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サブサハラアフリカ地域の通信市場:動向・予測

Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 309647
出版日 ページ情報 英文 35 Slides
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サブサハラアフリカ地域の通信市場:動向・予測 Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
出版日: 2017年11月09日 ページ情報: 英文 35 Slides
概要

サブサハラ地域の通信市場は大幅な収益成長の可能性を秘めており、2021年には10億を超えるモバイル接続と510億米ドルのサービス収益を記録すると予測されています。

当レポートでは、サブサハラアフリカ地域の通信市場について調査し、地域全体および主要11カ国の固定・モバイル通信事業に関する各種データとその予測、市場動向・成長推進因子・予測影響因子の分析、主要各社の戦略の概要、国別の主要トピック、提言などをまとめています。

調査内容

  • 主要KPIの5カ年予測:全地域・主要11カ国
  • 市場動向・成長推進因子・予測影響因子の分析
  • オペレーター各社の戦略概要・国別トピックス
  • まとめ・提言など

調査対象KPIの例

  • 接続数
    • モバイル
      • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・M2M
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 2G・3G・4G・5G
      • スマートフォン・非スマートフォン
    • 固定
      • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイアルアップ
      • ナローバンド音声・VoBB
      • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・その他
  • 収益
    • モバイル
      • サービス・リテール
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・M2M
      • 端末音声・メッセージング・データ
    • 固定
      • サービス・リテール
      • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイアルアップ・BNS
      • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・その他
  • 音声トラフィック
    • 固定&モバイル
      • 発信時間・MoU
  • ARPU
    • モバイル
      • SIM・端末
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 端末音声・データ
目次

"Sub-Saharan Africa's telecoms market offers strong revenue growth opportunities in most markets, with more than 1.0 billion mobile connections and over USD45 billion in total service revenue forecasted by 2022."

This report analyses the most important trends that are affecting fixed and mobile telecoms services in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and examines the impact that these trends will have during the next 5 years. The increased availability of low-cost smartphones and improved coverage of 3G and 4G networks are helping to drive the demand for data connectivity and the take-up of digital services. Investment in fixed-wireless and fibre technologies will also help to drive the adoption of fixed broadband in the region.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for SSA, as a whole and for 11 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • Sub-Saharan Africa

Countries modelled individually

  • Cameroon
  • Côte d'Ivoire
  • Ghana
  • Kenya
  • Nigeria
  • Rwanda
  • South Africa
  • Sudan
  • Tanzania
  • Uganda
  • Zambia

Countries not modelled individually,
but modelled as part of the region as a whole

  • Angola
  • Benin
  • Botswana
  • Burkina Faso
  • Burundi
  • Cape Verde
  • Central African Republic
  • Chad
  • Comoros
  • Congo (Brazzaville)
  • Democratic Republic of Congo
  • Djibouti
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Eritrea
  • Ethiopia
  • Gabon
  • Gambia
  • Guinea
  • Guinea-Bissau
  • Lesotho
  • Liberia
  • Madagascar
  • Malawi
  • Mali
  • Mauritania
  • Mauritius
  • Mayotte
  • Mozambique
  • Namibia
  • Niger
  • Réunion
  • São Tomé and Principe
  • Senegal
  • Seychelles
  • Sierra Leone
  • Somalia
  • Saint Helena
  • South Sudan
  • Swaziland
  • Togo

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Karim Yaici (Senior Analyst) leads Analysys Mason's The Middle East and Africa regional research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include operators' digital strategies, new telecoms opportunities and challenges, and consumer trends in growth markets. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Karim was an associate analyst at Ovum, where he authored reports on mobile accessories and mobile applications. Prior to that, he worked as a research engineer in the Institute for Communication Systems and Vodafone. Karim holds an MSc in Information Systems Management from the University of Southampton and a PhD in human-computer interaction from the University of Surrey.

Table of Contents

  • 8.Executive summary
  • 9.Telecoms revenue will grow at a 2.7% CAGR during 2016-2022 to USD45.2 billion amidst regulatory and macroeconomic challenges
  • 10.Mobile handset data services will be the largest source of retail revenue growth in SSA between 2016 and 2022
  • 11.Fixed and mobile revenue will grow in most countries, but competition and economic challenges will have a negative impact in some countries
  • 12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 13.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15.Geographical coverage: We model eleven telecoms markets, which will account for 68.6% of SSA's overall telecoms service revenue in 2022
  • 16.Market context: The eleven countries modelled account for 51.0% of total population in SSA and 68.7% of its telecoms service revenue in 2016
  • 17.Revenue and ARPU: Mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth in the region, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate
  • 18.Mobile penetration: Connections will increase in most countries, driven by improved coverage and competition -but growth will slow down
  • 19.Mobile connections: 2G will remain the predominant technology in SSA, while 4G will account for only 11.7% of mobile connections in 2022
  • 20.Smartphones and LTE: South Africa will have the highest mobile 4G and smartphone share of handsets by 2022 -at 31.3% and 73.6%, respectively
  • 21.Mobile broadband: Mobile connectivity has been central to tablet adoption, but substitution from smartphones and Wi-Fi will increase
  • 22.Mobile ARPU: Spending on non-voice services will help to slow down ARPU decline in most countries in SSA
  • 23.Data and revenue by generation: Improved network coverage, affordability of smartphones and price reductions are helping drive usage
  • 24.Fixed services: Wireless access will retain the largest share of broadband services while fibre will experience the highest growth from a small base
  • 25.Fixed broadband: South Africa is a regional leader in the wired broadband market thanks to competition and its developed infrastructure
  • 26.Key drivers at a glance for each Sub-Saharan Africa market
  • 27.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 28.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 29.Individual country forecasts
  • 30.Ghana: Service revenue will exceed GHS5.1 billion in 2022, driven by handset data as mobile voice services remain largely flat
  • 31.Ghana -mobile: Non-voice services, including mobile money, will help to boost revenue despite modest growth in terms of SIMs
  • 32.Ghana -fixed: Household penetration of fixed services remains low despite growing interest from large players to invest in fibre
  • 33.Kenya: Service revenue will reach over KES300billion in 2022, driven by handset data services, including mobile money services
  • 34.Kenya -mobile: Demand for data and mobile financial services will encourage the continued growth of connections and revenue
  • 35.Kenya -fixed: Fibre will be increasingly positioned as an alternative DSL and a challenger to the dominant cable segment
  • 36.Nigeria: Worsening economic conditions will impact fixed and mobile markets in terms of investment and spend outlook
  • 37.Nigeria -mobile: Strong subscriber growth against the backdrop of weak economic outlook which will impact consumer spend
  • 38.Nigeria -fixed: Entry of new players and continued investments in infrastructure should help to stimulate demand for services
  • 39.South Africa: Service revenue will grow at a 1.7% CAGR during 2016-2022, driven by handset data services and fixed broadband
  • 40.South Africa -mobile: The release of LTE spectrum will improve competition while economic difficulties will weaken demand
  • 41.South Africa -fixed: Investment and market competition will help boost broadband coverage and adoption
  • 42.Tanzania: Service revenue will reach TZS3.4 trillion in 2022, and more than 40% will be from mobile handset data
  • 43.Tanzania -mobile: Rising smartphone take-up, 700MHz auction spectrum and mobile money will support revenue growth
  • 44.Tanzania -fixed: Market growth will depend on the government's ability to convert investments into service adoption
  • 45.Uganda: Mobile handset data and fixed broadband services will drive overall service revenue to almost UGX3.4 trillion by 2022
  • 46.Uganda -mobile: The shift from voice to data usage will be accompanied by revenue growth, despite low adoption of 4G
  • 47.Uganda -fixed: Wireless will continue to dominate the broadband market, while VoIP will help to offset some of the PSTN losses
  • 48.ABOUT THE AUTHOR AND ANALYSYS MASON
  • 49.About the authors
  • 50.Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 51.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 52.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016-2022
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016-2022
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 5: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2022
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the eleven countries modelled individually in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016-2022
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016-2022
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016 and 2022
  • Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 16: Data traffic (MB) and revenue per gigabyte, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 18: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 19: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2012) and future trajectory (2017-2022), by country, Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 20a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 20b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Ghana, 2012-2022
  • Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Ghana, 2016-2022
  • Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, Ghana, 2016-2022
  • Figure 24: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Ghana, 2012-2022
  • Figure 25: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Ghana, 2012-2022
  • Figure 26: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Ghana
  • Figure 27: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Ghana, 2012-2022
  • Figure 28: Fixed ASPU by service type, Ghana, 2012-2022
  • Figure 29: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Ghana
  • Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Kenya, 2012-2022
  • Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Kenya, 2016-2022
  • Figure 32: Connections by type, and growth rates, Kenya, 2016-2022
  • Figure 33: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Kenya, 2012-2022
  • Figure 34: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Kenya, 2012-2022
  • Figure 35: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Kenya
  • Figure 36: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Kenya, 2012-2022
  • Figure 37: Fixed ASPU by service type, Kenya, 2012-2022
  • Figure 38: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Kenya
  • Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Nigeria, 2012-2022
  • Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Nigeria, 2016-2022
  • Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, Nigeria, 2016-2022
  • Figure 42: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Nigeria, 2012-2022
  • Figure 43: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Nigeria, 2012-2022
  • Figure 44: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Nigeria
  • Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Nigeria, 2012-2022
  • Figure 46: Fixed ASPU by service type, Nigeria, 2012-2022
  • Figure 47: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Nigeria
  • Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), South Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 49: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, South Africa, 2016-2022
  • Figure 50: Connections by type, and growth rates, South Africa, 2016-2022
  • Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, South Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 52: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, South Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 53: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, South Africa
  • Figure 54: Fixed penetration rates by service type, South Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 55: Fixed ASPU by service type, South Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 56: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, South Africa
  • Figure 57: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Tanzania, 2012-2022
  • Figure 58: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Tanzania, 2016-2022
  • Figure 59: Connections by type, and growth rates, Tanzania, 2016-2022
  • Figure 60: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Tanzania, 2012-2022
  • Figure 61: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Tanzania, 2012-2022
  • Figure 62: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Tanzania
  • Figure 63: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Tanzania, 2012-2022
  • Figure 64: Fixed ASPU by service type, Tanzania, 2012-2022
  • Figure 65: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Uganda
  • Figure 66: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Uganda, 2012-2022
  • Figure 67: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Uganda, 2016-2022
  • Figure 68: Connections by type, and growth rates, Uganda, 2016-2022
  • Figure 69: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Uganda, 2012-2022
  • Figure 70: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Uganda, 2012-2022
  • Figure 71: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Uganda
  • Figure 72: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Uganda, 2012-2022
  • Figure 73: Fixed ASPU by service type, Uganda, 2012-2022
  • Figure 74: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Uganda
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