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市場調査レポート

サハラ以南アフリカの通信市場:動向・予測 (2015-2020年)

Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 309647
出版日 ページ情報 英文 65 slides
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サハラ以南アフリカの通信市場:動向・予測 (2015-2020年) Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
出版日: 2015年12月22日 ページ情報: 英文 65 slides
概要

当レポートでは、サハラ以南アフリカ地域の通信市場について調査し、地域全体および主要11カ国の固定・モバイル通信事業に関する各種データとその予測、市場動向・成長推進因子・予測影響因子の分析、主要各社の戦略の概要、国別の主要トピック、提言などをまとめています。

調査内容

  • 主要KPIの5カ年予測:全地域・主要11カ国
  • 市場動向・成長推進因子・予測影響因子の分析
  • オペレーター各社の戦略概要・国別トピックス
  • まとめ・提言など

調査対象KPIの例

  • 接続数
    • モバイル
      • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・M2M
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 2G・3G・4G
      • スマートフォン・非スマートフォン
    • 固定
      • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイアルアップ
      • ナローバンド音声・VoBB
      • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・その他
  • 収益
    • モバイル
      • サービス・リテール
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・M2M
      • 端末音声・メッセージング・データ
    • 固定
      • サービス・リテール
      • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイアルアップ・BNS
      • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・その他
  • 音声トラフィック
    • 固定&モバイル
      • 発信時間・MoU
  • ARPU
    • モバイル
      • SIM・端末
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 端末音声・データ

詳細調査対象国

  • カメルーン
  • コートジボワール
  • ガーナ
  • ケニヤ
  • ナイジェリア
  • ルワンダ
  • 南アフリカ
  • スーダン
  • タンザニア
  • ウガンダ
  • ザンビア

このページに掲載されている内容は最新版と異なる場合があります。詳細はお問い合わせください。

目次

"Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA's) telecoms market offers strong revenue growth opportunities, primarily from mobile services, with service revenue exceeding USD53 billion by 2020."

This report analyses the most important trends that are affecting fixed and mobile telecoms services in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and examines the impact that these trends will have during the next 5 years. The greater availability of lower-priced devices, expanding 3G and 4G coverage, improved service quality and the availability of innovative mobile data offers will help support the take-up of data services. Investment in fixed-wireless and fibre technologies will continue to drive the adoption of fixed broadband in the region.

THIS REPORT AND DATA ANNEX PROVIDE:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, and eleven key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageMajor KPIs 

Regions modelled

  • Sub-Saharan Africa

Connections
Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband2, M2M3
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

Revenue
Mobile

  • Service4, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband2, M2M3
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service4, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

 

Voice traffic
Fixed and mobile

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

ARPU
mobile

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice

Countries modelled individually

  • Cameroon1
  • Côte d'Ivoire
  • Ghana
  • Kenya
  • Nigeria
  • Rwanda1
  • South Africa
  • Sudan
  • Tanzania
  • Uganda
  • Zambia

1 New countries added in this edition of our forecast.

2 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data.

3 M2M connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.

4 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Karim Yaici (Senior Analyst) leads Analysys Mason's The Middle East and Africa regional research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include operator strategies, telecoms market developments and consumer trends in growth markets. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Karim was an associate analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media, where he authored reports on mobile accessories and mobile applications. Prior to that, he worked as a research engineer in the Centre for Communication Systems Research (CCSR) and Vodafone. Karim holds an MSc in Information Systems Management from the University of Southampton and a PhD in human-computer interaction from the University of Surrey.

Table of Contents

  • 9.Executive summary
  • 10.The telecoms service market in Sub-Saharan Africa will grow at a 2.8% CAGR between 2014 and 2020 to USD53.0 billion
  • 11.Mobile handset data services will be the largest source of retail revenue growth in SSA between 2014 and 2020
  • 12.Fixed and mobile revenue will grow in most countries, but competition and lack of investment will have a negative impact in some countries
  • 13.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 14.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 15.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 16.Geographical coverage: We model eleven telecoms markets, which will account for about 70% of SSA's overall telecoms service revenue in 2020
  • 17.Market context: The eleven countries modelled account for 52% of total population in SSA and 72% of its telecoms service revenue in 2014
  • 18.Revenue and ARPU: Mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth in the region, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate
  • 19.Mobile penetration: Connections will increase in most countries, driven by improved coverage and competition - but growth will slow down
  • 20.Mobile connections: 2G will remain the predominant technology in SSA, while LTE will account for only 5.2% of mobile connections in 2020
  • 21.Smartphones and LTE: South Africa will have the highest mobile LTE and smartphone penetration by 2020 - at 18.1% and 56.4% respectively
  • 22.Mobile ARPU: Spending on non-voice services will help to slow down ARPU decline in most of the countries to a -4.7% CAGR through 2020
  • 23.Fixed services: Broadband will experience strong growth from a small base, with wireless access retaining the largest share through 2020
  • 24.Fixed broadband: Penetration varies widely by country, with South Africa leading in the wireline market, while Cameroon has a strong EV-DO base
  • 25.Key drivers at a glance for each Sub-Saharan Africa market
  • 26.Individual country forecasts
  • 27.Cameroon: Both fixed and mobile segments offer strong growth opportunities, mostly to be driven by incumbent Camtel
  • 28.Cameroon - mobile: Mobile 3G will drive demand for mobile data services, which was made commercially available in 2015
  • 29.Cameroon - fixed: Growth will be inhibited by Camtel's monopoly and a lack of investment, while wireless access will dominate
  • 30.Côte d'Ivoire: Service revenue will grow at a 2.4% CAGR driven by mobile voice and handset data services
  • 31.Côte d'Ivoire - mobile: Imminent operator consolidation will revitalise the market, while 3G and mobile money will drive growth
  • 32.Côte d'Ivoire - fixed: Underdeveloped fixed infrastructure will help LTE-based ISPs market alternatives to customers
  • 33.Ghana: Service revenue will exceed GHS4.1 billion in 2020, driven by handset data, while legacy mobile services remain largely flat
  • 34.Ghana - mobile: Tax exemption for smartphones and availability of 3G from all six mobile operators will help drive demand for data
  • 35.Ghana - fixed: Very low fixed penetration rate will make it very difficult for Ghana to achieve its broadband coverage target
  • 36.Kenya: Service revenue will reach KES250 billion in 2020, driven by handset data services, including mobile money services
  • 37.Kenya - mobile: Strong demand for mobile services and success of mobile financial services will encourage continued growth
  • 38.Kenya - fixed: Fixed broadband adoption will grow steadily, driven by competition and supported by investment in infrastructure
  • 39.Nigeria: Strong subscriber growth is forecast against the backdrop of a weaker economic outlook and security concerns
  • 40.Nigeria - mobile: Demand for mobile handset data services is set to grow fast, offsetting a decline in voice and messaging revenue
  • 41.Nigeria - fixed: Nigeria's promising broadband market requires substantial fibre investment to meet broadband coverage targets
  • 42.Rwanda: Mobile segment offers strong growth opportunities while lack of affordability will limit fixed broadband adoption
  • 43.Rwanda - mobile: The subscriber base will expand rapidly, but revenue will lag behind because of limited service affordability
  • 44.Rwanda - fixed: Limited network infrastructure, very high pricing and low PC penetration will impede adoption of fixed broadband
  • 45.South Africa: Service revenue will grow at a 0.4% CAGR during 2014-2020 , driven by handset data services and fixed broadband
  • 46.South Africa - mobile: Competition and MTR cuts will impact revenue growth, while LTE take-up will benefit from new spectrum
  • 47.South Africa - fixed: Investment in fibre infrastructure and market competition will help boost broadband coverage and adoption
  • 48.Sudan: Negative macroeconomic conditions in the short term will impede the growth of service take-up and revenue
  • 49.Sudan - mobile: Mobile revenue growth will be moderate due to a difficult economic climate, currency devaluation and inflation
  • 50.Sudan - fixed: Lack of investment and competition will result in modest growth in revenue and the number of subscribers
  • 51.Tanzania: Service revenue will reach TZS3.1 trillion in 2020, and more than 80% will be from mobile voice and handset data revenue
  • 52.Tanzania - mobile: Mobile penetration will accelerate through 2020 and revenue growth will be driven by non-voice services
  • 53.Tanzania - fixed: The incumbent's slow progress with national broadband network roll-out is expected to impair the market
  • 54.Uganda: Mobile handset data and fixed broadband will drive service revenue to UGX3.3 trillion (about USD1 billion) by 2020
  • 55.Uganda- mobile: There is room to expand the subscriber base, but the crowded market will exert downward pressure on ARPU
  • 56.Uganda- fixed: Lack of investment and unaffordability will lead to voice market contraction and limit the demand for broadband
  • 57.Zambia: Mobile is the strongest growth opportunity and will help telecoms services retail revenue to reach ZMW4.5 billion by 2020
  • 58.Zambia - mobile: The mobile market will recover from 2015, due to operators' investments and strong demand for voice services
  • 59.Zambia - fixed: The expected growth of mobile data will dampen the demand for fixed broadband, despite investment in networks
  • 60.About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 61.About the author
  • 62.About Analysys Mason
  • 63.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 64.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014-2020
  • Figure 3: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by country, Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2020
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the eleven countries modelled individually in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014-2020
  • Figure 9: Connections by service type, and growth rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014-2020
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 16: Major forecast drivers and impact, by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015-2020
  • Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Cameroon, 2010-2020
  • Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Cameroon, 2014-2020
  • Figure 19: Connections by service type, and growth rates, Cameroon, 2014-2020
  • Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Cameroon, 2010-2020
  • Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Cameroon, 2010-2020
  • Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Cameroon
  • Figure 23: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Cameroon, 2010-2020
  • Figure 24: Fixed ASPU by service type, Cameroon, 2010-2020
  • Figure 25: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Cameroon
  • Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Côte d'Ivoire, 2010-2020
  • Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Côte d'Ivoire, 2014-2020
  • Figure 28: Connections by service type, and growth rates, Côte d'Ivoire, 2014-2020
  • Figure 29: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Côte d'Ivoire, 2010-2020
  • Figure 30: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Côte d'Ivoire, 2010-2020
  • Figure 31: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Côte d'Ivoire
  • Figure 32: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Côte d'Ivoire, 2010-2020
  • Figure 33: Fixed ASPU by service type, Côte d'Ivoire, 2010-2020
  • Figure 34: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Côte d'Ivoire
  • Figure 35: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Ghana, 2010-2020
  • Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Ghana, 2014-2020
  • Figure 37: Connections by service type, and growth rates, Ghana, 2014-2020
  • Figure 38: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Ghana, 2010-2020
  • Figure 39: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Ghana, 2010-2020
  • Figure 40: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Ghana
  • Figure 41: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Ghana, 2010-2020
  • Figure 42: Fixed ASPU by service type, Ghana, 2010-2020
  • Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Ghana
  • Figure 44: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Kenya, 2010-2020
  • Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Kenya, 2014-2020
  • Figure 46: Connections by service type, and growth rates, Kenya, 2014-2020
  • Figure 47: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Kenya, 2010-2020
  • Figure 48: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Kenya, 2010-2020
  • Figure 49: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Kenya
  • Figure 50: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Kenya, 2010-2020
  • Figure 51: Fixed ASPU by service type, Kenya, 2010-2020
  • Figure 52: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Kenya
  • Figure 53: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Nigeria, 2010-2020
  • Figure 54: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Nigeria, 2014-2020
  • Figure 55: Connections by service type, and growth rates, Nigeria, 2014-2020
  • Figure 56: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Nigeria, 2010-2020
  • Figure 57: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Nigeria, 2010-2020
  • Figure 58: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Nigeria
  • Figure 59: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Nigeria, 2010-2020
  • Figure 60: Fixed ASPU by service type, Nigeria, 2010-2020
  • Figure 61: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Nigeria
  • Figure 62: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Rwanda, 2010-2020
  • Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Rwanda, 2014-2020
  • Figure 64: Connections by service type, and growth rates, Rwanda, 2014-2020
  • Figure 65: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Rwanda, 2010-2020
  • Figure 66: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Rwanda, 2010-2020
  • Figure 67: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Rwanda
  • Figure 68: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Rwanda, 2010-2020
  • Figure 69: Fixed ASPU by service type, Rwanda, 2010-2020
  • Figure 70: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Rwanda
  • Figure 71: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), South Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 72: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, South Africa, 2014-2020
  • Figure 73: Connections by service type, and growth rates, South Africa, 2014-2020
  • Figure 74: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, South Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 75: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, South Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 76: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, South Africa
  • Figure 77: Fixed penetration rates by service type, South Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 78: Fixed ASPU by service type, South Africa, 2010-2020
  • Figure 79: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, South Africa
  • Figure 80: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Sudan, 2010-2020
  • Figure 81: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Sudan, 2014-2020
  • Figure 82: Connections by service type, and growth rates, Sudan, 2014-2020
  • Figure 83: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Sudan, 2010-2020
  • Figure 84: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Sudan, 2010-2020
  • Figure 85: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Sudan
  • Figure 86: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Sudan, 2010-2020
  • Figure 87: Fixed ASPU by service type, Sudan, 2010-2020
  • Figure 88: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Sudan
  • Figure 89: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Tanzania, 2010-2020
  • Figure 90: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Tanzania, 2014-2020
  • Figure 91: Connections by service type, and growth rates, Tanzania, 2014-2020
  • Figure 92: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Tanzania, 2010-2020
  • Figure 93: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Tanzania, 2010-2020
  • Figure 94: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Tanzania
  • Figure 95: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Tanzania, 2010-2020
  • Figure 96: Fixed ASPU by service type, Tanzania, 2010-2020
  • Figure 97: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Tanzania
  • Figure 98: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Uganda, 2010-2020
  • Figure 99: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Uganda, 2014-2020
  • Figure 100: Connections by service type, and growth rates, Uganda, 2014-2020
  • Figure 101: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Uganda, 2010-2020
  • Figure 102: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Uganda, 2010-2020
  • Figure 103: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Uganda
  • Figure 104: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Uganda, 2010-2020
  • Figure 105: Fixed ASPU by service type, Uganda, 2010-2020
  • Figure 106: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Uganda
  • Figure 107: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Zambia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 108: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Zambia, 2014-2020
  • Figure 109: Connections by service type, and growth rates, Zambia, 2014-2020
  • Figure 110: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Zambia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 111: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Zambia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 112: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Zambia
  • Figure 113: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Zambia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 114: Fixed ASPU by service type, Zambia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 115: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Zambia
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