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世界の通信市場:動向と予測

Global Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 265540
出版日 ページ情報 英文 50 slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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世界の通信市場:動向と予測 Global Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023
出版日: 2019年04月11日 ページ情報: 英文 50 slides
概要

当レポートでは、世界の通信市場について調査分析し、世界/主要8地域における180以上のモバイル・固定のKPI (主要業績評価指標) に関する5ヶ年予測、地域別のモバイル・固定の各種サービスにおける動向・促進要因・予測の前提条件、オペレーター戦略の概要、地域トピック、オペレーター向け提言などを含めて、体系的な情報を提供しています。

調査対象地域

  • 西欧
  • 中欧・東欧
  • 新興アジア太平洋地域
  • 先進アジア太平洋地域
  • 中東・北アフリカ
  • サブサハラアフリカ
  • ラテンアメリカ
  • 北米

主な調査項目・区分

  • 接続数
    • モバイル
      • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・IoT
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 2G・3G・4G・5G
      • スマートフォン・非スマートフォン
    • 固定
      • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイアルアップ
      • ナローバンド音声・VoBB
      • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・5G・その他
  • 音声トラフィック
    • 固定&モバイル
      • 発信時間・MoU
  • 収益
    • モバイル
      • サービス・リテール
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・IoT
      • 端末音声・メッセージング・データ
    • 固定
      • サービス・リテール
      • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイアルアップ・ビジネスサービス
      • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・その他
  • ARPU
    • モバイル
      • SIM・端末
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 端末音声・データ
目次

"Telecoms service revenue will continue to grow worldwide, primarily due to the continuous demand for mobile data services."

Mobile handset revenue will account for 44.9% of the total service revenue in 2023 due to the mobile-centric nature of most regions. Regions with significant populations are also still exhibiting growth in this segment. This report examines telecoms trends on a global and regional level and provides key insights into the future of these markets.

This report and data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the worldwide telecoms markets and for eight regions
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service in each geographical region, and a worldwide summary
  • an overview of operator strategies and region-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-regional comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Worldwide totals are refreshed every time any of the regional results are updated.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • Developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP)
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP)
  • Latin America (LATAM)
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
  • North America (NA)
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
  • Western Europe (WE)

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Table of Contents

  • 9. Executive summary and recommendations
  • 10. The growth in global telecoms service revenue will be primarily driven by growth in the number of mobile handsets in developing markets
  • 11. Retail revenue growth is largely dictated by market maturity; saturated markets will exhibit much less revenue growth in the period to 2023
  • 12. Geographical coverage: SSA and MENA are the only regions in which the shares of 4G/5G and NGA connections will be less than 70% and 80%, respectively, by 2023
  • 13. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 14. Key recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 15. Global forecasts and regional comparison
  • 16. Market context: the telecoms share of GDP ranges from 1.5% in CEE to 2.1% in SSA
  • 17. Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
  • 18. Key drivers at a glance for each region
  • 19. Market overview: fixed broadband revenue will grow more than mobile handset revenue; the latter will continue to account for the majority of total revenue by 2023
  • 20. Mobile: mobile data traffic will increase thanks to 5G launches in developed markets and increasing 4G take-up in developing markets
  • 21. Mobile: increased data consumption combined with migration from prepaid to contract plans will decrease the rate of ARPU decline in the forecast period
  • 22. Mobile: 5G roll-outs and digital services will be key areas for operator investment
  • 23. Fixed: fixed revenue growth will be driven by increased competition in the NGA segment in most regions as the number of fibre roll-outs increases
  • 24. Fixed: North America is the only region in which fixed broadband ASPU will grow significantly thanks to limited competition
  • 25. Fixed: the NGA share of connections will be over 80% in most regions; the Middle East and North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa are the exceptions
  • 26. Business services: revenue from all segments of business services will grow during the forecast period; IT service providers will dominate the market
  • 27. IoT: automotive and smart building applications will be the key drivers of IoT revenue worldwide
  • 28. Pay TV: growth in pay-TV revenue will primarily be driven by OTT video services as revenue from traditional pay-TV will begin to decline after 2019
  • 29. Regional forecasts
  • 30. Western Europe: increased fixed broadband penetration and business services will be the main drivers of total telecoms revenue growth
  • 31. Western Europe: 4G/LTE take-up will continue to drive growth in mobile data usage, but ARPU will remain flat during the forecast period
  • 32. Western Europe: 5G spectrum auctions and launches of 5G services will be an important part of operators' activity in Western Europe
  • 33. Western Europe: forecast changes
  • 34. Central and Eastern Europe: total telecoms revenue growth will be driven by smartphone adoption and the use of high-value handset data plans
  • 35. Central and Eastern Europe: the penetration of NGA technologies will increase due to the limited legacy infrastructure in CEE
  • 36. Central and Eastern Europe: fixed-mobile converged (FMC) bundles and speed upgrades will help operators to maintain revenue growth
  • 37. Central and Eastern Europe: forecast changes
  • 38. Emerging Asia-Pacific: both mobile and fixed service revenue will continue to grow during the forecast period
  • 39. Emerging Asia-Pacific: investment in NGA and competition will drive the growth of fixed broadband household penetration in many countries Emerging Asia-Pacific: competition in both the mobile and fixed markets is expected to intensify across the regionEmerging Asia-Pacific: forecast changesDeveloped Asia-Pacific: mobile data will drive revenue growth in DVAP; fixed broadband revenue will not offset declining fixed voice revenueDeveloped Asia-Pacific:
  • 40. Emerging Asia-Pacific: investment in NGA and competition will drive the growth of fixed broadband household penetration in many countries
  • 41. Emerging Asia-Pacific: competition in both the mobile and fixed markets is expected to intensify across the region
  • 42. Emerging Asia-Pacific: forecast changes
  • 43. Developed Asia-Pacific: mobile data will drive revenue growth in DVAP; fixed broadband revenue will not offset declining fixed voice revenue
  • 44. Developed Asia-Pacific: 99.5% of mobile connections in DVAP will use 4G or 5G in 2023
  • 45. Developed Asia-Pacific: the fixed market in DVAP is very competitive and operators will focus on consumer experience and churn reduction
  • 46. Developed Asia-Pacific: forecast changes
  • 47. Middle East and North Africa: mobile services will account for most of the revenue, but fixed broadband will have the strongest revenue growth
  • 48. Middle East and North Africa: LTE take-up and the launch of 5G services in 2019 will contribute to traffic growth and will reduce the ARPU decline
  • 49. Middle East and North Africa: broadband connections and revenue will grow in the forecast period driven by network roll-out and service demand
  • 50. Middle East and North Africa: forecast changes
  • 51. Sub-Saharan Africa: mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth but mobile voice will continue to be key to service revenue growth
  • 52. Sub-Saharan Africa: wireless access will contribute the largest share of broadband revenue, but fibre will have the highest growth rate
  • 53. Sub-Saharan Africa: FBB services offer strong growth opportunities but they will remain inaccessible to the majority of the region's populationSub-Saharan Africa: forecast changes
  • 54. Latin America: mobile, and particularly handset data, will account for the majority of telecoms revenue growth in the next 5 years
  • 55. Latin America: operators' fibre and cable roll-out plans will have a strong positive effect on NGA adoption and fixed broadband penetration
  • 56. Latin America: growth in mobile connectivity will be limited, but ARPU will be positively affected by an increase in the contract share of connections
  • 57. Latin America: forecast changes
  • 58. North America: the total telecoms service revenue will grow modestly, mostly due to an increase in fixed broadband revenue
  • 59. North America: the growth in mobile penetration will mostly come from Canada, where the mobile market is less competitive than in the USA
  • 60. North America: the competitive market pressure will ease and MNOs will look for new opportunities in the FWA segment
  • 61. North America: forecast changes
  • 62. Methodology
  • 63. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 64. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 65. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 66. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 67. Definition of geographical regions
  • 68. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 69. About the author
  • 70. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 71. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 72. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, worldwide, 2013--2023
  • Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by region, worldwide, 2017--2023
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by region, worldwide, 2017 and 2023
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for worldwide forecasts
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the eight regions modelled individually, 2017
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes worldwide
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory (2018--2023), by region, worldwide
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, worldwide (USD billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, worldwide (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, worldwide, 2013--2023
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, worldwide (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, worldwide (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, worldwide (USD per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), worldwide, 2013--2023
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, worldwide (MB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, worldwide, 2013--2023
  • Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, worldwide, 2013--2023
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, worldwide (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, worldwide (USD billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, worldwide, 2013--2023
  • Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, worldwide (GB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, worldwide, 2013--2023
  • Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, worldwide, 2013--2023
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, worldwide, 2013--2023
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, worldwide, 2013--2023
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, worldwide, 2013--2023
  • Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Western Europe (USD billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Western Europe, 2013--2023
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Western Europe, 2013--2023
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Western Europe (USD per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Western Europe (MB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Western Europe (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Western Europe, 2013--2023
  • Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe (USD billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013--2023
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013--2023
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Central and Eastern Europe (USD per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Central and Eastern Europe (MB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013--2023
  • Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, emerging Asia--Pacific (USD billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, emerging Asia--Pacific (billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2013--2023
  • Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, emerging Asia--Pacific (million), 2013--
  • Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2013--2023
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, emerging Asia--Pacific (USD per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, emerging Asia--Pacific (MB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, emerging Asia--Pacific (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2013--2023
  • Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, developed Asia--Pacific (USD billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, developed Asia--Pacific (million), 2013--
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, developed Asia--Pacific, 2013--2023
  • Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, developed Asia--Pacific (million), 2013--
  • Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, developed Asia--Pacific, 2013--2023
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, developed Asia--Pacific (USD per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, developed Asia--Pacific (MB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, developed Asia--Pacific (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Developed Asia--Pacific, 2013--2023
  • Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
  • Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
  • Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Middle East and North Africa (USD per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Middle East and North Africa (MB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
  • Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013--2023
  • Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013--2023
  • Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (MB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013--2023
  • Figure 81: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Latin America (USD billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 82: Mobile connections by type, Latin America (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 83: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Latin America, 2013--2023
  • Figure 84: Fixed connections by type, Latin America (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 85: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Latin America, 2013--2023
  • Figure 86: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Latin America (USD per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 87: Mobile data traffic per connection, Latin America (MB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 88: Broadband connections by technology, Latin America (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 89: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Latin America, 2013--2023
  • Figure 90: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, North America (USD billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 91: Mobile connections by type, North America (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 92: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, North America, 2013--2023
  • Figure 93: Fixed connections by type, North America (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 94: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, North America, 2013--2023
  • Figure 95: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, North America (USD per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 96: Mobile data traffic per connection, North America (MB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 97: Broadband connections by technology, North America (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 98: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, North America, 2013--2023
  • Figure 99a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 99b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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