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市場調査レポート

先進アジア太平洋地域の電気通信市場:動向・予測 2016-2021年

Developed Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 298561
出版日 ページ情報 英文 53 slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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先進アジア太平洋地域の電気通信市場:動向・予測 2016-2021年 Developed Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日: 2016年11月14日 ページ情報: 英文 53 slides
概要

先進アジア太平洋地域 (DVAP) における通信小売り収益は、2015年の1,720億米ドルから2021年には1,890億米ドルへ成長する見込みです。DVAPにおける通信小売り収益のCAGR (年間複合成長率) は、2011年から2015年にかけては1.2%と緩やかでしたが、2015年から2021年にかけては1.5%と加速する見込みです。

当レポートでは、先進アジア太平洋地域 (DVAP) における通信市場の最新の発展動向について分析し、地域全体および国別による175以上のモバイル・固定の主要業績指標 (KPI) の5カ年予測、各モバイル・固定サービスの動向・促進因子・予測の前提条件の詳細分析、オペレーター戦略の概要、およびモバイル・固定オペレーターにとっての主な影響・提言などをまとめています。

エグゼクティブサマリー

地域別の予測・各国比較

  • 対象地域:2021年までに、4G/5Gはモバイル接続の90%を構成し、FTTBの世帯普及率は93%に達する見込み
  • 市場背景:2015年において、月平均通信小売り支出は一人当たり58.9米ドルであり、サービス収益はGDPの2.3%に貢献
  • 収益・ARPU:先進アジア太平洋地域 (DVAP) の通信小売り収益は、速いモバイルデータ速度、新サービスおよびバンドリングに促進され、健全な成長を維持
  • モバイル普及率:DVAP諸国におけるSIMの人口普及率は平均123%で安定し、格差は狭まる見込み
  • モバイル接続:2Gは徐々に廃止される過程にあり、4Gと5Gは2021年におけるモバイル接続の95%を構成する見込み
  • スマートフォンおよび4G/5G:アプリケーション利用の増加および4G/5G移行からの恩恵を受け、2021年までに端末の10分の9がスマートフォンとなる見込み
  • モバイルブロードバンド:2021年までにDVAPにおけるモバイルブロードバンド接続は2500万となり、その98%が4G/5Gとなる見込み
  • モバイルARPU:モバイルARPUはDVAPで安定成長を維持し、予測期間末までに一月あたり35米ドルに達する
  • データ・収益、世代別:技術移行が続き、接続当たりのデータトラフィックは急成長し、2021年に7.5GBへ達する
  • 固定サービス:FTTP/Bは2011年から2015年の独占的なブロードバンド技術であり、この傾向は予測期間を通して継続する見込み
  • 固定ブロードバンド:家庭の固定ブロードバンド普及率は、帯域幅の需要およびNBNプランに促進され、2015年の84%から2021年の93%へ拡大する見込み
  • 各先進アジア太平洋地域市場の主な促進因子の概要

国別の予測

  • オーストラリア
  • 香港
  • 日本
  • シンガポール
  • 韓国
  • 台湾

著者について

図表リスト

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目次

"Telecoms retail revenue for the developed Asia-Pacific region will grow steadily from USD172 billion in 2015 to USD189 billion in 2021."

Challenges remain in the developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP) telecoms market, including market saturation and the increasing penetration of OTT services. Total telecoms retail revenue in DVAP grew slowly from 2011 to 2015 at a 1.2% CAGR, but will accelerate to a 1.5% CAGR between 2015 to 2021, thanks to service improvements. Mobile handset data will continue to contribute the most revenue, and its share of total retail revenue will grow steadily, reaching 51% in 2021.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 175 mobile and fixed KPIs for DVAP, as a whole and for six key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

  Region modelled

  • Developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP)

  Countries modelled individually

  • Australia
  • Hong Kong
  • Japan
  • Singapore
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan

  Countries not modelled individually,
but modelled as part of the region as a whole

  • Brunei
  • French Polynesia
  • Guam
  • Macau
  • New Caledonia
  • New Zealand
  • Northern Mariana Islands

  Connections

  Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

  Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

  Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

  Revenue

  Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

  Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

  Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Sherrie Huang (Research Programme Head, Asia Pacific) Sherrie Huang is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme and is based in our Singapore office. Her research covers the entire Asia-Pacific region, and includes market data and forecasts for 17 key markets, as well as thematic reports covering key telecoms industry trends in the region including IoT/M2M, video and multi-play, and enterprise services. Sherrie has extensive expertise in fixed and mobile services and has covered the telecoms industry from various angles, including strategy, market sizing and forecast, end-user research, cost modelling and regulatory issues. She previously worked at IDC, Ovum and ZTE in various Asia-Pacific countries. Sherrie has a master's degree in computer science from the National University of Singapore (NUS) and a bachelor's degree in Electrical Engineering from Xiamen University, China. She speaks Mandarin, English, Cantonese and Hokkien.

Harsh Upadhyay (Analyst) Harsh contributes to Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme, and is based in our Singapore office. His research focuses on market tracking, competitive assessment, data forecasting, next-generation services and consumer behaviour analysis in the Asia-Pacific telecoms market. He also supports consulting projects and presents at industry events. Harsh's experience in the TMT industry is diverse, and he has a detailed understanding of the telecoms market in the region. He has previously worked with Frost & Sullivan and IDC as an analyst and consultant, and his clients include leading ICT firms and government bodies. Harsh holds a Master's and Bachelor's degree in Business Management from India.

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary
  • 9. Telecoms retail revenue for developed Asia-Pacific will grow steadily from USD172 billion in 2015 to USD189 billion in 2021
  • 10. Mobile handset data will be the main growth driver in DVAP, followed by fixed broadband and IPTV, while voice service revenue will decline most
  • 11. Japan continues to have the largest subscriber base and revenue size across DVAP countries, followed by South Korea and Australia
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15. Geographical coverage: By 2021, 4G/5G will account for 90% of mobile connections (excluding IoT); FTTB household penetration will reach 93%
  • 16. Market context: In 2015, average monthly telecoms retail spend was USD58.9 per person and service revenue contributed to 2.3% of GDP
  • 17. Revenue and ARPU: DVAP telecoms retail revenue will maintain healthy growth, driven by higher mobile data speeds, new services and bundling
  • 18. Mobile penetration: SIM population penetration rates across DVAP countries will stabilise at an average of 123%, with gaps narrowing
  • 19. Mobile connections: 2G is in the process of being phased out; 4G and 5G will account for 95% of all mobile connections in 2021
  • 20. Smartphones and 4G/5G: 9 out of 10 handsets will be smartphones by 2021, benefiting from growing apps usage and the migration to 4G/5G
  • 21. Mobile broadband: There will be 25 million mobile broadband connections in DVAP by 2021, and 98% of which will be 4G/5G
  • 22. Mobile ARPU: Mobile ARPU will maintain steady growth in DVAP, reaching USD35 per month by the end of the forecast period
  • 23. Data and revenue by generation: Technology migration continues and data traffic per connection will grow rapidly, reaching 7.5GB in 2021
  • 24. Fixed services: FTTP/B was the dominant broadband technology from 2011 to 2015; this trend will continue throughout the forecast period
  • 25. Fixed broadband: household fixed broadband penetration will grow from 84% in 2015 to 93% in 2021, driven by bandwidth demand and NBN plans
  • 26. Key drivers at a glance for each developed Asia-Pacific market
  • 27. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 28. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 29. Individual country forecasts
  • 30. Australia: Mobile data and IoT services will help to maintain positive revenue growth rates during the forecast period
  • 31. Australia - mobile: Densification of 4G networks will result in mobile data revenue growth
  • 32. Australia - fixed: NBN has successfully increased the number of premises passed, driving up FBB adoption; this growth will slow
  • 33. Hong Kong: Competition will intensify in the enterprise segment, while operators focus on partnerships and advanced technologies
  • 34. Hong Kong - mobile: Mobile penetration will drop in the near future, and ARPU will slowly decline, despite service upgrades
  • 35. Hong Kong- fixed: Competition will intensify in the enterprise segment; operators are competing and partnering with OTTs
  • 36. Japan: Service improvement and technology upgrades will compensate for the decline in traditional services
  • 37. Japan - mobile: IoT will drive mobile penetration growth, but 4G will continue to play an important role during the forecast period
  • 38. Japan - fixed: NGA will continue to grow steadily, but IPTV will only achieve mild growth
  • 39. Singapore: Declining voice and messaging revenue will pull down the overall telecoms retail revenue growth rate to negative
  • 40. Singapore - mobile: Increasing competition in the mobile market will hamper effective 4G data monetisation
  • 41. Singapore - fixed: A high broadband household penetration and declining ASPU will result in declining market revenue
  • 42. South Korea: Despite competition pressure, operators continue
  • to improve user experience and invest in technology innovation
  • 43. South Korea - mobile: Operators will use new spectrum to boost bandwidth and improve user experience
  • 44. South Korea - fixed: Operators continue to invest in network upgrades and improve bandwidth
  • 45. Taiwan: Service improvements and market consolidation is occurring, driven by increasing competition pressure
  • 46. Taiwan - mobile: 4G adoption was boosted by the cessation of WiMAX services, and will be boosted further by 2G termination
  • 47. Taiwan- fixed: Operators are under pressure to innovate, to provide better services, and to differentiate
  • 48. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 49. About the authors
  • 50. About Analysys Mason
  • 51. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 52. Research from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015-2021
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015-2021
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for developed Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA's share of fixed broadband connections, by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2021
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the six countries modelled individually in developed Asia-Pacific, 2015
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015-2021
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015-2021
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding IoT), developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding IoT), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding IoT), developed Asia-Pacific, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per gigabyte, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 18: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 19: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2015) and future trajectory (2016-2021), by country, developed Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 20a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 20b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Australia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Australia, 2015-2021
  • Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, Australia, 2015-2021
  • Figure 24: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Australia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 25: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Australia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 26: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Australia
  • Figure 27: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Australia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 28: Fixed ASPU by service type, Australia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 29: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Australia
  • Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Hong Kong, 2011-2021
  • Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Hong Kong, 2015-2021
  • Figure 32: Connections by type, and growth rates, Hong Kong, 2015-2021
  • Figure 33: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Hong Kong, 2011-2021
  • Figure 34: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Hong Kong, 2011-2021
  • Figure 35: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Hong Kong
  • Figure 36: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Hong Kong, 2011-2021
  • Figure 37: Fixed ASPU by service type, Hong Kong, 2011-2021
  • Figure 38: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Hong Kong
  • Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Japan, 2011-2021
  • Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Japan, 2015-2021
  • Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, Japan, 2015-2021
  • Figure 42: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Japan, 2011-2021
  • Figure 43: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Japan, 2011-2021
  • Figure 44: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Japan
  • Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Japan, 2011-2021
  • Figure 46: Fixed ASPU by service type, Japan, 2011-2021
  • Figure 47: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Japan
  • Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Singapore, 2011-2021
  • Figure 49: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Singapore, 2015-2021
  • Figure 50: Connections by type, and growth rates, Singapore, 2015-2021
  • Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Singapore, 2011-2021
  • Figure 52: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Singapore, 2011-2021
  • Figure 53: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Singapore
  • Figure 54: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Singapore, 2011-2021
  • Figure 55: Fixed ASPU by service type, Singapore, 2011-2021
  • Figure 56: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Singapore
  • Figure 57: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), South Korea, 2011-2021
  • Figure 58: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, South Korea, 2015-2021
  • Figure 59: Connections by type, and growth rates, South Korea, 2015-2021
  • Figure 60: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, South Korea, 2011-2021
  • Figure 61: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, South Korea, 2011-2021
  • Figure 62: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, South Korea
  • Figure 63: Fixed penetration rates by service type, South Korea, 2011-2021
  • Figure 64: Fixed ASPU by service type, South Korea, 2011-2021
  • Figure 65: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, South Korea
  • Figure 66: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Taiwan, 2011-2021
  • Figure 67: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Taiwan, 2015-2021
  • Figure 68: Connections by type, and growth rates, Taiwan, 2015-2021
  • Figure 69: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Taiwan, 2011-2021
  • Figure 70: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Taiwan, 2011-2021
  • Figure 71: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Taiwan
  • Figure 72: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Taiwan, 2011-2021
  • Figure 73: Fixed ASPU by service type, Taiwan, 2011-2021
  • Figure 74: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Taiwan
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