason
  • 21. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 22. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Latin America, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding IoT), Latin America, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 3: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Latin America, 2011-2021
  • Figure 4: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast for Latin America
  • Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue forecast by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Latin America, 2016 and 2021
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Latin America, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Latin America, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Argentina, 2011-2021
  • Figure 9: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Argentina
  • Figure 10Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Brazil, 2011-2021
  • Figure 11: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Brazil
  • Figure 12: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Chile, 2011-2021
  • Figure 13: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Chile
  • Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Colombia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 15: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Colombia
  • Figure 16: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Mexico, 2011-2021
  • Figure 17: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Mexico
  • Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Peru, 2011-2021
  • Figure 19: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Peru
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