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ラテンアメリカの通信市場の動向と予測

Latin America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 263238
出版日 ページ情報 英文 42 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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ラテンアメリカの通信市場の動向と予測 Latin America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023
出版日: 2019年01月08日 ページ情報: 英文 42 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、ラテンアメリカ (LATAM) の通信市場について調査し、地域全体と主要6ヶ国におけるモバイル・固定KPIの5ヵ年予測を提供しており、主要国における各モバイル・固定サービスタイプの動向・促進因子・予測の前提条件の詳細分析、オペレーター戦略と国別のトピックの概要、およびモバイル・固定オペレーターへの主な提言などをまとめています。

調査内容

  • 190以上の主要モバイル・有線KPIの5カ年予測:主要6カ国
  • 市場動向・成長推進因子・予測影響因子の分析
  • オペレーター各社の戦略概要・国別トピックス
  • まとめ・提言など

調査対象国

  • アルゼンチン
  • ブラジル
  • チリ
  • コロンビア
  • メキシコ
  • ペルー

調査対象KPIの例

  • 接続数
    • モバイル
      • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・IoT
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 2G・3G・4G・5G
      • スマートフォン・非スマートフォン
    • 有線
      • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイアルアップ
      • ナローバンド音声・VoBB
      • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・5G・その他
  • 収益
    • モバイル
      • サービス・リテール
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・IoT
      • 端末音声・メッセージング・データ
    • 有線
      • サービス・リテール
      • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイアルアップ・BNS
      • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・その他
  • 音声トラフィック
    • 有線 & モバイル
      • 発信時間・MoU
  • ARPU
    • モバイル
      • SIM・端末
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 端末音声・データ
目次

"Mobile services will account for over half of the telecoms revenue growth in Latin America."

The telecoms sector in Latin America (LATAM) will grow slowly over time, driven by mobile data services and increased next-generation access (NGA) adoption. This report provides an analysis of the main telecoms trends in Latin America and explains how they will evolve in the next 5 years.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the LATAM region as a whole and six key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • Latin America
    (LATAM)

Countries modelled individually

  • Argentina
  • Brazil
  • Chile
  • Colombia
  • Mexico
  • Peru

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone,
  • non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary and recommendations
  • 9. Mobile data services, fixed broadband and pay TV will drive the growth in telecoms retail revenue in Latin America
  • 10. Telecoms retail revenue will grow across the region but at a slower rate than the rest of the economy
  • 11. Geographical coverage: 4G take-up will improve considerably across the region thanks to strong investments by operators
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13. Key recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15. Market context: economic recovery will continue in most countries, but this will have a limited impact on the telecoms sector
  • 16. Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries
  • 17. Key drivers at a glance for each Latin America market
  • 18. Market overview: mobile, and particularly handset data, will account for the majority of telecoms revenue growth in the next 5 years
  • 19. Mobile: operators' focus on growing their postpaid subscriber bases will result in data consumption growth and a positive ARPU trend
  • 20. Mobile: mobile ARPU in LATAM will remain largely constant, except in Argentina due to inflation and in Brazil due to a shift from prepaid to contract connections
  • 21. Mobile: growth in connectivity will be limited, but ARPU will be positively affected by an increase in the contract share of connections
  • 22. Fixed: total fixed revenue will stay mostly constant as fixed voice revenue will continue to fall while fixed broadband revenue will grow strongly
  • 23. Fixed: the adoption of faster technologies will drive fixed broadband ARPU growth in most countries except Peru where affordability issues will cause ARPU to decline
  • 24. Fixed: operators' fibre and cable roll-out plans will have a strong positive effect on NGA adoption and fixed broadband penetration across the region
  • 25. Business services: new services will drive revenue growth but dedicated business solutions will remain an important source of revenue
  • 26. IoT: there will be significant growth in IoT connectivity, but IoT will contribute only a small amount to the total operator revenue
  • 27. Pay TV: the popularity of local TV content and sports (particularly football) will prevent a substantial decline in pay-TV prices
  • 28. Individual country forecasts
  • 29. Argentina: high inflation will be an artificial driver of revenue growth across all telecoms services in the country
  • 30. Argentina: the use of DSL will fall rapidly during the forecast period following replacement by cable, fibre and fixed-LTE services
  • 31. Argentina: the uncertainty caused by the current economic crisis is harming the telecoms sector, but fixed broadband connectivity will growth over time
  • 32. Argentina: forecast changes
  • 33. Brazil: total telecoms revenue will increase because revenue growth in fixed broadband and mobile data will outweigh the decline in fixed voice revenue
  • 34. Brazil: the contract share of handset connections will increase rapidly during the forecast period, reaching 50% of all handsets by 2022
  • 35. Brazil: the telecoms sector will fare reasonably well despite the difficult economic situation in recent quarters
  • 36. Brazil: forecast changes
  • 37. Chile: revenue will growth within the forecast period due to increases in fixed broadband and mobile handset revenue
  • 38. Chile: the shift from prepaid to postpaid connections will continue because operators have started offering appealing data plans at reasonable prices
  • 39. Chile: fixed broadband ARPU will increase thanks to growth in NGA connectivity, but this will be counterbalanced by a fall in fixed voice ARPU
  • 40. Chile: forecast changes
  • 41. Colombia: the total telecoms revenue will growth slowly between 2018 and 2023, driven mostly by an increase in fixed broadband revenue
  • 42. Colombia: the 4G share of mobile connections is expected to grow during the forecast period because mobile operators will roll out LTE-A networks
  • 43. Colombia: FBB ASPU will grow by 14% during the forecast period as the number of cable connections grows and fibre becomes more widespread
  • 44. Colombia: forecast changes
  • 45. Mexico: mobile services will be responsible for most of the revenue growth as the decline in fixed voice revenue will offset the increase in FBB revenue
  • 46. Mexico: fixed broadband and mobile revenue will increase throughout the forecast period thanks to increased coverage and improved service quality
  • 47. Mexico: investments in wireless technology will continue to drive 4G adoption and will lead to growth in the number of BFWA connections
  • 48. Mexico: forecast changes
  • 49. Peru: strong economic activity will lead to an increased in the number of mobile and fixed connections
  • 50. Peru: competitive pressure in the fixed segment will hamper revenue growth despite a strong increase in the number of connections
  • 51. Peru: 4G roll-outs will help to increase mobile penetration and will provide fixed broadband coverage in remote areas
  • 52. Peru: forecast changes
  • 53. Methodology
  • 54. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 55. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 56. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 57. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 58. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 59. About the authors
  • 60. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 61. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 62. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Latin America, 2013-2023
  • Figure 2: Growth in both telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Latin America, 2017-2023
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Latin America, 2017 and 20231
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Latin America
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the six countries modelled individually in Latin America, 2017
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Latin America
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory (2018-2023), by country, Latin America
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Latin America (USD billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Latin America (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Latin America, 2013-2023
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Latin America (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Latin America (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Latin America (USD per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Latin America, 2013-2023
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Latin America (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, Latin America, 2013-2023
  • Figure 17: Mobile ARPU by country, Latin America, 2013-2023
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Latin America (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Latin America (USD billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Latin America, 2013-2023
  • Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Latin America (GB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Latin America, 2013-2023
  • Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Latin America, 2013-2023
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Latin America, 2013-2023
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Latin America, 2014-2023
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Latin America, 2014-2023
  • Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Argentina (ARS billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Argentina (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Argentina, 2013-2023
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Argentina (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Argentina, 2013-2023
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Argentina (ARS per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Argentina (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Argentina (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Argentina, 2013-2023
  • Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Brazil (BRL billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Brazil (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Brazil, 2013-2023
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Brazil (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Brazil, 2013-2023
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Brazil (BRL per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Brazil (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Brazil (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Brazil, 2013-2023
  • Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Chile (CLP trillion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Chile (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Chile, 2013-2023
  • Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Chile (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Chile, 2013-2023
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Chile (CLP thousand per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Chile (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Chile (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Chile, 2013-2023
  • Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Colombia (COP trillion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Colombia (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Colombia, 2013-2023
  • Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Colombia (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 58: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Colombia, 2013-2023
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Colombia (COP thousand per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Colombia (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Colombia (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Colombia, 2013-2023
  • Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Mexico (MXN billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Mexico (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Mexico, 2013-2023
  • Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Mexico (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Mexico, 2013-2023
  • Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Mexico (MXN per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Mexico (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Mexico (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Mexico, 2013-2023
  • Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Peru (PEN billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Peru (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Peru, 2013-2023
  • Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Peru (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 76: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Peru, 2013-2023
  • Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Peru (PEN per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Peru (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Peru (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Peru, 2013-2023
  • Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Latin America, 2013-2023
  • Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Latin America, 2017-2023
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Latin America, 2017 and 20231
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Latin America
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the six countries modelled individually in Latin America, 2017
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Latin America
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory (2018-2023), by country, Latin America
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Latin America (USD billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Latin America (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Latin America, 2013-2023
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Latin America (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Latin America (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 13: Mobile AROPU by type, Latin America (USD per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding) IoT, Latin America, 2013-2023
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Latin America (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 16: Mobile penetration by country, Latin America, 2013-2023
  • Figure 17: Mobile AROPU by region, Latin America, 2013-2023
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Latin America (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 19: Broadband connections by technology, Latin America (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Latin America, 2013-2023
  • Figure 21: Fixed internet traffic per broadband connection, Latin America (GB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 22: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Latin America, 2013-2023
  • Figure 23: Fixed broadband access ASOU by country, Latin America, 2013-2023
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Latin America, 2013-2023
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Latin America, 2013-2023
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay-TV, Latin America, 2013-2023
  • Figure 27: Total Fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Argentina (ARS billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Argentina (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Argentina, 2013-2023
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Argentina (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Argentina, 2013-2023
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Argentina (ARS per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Argentina (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Argentina (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue, - current and previous forecasts, Argentina, 2013-2023
  • Figure 36: Total Fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Brazil (BRL billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Brazil (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Brazil, 2013-2023
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections b type, Brazil (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 40: 4g, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Brazil, 2013-2023
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Brazil (BRL per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Brazil (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Brazil (million),
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts.
  • Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Chile (CLP trillion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Chile (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Chile, 2013-2023
  • Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Chile (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 49: 4g, 5G and contact share of mobile connections, Chile, 2013-2023
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Chile (CLP thousand per month), ARPU,
  • Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Chile (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Chile (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Chile, 2013-2023
  • Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Colombia, 2013-2023
  • Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Columbia (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Colombia, 2013-2023
  • Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Colombia (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 58: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Colombia, 2013-2023
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Colombia (COP thousand per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Colombia (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Colombia (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Colombia, 2013-2023
  • Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Mexico (MXN billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Mexico (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Mexico, 2013-2023
  • Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Mexico (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Mexico, 2013-2023
  • Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Mexico (MXN per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Mexico (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Mexico (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Mexico, 2013-2023
  • Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Peru (PEN billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 73: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Peru (PEN per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Peru, 2013-2023
  • Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Peru (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 76: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Peru, 2013-2023
  • Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Peru (PEN per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Peru (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Peru (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Peru, 2013-2023
  • Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the Key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the Key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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