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市場調査レポート

中東・北アフリカの通信市場の動向と予測

Middle East and North Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 256870
出版日 ページ情報 英文 44 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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中東・北アフリカの通信市場の動向と予測 Middle East and North Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024
出版日: 2019年07月17日 ページ情報: 英文 44 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、中東・北アフリカの通信サービス市場について調査し、同地域および主要12ヶ国におけるモバイル/固定KPIの5ヵ年予測、各モバイル・固定サービスの動向、促進因子および予測の前提条件の詳細分析、各国のオペレーター戦略の概要、およびモバイル・固定オペレーターへの主な提言などをまとめています。

調査内容

  • 180以上の主要モバイル・有線KPIの5カ年予測:主要12カ国
  • 市場動向・成長推進因子・予測影響因子の分析
  • オペレーター各社の戦略概要・国別トピックス
  • まとめ・提言など

調査対象国

  • アルジェリア
  • エジプト
  • イラン
  • イラク
  • イスラエル
  • クウェート
  • モロッコ
  • オマーン
  • カタール
  • サウジアラビア
  • チュニジア
  • アラブ首長国連邦

調査対象KPIの例

  • 接続数
    • モバイル
      • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・IoT
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 2G・3G・4G・5G
      • スマートフォン・非スマートフォン
    • 有線
      • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイアルアップ
      • ナローバンド音声・VoBB
      • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・5G・その他
  • 収益
    • モバイル
      • サービス・リテール
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 端末・モバイルブロードバンド・IoT
      • 端末音声・メッセージング・データ
    • 有線
      • サービス・リテール
      • 音声・ブロードバンド・IPTV・ダイアルアップ・BNS
      • DSL・FTTH/B・ケーブル・BFWA・その他
  • 音声トラフィック
    • 有線 & モバイル
      • 発信時間・MoU
  • ARPU
    • モバイル
      • SIM・端末
      • プリペイド・契約ベース
      • 端末音声・データ
目次

"Fixed broadband revenue in MENA will increase at a CAGR of 4.6% during the forecast period, driven by the fast adoption of NGA-based services and limited competition in the fixed segment."

The telecoms market revenue in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will increase at a CAGR of 1.4% between 2018 and 2024, driven by the growing adoption of fixed broadband and mobile data services across the region.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the MENA region as a whole and 12 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Countries modelled individually

  • Algeria
  • Egypt
  • Iran
  • Iraq
  • Israel
  • Kuwait
  • Morocco
  • Oman
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Tunisia
  • United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary and recommendations
  • 9. Telecoms service revenue in the Middle East and North Africa will reach USD72billion by 2024
  • 10. Monetising high-speed internet and mobile data access will be crucial to achieve telecoms retail revenue growth in MENA
  • 11. Geographical coverage: NGA and 4G/5G penetration will be the highest in GCC countries and in Israel
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13. Key recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15. Market context: the average spend per capita has declined, mainly due to increased competition in the GCC region
  • 16. Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
  • 17. Key drivers at a glance for each country in the Middle East and North Africa
  • 18. Market overview: the fast adoption of fixed broadband and mobile data services will help telecoms operators to maintain service revenue growth
  • 19. Mobile: mobile services will account for most of the telecoms revenue in the region, driven by the growing demand for data and the fast migration from 3G to 4G
  • 20. Mobile: population service penetration will remain flat because most of the mature markets have reached saturation point
  • 21. Mobile: ARPU levels will be highly dependent on GDP per capita, competition levels and the penetration of data services
  • 22. Mobile: the total mobile revenue will continue to increase due to the demand for data and the introduction of faster networks such as LTE and 5G
  • 23. Fixed: the increase in household broadband penetration will be boosted by NGA network roll-outs and a growing demand for fixed data connectivity
  • 24. Fixed: broadband penetration will increase in all countries in MENA, but the gap between the most and least penetrated countries will widen
  • 25. Fixed: increasing competitiveness will lead to a decline in ASPU, but the demand for higher-speed services and bundling will lead to fixed broadband revenue growth
  • 26. Fixed: broadband penetration will continue to increase across the region and VDSL will become the predominant access technology by 2024
  • 27. Specialist business services: revenue growth will be fuelled by increased spending on mobile data and a growing demand for high-bandwidth dedicated connections
  • 28. IoT: the total IoT value chain revenue in MENA will grow to over USD6.7billion by 2024
  • 29. Pay TV: revenue for traditional pay TV and operator-delivered OTT services will continue to grow in MENA
  • 30. Individual country forecasts
  • 31. Egypt: there are strong revenue growth prospects in both the fixed and mobile markets due to growing demand and infrastructure investments
  • 32. Egypt: VDSL will be the dominant fixed broadband technology in 2024, supported by the growing demand for high-speed connectivity services
  • 33. Egypt: the increase in fixed broadband revenue will be the main contributor to telecoms revenue growth during the forecast period
  • 34. Egypt: forecast changes
  • 35. Kuwait: investments in fixed infrastructure should provide a basis for future growth in fixed broadband take-up and revenue
  • 36. Kuwait: fibre optics will become the dominant fixed broadband technology in Kuwait by 2024
  • 37. Kuwait: fixed market revenue growth will be driven by the expanding fibre-optic network footprint and encouraging service take-up
  • 38. Kuwait: forecast changes
  • 39. Oman: the total market revenue will increase thanks to the growth of the fixed broadband segment and the slow recovery of the mobile market
  • 40. Oman: operators will increasingly focus on monetising their NGA investments and driving service take-up as network penetration increases
  • 41. Oman: a new mobile entrant will increase competition in the mobile market, and the fixed broadband segment will benefit from NGA network roll-outs
  • 42. Oman: forecast changes
  • 43. Qatar: the overall revenue outlook remains positive, driven by fixed broadband and mobile handset data revenue growth
  • 44. Qatar: operators in the country aim to lead in 5G coverage in the region and will focus on the quality of service for data users
  • 45. Qatar: the demand for high-speed connectivity will drive both fixed broadband and mobile data revenue growth
  • 46. Qatar: forecast changes
  • 47. Saudi Arabia: telecoms revenue will grow due to improving economic indicators and the forthcoming launch of 5G services
  • 48. Saudi Arabia: the growing demand for data, stimulated by the increasing popularity of OTT services, will offset the decline in legacy mobile revenue
  • 49. Saudi Arabia: mobile service revenue will be boosted by the launch of 5G technology and the adoption of service-based tariffs
  • 50. Saudi Arabia: forecast changes
  • 51. UAE: telecoms revenue will increase to AED36.3 billion by 2024, driven mainly by the demand for high-speed broadband connections
  • 52. UAE: good access to fibre services and the recent launch of 5G will help operators to grow their fixed and mobile revenue in the next 5 years
  • 53. UAE: fixed broadband and mobile data revenue will drive telecoms revenue growth
  • 54. UAE: forecast changes
  • 55. Methodology
  • 56. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 57. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 58. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology (1)
  • 59. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology (2)
  • 60. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 61. About the authors
  • 62. About the authors
  • 63. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 64. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 65. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue, by type, and total service revenue, Middle East and North Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2018--2024
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2018 and 2024
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for the Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the 12 countries modelled individually in the Middle East and North Africa, 2018
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in the Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019--2024), by country, Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Middle East and North Africa (USD per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Middle East and North Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Middle East and North Africa (MB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Middle East and North Africa (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, Middle East and North Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Middle East and North Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Middle East and North Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Egypt (EGP billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Egypt (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Egypt, 2014--2024
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Egypt (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Egypt, 2014--2024
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Egypt (EGP per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Egypt (MB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Egypt (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Egypt, 2014--2024
  • Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Kuwait (KWD million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Kuwait (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Kuwait, 2014--2024
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Kuwait (thousand), 2014--2024
  • Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Kuwait, 2014--2024
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Kuwait (KWD per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Kuwait (MB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Kuwait (thousand), 2014--2024
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Kuwait, 2014--2024
  • Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Oman (OMR million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Oman (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Oman, 2014--2024
  • Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Oman (thousand), 2014--2024
  • Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Oman, 2014--2024
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Oman (OMR per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Oman (MB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Oman (thousand), 2014--2024
  • Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Oman, 2014--2024
  • Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Qatar (QAR billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Qatar (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Qatar, 2014--2024
  • Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Qatar (thousand), 2014--2024
  • Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Qatar, 2014--2024
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Qatar (QAR per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Qatar (MB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Qatar (thousand), 2014--2024
  • Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Qatar, 2014--2024
  • Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Saudi Arabia (SAR billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Saudi Arabia (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2014--2024
  • Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Saudi Arabia (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Saudi Arabia, 2014--2024
  • Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Saudi Arabia (SAR per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Saudi Arabia (MB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Saudi Arabia (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Saudi Arabia, 2014--2024
  • Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, UAE (AED billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, UAE (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, UAE, 2014--2024
  • Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, UAE (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, UAE, 2014--2024
  • Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, UAE (AED per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, UAE (MB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, UAE (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, UAE, 2014--2024
  • Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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