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市場調査レポート

ラテンアメリカの通信市場:動向と予測 (2015-2020年)

Latin America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 263238
出版日 ページ情報 英文 52 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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ラテンアメリカの通信市場:動向と予測 (2015-2020年) Latin America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
出版日: 2015年06月04日 ページ情報: 英文 52 Slides
概要

端末の入手性の向上や前回のクリスマス期間中の魅力的なキャンペーン、さらなるネットワークの展開などから、ラテンアメリカのほとんどの市場でLTEの導入が加速しています。ブラジルでは2014年第4四半期における4Gの純増数が過去最高の70万件に達し、コロンビアでは過去3四半期において4Gの導入が大幅に加速しています。

当レポートでは、ラテンアメリカの通信市場について調査し、固定・モバイル通信のトラフィック、接続数、収益、技術・契約区分・端末区分・サービス区分別の内訳、主要7カ国の詳細分析、市場成長の推進因子の分析などをまとめています。

エグゼクティブサマリー

地域別の予測・国別の比較

  • 対象地域:ラテンアメリカの通信サービス収益の約90%を占める7カ国市場
  • 市場の背景:各国のモバイル普及率と収益シェア
  • 収益とARPU
  • モバイル普及率
  • モバイル接続数
  • スマートフォンとLTE
  • モバイルのARPU
  • 固定サービス
  • 固定ブロードバンド
  • 主な成長推進因子

国別の予測

  • アルゼンチン
  • ブラジル
  • チリ
  • コロンビア
  • メキシコ
  • ペルー
  • ベネズエラ

著者とAnalysys Masonについて

図表

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目次

“Mobile services will account for more than 60% of the telecoms revenue growth in Latin America between 2014 and 2020.”

LTE take-up is accelerating in most markets in Latin America (LATAM) thanks to increasing handset availability, attractive packages during the latest Christmas campaign and further network roll-out. In Brazil, 4G net additions reached 700 000 in 4Q 2014 (their highest level), while in Colombia 4G adoption accelerated significantly during the past three quarters. We forecast that LTE will account for 19% of mobile SIMs in LATAM by 2020.

Mobile revenue will continue to grow in all markets - albeit slowly, as competition intensifies. Several markets are quite dynamic in terms of M&A and network deployment (of cable, fibre and LTE) and competition is intensifying as new MVNOs enter the market (particularly in Brazil, Chile and Colombia). MTR cuts in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico will intensify price pressure. Substitution of traditional services by over-the-top (OTT) alternatives is strong in Brazil and will accelerate in markets with high smartphone take-up (such as Argentina, Chile and Mexico).

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for the LATAM region as a whole and seven key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

SAMPLE PAGES

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageMajor KPIs 

Region modelled

  • Latin America

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA

Revenue
Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA

 

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice

Countries not modelled individually, but modelled as part of the region as a whole

Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Netherlands Antilles, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, Bolivia, Cayman Islands, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, French Guiana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Monsterrat, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Puerto Rico, St Kitts and Nevis, St Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands, Uruguay, British Virgin Islands and US Virgin Islands.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Pablo Iacopino (Senior Analyst) focuses on forecasting and analysing telecoms markets in Europe and Latin America. He leads Analysys Mason's Global Telecoms Forecasts and European Core Forecasts research programmes, and is the lead analyst for research on the Latin America region. Pablo is also a key contributor to our European Country Reports and Telecoms Market Matrix. Pablo joined Analysys Mason in 2012, after 8 years in the telecoms industry. He worked for 5 years in Strategy and Investor Relations at Telecom Italia, where he was responsible for European telecoms benchmarking, followed by 3 years in investment banking as a senior equity research analyst covering telecoms stocks. Pablo specialises in industry analysis, benchmarking, modelling, forecasts and valuation. He holds a Master's degree in business administration and a postgraduate Master's degree in statistics and economics from Università degli Studi di Roma 'La Sapienza'.

Roman Orvisky (Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing mainly to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts and European Country Reports programmes. Prior to joining Analysys Mason in November 2014, he worked in the Transaction Services department of the Royal Bank of Scotland in a customer experience internship role. During his studies, Roman focused on consumer behaviour in an online context, and has experience in churn modelling in the telecoms sector, social network analysis and browsing data analysis. Roman holds a Bachelor's degree in business from Durham University, and an MSc in marketing research from the Tilburg University School of Economics and Management.

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary
  • 9. Latin America's telecoms market offers significant growth opportunities for operators - service revenue will reach USD140 billion by 2020
  • 10. Mobile handset data services will be the largest source of retail revenue growth in LATAM between 2014 and 2020, followed by fixed broadband
  • 11. Telecoms retail revenue will grow in all markets between 2014 and 2020, although regulatory activity will constrain growth in Chile and Mexico
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15. Geographical coverage: We model the seven largest markets, which account for about 90% of Latin America's total telecoms service revenue
  • 16. Market context: Mobile penetration exceeds 100% in all countries except Mexico, and Brazil and Mexico account for 61% of the region's revenue
  • 17. Revenue and ARPU: Mobile handset data services will overtake mobile voice services in 2020 and become the largest source of retail revenue
  • 18. Mobile penetration: Most handset markets are saturated and offer low growth prospects, and non-handset broadband take-up is slowing down
  • 19. Mobile connections: LTE is making an impact in Latin America and will account for 19% of mobile SIMs (excluding M2M) by 2020
  • 20. Smartphones and LTE: Brazil will have the highest smartphone population penetration and LTE take-up rates over the next 5 years
  • 21. Mobile ARPU: Competition is set to intensify in all markets and will drive down ARPU, while Argentina and Venezuela will have high inflation
  • 22. Fixed services: Cable services will gain the most subscribers - driven by pay-TV bundles - but DSL will retain the largest share through 2020
  • 23. Fixed broadband: Household penetration will grow in all markets through 2019 as competition stimulates demand and multi-play adoption grows
  • 24. Key drivers at a glance
  • 25. Individual country forecasts
  • 26. Argentina: Service revenue will reach ARS122 billion in 2020, but high inflation will be partly responsible for this growth
  • 27. Argentina - mobile: Penetration peaked in 2013 and will decline further as multiple-SIM ownership shrinks
  • 28. Argentina - fixed: Broadband penetration growth will be mainly driven by single-play voice and pay-TV users adding broadband
  • 29. Brazil: Service revenue will continue to grow through 2019 as LTE drives up data spending and fixed broadband take-up accelerates
  • 30. Brazil - mobile: LTE gains strength, but regulation, price competition and substitution to OTT services will reduce ARPU
  • 31. Brazil - fixed: The broadband market will become more dynamic thanks to fibre take-up and fixed-mobile bundles
  • 32. Chile: Data revenue growth will offset the decline in mobile voice revenue, which will be driven by MTR cuts and MVNO competition
  • 33. Chile - mobile: Mobile ARPU will remain almost stable as data usage compensates for the strong pressure on voice prices
  • 34. Chile - fixed: Fixed-mobile substitution will drive down fixed voice revenue while fixed broadband will maintain solid growth
  • 35. Colombia: Service revenue will stagnate after a peak in 2018 because fixed and mobile data growth will eventually slow down
  • 36. Colombia - mobile: OTT services will almost completely eliminate mobile messaging revenue by 2020 and LTE take-up will be slow
  • 37. Colombia - fixed: Growth in the broadband market will continue thanks to expanded coverage and service bundling
  • 38. Mexico: Regulation will limit mobile revenue growth in the short term, but may ultimately unlock the market's potential
  • 39. Mexico - mobile: AT&T's market entry and Telefónica's presence will make the market more dynamic
  • 40. Mexico - fixed: Broadband growth will accelerate as operators invest in coverage and fixed voice remains resilient
  • 41. Peru: Service revenue will reach PEN17 billion in 2020 as improvements in 3G and 4G networks drive mobile revenue
  • 42. Peru - mobile: Small operators are gaining momentum, which will make the mobile market more dynamic and drive growth
  • 43. Peru - fixed: Low-ASPU cable connections will drive a short-term decline in fixed broadband ASPU, but it will eventually stabilise
  • 44. Venezuela: Service revenue will reach VEF238 billion in 2020, driven by data services and boosted by a high rate of inflation
  • 45. Venezuela - mobile: LTE will gain strength because operators have to meet population coverage targets conditions
  • 46. Venezuela - fixed: The broadband market will grow slowly because fixed competition is low and LTE will boost mobile Internet usage
  • 47. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 48. About the authors
  • 49. About Analysys Mason
  • 50. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 51. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Latin America, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Latin America, 2014-2020
  • Figure 3: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by country, Latin America
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Latin America
  • Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, Latin America, 2020
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the seven countries modelled individually in Latin America, 2014
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Latin America, 2010-2020
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Latin America, 2014-2020
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Latin America, 2014-2020
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Latin America, 2010-2020
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, Latin America, 2010-2020
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Latin America, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Latin America, 2010-20201
  • Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Latin America, 2010-2020
  • Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Latin America, 2010-2020
  • Figure 16: Major forecast drivers and impact, by country, Latin America, 2015-2020
  • Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Argentina, 2010-2020
  • Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Argentina, 2010-2020
  • Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, Argentina, 2010-2020
  • Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Argentina, 2010-2020
  • Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Argentina, 2010-2020
  • Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Argentina
  • Figure 23: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Argentina, 2010-2020
  • Figure 24: Fixed ASPU by service type, Argentina, 2010-2020
  • Figure 25: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Argentina
  • Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Brazil, 2010-2020
  • Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Brazil, 2010-2020
  • Figure 28: Connections by type, and growth rates, Brazil, 2010-2020
  • Figure 29: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Brazil, 2010-2020
  • Figure 30: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Brazil, 2010-2020
  • Figure 31: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Brazil
  • Figure 32: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Brazil, 2010-2020
  • Figure 33: Fixed ASPU by service type, Brazil, 2010-2020
  • Figure 34: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Brazil
  • Figure 35: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Chile, 2010-2020
  • Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Chile, 2010-2020
  • Figure 37: Connections by type, and growth rates, Chile, 2010-2020
  • Figure 38: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Chile, 2010-2020
  • Figure 39: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Chile, 2010-2020
  • Figure 40: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Chile
  • Figure 41: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Chile, 2010-2020
  • Figure 42: Fixed ASPU by service type, Chile, 2010-2020
  • Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Chile
  • Figure 44: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Colombia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Colombia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 46: Connections by type, and growth rates, Colombia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 47: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Colombia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 48: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Colombia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 49: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Colombia
  • Figure 50: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Colombia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 51: Fixed ASPU by service type, Colombia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 52: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Colombia
  • Figure 53: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Mexico, 2010-2020
  • Figure 54: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Mexico, 2010-2020
  • Figure 55: Connections by type, and growth rates, Mexico, 2010-2020
  • Figure 56: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Mexico, 2010-2020
  • Figure 57: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Mexico, 2010-2020
  • Figure 58: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Mexico
  • Figure 59: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Mexico, 2010-2020
  • Figure 60: Fixed ASPU by service type, Mexico, 2010-2020
  • Figure 61: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Mexico
  • Figure 62: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Peru, 2010-2020
  • Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Peru, 2010-2020
  • Figure 64: Connections by type, and growth rates, Peru, 2010-2020
  • Figure 65: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Peru, 2010-2020
  • Figure 66: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Peru, 2010-2020
  • Figure 67: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Peru
  • Figure 68: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Peru, 2010-2020
  • Figure 69: Fixed ASPU by service type, Peru, 2010-2020
  • Figure 70: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Peru
  • Figure 71: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Venezuela, 2010-2020
  • Figure 72: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Venezuela, 2010-2020
  • Figure 73: Connections by type, and growth rates, Venezuela, 2010-2020
  • Figure 74: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Venezuela, 2010-2020
  • Figure 75: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Venezuela, 2010-2020
  • Figure 76: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Venezuela
  • Figure 77: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Venezuela, 2010-2020
  • Figure 78: Fixed ASPU by service type, Venezuela, 2010-2020
  • Figure 79: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Venezuela
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