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中東・北アフリカの通信市場:動向・予測

Middle East and North Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022 based on 2Q 2017 data

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 256870
出版日 ページ情報 英文 44 Slides
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中東・北アフリカの通信市場:動向・予測 Middle East and North Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022 based on 2Q 2017 data
出版日: 2018年01月31日 ページ情報: 英文 44 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、中東・北アフリカの通信サービス市場について調査し、同地域および主要12ヶ国における100以上のモバイル/固定KPIの5ヵ年予測、各モバイル・固定サービスの動向、促進因子および予測の前提条件の詳細分析、各国のオペレーター戦略の概要、およびモバイル・固定オペレーターへの主な提言などをまとめています。

調査対象

  • 地域
    • 中東・北アフリカ
    • アルジェリア
    • エジプト
    • イラン
    • イラク
    • イスラエル
    • クウェート
    • モロッコ
    • オマーン
    • カタール
    • サウジアラビア
    • チュニジア
    • UAE

KPI

  • 接続
  • モバイル
    • 端末、モバイルブロードバンド、M2M
    • プリペイド、契約
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
    • スマートフォン、非スマートフォン
  • 固定
    • 音声、ブロードバンド、IPTV、ダイヤルアップ
    • ナローバンド音声、VoBB
    • DSL、FTTH/B、ケーブル、BFWA、その他
  • 固定・モバイル音声トラフィック
    • 発信時間、MoU
  • 収益
  • モバイル
    • サービス、小売り
    • プリペイド、契約
    • 端末、モバイルブロードバンド、M2M
    • 端末音声、メッセージング、データ
  • 固定
    • サービス、小売り
    • 音声、ブロードバンド、IPTV、ダイヤルアップ、BNS
    • DSL、FTTH/B、ケーブル、BFWA、その他
  • モバイルARPU
    • SIM、端末
    • プリペイド、契約
    • 端末音声、データ

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

地域予測・各国の比較

  • 対象地域
  • 市場背景
  • 収益・ARPU
  • モバイル普及率
  • モバイル接続
  • スマートフォン・4G/5G
  • モバイルARPU
  • 固定サービス
  • 固定ブロードバンド
  • 主な促進因子:中東・北アフリカ市場

各国の予測

  • アルジェリア
  • エジプト
  • イラン
  • イラク
  • クウェート
  • モロッコ
  • オマーン
  • カタール
  • サウジアラビア
  • チュニジア
  • UAE

著者・Analysys Mason について

図表リスト

目次

"The telecoms service market in the Middle East and North Africa will grow at a CAGR of 0.7% between 2017 and 2022 to reach USD72.1 billion."

We forecast that 67.1% of total telecoms service revenue in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) will come from mobile services in 2022. There is room for further subscriber growth in developing markets, while in more-mature markets, operators should focus on value growth and investing in the digital economy.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the MENA region as a whole and 12 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Countries modelled individually

  • Algeria
  • Egypt
  • Iran
  • Iraq
  • Israel
  • Kuwait
  • Morocco
  • Oman
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Tunisia
  • United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband,1 IoT2
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service,3 retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband,1 IoT2
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service,3 retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

1Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data.

2IoT connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.

3Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Karim Yaici (Senior Analyst) leads Analysys Mason's The Middle East and Africa regional research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include operators' digital strategies, new telecoms opportunities and challenges, and consumer trends in growth markets. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Karim was an associate analyst at Ovum, where he authored reports on mobile accessories and mobile applications. Prior to that, he worked as a research engineer in the Institute for Communication Systems and Vodafone. Karim holds an MSc in Information Systems Management from the University of Southampton and a PhD in human-4computer interaction from the University of Surrey.

Table of Contents

  • 9.Executive summary
  • 10.The telecoms service market in MENA will grow to USD72.1 billion in 2022, amidst increased competition and challenging operating conditions
  • 11.Telecoms retail revenue will increase by USD2.6 billion during 2017-2022, primarily driven by mobile data and fixed broadband services
  • 12.Geographical coverage: We model 12 telecoms markets, which will account for 91.2% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2022
  • 13.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets in the Middle East and North Africa
  • 14.Key recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 15.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 16.Market context: The 12 modelled countries account for 83.3% of total population and 92.0% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2017
  • 17.Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries
  • 18.Key drivers at a glance for each Middle East and North Africa market
  • 19.MENA: Mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth in the region, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate
  • 20.MENA mobile: LTE take-up is accelerating in several markets; this is contributing to traffic growth, but also slowing down ARPU drop
  • 21.MENA mobile: Maturing markets and enforced SIM registration policies have led to a contraction of the subscriber base in some countries
  • 22.MENA mobile: Growth in demand for data services and migration to postpaid connections will help to reduce the rate of decline of ARPU
  • 23.MENA mobile: Data revenue will help offset the slowdown in revenue growth for legacy services
  • 24.MENA fixed: Broadband market penetration will grow in most countries driven by demand and new infrastructure investments
  • 25.MENA fixed: Broadband penetration will grow in all modelled countries, supported by competition and national broadband plans
  • 26.MENA fixed: Speed upgrades and increased penetration of fibre services will help to ensure that broadband average revenue per line remains high
  • 27.MENA fixed: The broadband market will grow steadily, while voice revenue will decline due to declining usage and mobile competition
  • 28.Business services: Operator revenue from large enterprises will rise as demand grows for data connectivity, IoT and other business services
  • 29.IoT: The IoT market will generate just over USD7.0 billion in revenue in 2022 supported by strong growth in M2M connections
  • 30.Pay TV: The number of IPTV subscribers will increase; paid-for OTT-to-the-TV penetration will only be significant in certain countries
  • 31.Individual country forecasts
  • 32.Iran: The market has potential for further growth despite a volatile political situation and the persistence of economic sanctions
  • 33.Iran: 4G adoption is expected to accelerate, while investment in fibre and TD-LTE will help improve service quality and coverage
  • 34.Iran: 4G services, and MVNO entry combined with investment in fixed broadband infrastructure, will underpin future growth
  • 35.Iran: We project a more-positive outlook for business services revenue, fixed broadband and mobile penetration growth
  • 36.Kuwait: The market heavily contracted in 2017 due to mobile market saturation and lack of development of the fixed segment
  • 37.Kuwait: Strong demand for 4G services will help to maintain a high mobile ARPU over the forecast period
  • 38.Kuwait: Mobile market growth will be hampered by market saturation; the fixed market needs liberalisation and investment
  • 39.Kuwait: A more conservative outlook for the mobile market due to its severe contraction in 2017
  • 40.Oman: Revenue will grow strongly despite increasingly challenging market conditions and regulatory pressures
  • 41.Oman: The entry of a third entrant in 2017 has been delayed by a few months, resulting in a revision of mobile connections growth
  • 42.Oman: Uncertainty over the identity of the third entrant continues, while the outlook for fixed broadband remains positive
  • 43.Oman: We have revised our business services revenue and mobile market growth outlook
  • 44.Qatar: Economic diversification and infrastructure projects should drive demand for telecoms services in the long term
  • 45.Qatar: The market appears to withstand diplomatic and economic sanctions with a largely positive outlook for continued growth
  • 46.Qatar: The market still has potential for growth, provided that the regional political situation does not deteriorate further
  • 47.Qatar: We have revised our mobile broadband outlook and incorporated Ooredoo Qatar's ‘other' revenue
  • 48.Saudi Arabia: Data from fixed and mobile will help to offset the continued contraction of the mobile subscriber base
  • 49.Saudi Arabia: Demand for data services will drive growth of 4G and fixed broadband services; fixed voice services remain strong
  • 50.Saudi Arabia: The market will be driven by data and supported by ambitious economic reforms to increase broadband penetration
  • 51.Saudi Arabia: Our revised forecast is based on the mobile market contraction in 2017 and stronger performance for fixed voice
  • 52.UAE: We expect a positive overall outlook for revenue growth, despite increased market competition in fixed and mobile markets
  • 53.UAE: There will be steady growth, driven by a healthy economy and operators' investment in infrastructure and digital initiatives
  • 54.UAE: Investment in infrastructure and capabilities will help operators capture opportunities beyond broadband connectivity
  • 55.UAE: We have changed the approach used to model the fixed market and revised the forecast for fixed voice based on recent data
  • 56.Methodology
  • 57.Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 58.Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 59.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 60.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 61.About the authors and Analysys Mason About the author
  • 62.About the authors
  • 63.Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 64.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 65.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP growth by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2016-2022
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and next-generation access (NGA) share of fixed broadband connections by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2016 and 2022
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the 12 countries modelled individually in Middle East and North Africa, 2016
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in the Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017-2022), by country, Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), -2022
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), -2022
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Middle East and North Africa (USD per month), -2022
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Middle East and North Africa (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-
  • Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-
  • Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Middle East and North Africa (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Middle East and North Africa, 2012-2022
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2022
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay-TV, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-
  • Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Iran (IRR trillion), -2022
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Iran (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Iran, 2012-
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Iran (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 31: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Iran, 2012-2022
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Iran (IRR thousand per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Iran (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Iran (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Iran, 2012-2022
  • Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Kuwait (KWD million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Kuwait (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Kuwait, 2012-2022
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Kuwait (thousand), 2012-2022
  • Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Kuwait, 2012-2022
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Kuwait (KWD per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Kuwait (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Kuwait (thousand), 2012-2022
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Kuwait, 2012-2022
  • Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Oman (OMR million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Oman (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Oman, 2012-2022
  • Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Oman (thousand), 2012-2022
  • Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Kuwait, 2012-2022
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Oman (OMR per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Oman (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Oman (thousand), 2012-2022
  • Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Oman, 2012-2022
  • Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Qatar (QAR billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Qatar (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Qatar, 2012-2022
  • Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Qatar (thousand), 2012-2022
  • Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Qatar, 2012-2022
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Qatar (QAR per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Qatar (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Qatar (thousand), 2012-2022
  • Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Qatar, 2012-2022
  • Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Saudi Arabia (SAR billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Saudi Arabia (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Saudi Arabia (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Saudi Arabia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Saudi Arabia (SAR per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Saudi Arabia (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Saudi Arabia (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, Saudi Arabia, 2012-2022
  • Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, UAE (AED billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, UAE (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, UAE, 2012-2022
  • Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, UAE (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, UAE, 2012-2022
  • Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, UAE (AED per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, UAE (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, UAE (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue -current and previous forecasts, UAE, 2012-2022
  • Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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