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ラテンアメリカの通信市場:動向と予測 (2016-2021年)

Latin America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 263238
出版日 ページ情報 英文 53 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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ラテンアメリカの通信市場:動向と予測 (2016-2021年) Latin America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2016-2021
出版日: 2016年09月26日 ページ情報: 英文 53 Slides
概要

ラテンアメリカの通信会社全体の収益は主要市場において今後も成長する見通しです。モバイルサービス面ではスマートフォンおよび4Gの普及、固定サービス面では高速ブロードバンドに関してまだ大きな成長の余地があるためです。モバイルおよび固定インフラサービス両面においてかなりの事業者投資が見込まれ、ほとんどの市場では経済成長が期待できるため、最新の通信サービスがより一層利用しやすくなる見通しです。

当レポートでは、ラテンアメリカの通信市場について調査し、固定・モバイル通信のトラフィック、接続数、収益、技術・契約区分・端末区分・サービス区分別の内訳、主要7カ国の詳細分析、市場成長の推進因子の分析などをまとめています。

エグゼクティブサマリー

地域別の予測・国別の比較

  • 対象地域
  • 市場の背景
  • 収益とARPU
  • モバイル普及率
  • モバイル接続数
  • スマートフォンとLTE
  • モバイルブロードバンド
  • モバイルのARPU
  • データおよび収益:世代別
  • 固定サービス
  • 固定ブロードバンド
  • 主な成長推進因子

国別の予測

  • アルゼンチン
  • ブラジル
  • チリ
  • コロンビア
  • メキシコ
  • ペルー

著者とAnalysys Masonについて

図表

このページに掲載されている内容は最新版と異なる場合があります。詳細はお問い合わせください。

目次

"Roll-out of next-generation access broadband will be the key theme over the next 5 years in the Latin America broadband market."

Total telecoms revenue will grow in major Latin America markets, as there is significant room for growth in terms of smartphone and 4G penetration on the mobile side and high-speed broadband on the fixed side. Sizeable operator investments in both mobile and fixed infrastructure and expected economic growth in most markets will further improve affordability of advanced telecoms services.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of 175 mobile and fixed KPIs for Latin America, as a whole and 7 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • Latin America

Countries modelled individually

  • Argentina
  • Brazil
  • Chile
  • Colombia
  • Mexico
  • Peru
  • Venezuela

Countries not modelled individually,
but modelled as part of the region as a whole

  • Anguilla
  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • Netherlands Antilles
  • Aruba
  • Bahamas
  • Barbados
  • Belize
  • Bermuda
  • Bolivia
  • Cayman Islands
  • Costa Rica
  • Cuba
  • Dominica
  • Dominican Republic
  • Ecuador
  • El Salvador
  • French Guiana
  • Grenada
  • Guadeloupe
  • Guatemala
  • Guyana
  • Haiti
  • Honduras
  • Jamaica
  • Martinique
  • Monsterrat
  • Nicaragua
  • Panama
  • Paraguay
  • Puerto Rico
  • St Kitts and Nevis
  • St Lucia
  • St Vincent and the Grenadines
  • Suriname
  • Trinidad and Tobago
  • Turks and Caicos Islands
  • Uruguay
  • British Virgin Islands
  • US Virgin Islands

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary
  • 9. Total retail revenue growth will accelerate, as regulatory impact on revenue dissipates and data service adoption grows
  • 10. Handset data and fixed broadband will be the main growth drivers
  • 11. Revenue will grow in most LATAM markets over the forecast period
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14. Regional forecasts and cross - country comparison
  • 15. Geographical coverage: The 7 largest markets by revenue in the region modelled individually
  • 16. Market context: Economic struggles are affecting a number of markets, while foreign exchange movements mask continued growth in others
  • 17. Revenue and ARPU: Almost two thirds of total mobile retail revenue will come from data in 2021
  • 18. Mobile penetration: Mexico and Peru will be the only two major markets with strong mobile user base growth
  • 19. Mobile connections: 3G will continue to be the leading technology in LATAM through 2021
  • 20. Smartphones and LTE: Device affordability will be key in driving smartphone penetration
  • 21. Mobile broadband: Growth in connected tablets will mitigate the decline of large - screen mobile broadband devices
  • 22. Mobile ARPU: User base rationalisation and 4G take - up will sustain mobile ARPU across the region
  • 23. Data and revenue by generation: 3G will still be the main source of mobile service revenue in LATAM in 2021
  • 24. Fixed services: IPTV will remain a niche product, due to a restrictive regulatory environment in Argentina and Mexico
  • 25. Fixed broadband: Chile became the leader in fixed broadband penetration in 2015 and will remain so throughout the forecast period
  • 26. Key drivers at a glance for each Latin America market
  • 27. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 28. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 29. Individual country forecasts
  • 30. Argentina: Inflation will drive revenue growth in nominal terms
  • 31. Argentina - mobile: Grupo Clarin?fs acquisition of Nextel should intensify competition in an already contested market
  • 32. Argentina - fixed: Growth in fixed broadband has been sluggish, and concentrated mainly in cable
  • 33. Brazil: Strong growth in handset data revenue should compensate for declining mobile voice revenue
  • 34. Brazil - mobile: User base has declined sharply by nearly 25 million, as MTR cuts limit the usefulness of owning multiple SIMs
  • 35. Brazil - fixed: Broadband growth slowed, despite a rapidly increasing cable user base
  • 36. Chile: Short - term revenue growth will be driven by handset data and fixed broadband
  • 37. Chile - mobile: ARPU is being sustained by 4G take - up and low - value prepaid subscription losses
  • 38. Chile - fixed: Speed upgrades continue to drive broadband ASPU up
  • 39. Colombia: MTR cuts will have a significant effect on mobile revenue
  • 40. Colombia - mobile: Alternative 4G operators grew at the expense of MVNOs in 2015
  • 41. Colombia - fixed: Improvements in broadband affordability will drive user base growth
  • 42. Mexico: Revenue will grow, as intensifying competition in the mobile market will drive user base growth and data spending
  • 43. Mexico - mobile: Telcel?fs dominance is being challenged by both AT&T and continued regulatory measures
  • 44. Mexico - fixed: The fixed broadband market has increased in 2015 and growth should continue through the forecast period
  • 45. Peru: Revenue growth will be driven by increasing mobile data usage and fixed broadband adoption
  • 46. Peru - mobile: Relatively low mobile penetration and data usage leave a lot of potential for growth
  • 47. Peru - fixed: Broadband ASPU has started to fall to more affordable levels
  • 48. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 49. About the authors
  • 50. Analysys Mason?fs consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 51. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 52. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Latin America, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Latin America, 2015 - 2021
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, Latin America, 2015 - 2021
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Latin America
  • Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA share of fixed broadband connections, by country, Latin America, 2021
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the 7 countries modelled individually in Latin America, 2015
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Latin America, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Latin America, 2015 - 2021
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Latin America, 2015 - 2021
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Latin America, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Latin America, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G/5G?fs share of connections, Latin America, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE?fs share of total connections (excluding M2M), Latin America, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, Latin America, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by country, Latin America, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Latin America, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, Latin America, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Latin America, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 18: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Latin America, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 19: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2015) and future trajectory (2016 - 2021), by country, Latin America
  • Figure 20: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Argentina, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Argentina, 2015 - 2021
  • Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, Argentina, 2015 - 2021
  • Figure 24: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Argentina, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 25: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Argentina, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 26: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Argentina
  • Figure 27: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Argentina, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 28: Fixed ASPU by service type, Argentina, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 29: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Argentina
  • Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Brazil, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Brazil, 2015 - 2021
  • Figure 32: Connections by type, and growth rates, Brazil, 2015 - 2021
  • Figure 33: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Brazil, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 34: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Brazil, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 35: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Brazil
  • Figure 36: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Brazil, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 37: Fixed ASPU by service type, Brazil, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 38: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Brazil
  • Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Chile, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Chile, 2015 - 2021
  • Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, Chile, 2015 - 2021
  • Figure 42: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Chile, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 43: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Chile, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 44: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Chile
  • Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Chile, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 46: Fixed ASPU by service type, Chile, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 47: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Chile
  • Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Colombia, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 49: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Colombia, 2015 - 2021
  • Figure 50: Connections by type, and growth rates, Colombia, 2015 - 2021
  • Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Colombia, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 52: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Colombia, 2011 - 20211
  • Figure 53: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Colombia
  • Figure 54: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Colombia, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 55: Fixed ASPU by service type, Colombia, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 56: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Colombia
  • Figure 57: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Mexico, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 58: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Mexico, 2015 - 2021
  • Figure 59: Connections by type, and growth rates, Mexico, 2015 - 2021
  • Figure 60: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Mexico, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 61: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Mexico, 2011 - 20211
  • Figure 62: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Mexico
  • Figure 63: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Mexico, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 64: Fixed ASPU by service type, Mexico, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 65: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Mexico
  • Figure 66: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Peru, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 67: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Peru, 2015 - 2021
  • Figure 68: Connections by type, and growth rates, Peru, 2015 - 2021
  • Figure 69: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Peru, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 70: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Peru, 2011 - 20211
  • Figure 71: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Peru
  • Figure 72: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Peru, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 73: Fixed ASPU by service type, Peru, 2011 - 2021
  • Figure 74: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Peru
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