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北米の通信市場:動向と予測 2017 - 2022年

North America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 254747
出版日 ページ情報 英文 38 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=112.55円で換算しております。
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北米の通信市場:動向と予測 2017 - 2022年 North America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
出版日: 2017年09月15日 ページ情報: 英文 38 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、北米の通信市場について調査分析し、北米全体および主要2ヶ国における180以上に及ぶモバイル・固定KPIの5ヵ年予測を提供しており、モバイル・固定サービスの各タイプならびに主要諸国における動向、促進因子および予測前提条件の詳細分析、オペレーター戦略の概要、およびモバイル・固定オペレーターへの主な影響や提言などについて、まとめています。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

地域別の予測・各国の比較

  • 地域カバレッジ:技術が進んだ地域において、米国は通信収益全体の91%を構成
  • 市場背景:経済展望は両国において比較的明るい
  • 収益・ARPU:モバイル市場の下落は固定ブロードバンドの成長に相殺されると予測され、総収益は
  • 停滞
  • モバイル普及率:ユーザー基盤の成長は市場の成熟により鈍化
  • モバイル接続:地域全体でネットワークのシャットダウンが予測される - レガシー利用例のため、2Gは3Gよりも長く続く
  • スマートフォン・LTE:北米においてスマートフォンは一般的に
  • モバイルARPU:挑戦者となるオペレーターの欠如はカナダにおける大幅なARPUの下落を防ぐ
  • データ・収益、世代別:米国のオペレーターはネット中立規制の遺棄に向け準備を進める
  • 固定サービス:北米においてNGAへの移行は続き、また固定ワイヤレス5Gが動き始める
  • 固定ブロードバンド:北米において普及率は飽和に知数いているが、競合・アップセルの欠如が収益減少を防ぐ
  • 各北米市場の主な促進因子
  • 主な促進因子:調査手法

死角各国の予測 ▼カナダ:モバイル市場の成長は引き続き緩やかだが、将来的には飽和により減速 ▼カナダ - モバイル:挑戦者となるオペレーターの欠如は収益減少を防ぐが、成長は鈍化 ▼カナダ - 固定:速度アップグレードのアップセル成功は収益成長が続くことを意味する ▼米国:モバイル市場の下落は固定ブロードバンド主駅の成長によってほぼ相殺される ▼米国 - モバイル:T-Mobileのイニシアチブに主導された競争は引き続きARPUを減少させる ▼米国 - 固定:NGAへの投資および競争の欠如が引き続きブロードバンドASPUを促進 ▼著者・Analysys Mason について

図表リスト

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目次

"Revenue in the North American telecoms market will stop growing due to a decline in the US mobile market."

Telecoms revenue in North America (NA) will be stable between 2017 and 2022. Competition in the US mobile market and the lack of competition in the US fixed market will combine to create a flat revenue trend throughout the forecast period. The Canadian telecoms market will grow overall, but due to its relative size, will not make up for the decline in US mobile revenue. This report examines key trends and drivers and provides telecoms market forecasts for the North American region and the two individual countries.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for NA and for the two countries in the region
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for the two countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlights similarities and differences between the two countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE:

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • North America (NA)

Countries modelled individually

  • Canada
  • USA

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Roman Orvisky (Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European Core Forecasts, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Forecasts programmes. Prior to joining Analysys Mason in November 2014, he worked in the Transaction Services department of the Royal Bank of Scotland in a customer experience internship role. During his studies, Roman focused on consumer behaviour in an online context, and has experience in churn modelling in the telecoms sector, social network analysis and browsing data analysis. Roman holds a Bachelor's degree in business from Durham University, and an MSc in marketing research from the Tilburg University School of Economics and Management.

Table of Contents

  • 6. Executive summary
  • 7. Contrasting trends in fixed and mobile markets in North America combine for a stagnant revenue forecast
  • 8. Lack of competition in fixed broadband will continue to drive up prices in North America
  • 9. Revenue in the North American telecoms market will stop growing due to a decline in the US mobile market
  • 10. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets in North America
  • 11. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 12. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 13. Geographical coverage: In a technologically advanced region, the USA accounts for 91% of total telecoms revenue
  • 14. Market context: The economic outlook is relatively positive for both countries
  • 15. Revenue and ARPU: Total revenue will be stagnant as a declining mobile market will be compensated for by growth in fixed broadband
  • 16. Mobile penetration: User base growth will be slow due to market maturity
  • 17. Mobile connections: We expect network shutdown across the region - 2G will last longer than 3G because of legacy use cases
  • 18. Smartphones and LTE: Smartphones have been almost universally adopted in North America
  • 19. Mobile ARPU: The lack of a challenger operator will prevent significant ARPU decline in Canada
  • 20. Data and revenue by generation: US operators are gearing up for the abandonment of net neutrality regulations
  • 21. Fixed services: Migration to NGA will continue in North America, and fixed-wireless 5G will come into play
  • 22. Fixed broadband: Penetration is approaching saturation in North America, but lack of competition and upselling will prevent revenue decline
  • 23. Key drivers at a glance for each of the North American markets
  • 24. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 25. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 26. Individual country forecasts
  • 27. Canada: Mobile market growth continues unabated, but will slow down in the future due to saturation
  • 28. Canada -mobile: The lack of a challenger mobile operator will prevent revenue decline, but growth will slow down
  • 29. Canada -fixed: Successful upselling of speed upgrades means continued revenue growth
  • 30. USA: A declining mobile market will be mostly offset by growth in fixed broadband revenue
  • 31. USA -mobile: Competition driven by T-Mobile's initiatives will continue to drive down ARPU
  • 32. USA -fixed: NGA investments and lack of competition will continue to drive up broadband ASPU
  • 33. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 34. About the authors
  • 35. About Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, North America, 2016-
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, North America, -2022
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for North America
  • Figure 5: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, North America, 2022
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the 2 countries modelled individually in North America,
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, North America, 2016-2022
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, North America, 2016-2022
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G's share of connections, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding M2M), North America, 2016 and 2022
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 14: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 15: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 16: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 17: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, North America, 2012-2022
  • Figure 18: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2016) and future trajectory (2017-2022), by country, North America
  • Figure 19a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 19b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 20: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Canada, 2012-2022
  • Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Canada, 2016-2022
  • Figure 22: Connections by type, and growth rates, Canada, 2016-2022
  • Figure 23: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Canada, 2012-2022
  • Figure 24: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Canada, 2012-2022
  • Figure 25: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Canada
  • Figure 26: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Canada, 2012-2022
  • Figure 27: Fixed ASPU by service type, Canada, 2012-2022
  • Figure 28: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Canada
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), USA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, USA, 2016-2022
  • Figure 31: Connections by type, and growth rates, USA, 2016-2022
  • Figure 32: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, USA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 33: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, USA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 34: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, USA
  • Figure 35: Fixed penetration rates by service type, USA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 36: Fixed ASPU by service type, USA, 2012-2022
  • Figure 37: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, USA
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