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北米の通信市場:2017年〜2022年の動向と予測

North America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022 based on 3Q 2017 data

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 254747
出版日 ページ情報 英文 25 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=111.09円で換算しております。
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北米の通信市場:2017年〜2022年の動向と予測 North America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022 based on 3Q 2017 data
出版日: 2018年01月05日 ページ情報: 英文 25 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、北米の通信市場について調査分析し、5ヶ年予測のほか、動向、促進要因、予測の前提条件、オペレーター戦略の概要、国別のトピックなど、体系的な情報を提供しています。

目次

  • エグゼクティブサマリー
  • 北米の通信収益は、米国のモバイル市場の減少により、停滞
  • カナダは、混乱させるオペレーターがいないので、急成長
  • 地理的範囲:地域の収益全体の90%を米国が占める
  • 北米のモバイル/固定市場の主要動向、促進要因、前提条件
  • 通信オペレーターへの主な提言
  • 地域の予測と国全体の比較
  • 市場の背景:両国の経済は安定成長
  • 主なM&A、市場参入
  • 北米の各市場の主要促進要因
  • 市場概要:米国のモバイル市場の減少が、全体の収益成長を阻む
  • モバイル:ユーザーベースは地域全体で拡大、プリペイド/ポストペイドともに
  • モバイル:競争が米国のARPUを引き下げる
  • モバイル:北米は先頭に立って新技術を採用
  • 固定:ブロードバンド普及率は、飽和状態により、緩やかに
  • 固定:ブロードバンド価格の上昇により、減速の兆候はほとんど見られない
  • 固定:地域の市場構造と高速化により、ブロードバンドのASPU成長は継続
  • ビジネスサービス:通信オペレーターは、エンタープライズソフトウェア市場のほんの一部を占めるだけ
  • IoT:自動車部門は、IoT収益の最大の貢献者
  • 国別の予測
  • カナダ:固定/モバイル市場のユーザーベース・ARPU成長により、通信収益は成長
  • カナダ:モバイル接続の圧倒的多数は4Gに
  • カナダ:混乱させるオペレーターがいないので、収益成長は継続
  • カナダ:予測の変更
  • 米国:モバイル市場の減少と固定市場の成長により、通信の総収益がわずかに減少
  • 米国:革新的な周波数利用規制により、MNOはレガシー技術を中断し、4Gと5Gへ
  • 米国:T-Mobileは、引き続きモバイル市場の競争を促進
  • 米国:予測の変更
  • 予測手法
  • 著者とAnalysys Masonについて
目次

"Telecoms revenue in North America will stagnate during the forecast period at around USD400 billion annually due to a decline in the US mobile market."

We expect fixed operators across Canada and the USA to continue upselling faster broadband connections at higher prices, as well as taking advantage of uncompetitive markets. The Canadian mobile market will continue to grow due to the absence of a challenger operator, but service revenue in the USA will decline as T-Mobile maintains its aggressive strategy.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for North America (NA) and for the two countries in the region
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for the two countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between the two countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE:

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • North America (NA)

Countries modelled individually

  • Canada
  • USA

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

Table of Contents

  • 7. Executive summary
  • 8. Telecoms revenue in North America will be stagnant due to a declining US mobile market
  • 9. The lack of a disrupting operator will support faster growth in Canada
  • 10. Geographical coverage: The USA accounts for 90% of the regional revenue total
  • 11. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets in North America
  • 12. Key recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 13. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 14. Market context: Both countries' economies are expected to grow at a steady rate
  • 15. Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries
  • 16. Key drivers at a glance for each North America market
  • 17. Market overview: A declining US mobile market will prevent total revenue growth
  • 18. Mobile: User base will grow across the region, both in prepaid and postpaid segments
  • 19. Mobile: Competition will drive down ARPU in the USA, but not in Canada
  • 20. Mobile: North America will be at the forefront of new technology adoption
  • 21. Fixed: Broadband penetration will grow slowly due to saturation
  • 22. Fixed: Broadband price growth shows few signs of slowing down
  • 23. Fixed: Regional monopolistic/duopolistic market structure and upselling to faster speeds will continue to support broadband ASPU growth
  • 24. Business services: Telecoms operators will only capture a small proportion of the enterprise software market
  • 25. IoT: The automotive segment will be the largest single contributor to IoT revenue
  • 26. Individual country forecasts
  • 27. Canada: Telecoms revenue will grow thanks to user base and ARPU growth in both fixed and mobile markets
  • 28. Canada: The overwhelming majority of mobile connections will be on 4G b 2018
  • 29. Canada: A lack of disruptive operators will support continued revenue growth
  • 30. Canada: Forecast changes
  • 31. USA: A declining mobile market and a growing fixed market will combine for a slight decline in total telecoms revenue
  • 32. USA: Lenient spectrum usage regulation will allow MNOs to shut down legacy technology and focus on 4G and 5G instead
  • 33. USA: T-Mobile will continue to drive competition in the mobile market
  • 34. USA: Forecast changes
  • 35. Methodology
  • 36. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 37. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 38. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 39. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 40. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 41. About the author
  • 42. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 43. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 44. Consulting from Analysy Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1. Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2. Telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP growth by country, North America, 2016-2022
  • Figure 3. 4G/5G share of mobile connections and next-generation access share of fixed broadband connections by country, North America, 2016-2022
  • Figure 4. Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for North America
  • Figure 5. Metrics for the two countries modelled individually in North America, 2016
  • Figure 6. Recent and upcoming market structure changes in North America
  • Figure 7. Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017-2022), by country, North America
  • Figure 8. Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, North America (USD billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 9. Mobile connections by type, North America (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 10. Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 11. Fixed connections by type, North America (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 12. Mobile connections by generation, North America (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 13. Mobile ARPI by type, North America (USD per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 14. Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 15. Mobile data traffic per connection, North America (MB month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 16. Mobile penetration by country, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 17. Mobile ARPI by country, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 18. Broadband connections by technology, North America (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 19. Fixed retail revenue by service, North America (USD billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 20. NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 21. Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, North America (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 22. Fixed broadband household penetration by country, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 23. Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 24. Total market revenue from business services, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 25. Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, North America, 2013-2022
  • Figure 26. Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Canada (CAD billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 27. Mobile connections by type, Canada (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 28. Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Canada, 2012-2022
  • Figure 29. Fixed connections by type, Canada (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 30. 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Canada, 2012-2022
  • Figure 31. Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Canada (CAD per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 32. Mobile data traffic per connection, Canada (MB per moth), 2012-2022
  • Figure 33. Broadband d connections by technology, Canada (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 34. Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Canada, 2012-2022
  • Figure 35. Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, USA (USD billion), 2012-2022
  • Figure 36. Mobile connections by type, USA (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 37. Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, USA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 38. Fixed connections by type, USA (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 39. 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, USA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 40. Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, USA (USD per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 41. Mobile data traffic per connection, USA (MB per month), 2012-2022
  • Figure 42. Broadband connections by technology, USA (million), 2012-2022
  • Figure 43. Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, USA 2012-2022
  • Figure 44 a. Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 44 b. Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (Current and future) ad impact of high scores
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