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世界の固定ネットワークデータトラフィック動向・予測:2016-2021年

Fixed Network Data Traffic: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 297616
出版日 ページ情報 英文 46 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=115.18円で換算しております。
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世界の固定ネットワークデータトラフィック動向・予測:2016-2021年 Fixed Network Data Traffic: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日: 2016年08月03日 ページ情報: 英文 46 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、世界における固定回線データトラフィックの促進因子・阻害因子について分析し、データ量、種類、トラフィックソースなどについて予測しています。

世界の動向

  • ブロードキャスト置き換え、4Kおよび新興経済国のファイバー投資が固定トラフィックの成長を促進
  • 新興市場は2021年までにインターネットトラフィックの46%に貢献する見込み
  • 新興市場における手頃な固定ブロードバンドの可用性の拡大がインターネット利用における主な変化の引き金に
  • 固定ブロードバンドデータの成長はモバイルブロードバンドデータに近づく;データトラフィックのモバイルネットワークのシェアは横ばい
  • NGAの利用水準は既に強いコードカッティングの傾向を示す
  • モバイルデバイスではなく、大型スクリーンは現在、トラフィック成長の最大の促進因子
  • バーチャルリアリティーは、特にホームコネクションにおいて、データ利用を加速、ほか

西欧

中東欧

中東・北アフリカ

サハラ以南アフリカ

新興アジア太平洋

先進アジア太平洋

北米

ラテンアメリカ

予測手法・前提条件

著者・ANALYSYS MASON について

このページに掲載されている内容は最新版と異なる場合があります。詳細はお問い合わせください。

目次

"Two pieces of received opinion urgently need challenging: that fixed data traffic inevitably grows more slowly than mobile; and that it is a proliferation of smaller, portable devices that drive Internet traffic."

The steady migration of broadcast video to multicast and unicast - particularly on connected TVs - is driving such strong traffic growth on fixed broadband networks that we expect growth rates of fixed and mobile to converge. This report analyses the drivers and inhibitors of fixed-line data traffic, and forecasts the volume, type and source of that traffic worldwide, as well as the bandwidths required to support it.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • Developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP)
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP)
  • Latin America (LATAM)
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
  • North America (NA)
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

The report provides forecasts for the following eight geographical regions.

  • Australia
  • Brazil
  • China
  • France
  • Germany
  • Hong Kong
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Italy
  • Japan
  • Malaysia
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • South Africa
  • South Korea
  • Spain
  • Turkey
  • UK
  • USA

The report provides forecasts for the Nordic region and the following 20 countries.

KEY METRICS

  • Overall national and per broadband (BB) subscriber data, year total and year end
  • Internet, managed IP, multicast data
  • Next-generation access (NGA) and non-NGA split
  • Median usage
  • Fixed-mobile traffic ratios
  • Asymmetry ratios
  • Internet bandwidth per subscriber, average and busy hour
  • Global split by device (TV, mobile device, PC, other)

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Rupert Wood (Research Director) is the lead analyst for our Fixed Networks, Wireless Networks and Convergence Strategies research programmes. His research focuses on the economics of next-generation networks and of convergence, and leads Analysys Mason's traffic forecasting. Rupert regularly participates at industry conferences, and contributes to the international press on a wide range of telecoms subjects. Rupert has a PhD from the University of Cambridge, where he was a Lecturer before joining Analysys Mason.

Table of Contents

  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: Broadcast substitution, 4K and new emerging economy fibre investment are driving fixed traffic growth
  • 9. Worldwide: Emerging markets will contribute 46% of Internet traffic by 2021
  • 10. Worldwide: Increasing availability of affordable fixed broadband in emerging markets is triggering key changes in Internet usage
  • 11. Worldwide: Fixed broadband data growth is approaching that of mobile; mobile networks' share of data traffic will plateau
  • 12. Worldwide: NGA usage levels already demonstrate very strong cord-cutting tendencies
  • 13. Worldwide: Larger screens - not mobile devices - are now the largest drivers of traffic growth
  • 14. Worldwide: Virtual reality should accelerate data usage, particularly on home connections
  • 15. Worldwide: Busy-hour share, asymmetry ratios, and mean:median ratios all show slow, long-term trends
  • 16. Western Europe
  • 17. Western Europe: Services, not networks, drive traffic growth
  • 18. Western Europe: Southern Europe has not yet had the surge in usage experienced in Northern Europe
  • 19. Central and Eastern Europe
  • 20. Central and Eastern Europe: Strong FMC effects in EU states will be offset by slower growth in Russia
  • 21. Central and Eastern Europe: Peer-to-peer still affects the shape of traffic growth
  • 22. Middle East and North Africa
  • 23. Middle East and North Africa: Where fibre is in place, usage is high, but limited investment elsewhere holds traffic back
  • 24. Middle East and North Africa: Lack of disclosure of usage may tells its own story
  • 25. Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 26. Sub-Saharan Africa: Fixed broadband plays only a minor role in the SSA telecoms landscape
  • 27. Emerging Asia-Pacific
  • 28. Emerging Asia-Pacific: Chinese usage dominates the regional totals
  • 29. Emerging Asia-Pacific: China and Malaysia's markets already resemble developed economies in terms of take-up and usage
  • 30. Developed Asia-Pacific
  • 31. Developed Asia-Pacific: Fixed data traffic growth will overtake that of mobile
  • 32. Developed Asia-Pacific: Large screens and 4K will stimulate growth in traffic
  • 33. North America
  • 34. North America: While underlying demand for online video is strong, growth will be inhibited by cableco bundling strategies
  • 35. Latin America
  • 36. Latin America: The strength of growth is related to FTTP investment, which is patchy in the region
  • 37. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 38. This report measures and forecasts IP data generated by fixed broadband connections
  • 39. The report covers three broad classes of data traffic: Internet, managed IP and multicast IPTV
  • 40. The methodology focuses on shifts in video consumption and technologies
  • 41. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 42. About the authors
  • 43. About Analysys Mason
  • 44. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 45. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Total global fixed IP traffic, by type, 2015-2021
  • Figure 2: Total fixed Internet traffic, by worldwide region, 2015- 2021
  • Figure 3: GDP per capita, gigabytes per capita and relative mobile share of traffic, selected markets, December 2015
  • Figure 4: Fixed and mobile Internet data growth, and mobile share of total, Japan, 2H 2010-2H 2015
  • Figure 5: Mobile share of Internet traffic, selected regions, 2015-2021
  • Figure 6: Average monthly data traffic per NGA connection (including non-Internet), selected operators, year-end 2015
  • Figure 7: Average blended, NGA and non-NGA Internet traffic per connection, worldwide, 2015-2021
  • Figure 8: iPlayer share of TV content requests by device (excluding unknowns)
  • Figure 9: Device share of overall IP traffic, including mobile network traffic, worldwide, 2014-2021
  • Figure 10: Busy and average hour bandwidths per connection, busy/average ratios, USA and Western Europe, 2015-2021
  • Figure 11: Upstream share of Internet traffic, developed regions and worldwide, 2015-2021
  • Figure 12: Mean and median usage per connection, Western Europe, 2015-2021
  • Figure 13: Total NGA and non-NGA connections, Western Europe, 2014-2021
  • Figure 14: Total IP data traffic, by type, Western Europe, 2014-2021
  • Figure 15: Average Internet usage per FBB connection, selected Western Europe markets, year-end 2015
  • Figure 16: Average Internet usage per NGA, non-NGA and blended broadband connection, Western Europe, 2014-2021
  • Figure 17: Total NGA and non-NGA connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2021
  • Figure 18: Total IP data traffic, by type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2021
  • Figure 19: Average Internet usage per FBB connection, selected Central and Eastern European markets, year-end 2015
  • Figure 20: Average Internet usage per NGA, non-NGA and blended broadband connection, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2021
  • Figure 21: Total NGA and non-NGA connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2014-2021
  • Figure 22: Total IP data traffic, by type, Middle East and North Africa, 2014-2021
  • Figure 23: Average Internet usage per FBB connection, selected Middle East and North African markets, year-end 2015
  • Figure 24: Average Internet usage per NGA, non-NGA and blended broadband connection, Middle East and North Africa, 2014-2021
  • Figure 25: Total NGA and non-NGA connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014-2021
  • Figure 26: Total IP data traffic, by type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014-2021
  • Figure 27: Average Internet usage per NGA, non-NGA and blended broadband connection, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014-2021
  • Figure 28: Total NGA and non-NGA connections, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
  • Figure 29: Total IP data traffic, by type, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
  • Figure 30: Average Internet usage per FBB connection, selected emerging Asia-Pacific markets, year-end 2015
  • Figure 31: Average Internet usage per NGA, non-NGA and blended broadband connection, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
  • Figure 32: Total NGA and non-NGA connections, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
  • Figure 33: Total IP data traffic, by type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
  • Figure 34: Average Internet usage per FBB connection, selected developed Asia-Pacific markets, year-end 2015
  • Figure 35: Average Internet usage per NGA, non-NGA and blended broadband connection, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2021
  • Figure 36: Total NGA and non-NGA connections, North America, 2014-2021
  • Figure 37: Total IP data traffic, by type, North America, 2014-2021
  • Figure 38: Average Internet usage per NGA, non-NGA and blended broadband connection, North America, 2014-2021
  • Figure 39: Total NGA and non-NGA connections, Latin America, 2014-2021
  • Figure 40: Total IP data traffic, by type, Latin America, 2014-2021
  • Figure 41: Average Internet usage per NGA, non-NGA and blended broadband connection, Latin America, 2014-2021
  • Figure 42: Scope of this forecast
  • Figure 43: Simplified diagram of three classes of fixed IP data traffic
  • Figure 44: Fixed data traffic forecast methodology
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