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市場調査レポート

サブサハラアフリカ地域の通信市場:動向・予測 (2016-2021年)

Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2016-2021

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 309647
出版日 ページ情報 英文 56 slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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サブサハラアフリカ地域の通信市場:動向・予測 (2016-2021年) Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2016-2021
出版日: 2016年10月25日 ページ情報: 英文 56 slides
概要

サブサハラ地域の通信市場は大幅な収益成長の可能性を秘めており、2021年には10億を超えるモバイル接続と510億米ドルのサービス収益を記録すると予測されています。

当レポートでは、サブサハラアフリカ地域の通信市場について調査し、地域全体および主要11カ国の固定・モバイル通信事業に関する各種データとその予測、市場動向・成長推進因子・予測影響因子の分析、主要各社の戦略の概要、国別の主要トピック、提言などをまとめています。

調査内容

  • 主要KPIの5カ年予測:全地域・主要11カ国
  • 市場動向・成長推進因子・予測影響因子の分析
  • オペレーター各社の戦略概要・国別トピックス
  • まとめ・提言など

調査対象KPIの例

  • 接続数
    • モバイル
      • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・M2M
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 2G・3G・4G・5G
      • スマートフォン・非スマートフォン
    • 固定
      • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイアルアップ
      • ナローバンド音声・VoBB
      • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・その他
  • 収益
    • モバイル
      • サービス・リテール
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・M2M
      • 端末音声・メッセージング・データ
    • 固定
      • サービス・リテール
      • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイアルアップ・BNS
      • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・その他
  • 音声トラフィック
    • 固定&モバイル
      • 発信時間・MoU
  • ARPU
    • モバイル
      • SIM・端末
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 端末音声・データ

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目次

"Sub-Saharan Africa's telecoms market offers opportunities for strong revenue growth, with more than 1.0 billion mobile connections and USD51 billion in total service revenue forecasted by 2021."

This report analyses the most-important trends that are affecting fixed and mobile telecoms services in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and examines the impact that these trends will have during the next 5 years. The increased availability of low-cost smartphones, the improved coverage of 3G, and the deployment of 4G networks, are all helping to drive the demand for data connectivity and the development of innovative digital services. In addition, investment in fixed-wireless and fibre technologies will help to drive the adoption of fixed broadband in SSA.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 175 mobile and fixed KPIs for Sub-Saharan Africa, as a whole and for 11 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators 

  Regions modelled

  • Sub-Saharan Africa

  Connections
  Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

  Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

  Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

  Revenue
  Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

  Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

  Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

  Countries not modelled individually, but modelled as part of the region as a whole

  • Angola
  • Benin
  • Botswana
  • Burkina Faso
  • Burundi
  • Cape Verde
  • Central African Republic
  • Chad
  • Comoros
  • Congo (Democratic Republic of)
  • Congo (Republic of)
  • Djibouti
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Eritrea
  • Ethiopia
  • Gabon
  • Gambia
  • Guinea
  • Guinea-Bissau
  • Lesotho
  • Liberia
  • Madagascar
  • Malawi
  • Mali
  • Mauritania
  • Mauritius
  • Mayotte
  • Mozambique
  • Namibia
  • Niger
  • Réunion
  • São Tomé and Principe
  • Senegal
  • Seychelles
  • Sierra Leone
  • Somalia
  • Saint Helena
  • Swaziland
  • Togo
  • Zimbabwe

 

 

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary
  • 9. Telecoms service revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa will grow at a 3.6% CAGR during 2015-2021 to USD51.1 billion amidst macroeconomic challenges
  • 10. Mobile handset data services will be the largest source of retail revenue growth in SSA between 2015 and 2021
  • 11. Fixed and mobile revenue will grow in most countries, but competition and lack of investment will have a negative impact in some countries
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15. Geographical coverage: We model eleven telecoms markets, which will account for 65.8% of SSA's overall telecoms service revenue in 2021
  • 16. Market context: The eleven countries modelled account for 51.3% of total population in SSA and 69.4% of its telecoms service revenue in 2015
  • 17. Revenue and ARPU: Mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth in the region, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate
  • 18. Mobile penetration: Connections will increase in most countries, driven by improved coverage and competition - but growth will slow down
  • 19. Mobile connections: 2G will remain the predominant technology in SSA, while 4G will account for only 7.3% of mobile connections in 2021
  • 20. Smartphones and LTE: South Africa will have the highest mobile 4G, and smartphone share of handsets by 2021 - at 21.9% and 55.9% respectively
  • 21. Mobile broadband: Mobile connectivity has been central to tablet adoption, but substitution from smartphones and Wi-Fi will increase
  • 22. Mobile ARPU: Key drivers at a glance table: Spending on non-voice services will help to slow down ARPU decline in most of the countries to a -2.1% CAGR through 2021
  • 23. Data and revenue by generation: Data connectivity and digital services will help to offset a slowdown in the growth of legacy services revenue
  • 24. Fixed services: Broadband will experience strong growth from a small base, with wireless access retaining the largest share through 2021
  • 25. Fixed broadband: Penetration varies widely by country, with South Africa leading in the wireline market, while Cameroon has a strong EV-DO base
  • 26. Key drivers at a glance for each Sub-Saharan Africa market
  • 27. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 28. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 29. Individual country forecasts
  • 30. Côte d'Ivoire: Service revenue will grow at a 2.4% CAGR driven by mobile voice and handset data services
  • 31. Côte d'Ivoire - mobile: Market consolidation will revitalise the market, while 3G and mobile money will drive revenue growth
  • 32. Côte d'Ivoire - fixed: Underdeveloped fixed wired infrastructure will help position LTE as a suitable fixed broadband alternative
  • 33. Ghana: Service revenue will exceed GHS4.7 billion in 2021, driven by handset data, while mobile voice services remain largely flat
  • 34. Ghana - mobile: Better access to smartphones, 3G services and mobile money platforms will underpin future revenue growth
  • 35. Ghana - fixed: A very low fixed penetration rate will make it difficult for Ghana to achieve its broadband coverage target
  • 36. Kenya: Service revenue will reach over KES252 billion in 2021, driven by handset data services, including mobile money services
  • 37. Kenya - mobile: Strong demand for mobile financial services will encourage continued growth of connections and revenue
  • 38. Kenya - fixed: Fixed broadband reach and adoption will grow steadily, supported by operators' fibre roll-out plans
  • 39. Nigeria: Strong subscriber growth is forecast against the backdrop of weaker economic conditions and security concerns
  • 40. Nigeria - mobile: Demand for mobile handset data services is set to grow fast, particularly with the release of 2600MHz spectrum
  • 41. Nigeria - fixed: Nigeria's promising broadband market requires substantial fibre investment to meet broadband coverage targets
  • 42. South Africa: Service revenue will grow at a 1.2% CAGR during 2015-2021, driven by handset data services and fixed broadband
  • 43. South Africa - mobile: Competition will impact revenue growth; the release of new spectrum in 2017 should help LTE adoption
  • 44. South Africa - fixed: Investment in fibre infrastructure and market competition will help boost broadband coverage and adoption
  • 45. Tanzania: Service revenue will reach TZS3.4 trillion in 2021, and more than 86.7% will be from mobile voice and handset data
  • 46. Tanzania - mobile: Mobile penetration will accelerate through 2021, and revenue growth will be driven by non-voice services
  • 47. Tanzania - fixed: The government's commitment to the national broadband network is expected to primarily benefit urban users
  • 48. Uganda: Mobile handset data and fixed broadband will drive service revenue to UGX3.2 trillion by 2021, after a slump in 2014
  • 49. Uganda - mobile: Mobile data demand will continue, but competition and low income will exert pressure on ARPU
  • 50. Uganda - fixed: The demand for voice and broadband services will be limited by their unaffordability and competition from mobile
  • 51. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 52. About the author
  • 53. About Analysys Mason
  • 54. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 55. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015-2021
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015-2021
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2021
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the eleven countries modelled individually in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015-2021
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015-2021
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, VoBB and IPTV connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 18: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 19: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2015) and future trajectory (2016-2021), by country, Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 20a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 20b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Côte d'Ivoire, 2011-2021
  • Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Côte d'Ivoire, 2015-2021
  • Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, Côte d'Ivoire, 2015-2021
  • Figure 24: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Côte d'Ivoire, 2011-2021
  • Figure 25: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Côte d'Ivoire, 2011-2021
  • Figure 26: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Côte d'Ivoire
  • Figure 27: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Côte d'Ivoire, 2011-2021
  • Figure 28: Fixed ASPU by service type, Côte d'Ivoire, 2011-2021
  • Figure 29: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Côte d'Ivoire
  • Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Ghana, 2011-2021
  • Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Ghana, 2015-2021
  • Figure 32: Connections by type, and growth rates, Ghana, 2015-2021
  • Figure 33: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Ghana, 2011-2021
  • Figure 34: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Ghana, 2011-2021
  • Figure 35: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Ghana
  • Figure 36: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Ghana, 2011-2021
  • Figure 37: Fixed ASPU by service type, Ghana, 2011-2021
  • Figure 38: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Ghana
  • Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Kenya, 2011-2021
  • Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Kenya, 2015-2021
  • Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, Kenya, 2015-2021
  • Figure 42: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Kenya, 2011-2021
  • Figure 43: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Kenya, 2011-2021
  • Figure 44: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Kenya
  • Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Kenya, 2011-2021
  • Figure 46: Fixed ASPU by service type, Kenya, 2011-2021
  • Figure 47: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Kenya
  • Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Nigeria, 2011-2021
  • Figure 49: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Nigeria, 2015-2021
  • Figure 50: Connections by type, and growth rates, Nigeria, 2015-2021
  • Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Nigeria, 2011-2021
  • Figure 52: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Nigeria, 2011-2021
  • Figure 53: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Nigeria
  • Figure 54: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Nigeria, 2011-2021
  • Figure 55: Fixed ASPU by service type, Nigeria, 2011-2021
  • Figure 56: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Nigeria
  • Figure 57: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), South Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 58: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, South Africa, 2015-2021
  • Figure 59: Connections by type, and growth rates, South Africa, 2015-2021
  • Figure 60: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, South Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 61: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, South Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 62: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, South Africa
  • Figure 63: Fixed penetration rates by service type, South Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 64: Fixed ASPU by service type, South Africa, 2011-2021
  • Figure 65: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, South Africa
  • Figure 66: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Tanzania, 2011-2021
  • Figure 67: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Tanzania, 2015-2021
  • Figure 68: Connections by type, and growth rates, Tanzania, 2015-2021
  • Figure 69: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Tanzania, 2011-2021
  • Figure 70: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Tanzania, 2011-2021
  • Figure 71: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Tanzania
  • Figure 72: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Tanzania, 2011-2021
  • Figure 73: Fixed ASPU by service type, Tanzania, 2011-2021
  • Figure 74: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Tanzania
  • Figure 75: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Uganda, 2011-2021
  • Figure 76: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Uganda, 2015-2021
  • Figure 77: Connections by type, and growth rates, Uganda, 2015-2021
  • Figure 78: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Uganda, 2011-2021
  • Figure 79: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Uganda, 2011-2021
  • Figure 80: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Uganda
  • Figure 81: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Uganda, 2011-2021
  • Figure 82: Fixed ASPU by service type, Uganda, 2011-2021
  • Figure 83: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Uganda
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