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市場調査レポート

アジア太平洋地域におけるワイヤレスネットワークトラフィック:予測・分析

Wireless Network Traffic in Asia-Pacific: Forecasts and Analysis 2013-2018

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 290785
出版日 ページ情報 英文 PPT and PDF (50 slides); Excel
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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アジア太平洋地域におけるワイヤレスネットワークトラフィック:予測・分析 Wireless Network Traffic in Asia-Pacific: Forecasts and Analysis 2013-2018
出版日: 2013年12月02日 ページ情報: 英文 PPT and PDF (50 slides); Excel
概要

当レポートでは、アジア太平洋地域の2地域(先進地域・新興地域)および13ヶ国(オーストラリア、バングラデシュ、中国、香港、インド、インドネシア、日本、マレーシア、パキスタン、シンガポール、韓国、台湾、およびタイ)におけるワイヤレスデータトラフィック市場について調査し、今後5年間の予測を提供しており、データトラフィックの主要動向、促進因子、および阻害因子などの分析をまとめ、概略下記の構成でお届けいたします。

エグゼクティブサマリー

先進アジア太平洋地域の動向

  • 先進アジア太平洋地域はいくつかにおいて世界で最も高いセルラーデータ利用水準を持つが、常に急成長とは限らない
  • 先進アジア太平洋地域におけるセルラーデータトラフィックは2013年から2018年に6.1倍の増加見込み
  • 先進アジア太平洋経済諸国のトラフィックは端末によって占められる、ほか

先進アジア太平洋地域市場

  • オーストラリアにおけるモバイルデータトラフィックの成長は地域の平均となり、モデム/ルーターセグメントが引き続き重要となる
  • 香港のセルラーデータ需要は引き続き高くなるが、地蔵可能とはならない
  • 日本は高い潜在能力と強い置換えの影響によって、モバイルデータトラフィックの強い成長を維持する見込み、ほか

新興アジア太平洋地域の動向

  • 地域の新興経済国における所得水準に相関して利用は幅広く残る
  • 新興アジア太平洋経済国ではセルラーデータトラフィックは2013年から2018年に11.4倍の増加見込み
  • 端末はセルラーデータトラフィックを独占するが、先進アジア太平洋地域よりも少ない、ほか

新興アジア太平洋地域市場

  • バングラデシュにおけるトラフィックの成長率は、3Gがより広い範囲で利用可能となるため加速するが、普及率の低さがARPUを抑制する
  • 中国におけるセルラーデータトラフィック成長の多重性は、引き続きWi-Fiを抑制する
  • インドにおけるモバイルデータトラフィックの成長は現在のところ非常に強い、ほか

データソース・調査手法

著者・Analysys Mason について

図表リスト

目次

In the price-sensitive markets of Asia, Wi-Fi providers have an opportunity in the next 2 or 3 years to disrupt the plans of mobile operators.

Mobile data is set to grow at a much faster rate in the countries of emerging Asia-Pacific than in the rest of the world. Mobile data usage in developed economies in the region is already higher than anywhere else. This uniquely granular report assesses why the Asia-Pacific region generates so much interest, the key supply- and demand-side differences between individual markets, the current and future constraints to growth, and the future of Wi-Fi in the region.

This report provides:

  • 5-year forecasts of wireless data traffic in two regions (emerging Asia-Pacific and developed Asia-Pacific) and in 13 selected countries (Australia, Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand)
  • analysis of the key trends in, and drivers and inhibitors of, data traffic
  • a dataset that covers:
    • cellular data: data delivered over mobile (cellular) networks to handsets (typically smartphones), mid-screen devices (typically tablets), to USB modems, routers and other standalone data devices, and to M2M devices
    • Wi-Fi data: data delivered over private Wi-Fi connections (at home or place of work) to handsets and mid-screen devices, and data delivered to all devices using public Wi-Fi connectivity.
  • an assessment of the enablers of future capacity on wireless networks
  • an analysis of the trends in private and public usage and their effects on the use of cellular and Wi-Fi connectivity.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

The following companies are mentioned in this Report.

  • Australia
  • Bangladesh
  • China
  • Hong Kong
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Japan
  • Malaysia
  • Pakistan
  • Singapore
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan
  • Thailand

Data is provided for the following regions.

  • Developed Asia-Pacific
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific

DATA COVERAGE

The following major KPIs are included in the data annex that accompanies this report.

Cellular data

  • Total volume and average usage for:
    • handsets
    • mid-screen devices
    • USB modems and routers
    • M2M.
  • Traffic split by public and private usage.

Wi-Fi data

  • Total volume and average usage for:
    • handsets
    • mid-screen devices, split by mobile-connected and Wi-Fi-only devices
    • laptops (public Wi-Fi connectivity only).
  • Traffic split by public and private usage.

About the author

Rupert Wood (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason's Fixed Networks research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include next-generation networks, long-term industry strategy and forecasting the dynamics of convergence and substitution across fixed and mobile platforms. Rupert regularly contributes to the international press on a wide range of telecoms subjects and has been quoted by The Times, The Economist, Business Week, Telecommunications Online and La Tribune. Rupert has a PhD from the University of Cambridge, where he was a Lecturer before joining Analysys Mason.

Table of Contents

  • 7. Executive summary
  • 8. Developed Asia-Pacific growth rates will inevitably slow down
  • 9. Emerging Asia-Pacific will have the highest growth rates in the world for cellular data traffic between 2013 and 2018
  • 10. Developed Asia-Pacific trends
  • 11. The developed Asia-Pacific region has some of the highest cellular data usage levels in the world, but not always the fastest growth
  • 12. Cellular data traffic will grow by a factor of 6.1 between 2013 and 2018 in developed Asia-Pacific economies
  • 13. Traffic in developed Asia-Pacific economies is dominated by handsets
  • 14. As traffic moves onto 4G, it becomes more asymmetric and more peaky
  • 15. Public Wi-Fi is declining in importance, and social factors continue to limit the use of private Wi-Fi offloading
  • 16. Developed Asia-Pacific markets
  • 17. Mobile data traffic growth in Australia will be average for the region and the modem/router segment will continue to be important
  • 18. Hong Kong's cellular data demand continues to be very high, but this may not be sustainable
  • 19. Japan will experience continued strong growth in mobile data traffic, thanks to high potential capacity and a strong substitutive effect
  • 20. Singapore cellular data traffic growth will be limited by tight supply
  • 21. Singapore has high public Wi-Fi usage for the region
  • 22. Growth in South Korea's cellular data traffic will be broadly linear for the next 4 years
  • 23. Taiwan may continue to be supply constrained even after the launch of 700MHz LTE
  • 24. Emerging Asia-Pacific trends
  • 25. Usage remains broadly correlated to income levels in the emerging economies of the region
  • 26. Cellular data traffic will grow by a factor of 11.4 between 2013 and 2018 in emerging Asia-Pacific economies
  • 27. Handsets will dominate cellular data traffic, but less so than in developed Asia-Pacific
  • 28. Public Wi-Fi has a major role in the emerging economies, but we forecast that its importance will start to decline towards the end of the decade
  • 29. Emerging Asia-Pacific markets
  • 30. The rate of traffic growth in Bangladesh will accelerate as 3G becomes more widely available, but low take-up rates will constrain ARPU
  • 31. Cellular data traffic growth multiples in China will continue to be limited by Wi-Fi
  • 32. China's regulator MIIT has stated that TD-LTE will be the default standard for 4G in China, and is expected to issue licences towards the end of 2013
  • 33. In China, public Wi-Fi has developed in a unique way
  • 34. Substitutive mobile broadband will continue to be a significant part of mobile data traffic in India
  • 35. Growth in Indian mobile data traffic is currently very strong
  • 36. Difficulties in refarming spectrum will limit LTE expansion in Indonesia
  • 37. Operator traffic statistics show strong growth in Indonesia, but the case for offloading is clear
  • 38. The rate of traffic growth in Malaysia will be between the emerging and developed Asia-Pacific growth rates
  • 39. The rate of cellular data traffic growth in Malaysia will depend on the extent to which FTTx coverage is extended
  • 40. Mobile will provide most basic Internet access needs in Pakistan
  • 41. Thailand has experienced severe supply-side constraints
  • 42. Data sources and methodology
  • 43. Data sources and methodology
  • 44. Data growth will not surpass the constraints of technology, spectrum and infrastructure costs, and is further limited by demand-side complications
  • 45. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 46. About the author
  • 47. About Analysys Mason
  • 48. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 49. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
  • Figure 2: Average monthly cellular data usage per head of population, 2013, and 5-year growth multiple for mobile data traffic, 2013-2018, Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 3: 5-year growth multiples for cellular data traffic, by region, 2013-2018
  • Figure 4: Average monthly cellular data usage per head of population by country, developed Asia-Pacific and Sweden, 2013
  • Figure 5: Cellular data traffic growth rates by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2012 and 2012-2013
  • Figure 6: Cellular data traffic by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2018
  • Figure 7: 5-year growth multiples for cellular data traffic by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2013-2018
  • Figure 8: Cellular data traffic by device type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2018
  • Figure 9: Cellular data traffic by device generation, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2018
  • Figure 10: Downlink:uplink ratio in cellular data networks by mobile operator location and network type, 2013
  • Figure 11: Typical busy-hour data traffic as a percentage of total daily data traffic, 3G-only and mainly 4G operators
  • Figure 12: Handset and connected tablet traffic by network type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2018
  • Figure 13: Cellular data traffic by device type, Australia, 2012-2018
  • Figure 14: Active mobile SIMs by device type, Australia, 2012-2018
  • Figure 15: Cellular data traffic by device type, Hong Kong, 2012-2018
  • Figure 16: Active mobile SIMs by device type, Hong Kong, 2012-2018
  • Figure 17: Cellular data traffic by device type, Japan, 2012-2018
  • Figure 18: Active mobile SIMs by device type, Japan, 2012-2018
  • Figure 19: Mobile data traffic by device type, Singapore, 2012-2018
  • Figure 20: Active mobile SIMs by device type, Singapore, 2012-2018
  • Figure 21: Wireless@SG user numbers and hours of usage per user per month, Singapore, 2010-2012
  • Figure 22: Wireless data traffic by network type, Singapore, 2010-2013
  • Figure 23: Cellular data traffic by device type, South Korea, 2012-2018
  • Figure 24: Active mobile SIMs by device type, South Korea, 2012-2018
  • Figure 25: Cellular data traffic by device type, Taiwan, 2012-2018
  • Figure 26: Active mobile SIMs by device type, Taiwan, 2012-2018
  • Figure 27: Average monthly cellular data usage per head of population and GDP per capita (nominal) by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2013
  • Figure 28: Cellular data traffic by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2012-2018
  • Figure 29: 5-year growth multiples for cellular data traffic by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2013-2018
  • Figure 30: Cellular data traffic by device type, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2018
  • Figure 31: Cellular data traffic by device generation, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2018
  • Figure 32: Handset and connected tablet traffic by network type, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2018
  • Figure 33: Cellular data traffic by device type, Bangladesh, 2012-2018
  • Figure 34: Active mobile SIMs by device type, Bangladesh, 2012-2018
  • Figure 35: Cellular data traffic by device type, China, 2012-2018
  • Figure 36: Active mobile SIMs by device type, China, 2012-2018
  • Figure 37: 4G deployment plans by operator, China
  • Figure 38: China Mobile's wireless data traffic by network type, 2010-2012
  • Figure 39: Public wireless data by network type, China, 2011-2018
  • Figure 40: Cellular data traffic by device type, India, 2012-2018
  • Figure 41: Active mobile SIMs by device type, India, 2012-2018
  • Figure 42: Cellular data traffic by operator, India, 1Q 2012-4Q 2012
  • Figure 43: Cellular data traffic by device type, Indonesia, 2012-2018
  • Figure 44: Active mobile SIMs by device type, Indonesia, 2012-2018
  • Figure 45: Cellular data traffic by operator, Indonesia, 2010-2012
  • Figure 46: Cellular data traffic by device type, Malaysia, 2012-2018
  • Figure 47: Active mobile SIMs by device type, Malaysia, 2012-2018
  • Figure 48: Operators' spectrum holdings by band following allocations in 2012, Malaysia
  • Figure 49: Cellular data traffic by device type, Pakistan, 2012-2018
  • Figure 50: Active mobile SIMs by device type, Pakistan, 2012-2018
  • Figure 51: Cellular data traffic by device type, Thailand, 2012-2018
  • Figure 52: Active mobile SIMs by device type, Thailand, 2012-2018
  • Figure 53: The dimensions of mobile data network capacity expansion
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