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世界の固定ネットワークデータトラフィック動向・予測:2017-2023年

Fixed Network Data Traffic: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2017-2023

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 297616
出版日 ページ情報 英文 8 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=114.42円で換算しております。
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世界の固定ネットワークデータトラフィック動向・予測:2017-2023年 Fixed Network Data Traffic: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2017-2023
出版日: 2017年12月07日 ページ情報: 英文 8 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、世界における固定回線データトラフィック市場について調査し、世界8地域・26ヶ国における固定データトラフィックの5ヵ年予測、データトラフィックの主要動向および促進因子・抑制因子の分析、リニアビデオオンラインを促進するTVにおける商業動向の議論などを提供しています。

世界の動向

  • ブロードキャスト代替は固定トラフィック成長の主要な促進因子
  • 新興市場は2023年までにインターネットトラフィックの52%に貢献
  • より成熟したモバイル市場において、固定・モバイルトラフィックの成長は同等に近いが、変化する見込み
  • NGA利用水準は既にTV・ビデオにとっての非常に強力なIP移行を示す
  • TVは王様、そしてモバイルデバイスは引き続き小さく、ブロードバンドトラフィックのシェアを減らす
  • クラウドにあるのはユニキャストサービスだけではない;リニアコンテンツもそこへ移動
  • 代替は新たな脅威であるため、帯域幅を多く消費するサービスは固定オペレーターの一番の味方
  • 最繁時シェア、非対称比率、および平均:中央値比率は全てゆっくりとした、長期的な動向を示す

予測手法・前提条件

著者・ANALYSYS MASON について

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目次

"Substitution is a renewed threat, so bandwidth-hogging services are the fixed operator's best friends."

Mobile networks command a miniscule share of data traffic worldwide, but commercial pressures are pushing mobile network operators (MNOs) inexorably towards an unlimited or nearly unlimited model. Fixed operators have depended on their capacity advantage to ward off any threat of substitution. Therefore, a strong understanding of the dominant trends in fixed-line data traffic is essential for fixed-line defensive and mobile-aggressive strategies.

THIS MARKET SHARE REPORT PROVIDES:

  • 5-year forecasts of fixed data traffic for 8 global regions and 26 selected countries
  • analysis of the key trends in, and drivers and inhibitors of, data traffic
  • discussion of the commercial trends in TV that drive linear video online.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE:

The report provides forecasts for the following eight geographical regions.

  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • Developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP)
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP)
  • Latin America (LATAM)
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
  • North America (NA)
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
  • Western Europe (WE)

The report provides forecasts for the Nordic region and the following 25 countries.

  • Australia
  • Brazil
  • China
  • France
  • Germany
  • Hong Kong
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Japan
  • Malaysia
  • Oman
  • Poland
  • Qatar
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Saudi Arabia
  • South Africa
  • South Korea
  • Spain
  • Turkey
  • UAE
  • UK
  • USA

KEY METRICS:

  • Overall national and per broadband (BB) subscriber data, year total and year end
  • Internet, managed IP, multicast data
  • Next-generation access (NGA) and non-NGA split
  • Median usage
  • Fixed-mobile traffic ratios
  • Asymmetry ratios
  • Internet bandwidth per subscriber, average and busy hour
  • Global split by device (TV, smartphone, PC/other).

ABOUT THE AUTHORS:

Rupert Wood (Research Director) is the lead analyst for our Fixed Networks, Wireless Networks and Convergence Strategies research programmes. His research focuses on the economics of next-generation networks and of convergence, and leads Analysys Mason's traffic forecasting. Rupert regularly participates at industry conferences, and contributes to the international press on a wide range of telecoms subjects. Rupert has a PhD from the University of Cambridge, where he was a Lecturer before joining Analysys Mason.

Simon Lumb (Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing primarily to the Telecoms MarketMatrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Core Data research programmes. Simon holds a BSc in Physicsfrom Durham University, and during his studies conducted research on the collision of galaxies and helped to develop a GPS tracking system for a start-up company.

Table of Contents

  • 5. Worldwide trends
  • 6. Worldwide summary: Broadcast substitution is the main driver of fixed traffic growth
  • 7. Worldwide: Emerging markets will contribute 52% of Internet traffic by 2023
  • 8. Worldwide: In more-mature mobile markets, fixed and mobile traffic growth is closer to parity, but this could change
  • 9. Worldwide: NGA usage levels already demonstrate very strong IP migration for TV and video
  • 10. Worldwide: TV is king, and mobile devices constitute a small and declining share of broadband traffic
  • 11. Worldwide: It's not just unicast services that are in the Cloud; linear content is moving there too
  • 12. Worldwide: Substitution is a renewed threat, so bandwidth-hogging services are the fixed operator's best friends
  • 13. Worldwide: Busy-hour share, asymmetry ratios, and mean:median ratios all show slow, long-term trends
  • 14. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 15. This report measures and forecasts IP data generated by fixed broadband connections
  • 16. The report covers three broad classes of data traffic: Internet, managed IP and multicast IPTV
  • 17. The methodology focuses on shifts in video consumption and technologies
  • 18. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 19. About the authors
  • 20. About Analysys Mason
  • 21. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 22. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Total fixed IP traffic by type, worldwide, 2016-2023
  • Figure 2: Fixed IP traffic split by device, worldwide, 2014-2023
  • Figure 3: Total fixed Internet traffic, by worldwide region, 2015-2023
  • Figure 4: Fixed and mobile Internet data growth, and mobile share of total, Japan, 2H 2010-1H 2017
  • Figure 5: Fixed and mobile data annualised traffic growth, year-end 2016
  • Figure 6: Heavy usage service providers, year-end 2016 or nearest date
  • Figure 7: HKT breakdown of monthly FTTx data usage, year-end 2015 and year-end 2016
  • Figure 8: Average data usage per smartphone and per broadband connection, plus estimated smartphone share of fixed traffic, 3Q 2016
  • Figure 9: iPlayer share of TV content requests by device (excluding unknowns)
  • Figure 10: OTT video: the journey from the margins to the centre
  • Figure 11: Busy, average hour bandwidths per connection, busy/average ratios, USA and W Europe, 2015-2023
  • Figure 12: Upstream share of Internet traffic, developed regions and worldwide, 2015-2023
  • Figure 13: Mean and median usage per connection, Western Europe, 2015-2023
  • Figure 14: Scope of this forecast
  • Figure15: Simplified diagram of three classes of fixed IP data traffic
  • Figure 16: Fixed data traffic forecast methodology
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