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先進アジア太平洋地域の電気通信市場:動向・予測 2017-2022年

Developed Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 298561
出版日 ページ情報 英文 53 slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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先進アジア太平洋地域の電気通信市場:動向・予測 2017-2022年 Developed Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
出版日: 2017年11月02日 ページ情報: 英文 53 slides
概要

先進アジア太平洋地域 (DVAP) における通信小売り収益は、2017年から2022年の予測期間中にCAGR (年間複合成長率) 1%以下が予測されており、停滞する見込みです。

当レポートでは、先進アジア太平洋地域 (DVAP) における通信市場の最新の発展動向について分析し、地域全体および国別による180以上のモバイル・固定の主要業績指標 (KPI) の5カ年予測、各モバイル・固定サービスの動向・促進因子・予測の前提条件の詳細分析、オペレーター戦略の概要、およびモバイル・固定オペレーターにとっての主な影響・提言などをまとめています。

エグゼクティブサマリー

地域別の予測・各国比較

  • 対象地域:2022
  • 年までに、4G/5Gは全モバイル接続の98%を構成し (IoTを除く)、FBBの世帯普及率は95%に到達
  • 市場背景:2016年の先進アジア太平洋地域 (DVAP) において、SIMの人口普及率は120%を上回り、固定ブロードバンドの世帯普及率はゆっくりと86%へ拡大
  • 収益・ARPU:ブロードバンドサービスおよび高いスマートフォン普及率は、引き続き音声収益を押し下げる見込み
  • モバイル普及率:DVAPにおけるアクティブモバイルSIM普及率の成長は安定を維持すると見られ、2022年までに124%へ到達
  • モバイル接続:4Gモバイル接続数は2019年まで引き続き増加すると見られ、その後5Gに置き換えられるため減少が始まる
  • スマートフォンおよびLTE:DVAPにおける端末全体に占めるスマートフォンのシェアは2016年に71%へ達し、2022年には90%を上回る見込み
  • モバイルブロードバンド:2022年までにDVAPにおけるモバイルブロードバンド接続数は2,270万となり、その99%が4G/5G
  • モバイルARPU:DVAP地域のモバイルARPUは緩やかに成長し、予測期間末までに一月あたり33米ドルへ到達する見込み
  • データ・収益、世代別:モバイルデータトラフィックは安定した新技術に支えられて成長が見込まれ、2022年に32.5EBへ到達
  • 固定サービス:FTTP/Bは引き続き独占的なブロードバンド技術であり、DVAP地域における収益成長を牽引
  • 固定ブロードバンド:高帯域幅の需要、NBNプラン、および競合が2022年の固定ブロードバンド世帯普及率を95%まで押し上げる

国別の予測

  • オーストラリア
  • 香港
  • 日本
  • シンガポール
  • 韓国
  • 台湾

著者について

図表リスト

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目次

"Total telecoms retail revenue in DVAP will grow at a CAGR of less than 1% during the forecast period, which indicates that the market is stagnating."

Total telecoms retail revenue in developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP) will stagnate during 2017-2022, growing at a CAGR of only 0.9% - the same rate of growth for the period between 2012 and 2016. Mobile handset data will continue to lead revenue growth during the forecast period, while voice services and fixed narrowband will continue to decline.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for DVAP, as a whole and for six key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • Developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP)

Countries modelled individually

  • Australia
  • Hong Kong
  • Japan
  • Singapore
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan

Countries not modelled individually,
but modelled as part of the region as a whole

  • Brunei
  • French Polynesia
  • Guam
  • Macau
  • New Caledonia
  • New Zealand
  • Northern Mariana Islands

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Sherrie Huang (Research Programme Head, Asia-Pacific) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme and is based in our Singapore office. Her research covers the entire Asia-Pacific region, and includes market data and forecasts for 17key markets, as well as thematic reports covering key telecoms industry trends in the region including IoT/M2M, video and multi-play, and enterprise services. Sherrie has extensive expertise in fixed and mobile services and has covered the telecoms industry from various angles, including strategy, market sizing and forecast, end-user research, cost modelling and regulatory issues. She previously worked at IDC, Ovum and ZTE in various Asia-Pacific countries.

Cai Shiyu (Research Analyst) contributes to Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme, and is based in our Singapore office. He had been involved in data collection process as well as analysis of telecoms market trends in developed and emerging Asia-Pacific. Before joining Analysys Mason, he worked as an intern with business development division of SAP, and conducted qualitative and quantitative research on cloud computing market. Shiyu holds a Bachelor's degree in finance and operations management at NUS Business School, Singapore.

Table of Contents

  • 8.Executive summary
  • 9.Overall telecoms service revenue in developed Asia-Pacific will grow slowly, surpassing USD200 billion in 2022
  • 10.Telecoms retail revenue in DVAP will grow by USD10 billion between 2016 and 2022, thanks to strong mobile handset data revenue growth
  • 11.Mobile revenue will grow in all DVAP countries except Hong Kong; only South Korea will have growth in fixed line business during 2016-2022
  • 12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets in DVAP
  • 13.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15.Geographical coverage: By 2022, 4G/5G will account for 98% of all mobile connections (excluding IoT); FBB household penetration will reach 95%
  • 16.Market context: SIM population penetration exceeded 120% and fixed broadband household penetration slowly grew to 86% in DVAP in 2016
  • 17.Revenue and ARPU: Broadband services and high smartphone penetration will continue to depress voice revenue
  • 18.Mobile penetration: Active mobile SIM penetration growth in the DVAP region will remain steady, reaching 124% by 2022
  • 19.Mobile connections: the share of 4G mobile connections will continue to increase until 2019, and then start to decline as it is replaced by 5G
  • 20.Smartphones and LTE: The smartphone share of total handsets in DVAP reached 71% in 2016 and will surpass 90% in 2022
  • 21.Mobile broadband: The number of mobile broadband connections in DVAP will reach 22.7 million by 2022, 99% of these will be 4G/5G
  • 22.Mobile ARPU: mobile ARPU for the DVAP region will grow slowly overall to USD33 per month by the end of the forecast period
  • 23.Data and revenue by generation: Mobile data traffic will grow steadily, supported by new technologies, to reach 32.5EB in 2022
  • 24.Fixed services: FTTP/B will continue to be the dominant broadband technology, leading to revenue growth in the DVAP region
  • 25.Fixed broadband: High bandwidth demand, NBN plans and competition will drive fixed broadband household penetration to 95% in 2022
  • 26.Key drivers at a glance for each market in developed Asia-Pacific
  • 27.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 28.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 29.Individual country forecasts
  • 30.Australia: Mobile data and fixed broadband revenue growth will mitigate traditional revenue decline during the forecast period
  • 31.Australia-mobile: Termination rate reduction in 2016 will affect service revenue growth in the forecast period
  • 32.Australia -fixed: Enhanced network coverage and intensified market competition will drive fixed broadband penetration growth
  • 33.Hong Kong: Intensified competition will result in a retail revenue decline overall during the forecast period
  • 34.Hong Kong -mobile: Competition will intensify in the mobile market after HKBN's entrance, resulting in a decline in ARPU
  • 35.Hong Kong -fixed: IPTV is becoming an engine for growth, thanks to an enriched content portfolio and TV box bundles
  • 36.Japan: IoT will contribute to mobile penetration growth; technology improvements will further increase fixed penetration
  • 37.Japan -mobile: Data-centric pricing will drive data revenue growth, compensating for voice and messaging revenue declines
  • 38.Japan -fixed: Technology improvements, such as the deployment of 5G BFWA, are expected to increase the rate of FBB adoption
  • 39.Singapore: The emergence of new operators in mobile and fixed markets will affect revenue growth during the forecast period
  • 40.Singapore -mobile: The entrance of a fourth MNO will increase competition and lead to a higher rate of 4G adoption
  • 41.Singapore -fixed: The market will be more saturated with limited growth in FBB subscriber numbers and revenue
  • 42.South Korea: Mobile handset data and IPTV revenue growth will be the main contributors to an increase in overall retail revenue
  • 43.South Korea -mobile: Connections are expected to be on 4G/5G by 2022; increasing OTT usage will drive data revenue growth
  • 44.South Korea -fixed: IPTV subscriber base will continue to grow during forecast period, and drive fixed revenue growth
  • 45.Taiwan: The introduction of unlimited data plans will continue to affect the revenue of other mobile and fixed services
  • 46.Taiwan -mobile: Unlimited data plans will lead to high data usage per connection, but will negatively affect revenue growth
  • 47.Taiwan -fixed: Operators will offer more-attractive plans and lead to FTTP/B subscriber growth during the forecast period
  • 48.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 49.About the authors
  • 50.Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 51.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 52.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2016-2022
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2016-2022
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for developed Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 5: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2022
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the six countries modelled individually in developed Asia-Pacific, 2016
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2016-2022
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2016-
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding M2M), developed Asia-Pacific, 2016 and 2022
  • Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 18: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2022
  • Figure 19: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2012) and future trajectory (2017-2022), by country, developed Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 20a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 20b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Australia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Australia, 2016-2022
  • Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, Australia, 2016-2022
  • Figure 24: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Australia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 25: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Australia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 26: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Australia
  • Figure 27: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Australia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 28: Fixed ASPU by service type, Australia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 29: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Australia
  • Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Hong Kong, 2012-2022
  • Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Hong Kong, 2016-2022
  • Figure 32: Connections by type, and growth rates, Hong Kong, 2016-2022
  • Figure 33: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Hong Kong, -2022
  • Figure 34: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Hong Kong, 2012-2022
  • Figure 35: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Hong Kong
  • Figure 36: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Hong Kong, 2012-2022
  • Figure 37: Fixed ASPU by service type, Hong Kong, 2012-2022
  • Figure 38: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Hong Kong
  • Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Japan, 2012-2022
  • Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Japan, 2016-2022
  • Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, Japan, 2016-2022
  • Figure 42: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Japan, 2012-
  • Figure 43: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Japan, 2012-2022
  • Figure 44: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Japan
  • Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Japan, 2012-2022
  • Figure 46: Fixed ASPU by service type, Japan, 2012-2022
  • Figure 47: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Japan
  • Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Singapore, 2012-2022
  • Figure 49: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Singapore, 2016-2022
  • Figure 50: Connections by type, and growth rates, Singapore, 2016-2022
  • Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Singapore, -2022
  • Figure 52: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Singapore, 2012-2022
  • Figure 53: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Singapore
  • Figure 54: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Singapore, 2012-2022
  • Figure 55: Fixed ASPU by service type, Singapore, 2012-2022
  • Figure 56: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Singapore
  • Figure 57: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), South Korea, 2012-2022
  • Figure 58: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, South Korea, 2016-2022
  • Figure 59: Connections by type, and growth rates, South Korea, 2016-2022
  • Figure 60: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, South Korea, -2022
  • Figure 61: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, South Korea, 2012-2022
  • Figure 62: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, South Korea
  • Figure 63: Fixed penetration rates by service type, South Korea, 2012-2022
  • Figure 64: Fixed ASPU by service type, South Korea, 2012-2022
  • Figure 65: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, South Korea
  • Figure 66: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Taiwan, 2012-2022
  • Figure 67: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Taiwan, 2016-2022
  • Figure 68: Connections by type, and growth rates, Taiwan, 2016-2022
  • Figure 69: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Taiwan, 2012-
  • Figure 70: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Taiwan, 2012-2022
  • Figure 71: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Taiwan
  • Figure 72: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Taiwan, 2012-2022
  • Figure 73: Fixed ASPU by service type, Taiwan, 2012-2022
  • Figure 74: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Taiwan
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