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市場調査レポート

先進アジア太平洋地域の電気通信市場:動向・予測 2015-2020年

Developed Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 298561
出版日 ページ情報 英文 49 slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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先進アジア太平洋地域の電気通信市場:動向・予測 2015-2020年 Developed Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
出版日: 2015年10月26日 ページ情報: 英文 49 slides
概要

当レポートでは、先進アジア太平洋地域 (DVAP) における通信市場の最新の発展動向について分析し、地域全体および国別による100以上のモバイル・固定の主要業績指標 (KPI) のアップデートおよび5カ年予測、予測を支える主な促進因子・前提条件の説明、および前回予測からの変更点についての説明などをまとめています。

エグゼクティブサマリー

地域別の予測・各国比較

  • 対象地域: FTTH/B および LTE が先進アジア太平洋地域で支配的になると見られ、商用5Gサービスは2020年までに開始される予測
  • 市場背景:通信サービス収益はGDPの23%を構成し、先進アジア太平洋地域における1月あたりの平均小売支出は65米ドル
  • 収益・ARPU:継続的なサービスのアップグレード・革新により、通信サービス収益は増加する見込み
  • モバイル普及率:SIMの人口普及率は全ての先進アジア太平洋地域で100%を上回っており、香港は最も高く200%以上
  • モバイル接続:4Gは2020年におけるモバイル接続のほとんどを構成し、オペレーターは技術進歩のパイオニア
  • スマートフォン・LTE:4Gサービス・手ごろなデバイスの需要に促進され、スマートフォンは2020年までに端末の87%以上を構成する予測
  • モバイルARPU:モバイルARPUは価格圧力のバランスとして安定性を維持し、パッケージにバンドルされるサービス価値を上げる
  • 固定サービス:固定ブロードバンドの接続数は音声の接続数上回り、2014年の65%から2020年には75%へと急増
  • 固定ブロードバンド:政府イニシアチブは直接的または間接的にブロードバンド発展を促進するが、長い目で見ると市場は飽和する見込み
  • 先進アジア太平洋地域市場の主な促進因子の概要

国別の予測

  • オーストラリア
  • 香港
  • 日本
  • シンガポール
  • 韓国
  • 台湾

著者について

図表リスト

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目次

"Operators in DVAP will continue to invest in networks in order to maintain a competitive edge while carefully balancing the financial pressure."

The developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP) region has matured telecoms markets with advanced technologies, innovative service offerings and leading network deployments. This report shows our latest forecast from 2015 to 2020, and explains recent market developments and operator investments in the region.

THIS REPORT AND DATA ANNEX PROVIDE:

  • a full update of our 5-year forecast of more than 100 mobile and fixed key performance indicators (KPIs) for DVAP as a whole and for six individual countries
  • an explanation of the key drivers and assumptions that underpin the forecasts, along with discussion of the implications for fixed and mobile operators
  • an explanation of the significant changes to our previous forecasts for the region.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageMajor KPIs 

Regions modelled

  • Developed Asia-Pacific

Countries modelled individually

  • Australia
  • Hong Kong
  • Japan
  • Singapore
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan

Countries not modelled individually, but modelled as part of the region as a whole

  • Brunei
  • French Polynesia
  • Guam
  • Macau
  • New Caledonia
  • New Zealand
  • Northern Mariana Islands

Connections
Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband1, M2M2
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

Voice traffic
Fixed and mobile

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue
Mobile

  • Service3, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband1, M2M2
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service3, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

ARPU
Mobile

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice

 

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice

1 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data.

2 M2M connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.

3 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Sherrie Huang (Research Programme head) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme and is based in our Singapore office. Her research covers the entire Asia-Pacific region, and includes market data and forecasts for 15 key markets as well as thematic reports covering key telecoms industry trends in the region. Sherrie has extensive expertise in fixed and mobile services and has covered the telecoms industry from various angles, including strategy, market sizing and forecasting, end-user case studies, cost modelling and regulatory issues. She previously worked at IDC, Ovum and ZTE in various Asia-Pacific countries in product marketing, project management, and research and consulting roles.

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary
  • 9. DVAP markets are mature and stable, and telecoms retail revenue will grow from USD189 billion in 2014 to over USD200 billion in 2020
  • 10. Mobile handset data, fixed broadband and IPTV will be the three main drivers for telecoms retail revenue growth in DVAP
  • 11. Japan and South Korea have the biggest revenue and largest subscriber bases
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15. Geographical coverage: FTTH/B and LTE will dominate in DVAP, and commercial 5G services are expected to launch by 2020
  • 16. Market context: Telecoms service revenue accounts for 23% of GDP, and the average monthly retail spend in DVAP is USD65
  • 17. Revenue and ARPU: Telecoms service revenue will grow, thanks to continuous service upgrades and innovation
  • 18. Mobile penetration: SIM population penetration is over 100% in all countries in DVAP, and is highest in Hong Kong at more than 200%
  • 19. Mobile connections: 4G will account for most of the mobile connections in 2020 and operators are pioneers in technology advancement
  • 20. Smartphones and LTE: Smartphones will account for 87% of handsets by 2020, driven by the demand for 4G services and affordable devices
  • 21. Mobile ARPU: Mobile ARPU will remain stable as a balance of the price pressure and the increasing service value bundled in the packages
  • 22. Fixed services: The number connections of fixed broadband over that of voice will increase fast from 65% in 2014 to 75% in 2020
  • 23. Fixed broadband: Government initiatives directly or indirectly drive broadband development, but in the long run the markets will saturate
  • 24. Key drivers at a glance for each Developed Asia-Pacific market
  • 25. Individual country forecasts
  • 26. Australia: Thanks to growth in broadband, M2M and business network services, revenue will be stable in this matured market
  • 27. Australia - mobile: 4G penetration will increase rapidly in the near future, driven by operator investment and consumer demand
  • 28. Australia- fixed: nbn roll-out continues to focus on the less-advanced but more-efficient technologies
  • 29. Hong Kong: Operators will respond to competition pressure by continuing to differentiate themselves in various ways
  • 30. Hong Kong - mobile: Mobile ARPU decline will be eased by increasing speed, bundling, contract subsidies and new services
  • 31. Hong Kong- fixed: The decline in fixed voice usage will stabilise but penetration and revenue will decline quickly
  • 32. Japan: Continues to be one of the most advanced telecoms markets with operators leading in technologies and innovation
  • 33. Japan - mobile: Higher bandwidth and bundling help compensate for the voice and messaging decline and drive revenue growth
  • 34. Japan - fixed: ARPU drops as operators reduce prices in order to attract subscribers, but that will stabilise in the long term
  • 35. Singapore: Competition will continue to intensify, and multi-play offerings will remain mainstream
  • 36. Singapore - mobile: The migration from 2G to 3G and 4G will accelerate, and market competition will increase
  • 37. Singapore - fixed: Bundling is the norm and operators are trying to differentiate themselves using their strengths
  • 38. South Korea: Mobile handset data will account for more than half of the telecoms retail revenue in 2020
  • 39. South Korea - mobile: Operator investments and 4G marketing efforts will drive the migration to LTE and boost mobile traffic
  • 40. South Korea - fixed: FTTB drives fixed broadband growth, and IPTV will reach 80% of the population
  • 41. Taiwan: New services will drive revenue growth and compensate for traditional service revenue decline
  • 42. Taiwan - mobile: Mobile broadband connections will increase at the expense of ARPU, while LTE connections will grow rapidly
  • 43. Taiwan - fixed: New services will develop the broadband market further and ARPU for premium services will be sustained
  • 44. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 45. About the author
  • 46. About Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020
  • Figure 3: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by country, developed Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for developed Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2020
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the 6 countries modelled individually in developed Asia-Pacific, 2014
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), developed Asia-Pacific, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020
  • Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020
  • Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020
  • Figure 16: Major forecast drivers and impact, by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015-2020
  • Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Australia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Australia, 2014-2020
  • Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, Australia, 2014-2020
  • Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Australia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Australia, 2010-20201
  • Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Australia
  • Figure 23: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Australia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 24: Fixed ASPU by service type, Australia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 25: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Australia
  • Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Hong Kong, 2010-2020
  • Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Hong Kong, 2014-2020
  • Figure 28: Connections by type, and growth rates, Hong Kong, 2014-2020
  • Figure 29: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Hong Kong, 2010-2020
  • Figure 30: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Hong Kong, 2010-2020
  • Figure 31: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Hong Kong
  • Figure 32: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Hong Kong, 2010-2020
  • Figure 33: Fixed ASPU by service type, Hong Kong, 2010-2020
  • Figure 34: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Hong Kong
  • Figure 35: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Japan, 2010-2020
  • Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Japan, 2014-2020
  • Figure 37: Connections by type, and growth rates, Japan, 2014-2020
  • Figure 38: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Japan, 2010-2020
  • Figure 39: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Japan, 2010-20201
  • Figure 40: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Japan
  • Figure 41: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Japan, 2010-2020
  • Figure 42: Fixed ASPU by service type, Japan, 2010-2020
  • Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Japan
  • Figure 44: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Singapore, 2010-2020
  • Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Singapore, 2014-2020
  • Figure 46: Connections by type, and growth rates, Singapore, 2014-2020
  • Figure 47: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Singapore, 2010-2020
  • Figure 48: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Singapore, 2010-2020
  • Figure 49: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Singapore
  • Figure 50: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Singapore, 2010-2020
  • Figure 51: Fixed ASPU by service type, Singapore, 2010-2020
  • Figure 52: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Singapore
  • Figure 53: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), South Korea, 2010-2020
  • Figure 54: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, South Korea, 2014-2020
  • Figure 55: Connections by type, and growth rates, South Korea, 2014-2020
  • Figure 56: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, South Korea, 2010-2020
  • Figure 57: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, South Korea, 2010-2020
  • Figure 58: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, South Korea
  • Figure 59: Fixed penetration rates by service type, South Korea, 2010-2020
  • Figure 60: Fixed ASPU by service type, South Korea, 2010-2020
  • Figure 61: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, South Korea
  • Figure 62: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Taiwan, 2010-2020
  • Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Taiwan, 2014-2020
  • Figure 64: Connections by type, and growth rates, Taiwan, 2014-2020
  • Figure 65: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Taiwan, 2010-2020
  • Figure 66: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Taiwan, 2010-2020
  • Figure 67: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Taiwan
  • Figure 68: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Taiwan, 2010-2020
  • Figure 69: Fixed ASPU by service type, Taiwan, 2010-2020
  • Figure 70: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Taiwan
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