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市場調査レポート

ミャンマーのモバイル通信市場予測:消費者・SME調査

Myanmar Mobile Telecoms Market: Forecasts 2013-2027 and Consumer and SME Survey

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 274594
出版日 ページ情報 英文 PPT and PDF (69 pages); Excel
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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ミャンマーのモバイル通信市場予測:消費者・SME調査 Myanmar Mobile Telecoms Market: Forecasts 2013-2027 and Consumer and SME Survey
出版日: 2013年06月26日 ページ情報: 英文 PPT and PDF (69 pages); Excel
概要

ミャンマーにおける通信市場の自由化は、世界最大の未接続市場へ対応するチャンスを世界の通信コミュニティに提示しています。ミャンマーには6,000万の新規通信加入者の可能性がありますが、サービスへのアクセスは非常に制限されており、2013年初めの時点で、普及率はわずか11%に留まっています。

当レポートでは、1,000人の消費者および中小企業(SMR)200社を含め、ミャンマーの通信サービスのユーザー・非ユーザーを対象に実施した調査結果を分析し、加入者数・収益の予測、競合情勢、および市場参入に向けた提案などをまとめ、概略下記の構成でお届けいたします。

目次

ミャンマー市場の全体的な背景

  • ミャンマーの名目GDP・国民1人当たりのGDP/年間
  • ミャンマーの総人口:年齢・都市居住者別
  • 毎月の平均世帯所得
  • ミャンマー主要都市の地図
  • 総輸出のシェア:部門別
  • 通信サービスの加入者・普及率
  • 基地局の導入ベース
  • モバイルサービスのペイメント手段:ユーザータイプ別
  • ポストペイドの普及率:毎月の世帯所得別

結果の概要

  • ミャンマーにおける推計モバイル普及率
  • 調査結果による推計モバイル普及率

モバイルサービスの現在の導入率

  • 都市部のモバイル普及率:性別
  • 世帯あたりの毎月の平均所得:SIM使用枚数別
  • 世帯あたりの毎月の平均所得:SIM使用枚数別−利別
  • 都市部のモバイルユーザー普及率:年齢別
  • 発信時間(回答者比)
  • VAS、データの利用およびSMSの利用(回答者比)
  • VASの利用:年齢別
  • モバイルサービスの利用:事業規模別

モバイルサービスへの関心

モバイルサービス導入の促進因子・障壁

市場予測

  • モバイル加入者・人口普及率
  • ミャンマーにおける普及率の予測と類似市場における成長の比較
  • サービス収益:消費者タイプ別
  • 毎月のARPU:消費者タイプ別
  • サービス収益:ロケーション別
  • 毎月のARPU:ロケーション別

競合情勢:住宅

  • 現在の満足度
  • チャーンの最も大きな理由
  • 現在の満足度:年齢別
  • 既存ユーザーのモバイルサービスに対する毎月の支出の分布
  • デバイスあたりの支払い額
  • SIMあたりの支払額、ほか

競合情勢:ビジネス

  • 現在の満足度
  • チャーンの最も大きな理由
  • 現在の満足度:従業員規模別
  • 従業員/モバイル接続あたりの毎月の平均支出
  • SIMあたりの支払額、ほか

付録:市場予測の前提条件

目次

The results of our survey indicate dramatic growth in the Myanmar telecoms market during the past 12 months.

The liberalisation of the Myanmar telecoms market presents an opportunity for the international telecoms community to address the largest unconnected market in the world. The country has potentially 60 million new telecoms subscribers, but highly restricted access to services has limited the penetration rate to just 11% at the beginning of 2013. This report, which features the results of our major on-the-ground survey, as well as forecasts and insight, provides a unique view of the business opportunity in this formerly closed market.

This report provides:

  • results from our survey of Myanmar users and non-users of telecoms services, including 1000 consumers and 200 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)
  • forecasts of subscriber numbers and revenue to 2027
  • insights and recommendations for those wishing to enter this exciting market.

About the authors

Tom Mowat (Principal Analyst) Tom is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme and is based in our Singapore office. Tom recently rejoined Analysys Mason from PwC, where he was a Manager in the TMT Consulting team. He has extensive expertise in fixed and mobile broadband services, strategy and forecasting, regulatory issues, cost-modelling and the particular issues affecting telecoms markets in developing regions. His previous role at Analysys Mason was within the Custom Research team, developing project-based analysis for key industry clients. Tom's experience includes leading numerous projects for telecoms service providers, vendors, and regulatory and industry bodies, as an analyst and consultant. Tom has degrees in mathematical and particle physics from the University of Nottingham and the University of Durham.

Tom Rebbeck (Head of Custom Research) leads Analysys Mason's Custom Research team, drawing on his more than 12 years of experience in the telecoms sector. He rejoined Analysys Mason from Telefónica, where he was a Global Project Manager in the Mobile Data Group. In this role, Tom was involved in the launch of a number of principal services across Telefónica's worldwide footprint, including Telefónica-branded applications, application stores and mobile advertising. Prior to this, he was a Principal Analyst for Analysys Mason, involved in numerous strategic projects for clients.

Nuno Afonso (Consultant, Custom Research) joined Analysys Mason in 2010, having participated in a wide variety of projects across different areas. These included mobile backhaul, dark fibre, spectrum, telecoms software and CSPs' operational efficiency. As part of the project scope, Nuno conducted market analysis, market sizing and forecast as well as benchmarks. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Nuno led numerous projects with an international scope, including the optimisation of performance management methods for a leading financial services provider in Belgium; the assessment of market entry strategy in Latin America for a key player in the water and waste management sector; and strategic planning for an organisation in the FMCG sector. Nuno has a Business Administration degree from Universidade Nova de Lisboa and an MBA from Manchester Business School.

Table of Contents

List of figures:

General background on the Myanmar market

  • Myanmar's GDP nominal annual and per capita (PPP)
  • Myanmar's total population by age and urban residents
  • Average monthly household income (2012)
  • Map of Myanmar and major cities
  • Share of total exports by sector (2011)
  • Telecommunication services' subscribers and penetration
  • Deployed base transceiver stations by mid 2012
  • Payment method for mobile services by user type
  • Postpaid penetration by monthly household income

Overview of results

  • Implied mobile penetration in Myanmar
  • Implied mobile penetration from the survey results

Current adoption of mobile services

  • Urban mobile penetration by gender
  • Average monthly income per household by number of SIMs used
  • Average monthly income per household by number of SIMs used by city
  • Urban mobile users penetration by age
  • Outgoing minutes (% of respondents)
  • VAS, data usage and SMS usage (% of respondents)
  • VAS usage by age
  • Mobile services usage by business size

Interest in mobile services

  • Residential consumers for whom a mobile phone would fulfil a need
  • Likelihood that respondent would start using a mobile phone in the next year
  • Residential consumers for whom a mobile phone would fulfil a need by income
  • Likelihood that respondent would start using a mobile phone in the next year by income
  • Business consumers for whom a mobile phone would fulfil a need or solve a business problem
  • Likelihood that respondent would start using a mobile phone in the next year
  • Business consumers for whom a mobile phone would fulfil a need or solve a business problem by business size
  • Likelihood that respondent would start using a mobile phone in the next year by business size

Drivers and barriers for adoption of mobile services

  • Factors considered when selecting a mobile operator (% respondents)
  • Reasons for not purchasing a mobile phone
  • Factors considered when selecting a mobile operator (% of respondents)

Market forecast

  • Mobile subscribers and population penetration (2012-2027)
  • Comparison of our forecast for penetration in Myanmar and growth in similar markets
  • Service revenue in USD by consumer type (2012-2027)
  • Monthly ARPU in USD by consumer type (2012-2027)
  • Service revenue in USD by location (2012-2027)
  • Monthly ARPU in USD by location (2012-2027)

Competitive landscape: Residential

  • Current satisfaction level (% of respondents)
  • Most important reason to churn (% of respondents)
  • Current satisfaction level by age
  • Churn among very and somewhat dissatisfied users by age
  • Distribution of spend per month on mobile services of existing users
  • Distribution of expected spend per month on mobile services of non-users
  • Price paid per device, users (% of respondents)
  • Expected price per device, non-users
  • Price paid per SIM, users
  • Expected paid per SIM, non-users
  • Price per minute (% of respondents)
  • Price per SMS (% of respondents)
  • Where mobile users bought the SIM and mobile handset (% of respondents)

Competitive landscape: Business

  • Current satisfaction level (% of respondents)
  • Most important reason to churn (% of respondents)
  • Current satisfaction level by number of employees
  • Most important reason to churn by number of employees
  • Average spend per month, per employee/mobile connection
  • Average expected spend per month, per employee/mobile connection
  • Price paid per SIM, users
  • Expected paid per SIM, non-users

Annex: Market forecast assumptions

  • India's ARPU and penetration comparison
  • Population split by location (2012)
  • Assumptions for estimation of mobile spend
  • Van Westendorp price sensitivity: illustration of intersections
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