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市場調査レポート

世界のFTTx展開・Capex予測・分析

FTTx Roll-out and Capex Worldwide: Forecasts and Analysis 2014-2019

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 270685
出版日 ページ情報 英文 PPT and PDF (64 slides); Excel
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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世界のFTTx展開・Capex予測・分析 FTTx Roll-out and Capex Worldwide: Forecasts and Analysis 2014-2019
出版日: 2014年06月26日 ページ情報: 英文 PPT and PDF (64 slides); Excel
概要

当レポートでは、世界の57ヶ国・7地域におけるFTTx技術6種類のサービス範囲、普及率およびCapexについて予測・分析しており、事業環境、技術促進因子および予測を支えるコスト動向などの調査をまとめ、お届けいたします。

エグゼクティブサマリー

主な見通し

市場定義

予測

  • 世界における5つの設備のうち2つ以上が2019年までにFTTx接続にアクセスする見込み
  • 2019年までに世界で2億4,500万以上のFTTH接続および2億3,500万のその他のFTTx接続が見込まれる
  • 西欧:実績
  • 西欧:予測
  • 中東欧:実績
  • 中東欧:予測
  • 北米・先進アジア太平洋地域:実績
  • 北米・先進アジア太平洋地域:予測
  • その他地域の主要国:実績
  • その他地域の主要国:予測
  • サービス範囲の最高レベル:FTTx
  • サービス範囲の最高レベル:FTTH
  • 普及率の最高レベル:FTTx・ケーブル
  • 普及率の最高レベル:FTTH
  • 先進経済国における最高レベルのCapexは西欧となる見込み

事業環境・ネットワークオプション

  • 過去12ヶ月間における固定NGA向けの事業環境は大きく変化
  • ファイバーベースのサービスにおけるコンバージョン率は向上
  • ニーズに応じた30Mbps以上および1Gbpsまでの速度の事例
  • 欧州では、ケーブルブロードバンドがtelcoを犠牲にして固定ブロードバンド接続のシェアを増大
  • ケーブルに従うFTTx展開の動向
  • 成熟市場において、大手モバイルオペレーターはファイバーアクセスに戦略的関心を抱く
  • 先進経済諸国におけるいくつかのモバイルオペレーターはファイバーアクセスへの投資を再考
  • 固定サービス範囲向けLTEソリューションは厳しく制限され、現在いくつかの国家ブロードバンド計画はこれを認識
  • FTTC/VDSL/ベクトリングのアップデート
  • FTTB/dp/VDSLのアップデート
  • G.fastのアップデート
  • FTTHのアップデート
  • 与えられたCapexの範囲を最大化することは古い前提の再考をもたらす、ほか

Capexモデルのアップデート

  • FTTx技術の関連コストのトップレベル分析:基本技術
  • FTTx技術の関連コストのトップレベル分析:FTTC/VDSL および FTTB/VDSLの前提条件
  • FTTx技術の関連コストのトップレベル分析:FTTH/GPON および FTTH/PTP の前提条件
  • 基本予測では、FTTH/GPONはパス・接続にFTTC/VDSLの4倍のコストがかかる
  • FTTHを用いて設備を通過するための関連コストは、FTTCで通過するコストと比べて減少
  • モデルは各国間の原価差異も考慮にいれる
  • 水平型FTTH/GPONネットワーク展開のコストは主に労働者コストによって異なる
  • FTTC/VDSLネットワーク展開のコストは、主に労働者コストおよびキャビネットあたりの回線数によってさまざま、ほか

著者・Analysys Masonについて

図表リスト

このページに掲載されている内容は最新版と異なる場合があります。詳細はお問い合わせください。

目次

Neither the mostly FTTC approach nor the mostly FTTH approach is ideally suited to the current competitive landscape - major operators will have to create new paradigms for optimal roll-out.

The commercial and economic environment for next-generation access (NGA) has evolved quickly during the past 12 months, and operators will have to adapt their long-term plans to match the changes. This report forecasts coverage and take-up of different NGA technologies, assesses the costs and points to opportunities.


This report is our fully reviewed and revised annual update to the FTTx roll-out and capex forecast series.

It provides:

  • an assessment of the business environment, the technology drivers and the cost trends behind our forecasts
  • forecasts of coverage, take-up and capex for six types of FTTx technology in 57 countries and seven geographical regions, and data split by altnet and incumbent.

THE MODEL

The model can serve a number of functions beyond the immediate scope of this report. It can be used to provide the costs of alternative scenarios - for example, different mixes of technologies, different demand profiles in different geotypes, different completion dates. If you wish to explore these options further, please contact the author.

DATA COVERAGE

The data annex that accompanies this report provides forecasts of coverage, take-up and capex for the following six technologies.

  • FTTH
  • FTTB/LAN
  • FTTB/dp/VDSL
  • FTTC/VDSL
  • VDSL-CO
  • DOCSIS3.0+

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Forecasts are provided for the following 57 countries.

  • Algeria
  • Argentina
  • Australia
  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Brazil
  • Bulgaria
  • Canada
  • China
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Denmark
  • Egypt
  • Estonia
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Hong Kong
  • Hungary
  • Iceland
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Ireland
  • Israel
  • Italy
  • Japan
  • Kuwait
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Malaysia
  • Mexico
  • Morocco
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Oman
  • Poland
  • Portugal
  • Qatar
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Singapore
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • South Africa
  • South Korea
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • Taiwan
  • Thailand
  • Turkey
  • UK
  • Ukraine
  • USA
  • United Arab Emirates

Forecasts are provided for the following seven regions.

  • North America (NA)
  • Western Europe (WE)
  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • Developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP)
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP)
  • Latin America (LATAM)
  • Middle East and Africa (MEA)

About the author

Rupert Wood (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason's Fixed Networks research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include next-generation networks, long-term industry strategy and forecasting the dynamics of convergence and substitution across fixed and mobile platforms. Rupert regularly contributes to the international press on a wide range of telecoms subjects and has been quoted by The Times, The Economist, Business Week, Telecommunications Online and La Tribune. Rupert has a PhD from the University of Cambridge, where he was a Lecturer before joining Analysys Mason.

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary
  • 9. Executive summary
  • 10. Key implications
  • 11. Key implications [1]
  • 12. Key implications [2]
  • 13. Key implications [3]
  • 14. Market definition
  • 15. Geographical scope: Forecasts are provided for 57 countries in 7 regions
  • 16. Definitions
  • 17. Forecasts
  • 18. More than two in five premises worldwide will have access to an FTTx connection by 2019
  • 19. There will be more than 245 million FTTH connections and 235 million other FTTx connections worldwide by 2019
  • 20. Western Europe: End of 2013
  • 21. Western Europe: Forecast for 2019
  • 22. Central and Eastern Europe: End of 2013
  • 23. Central and Eastern Europe: Forecast for 2019
  • 24. North America and developed Asia-Pacific: End of 2013
  • 25. North America and developed Asia-Pacific: Forecast for 2019
  • 26. Key countries in other regions: End of 2013
  • 27. Key countries in other regions: Forecast for 2019
  • 28. Highest levels of coverage, FTTx
  • 29. Highest levels of coverage, FTTH
  • 30. Highest levels of penetration, FTTx and cable
  • 31. Highest levels of penetration, FTTH
  • 32. The highest levels of capex in developed economies will be in Western Europe
  • 33. Business environment and network options
  • 34. The business environment for fixed NGA has changed a great deal in the past 12 months
  • 35. Conversion rates on fibre-based services are improving
  • 36. There is a needs-based case for speeds above 30Mbps and up to 1Gbps
  • 37. In Europe, cable broadband is gaining market share of fixed broadband connections at the expense of telcos
  • 38. FTTx roll-out tends to follow cable
  • 39. In mature markets, larger mobile operators are taking a strategic interest in fibre access
  • 40. We expect some mobile operators in developing economies to reconsider investment in fibre access
  • 41. Utilities and third entrants are appearing in greater numbers in the FTTx markets in developed countries
  • 42. LTE solutions for fixed coverage have severe limitations, and some national broadband plans now recognise this
  • 43. Update on FTTC/VDSL/vectoring
  • 44. Update on FTTB/dp/VDSL
  • 45. Update on G.fast
  • 46. Update on FTTH
  • 47. Maximising coverage for given capex is causing a rethink of old assumptions
  • 48. Update on capex model
  • 49. Top-level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx technologies: basic topologies
  • 50. Top-level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx technologies: assumptions for FTTC/VDSL and FTTB/VDSL
  • 51. Top-level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx technologies: assumptions for FTTH/GPON and FTTH/PTP
  • 52. Our baseline assumption is that FTTH/GPON costs four times more to pass and connect than FTTC/VDSL
  • 53. The relative cost to pass a premises with FTTH compared to the cost to pass with FTTC will decline
  • 54. The model considers the increasing incremental costs of roll-out to less-favourable demographics and topographies
  • 55. However, we recognise that roll-out decisions are increasingly based on other factors as well as cost
  • 56. The model also takes into account the cost variances between countries
  • 57. The cost to roll out a horizontal FTTH/GPON network varies mainly according to labour costs
  • 58. The cost to roll out an FTTC/VDSL network varies mainly according to labour costs and the number of lines per cabinet
  • 59. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 60. About the author
  • 61. About Analysys Mason
  • 62. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 63. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
  • Figure 2: FTTx capex by region, to 2019
  • Figure 3: FTTH roll-out and take-up by region, 2019
  • Figure 4: FTTx roll-out and take-up by region, 2019
  • Figure 5: Countries covered in this report, by region
  • Figure 6: Definitions used in this report
  • Figure 7: FTTH coverage, by region, 2011-2019
  • Figure 8: FTTx coverage, by region, 2011-2019
  • Figure 9: NGA and non-NGA fixed broadband connections, by technology, worldwide, 2011-2019
  • Figure 10: FTTH connections, by region, 2011-2019
  • Figure 11: FTTx connections, by region, 2011-2019
  • Figure 12: FTTH roll-out and take-up by country, Western Europe, 2013
  • Figure 13: FTTx roll-out and take-up by country, Western Europe, 2013
  • Figure 14: FTTx capex by country, Western Europe, to 2019
  • Figure 15: FTTH roll-out and take-up by country, Western Europe, 2019
  • Figure 16: FTTx roll-out and take-up by country, Western Europe, 2019
  • Figure 17: FTTH roll-out and take-up by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013
  • Figure 18: FTTx roll-out and take-up by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013
  • Figure 19: FTTx capex by country, Central and Eastern Europe, to 2019
  • Figure 20: FTTH roll-out and take-up by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2019
  • Figure 21: FTTx roll-out and take-up by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2019
  • Figure 22: FTTH roll-out and take-up by country, North America and developed Asia-Pacific, 2013
  • Figure 23: FTTx roll-out and take-up by country, North America and developed Asia-Pacific, 2013
  • Figure 24: FTTx capex by country, North America and developed Asia-Pacific, to 2019
  • Figure 25: FTTH roll-out and take-up by country, North America and developed Asia-Pacific, 2019
  • Figure 26: FTTx roll-out and take-up by country, North America and developed Asia-Pacific, 2019
  • Figure 27: FTTH roll-out and take-up, key countries in emerging regions, 2013
  • Figure 28: FTTx roll-out and take-up, key countries in emerging regions, 2013
  • Figure 29: FTTx capex by country, key countries in emerging regions, to 2019
  • Figure 30: FTTH roll-out and take-up, key countries in emerging regions, emerging markets, 2019
  • Figure 31: FTTx roll-out and take-up, key countries in emerging regions, 2019
  • Figure 32: FTTx coverage as a percentage of total premises by country, worldwide, 2019
  • Figure 33: FTTH coverage as a percentage of total premises by country, worldwide, 2019
  • Figure 34: FTTx plus cable broadband connections as a percentage of total premises by country, worldwide, 2019
  • Figure 35: FTTH connections as a percentage of total premises by country, worldwide, 2019
  • Figure 36: FTTx capex by region, to 2019
  • Figure 37: FTTx capex by region, 2014-2019
  • Figure 38: Change in fixed broadband and mobile service revenue by region, worldwide, 2012-2013
  • Figure 39: CAGR of fixed broadband and mobile service revenue by region, worldwide, 2013-2019
  • Figure 40: Conversion rates (premises with active connections / premises passed), selected operators, 4Q 2013
  • Figure 41: Selected forecasts of high-end access speeds required based on services, four scenarios
  • Figure 42: Change in cable operators' share of fixed broadband connections by country, 4Q 2012-4Q 2013
  • Figure 43: Cable Internet versus FTTx coverage, year-end 2013
  • Figure 44: Percentage change in revenue by country, Europe, 4Q 2012-4Q 2013
  • Figure 45: FTTx plus cable take-up versus GDP per capita by region
  • Figure 46: Countries where incumbents use FTTC/VDSL as their main NGA technology, and commercial vectoring status, Europe, June 2014
  • Figure 45: Old and new models for FTTx deployment
  • Figure 46: Basic overview of NGA network topologies and elements
  • Figure 47: Baseline capital unit cost assumptions, FTTC/VDSL and FTTB/VDSL
  • Figure 48: Baseline capital unit cost assumptions, FTTH/GPON and FTTH/PTP
  • Figure 49: Baseline assumptions on cost per premises passed and connected, a developed market, 2014
  • Figure 50: Cost per home passed and per connection by technology, 2012-2019
  • Figure 51: Cost to pass a home with FTTC/VDSL, FTTB/VDSL and FTTH/GPON, by decile of housing density, medium-sized country, 2014
  • Figure 52: Example of roll-out modelling from core capex model
  • Figure 53: Relative costs to roll out a horizontal FTTH/GPON network by country, worldwide, 2013
  • Figure 54: Relative costs to roll out an FTTC/VDSL network by country, worldwide, 2013
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