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北米の通信市場:動向と予測 2016 - 2021年

North America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2016-2021

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 254747
出版日 ページ情報 英文 40 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=115.27円で換算しております。
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北米の通信市場:動向と予測 2016 - 2021年 North America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2016-2021
出版日: 2016年10月21日 ページ情報: 英文 40 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、北米の通信市場について調査分析し、北米全体および主要2ヶ国における170以上に及ぶモバイル・固定KPIの5ヵ年予測を提供しており、モバイル・固定サービスの各タイプならびに主要諸国における動向、促進因子および予測前提条件の詳細分析、オペレーター戦略の概要、およびモバイル・固定オペレーターへの主な影響や提言などについて、まとめています。

目次

  • エグゼクティブサマリー
  • モバイル・固定市場の主な動向、促進因子および前提条件
  • 通信オペレーターへの影響・提言
  • 地域別の予測・各国の比較
  • 地域カバレッジ:米国は地域の収益の90%以上を構成
  • 市場背景:資源採集部門への高い依存度および不利な為替レートの動きがカナダ経済に影響
  • 収益・ARPU:データ支出の増加が収益成長を促進
  • モバイル普及率:人口の増加、低価格およびコネクテッドデバイスの売上増加が米国におけるモバイル普及を促進する見込み
  • モバイル接続:ローエンドの接続でさえも4Gとなる見込み
  • スマートフォン・LTE:スマートフォンは、ほぼ偏在することになる見込み
  • モバイルブロードバンド:地域におけるモバイルブロードバンド接続のほとんどがLTE型となる見込み
  • モバイルARPU:カナダにおけるサービス収益の拡大、しかし競争とデバイス助成金の廃止は米国で収益を低下させる見込み
  • データ・収益、世代別:ほぼ全てのモバイル収益が4Gからもたらされる見込み
  • 固定サービス:ケーブルは引き続きブロードバンド市場を独占するものの、FTTPは安定した成長を示す見込み
  • 固定ブロードバンド:さらにユーザー基盤の伸びが縮小する可能性があるため、収益成長は価格上昇からもたらされる見込み
  • 各北米市場の主な促進因子
  • 主な促進因子:調査手法
  • 各国の予測
  • カナダ:音声収益が減少し、固定ブロードバンドのユーザー基盤が飽和するため、小売り収益は2018年にピークを迎える見込み
  • 米国:固定ブロードバンドは主要な収益成長源となる見込み
  • 著者・Analysys Mason について、ほか

図表リスト

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目次

"Growth in fixed broadband prices will mitigate the competition-induced decline in mobile revenue."

The fixed broadband market will be the major source of revenue growth in North America, as lack of competition and growing coverage of high-speed (up to gigabit) FTTH and cable networks allows operators to charge more for more-advanced services. However, mobile service revenue will decline due to growing competition in the USA, brought on by the competitive pricing and promotional strategies of T-Mobile.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 170 mobile and fixed KPIs for North America, as a whole and 2 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Coverage

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators
  • Regions modelled
    • North America
  • Countries modelled individually
    • Canada
    • USA
Connections
  • Mobile
    • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
    • Prepaid, contract
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
    • Smartphone, non-smartphone
  • Fixed
    • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
    • Narrowband voice, VoBB
    • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other
  • Fixed and mobile voice traffic
    • Outgoing minutes, MoU
Revenue
  • Mobile
    • Service, retail
    • Prepaid, contract
    • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
    • Handset voice, messaging, data
  • Fixed
    • Service, retail
    • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
    • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other
  • Mobile ARPU
    • SIMs, handset
    • Prepaid, contract
    • Handset voice, data

Table of Contents

  • 7. Executive summary
  • 8. Telecoms retail revenue in North America will grow marginally between 2015 and 2021
  • 9. Spending on both fixed and mobile data will drive revenue growth
  • 10. Regional trends follow the USA, but revenue in Canada will grow more strongly
  • 11. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 12. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 13. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 14. Geographical coverage: The USA contributes over 90% of the region's revenue
  • 15. Market context: Higher dependency on the resource extraction sector and unfavorable exchange rate movements affect Canada's economy
  • 16. Revenue and ARPU: Increasing data spending will drive revenue growth
  • 17. Mobile penetration: A growing population, lower prices and increasing sales of connected devices will drive up mobile penetration in the USA
  • 18. Mobile connections: Even low-end connections will be 4G by 2021
  • 19. Smartphones and LTE: Smartphones will be near-universal by 2021
  • 20. Mobile broadband: Almost all mobile broadband connections in the region will be LTE-based by 2018
  • 21. Mobile ARPU: Service revenue in Canada is growing, but competition and the elimination of device subsidies is driving it down in the USA
  • 22. Data and revenue by generation: Nearly all mobile revenue will come from 4G by 2019
  • 23. Fixed services: Cable will continue to dominate the broadband market, but FTTP will grow strongly
  • 24. Fixed broadband: Revenue growth will have to come from price increases as the potential for further user base growth diminishes
  • 25. Key drivers at a glance for each North America market
  • 26. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 27. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 28. Individual country forecasts
  • 29. Canada: Retail revenue will peak in 2018, due to declining voice revenues and a saturated fixed broadband user base
  • 30. Canada - mobile: Growing take-up of more expensive services and lack of price competition will drive revenue growth
  • 31. Canada - fixed: Gigabit access rollout and limited regional competition will support broadband revenue growth
  • 32. USA: Fixed broadband will be the main source of revenue growth
  • 33. USA - mobile: Competition and the decoupling of service and device contracts is driving down service revenue
  • 34. USA - fixed: Consolidation will have a limited effect on consumers, due to regionalised operator footprints
  • 35. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 36. About the author
  • 37. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 38. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 39. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), North America, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, North America, 2015-2021
  • Figure 3: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2015-2021), by country, North America
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for North America
  • Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, North America, 2021
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the two countries modelled individually in North America, 2015
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, North America, 2011-2021
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, North America, 2015-2021
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, North America, 2015-2021
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), North America, 2011-2021
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G/5G's share of connections, North America, 2011-2021
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), North America, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, North America, 2011-2021
  • Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by country, North America, 2011-2021
  • Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, North America, 2011-2021
  • Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, North America, 2011-2021
  • Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, North America, 2011-2021
  • Figure 18: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, North America, 2011-2021
  • Figure 19: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2015) and future trajectory (2016-2021), by country, North America
  • Figure 20: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue and growth rates, Canada, 2015-2021
  • Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Canada, 2015-2021
  • Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, Canada, 2015-2021
  • Figure 24: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Canada, 2011-2021
  • Figure 25: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Canada, 2011-2021
  • Figure 26: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Canada
  • Figure 27: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Canada, 2011-2021
  • Figure 28: Fixed ASPU by service type, Canada, 2011-2021
  • Figure 29: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Canada
  • Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), USA, 2011-2021
  • Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, USA, 2015-2021
  • Figure 32: Connections by type, and growth rates, USA, 2015*2021
  • Figure 33: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, USA, 2011-2021
  • Figure 34: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, USA, 2011-2021
  • Figure 35: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, USA
  • Figure 36: Fixed penetration rates by service type, USA, 2011-2021
  • Figure 37: Fixed ASPU by service type, USA, 2011-2021
  • Figure 38: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, USA
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