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ラテンアメリカの通信市場:動向と予測

Latin America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 263238
出版日 ページ情報 英文 52 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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ラテンアメリカの通信市場:動向と予測 Latin America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
出版日: 2017年10月20日 ページ情報: 英文 52 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、ラテンアメリカの通信市場について調査し、固定・モバイル通信のトラフィック、接続数、収益、技術・契約区分・端末区分・サービス区分別の内訳、主要6カ国の詳細分析、市場成長の推進因子の分析などをまとめています。

エグゼクティブサマリー

地域別の予測・国別の比較

  • 対象地域
  • 市場の背景
  • 収益とARPU
  • モバイル普及率
  • モバイル接続数
  • スマートフォンとLTE
  • モバイルブロードバンド
  • モバイルのARPU
  • データおよび収益:世代別
  • 固定サービス
  • 固定ブロードバンド
  • 主な成長推進因子

国別の予測

  • アルゼンチン
  • ブラジル
  • チリ
  • コロンビア
  • メキシコ
  • ペルー

著者とAnalysys Masonについて

図表

目次

"Data demand will drive growth in both the mobile and fixed markets in Latin America."

All six major mobile markets in Latin America (LATAM) have gone through a period of intense competition in recent years, which we expect to ease off as voice prices bottom out and operators increasingly focus on upselling data propositions. In the fixed markets, room remains for penetration growth, as well as upselling of higher access speeds; it should therefore be easier for fixed operators to monetise the substantial demand for Internet access.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for Latin America as a whole and for six key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • Latin America

Countries modelled individually

  • Argentina
  • Brazil
  • Chile
  • Colombia
  • Mexico
  • Peru

Countries not modelled individually,
but modelled as part of the region as a whole

  • Anguilla
  • Antigua and Barbuda
  • Netherlands Antilles
  • Aruba
  • Bahamas
  • Barbados
  • Belize
  • Bermuda
  • Bolivia
  • Cayman Islands
  • Costa Rica
  • Cuba
  • Dominica
  • Dominican Republic
  • Ecuador
  • El Salvador
  • French Guiana
  • Grenada
  • Guadeloupe
  • Guatemala
  • Guyana
  • Haiti
  • Honduras
  • Jamaica
  • Martinique
  • Monsterrat
  • Nicaragua
  • Panama
  • Paraguay
  • Puerto Rico
  • St Kitts and Nevis
  • St Lucia
  • St Vincent and the Grenadines
  • Suriname
  • Trinidad and Tobago
  • Turks and Caicos Islands
  • Uruguay
  • British Virgin Islands
  • US Virgin Islands

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Roman Orvisky (Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Forecasts programmes. Prior to joining Analysys Mason in November 2014, he worked in the Transaction Services department of the Royal Bank of Scotland in a customer experience internship role. During hisstudies, Roman focused on consumer behaviour in an online context, and has experience in churn modelling in the telecoms sector, social network analysis and browsing data analysis. Roman holds a Bachelor's degree in business from Durham University, and an MSc in marketingresearch from the Tilburg University School of Economics and Management.

Table of Contents

  • 8.Executive summary
  • 9.Revenue in Latin America will continue to grow during the forecast period, but at a slowing pace
  • 10.Mobile data and fixed broadband will drive revenue growth in Latin America
  • 11.We expect revenue growth in mobile markets to outpace fixed markets in most countries in Latin America
  • 12.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15.Geographical coverage: The share of NGA will be lowest in Mexico, while the share of 4G connections will lag behind in Colombia and Peru
  • 16.Market context: Economic growth is expected across the region
  • 17.Revenue and ARPU: Revenue growth will slow down as emerging markets approach saturation
  • 18.Mobile penetration: Convergence towards approximately 110% will continue
  • 19.Mobile connections: The number of 4G connections will grow rapidly, but 3G will continue to grow
  • 20.Smartphones and LTE: Operators have been successful in increasing smartphone penetration, but more will be needed to achieve saturation
  • 21.Mobile ARPU: Trends will be stable in most countries due to the contrasting impact of both competition and data usage uplift
  • 22.Data and revenue by generation: Operators should exploit the surging demand for mobile data in Latin America
  • 23.Fixed services: Cable will be the main source of broadband growth
  • 24.Fixed broadband: Chile will continue to lead the region in penetration
  • 25.Key drivers at a glance for each market in Latin America
  • 26.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 27.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 28.Individual country forecasts
  • 29.Argentina: Inflation-driven market will continue to grow, but the pace of growth will slow down
  • 30.Argentina - mobile: ARPU growth will continue even as inflation slows down
  • 31.Argentina - fixed: Broadband penetration growth stagnated in 2016, but will accelerate again
  • 32.Brazil: Revenue will be stable as competition in the mobile market will counteract growth in fixed broadband revenue
  • 33.Brazil - mobile: A positive ARPU trend masks stagnant revenue as the number of connections declines
  • 34.Brazil - fixed: User base growth will be the main broadband market driver, as we expect ARPU growth to stagnate
  • 35.Chile: Revenue will grow slowly as broadband growth slows down
  • 36.Chile - mobile: Growth in data revenue will counteract the negative impact of termination rate cuts on ARPU
  • 37.Chile - fixed: Upselling will support ARPU growth
  • 38.Colombia: Both fixed and mobile segments will grow
  • 39.Colombia - mobile: Growing user base and data consumption will prevent revenue decline
  • 40.Colombia - fixed: The broadband market will continue to grow through user base expansion and upselling
  • 41.Mexico: Telecoms market will recover after a sustained period of decline, induced by intense mobile competition
  • 42.Mexico - mobile: User base growth and the bottoming out of traditional service pricing will help revenue trends to turnaround
  • 43.Mexico - fixed: Cable operators will drive growth in the fixed market
  • 44.Peru: Revenue growth will slow down as mobile competition intensifies
  • 45.Peru - mobile: Previously rapid user base growth will slow down, and competition will prevent ARPU growth
  • 46.Peru - fixed: Prices will continue to fall, but the decline will be more than compensated for by connection growth
  • 47.About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 48.About the author
  • 49.About Analysys Mason
  • 50.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 51.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Latin America, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Latin America, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, Latin America, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Latin America
  • Figure 5: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Latin America, 2022
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the 6 countries modelled individually in Latin America, 2016
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Latin America, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Latin America, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Latin America, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Latin America, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, Latin America, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Latin America, 2016 and 2022
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Latin America, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 14: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, Latin America, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 15: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, Latin America, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 16: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Latin America, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 17: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Latin America, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 18: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2012) and future trajectory (2017- 2022), by country, Latin America
  • Figure 19a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 19b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 20: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Argentina, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Argentina, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 22: Connections by type, and growth rates, Argentina, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 23: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Argentina, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 24: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Argentina, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 25: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Argentina
  • Figure 26: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Argentina, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 27: Fixed ASPU by service type, Argentina, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 28: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Argentina
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Brazil, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Brazil, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 31: Connections by type, and growth rates, Brazil, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 32: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Brazil, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 33: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Brazil, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 34: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Brazil
  • Figure 35: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Brazil, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 36: Fixed ASPU by service type, Brazil, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 37: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Brazil
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Chile, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Chile, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 40: Connections by type, and growth rates, Chile, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 41: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Chile, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 42: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Chile, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 43: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Chile
  • Figure 44: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Chile, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 45: Fixed ASPU by service type, Chile, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 46: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Chile
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Colombia, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Colombia, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 49: Connections by type, and growth rates, Colombia, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 50: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Colombia, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 51: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Colombia, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 52: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Colombia
  • Figure 53: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Colombia, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 54: Fixed ASPU by service type, Colombia, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 55: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Colombia
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Mexico, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 57: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Mexico, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 58: Connections by type, and growth rates, Mexico, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 59: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Mexico, 2012-
  • Figure 60: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Mexico, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 61: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Mexico
  • Figure 62: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Mexico, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 63: Fixed ASPU by service type, Mexico, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 64: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Mexico
  • Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Peru, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 66: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Peru, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 67: Connections by type, and growth rates, Peru, 2016- 2022
  • Figure 68: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Peru, 2012-
  • Figure 69: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Peru, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 70: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Peru
  • Figure 71: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Peru, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 72: Fixed ASPU by service type, Peru, 2012- 2022
  • Figure 73: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Peru
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