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西欧の通信市場:中間報告アップデート 2015-2020年

Western Europe Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update 2015-2020

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 309461
出版日 ページ情報 英文 22 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=115.18円で換算しております。
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西欧の通信市場:中間報告アップデート 2015-2020年 Western Europe Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update 2015-2020
出版日: 2016年01月20日 ページ情報: 英文 22 Slides
概要

2019年にかけての通信市場では、LTEスマートフォンの影響や通信事業者にとっての収益化の機会などから、モバイル端末データ部門が最大の成長率を記録する見通しです。LTEの利用可能なサービス拡大やマルチスペクトル4G帯域の利用などがデータトラフィックを推進しています。しかし通信サービス収益は2013年から2019年にかけて、8カ国すべてにおいて下落する見通しで、特に経済的展望の不透明なイタリアやポルトガル、スペイン、また、固定・モバイルのバンドリングが勢いづく見通しのフランス、ドイツ、オランダ、スペインで顕著となるでしょう。英国市場がもっとも耐性を見せる見通しです。

当レポートでは、西欧全体および主要8カ国の通信市場について調査し、モバイルおよび固定通信関連の200を超えるKPIについて、5カ年予測を提供しています。

調査内容

  • 接続数
    • モバイル
      • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・M2M
      • プリペイド・ポストペイド
      • 2G・3G・4G
      • スマートフォン・非スマートフォン
    • 固定
      • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイヤルアップ
      • ナローバンド音・VoBB
      • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・その他
  • 収益
    • モバイル
      • サービス・リテール
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・M2M
      • 端末音声・メッセージング・データ
    • 固定
      • サービス・リテール
      • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイヤルアップ・BNS
      • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・その他、など

エグゼクティブサマリー

  • 通信サービス収益は価格競争とOTTの影響から、2019年にかけて下落する見通し
  • 2019年にかけてはLTEスマートフォンや事業者の収益化の機会などからモバイル端末データがもっとも高い成長率となる見通し
  • LTEの導入が加速する見通し
  • 前回予測からの修正:LTE接続数・固定ブロードバンド収益・モバイルブロードバンド普及率を見直し
  • 予測の見直し:2019年のサービス収益

国別予測

  • フランス:通信サービス収益の予測はほぼ変わらず・好調の固定ブロードバンドが音声への圧力を相殺
  • ドイツ:モバイル普及率の拡大が予想以上に・しかし厳しい競争が固定ブロードバンドの収益成長を抑制
  • イタリア:2019年にかけての通信サービス収益の予測はほぼ変わらず・データサービスの成長が収益の下落を和らげる
  • スペイン:予測以上に好調のLTE・固定ブロードバンドにもかかわらず、2019年にかけての通信事業者収益は下落を続ける見通し
  • 英国:LTEの導入が急速に進み、モバイルARPUの維持を助けている

著者について

このページに掲載されている内容は最新版と異なる場合があります。詳細はお問い合わせください。

目次

"We have revised the forecast expectations for Western Europe up, based on positive revenue trends in the majority of the region in 1H 2015. However, in most countries. this continues to refer to a slower decline, rather than growth."

We have revised our expectations for fixed broadband revenue in Western Europe (WE) up because ARPU trends across the region in 1H 2015 have shown that consumer spending on broadband is increasing. After an optimistic 1H 2015, we also expect a more positive trend in all aspects of mobile revenue.

This report and accompanying data annex provide:

  • an interim update of our 5-year forecast (previously published in August 2015) of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for WE as a whole and for 5 key countries
  • an explanation of the significant changes in this edition, compared with our previous forecasts.

Revisions to our previous forecasts occurred mainly for the following reasons:

  • market developments -- based on recent market events and latest reported operator and regulator data (2Q 2015)
  • changes to the competitive and regulatory environment
  • changes to the macroeconomic outlook and exchange rates used to derive revenue in constant EUR
  • changes to historical data because of newly available information.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageMajor KPIs 

Regions modelled individually

  • France
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • UK

Connections
Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable

Revenue
Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable

 

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Roman Orvisky (Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Forecasts programmes. Prior to joining Analysys Mason in November 2014, he worked in the Transaction Services department of the Royal Bank of Scotland in a customer experience internship role. During his studies, Roman focused on consumer behaviour in an online context, and has experience in churn modelling in the telecoms sector, social network analysis and browsing data analysis. Roman holds a Bachelor's degree in business from Durham University, and an MSc in marketing research from the Tilburg University School of Economics and Management.

Julia Martusewicz-Kulinska (Senior Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team, contributing mainly to the European Core Forecasts, Telecoms Market Matrix and European Country Reports programmes. She has more than 14 years of research and telecoms industry regulations experience. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, she worked for the Polish national regulatory authority as the head of the Research Division, where she was responsible for telecoms market research, and as the leader of the Telecommunications Market Analysis Department, which was accountable for co-operation between the regulatory authority and the Information Society and Media DG of the European Commission.

William Hare (Senior Analyst) is the leader of Analysys Mason's Telecoms Market Matrix research programme, which tracks and compares telecoms metrics and market shares for all the major fixed and mobile operators in Europe. He also leads the European Country Reports programme, which provides insightful reports on 30 European telecoms markets. He is a key contributor to our European Core Forecasts and Global Telecoms Forecasts programmes, specialising in business and market modelling and data analysis. William joined Analysys Mason's Research practice in 2010 after 3 years as a consultant in our Consulting practice, working directly with clients in Asia, Africa and Europe. He read mathematics at the University of Cambridge.

Table of Contents

  • 4.Executive summary and regional forecasts
  • 5.Telecoms retail revenue in Western Europe will continue to decline, but at a slower pace than previously expected
  • 6.Growth in handset data and fixed broadband revenue will be outpaced by a decline in fixed and mobile voice services
  • 7.Smartphones and LTE: 78% of handsets in Western Europe will be LTE smartphones by 2020
  • 8.Key regional changes since our previous forecast
  • 9.Forecast revision: Revenue will continue to decline, despite a more positive outlook in fixed broadband and handset data services
  • 10.Individual country forecasts
  • 11.France: Telecoms service revenue is almost unchanged as higher data revenue will be offset by faster mobile voice revenue decline
  • 12.Germany: Mobile revenue will return to growth as convergence discounts disappear and operators monetise 4G usage
  • 13.Italy: Telecoms service revenue will decline slower thanks to faster handset data and fixed broadband revenue growth
  • 14.Spain: There will be faster revenue stabilisation due to LTE, driven by growth in data usage and increasing fixed broadband revenue
  • 15.United Kingdom: Total service revenue will decline more slowly than expected, boosted by faster growth in fixed broadband
  • 16.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 17.About the authors
  • 18.About Analysys Mason
  • Research from Analysys Mason
  • Consulting from Analysys Mason
  • List of figures
  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Western Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 3: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 4: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast for Western Europe
  • Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Western Europe, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, France, 2010-2020
  • Figure 9: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, France
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Germany, 2010-2020
  • Figure 11: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Germany
  • Figure 12: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Italy, 2010-2020
  • Figure 13: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Italy
  • Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Spain, 2010-2020
  • Figure 15: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Spain
  • Figure 16: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, UK, 2010-2020
  • Figure 17: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, UK
  • 4.Executive summary and regional forecasts
  • 5.Telecoms retail revenue in Western Europe will continue to decline, but at a slower pace than previously expected
  • 6.Growth in handset data and fixed broadband revenue will be outpaced by a decline in fixed and mobile voice services
  • 7.Smartphones and LTE: 78% of handsets in Western Europe will be LTE smartphones by 2020
  • 8.Key regional changes since our previous forecast
  • 9.Forecast revision: Revenue will continue to decline, despite a more positive outlook in fixed broadband and handset data services
  • 10.Individual country forecasts
  • 11.France: Telecoms service revenue is almost unchanged as higher data revenue will be offset by faster mobile voice revenue decline
  • 12.Germany: Mobile revenue will return to growth as convergence discounts disappear and operators monetise 4G usage
  • 13.Italy: Telecoms service revenue will decline slower thanks to faster handset data and fixed broadband revenue growth
  • 14.Spain: There will be faster revenue stabilisation due to LTE, driven by growth in data usage and increasing fixed broadband revenue
  • 15.United Kingdom: Total service revenue will decline more slowly than expected, boosted by faster growth in fixed broadband
  • 16.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 17.About the authors
  • 18.About Analysys Mason
  • Research from Analysys Mason
  • Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Western Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 3: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 4: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast for Western Europe
  • Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Western Europe, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, France, 2010-2020
  • Figure 9: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, France
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Germany, 2010-2020
  • Figure 11: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Germany
  • Figure 12: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Italy, 2010-2020
  • Figure 13: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Italy
  • Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Spain, 2010-2020
  • Figure 15: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Spain
  • Figure 16: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, UK, 2010-2020
  • Figure 17: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, UK
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