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市場調査レポート

中東・北アフリカの通信市場の動向と予測

Middle East and North Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 256870
出版日 ページ情報 英文 44 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=111.89円で換算しております。
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中東・北アフリカの通信市場の動向と予測 Middle East and North Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023
出版日: 2018年07月27日 ページ情報: 英文 44 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、中東・北アフリカの通信サービス市場について調査し、同地域および主要12ヶ国におけるモバイル/固定KPIの5ヵ年予測、各モバイル・固定サービスの動向、促進因子および予測の前提条件の詳細分析、各国のオペレーター戦略の概要、およびモバイル・固定オペレーターへの主な提言などをまとめています。

調査内容

  • 180以上の主要モバイル・有線KPIの5カ年予測:主要12カ国
  • 市場動向・成長推進因子・予測影響因子の分析
  • オペレーター各社の戦略概要・国別トピックス
  • まとめ・提言など

調査対象国

  • アルジェリア
  • エジプト
  • イラン
  • イラク
  • イスラエル
  • クウェート
  • モロッコ
  • オマーン
  • カタール
  • サウジアラビア
  • チュニジア
  • アラブ首長国連邦

調査対象KPIの例

  • 接続数
    • モバイル
      • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・IoT
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 2G・3G・4G・5G
      • スマートフォン・非スマートフォン
    • 有線
      • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイアルアップ
      • ナローバンド音声・VoBB
      • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・5G・その他
  • 収益
    • モバイル
      • サービス・リテール
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・IoT
      • 端末音声・メッセージング・データ
    • 有線
      • サービス・リテール
      • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイアルアップ・BNS
      • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・その他
  • 音声トラフィック
    • 有線 & モバイル
      • 発信時間・MoU
  • ARPU
    • モバイル
      • SIM・端末
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 端末音声・データ
目次

"Telecoms market revenue in the Middle East and North Africa will grow at a CAGR of 1.1% between 2018 and 2023 to reach USD69.0 billion."

We anticipate that there will be moderate growth of telecoms services revenue in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Demand will be tempered by market saturation, challenging socioeconomic conditions and fierce competition. This report provides a full update of our 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for MENA as a whole and for 12 key countries.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the MENA region as a whole and 12 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Countries modelled individually

  • Algeria
  • Egypt
  • Iran
  • Iraq
  • Israel
  • Kuwait
  • Morocco
  • Oman
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Tunisia
  • United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Table of Contents

  • 9.Executive summary
  • 10.Telecoms market revenue in MENA will grow to USD69.0 billion in 2023, amidst market saturation, increased competition and challenging operating conditions
  • 11.Telecoms retail revenue will increase by USD3.6 billion between 2018 and 2023, primarily driven by revenue growth in mobile data and fixed broadband services
  • 12.Geographical coverage: we model 12 telecoms markets, which will account for 91.2% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2023
  • 13.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 14.Key recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 15.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 16.Market context: the 12 countries modelled accounted for 82.7% of the total population and 92.8% of the telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2017
  • 17.Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
  • 18.Key drivers at a glance for each market in the Middle East and North Africa
  • 19.Market overview: mobile services will drive revenue growth in the region, but fixed broadband and business services will see the strongest revenue growth up to 2023
  • 20.Mobile: LTE take-up is accelerating in several markets and mobile 5G will launch in 2019; this is contributing to traffic growth, but is also slowing down the ARPU drop
  • 21.Mobile: market maturity, enforced SIM registration policies and economic slowdown have led to a contraction of the subscriber base in some countries
  • 22.Mobile: growth in the demand for data services combined with the migration to postpaid plans, 4G and 5G will help to reduce the rate of decline of ARPU
  • 23.Mobile: data revenue will help to offset the slowdown in revenue growth for legacy services
  • 24.Fixed: broadband market penetration will grow in most countries, driven by consumer and enterprise demand and new infrastructure investments
  • 25.Fixed: broadband penetration of households will grow in all modelled countries, supported by competition and national broadband plans
  • 26.Fixed: speed upgrades and the improved access and affordability of fibre services will help to ensure that the broadband average revenue per line remains high
  • 27.Fixed: the broadband market will grow steadily, while voice revenue will decline due to decreasing usage and increased competition from mobile
  • 28.Business services: operator revenue from large enterprises will rise as the demand for data connectivity, IoT and other business services grows
  • 29.IoT: the IoT market will generate just over USD6.2 billion in revenue in 2023 supported by strong growth in the number of M2M connections
  • 30.Pay TV: the number of IPTV subscribers will increase; paid-for OTT-to-the-TV penetration will only be significant in certain countries
  • 31.Individual country forecasts
  • 32.Egypt: the telecoms sector has promising prospects supported by the launch of 4G and the planned investment in fixed-line infrastructure
  • 33.Egypt: demand for data services will help to boost the number of 4G and fixed broadband connections in the market over the forecast period
  • 34.Egypt: a new mobile entrant has shaken up the market, and the number of fixed broadband connections looks to grow despite the lack of competition
  • 35.Egypt: we predict that there will be a more positive outlook for fixed broadband revenue and 4G penetration in the market
  • 36.Kuwait: recent market recovery and investments in fixed infrastructure should provide a basis for future revenue growth
  • 37.Kuwait: a strong demand for 4G services will help to maintain a high mobile ARPU against a backdrop of limited growth in user numbers
  • 38.Kuwait: mobile revenue growth will be limited by market saturation, but the fixed market is poised for revenue growth thanks to investment
  • 39.Kuwait: we have adjusted the forecast for fixed and mobile broadband connections as a result of newly available market data
  • 40.Oman: there will be steady revenue growth despite the challenging market conditions with a third mobile entrant and regulatory pressures
  • 41.Oman: the entrance of a third mobile player is expected in 2H 2018; this will support subscriber base growth but erode market value
  • 42.Oman: uncertainty over the identity of the third entrant continues, while the outlook for fixed broadband remains positive
  • 43.Oman: we have revised our mobile market growth and fibre penetration outlook
  • 44.Qatar: economic isolation will negatively affect the market growth, but preparations for the 2022 FIFA World Cup should add some momentum
  • 45.Qatar: the market appears to withstand diplomatic and economic sanctions and we expect to see moderate revenue growth going forward
  • 46.Qatar: the market will struggle to maintain growth despite the apparent resilience of Qatar's economy so far
  • 47.Qatar: our revised forecast reflects the mobile market contraction and the strong erosion of mobile broadband ARPU in 2017
  • 48.Saudi Arabia: the mobile market will recover in the medium term thanks to an improving economy and strong demand for data services
  • 49.Saudi Arabia: the demand for data will compensate for falling revenue from voice services while investments in 5G and fibre will spur future growth
  • 50.Saudi Arabia: economic reforms, the award of new spectrum and investment in fixed infrastructure should help the market's slow recovery
  • 51.Saudi Arabia: adjustments have been made to the mobile broadband and 5G penetration, but the market outlook is largely the same as before
  • 52.UAE: we expect a positive overall outlook for revenue growth, despite increased market competition and slow economic and population growth
  • 53.UAE: consumer and enterprise demand for digital services and the improvement of the economy will offer opportunities for growth
  • 54.UAE: investment in infrastructure and capabilities will help operators to capture opportunities beyond broadband connectivity
  • 55.UAE: we have revised our forecast for mobile market growth down and have increased the adoption fixed-wireless and mobile 5G penetration
  • 56.Methodology
  • 57.Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 58.Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 59.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 60.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 61.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 62.About the author
  • 63.AboutAnalysysMason
  • 64.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 65.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2017-2023
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and next-generation access (NGA) share of fixed broadband connections by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2017 and 2023
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for the Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the 12 countries modelled individually in the Middle East and North Africa, 2017
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in the Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers for the current situation (2017) and the future trajectory (2018-2023), by country, Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Middle East and North Africa (USD per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Middle East and North Africa (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Middle East and North Africa (GB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Middle East and North Africa, 2014-2023
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay-TV, Middle East and North Africa, 2014-2023
  • Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Egypt (EGP billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Egypt (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Egypt, 2013-2023
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Egypt (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 31: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Egypt, 2013-2023
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Egypt (EGP per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Egypt (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Egypt (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Egypt, 2013-2023
  • Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Kuwait (KWD million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Kuwait (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Kuwait, 2013-2023
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Kuwait (thousand), 2013-2023
  • Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Kuwait, 2013-2023
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Kuwait (KWD per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Kuwait (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Kuwait (thousand), 2013-2023
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Kuwait, 2013-2023
  • Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Oman (OMR million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Oman (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Oman, 2013-2023
  • Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Oman (thousand), 2013-2023
  • Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Oman, 2013-2023
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Oman (OMR per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Oman (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Oman (thousand), 2013-2023
  • Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Oman, 2013-2023
  • Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Qatar (QAR billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Qatar (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Qatar, 2013-2023
  • Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Qatar (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Qatar, 2013-2023
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Qatar (QAR per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Qatar (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Qatar (thousand), 2013-2023
  • Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Qatar, 2013-2023
  • Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Saudi Arabia (SAR billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Saudi Arabia (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2013-2023
  • Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Saudi Arabia (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Saudi Arabia, 2013-2023
  • Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Saudi Arabia (SAR per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Saudi Arabia (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Saudi Arabia (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Saudi Arabia, 2013-2023
  • Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, UAE (AED billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, UAE (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, UAE, 2013-2023
  • Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, UAE (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, UAE, 2013-2023
  • Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, UAE (AED per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, UAE (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, UAE (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, UAE, 2013-2023
  • Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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