表紙
市場調査レポート

北米の通信市場:動向と予測 2015-2020年

North America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 254747
出版日 ページ情報 英文 34 Slides
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=105.42円で換算しております。
Back to Top
北米の通信市場:動向と予測 2015-2020年 North America Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
出版日: 2015年09月15日 ページ情報: 英文 34 Slides
概要

2014年は、米国のオペレーターが長い成長期の後、サービスARPUの下落を記録したため、北米のモバイル市場における大きなターニングポイントとなりました。競争の激化およびオペレーターによるデバイス補助金の中止が下落の一因となりました。2015年から2020年における最大の収益機会は固定ブロードバンド、モバイルデバイス、およびM2M市場にあると見込まれています。

当レポートでは、米国およびカナダの通信市場について調査分析し、北米全体および各国の通信小売収益の推移と予測、固定・モバイル、市場セグメントおよびサービスタイプ別の内訳などをまとめ、概略下記の構成でお届けいたします。

エグゼクティブサマリー

地域別の予測・各国の比較

  • 地域カバレッジ:カナダ・米国の通信市場を合わせると、米国が北米の収益の90%以上を構成
  • 市場背景:人口がカナダよりも著しく大きいため、地域の動向は米国の発展に影響される
  • 収益・ARPU:小売り収益は、BYODのモデルプランとの競争が激化するため、2015年にピークとなる見込み
  • モバイル普及率:アクティブSIM浸透率 (M2M除く) はゆっくりとしたペースで成長を続け、2020年に101%へ達する見込み
  • モバイル接続:2014年に4Gは地域における優勢技術となり、2020年までに全接続の92%を構成
  • スマートフォン・LTE:スマートフォンは、高い可処分所得および低価格プランに促進され2020年にNA (北米) における全端末の99%を構成する見込み
  • モバイルARPU:長い成長期間の後、地域におけるモバイルARPUは2014年に下落し、この傾向は2020年まで続く見込み
  • 固定サービス:ファイバーへの大きな投資はDSLの低下を生むが、ケーブルは優勢技術に留まる見込み
  • 固定ブロードバンド:両市場とも成熟しているため、世帯普及率はゆっくりとしたペースで増加を続ける
  • 各北米市場の主要な促進因子の概要

各国の予測

  • カナダ:小売り収益はデータサービスの成長が音声収益の減少を相殺しないため2016年にピークとなる
  • カナダ:モバイル - スマートフォン普及率の増加および更なる4G展開が引き続きデータ利用を促進
  • カナダ:固定 - ファイバーカバレッジの大幅な改善が成熟市場におけるブロードバンド収益の成長を促進
  • 米国:モバイルサービス収益は2015年に減少し始めるが、固定ブロードバンドの成長は小売り収益を下支えし続ける
  • 米国:モバイル - モバイルサービス収益はBYODサービスがますます普及するために減少する見込み
  • 米国:固定 - ファイバー接続の安定した成長および競争の欠如が2017年までブロードバンドASPUの成長を促進

著者・Analysys Mason について

図表リスト

このページに掲載されている内容は最新版と異なる場合があります。詳細はお問い合わせください。

目次

"Competition in the mobile market will intensify as revenue opportunities from further customer enrichment dry up and operators eliminate device subsidies."

2014 marked a significant turning point in the North American mobile market as US operators recorded a decline in service ARPU after a long period of growth. Intensifying competition contributed to the decline, as well as operators eliminating device subsidies, stripping out the device payment portion that they previously attributed to service revenue.

Usage of OTT services remains relatively low because unlimited calls and messaging bundles are common, but we expect OTT usage to accelerate as a result of high smartphone penetration. North America is also lacking in quadruple-play offers, because operators often prefer to market their mobile and fixed services separately.

The largest revenue opportunities during 2015-2020 will lie in fixed broadband (consolidation and lack of options for users mean that prices remain high), mobile devices (elimination of handset subsidies disentangles devices from service contracts, allowing full revenue realisation and shorter handset replacement cycles), and the M2M market (predominantly connected cars).

This report and accompanying data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 100 mobile and fixed key performance indicators (KPIs) for the North America (NA) region as a whole and for Canada and the USA
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and well-documented forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for Canada and the USA
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageMajor KPIs 

Regions modelled

  • North America

Connections
Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA

Revenue
Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA

 

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary
  • 6. Telecoms service revenue in North America will peak in 2015, and then begin to decline slowly - a pattern that will continue through 2020
  • 7. Handset data and fixed broadband revenue will grow, but a decline in voice service revenue will offset this
  • 8. Fixed retail revenue will grow in the USA, but decline in Canada, while mobile retail revenue will increase in Canada and fall in the USA
  • 9. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 10. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 11. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 12. Geographical coverage: We model telecoms markets in both countries in the region, and the USA accounts for more than 90% of NA's revenue
  • 13. Market context: Regional trends will be influenced by developments in the USA because the population is significantly larger than in Canada
  • 14. Revenue and ARPU: Retail revenue will peak in 2015 as competition from bring-your-own device mobile plans intensifies
  • 15. Mobile penetration: Active SIM penetration (excluding M2M) will continue to grow at a slow pace, reaching 101% in 2020
  • 16. Mobile connections: 4G became the dominant technology in the region in 2014, and will account for 92% of all connections by 2020
  • 17. Smartphones and LTE: Smartphones will account for 99% of all handsets in NA in 2020, driven by high disposable income and low-cost plans
  • 18. Mobile ARPU: After a long period of growth, mobile ARPU in the region declined in 2014 - a trend that will continue through 2020
  • 19. Fixed services: Significant investment in fibre will generate a decline in DSL, but cable will remain the dominant technology
  • 20. Fixed broadband: Household penetration will continue to increase at a slow pace because both markets are well-saturated
  • 21. Key drivers at a glance for each North America market
  • 22. Individual country forecasts
  • 23. Canada: Retail revenue will peak in 2016 because growth in data services will not compensate for declining voice revenue
  • 24. Canada - mobile: An increase in smartphone penetration and further 4G roll-out will continue to drive up data usage
  • 25. Canada - fixed: Significant improvements in fibre coverage will drive broadband revenue growth in a saturated market
  • 26. USA: Mobile service revenue will start to decline in 2015, but growth in fixed broadband will continue to prop up retail revenue
  • 27. USA - mobile: Mobile service revenue will decline as bring-your-own-device (BYOD) plans become increasingly prevalent
  • 28. USA - fixed: Strong growth in fibre connections and a lack of competition will drive broadband ASPU growth until 2017
  • 29. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 30. About the authors
  • 31. About Analysys Mason
  • 32. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 33. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), North America, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, North America, 2014-2020
  • Figure 3: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by country, North America
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for North America
  • Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, North America, 2020
  • Figure 6: Metrics for the two countries modelled individually in North America, 2014
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, North America, 2010-2020
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, North America, 2014-2020
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, North America, 2014-2020
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), North America, 2010-2020
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, North America, 2010-2020
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), North America, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, North America, 2010-2020
  • Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, North America, 2010-2020
  • Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, North America, 2010-2020
  • Figure 16: Major forecast drivers and impact, by country, North America, 2015-2020
  • Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Canada, 2010-2020
  • Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Canada, 2014-2020
  • Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, Canada, 2014-2020
  • Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Canada, 2010-2020
  • Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Canada, 2010-20201
  • Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Canada
  • Figure 23: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Canada, 2010-2020
  • Figure 24: Fixed ASPU by service type, Canada, 2010-2020
  • Figure 25: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Canada
  • Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), USA, 2010-2020
  • Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, USA, 2014-2020
  • Figure 28: Connections by type, and growth rates, USA, 2014-2020
  • Figure 29: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, USA, 2010-2020
  • Figure 30: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, USA, 2010-20201
  • Figure 31: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, USA
  • Figure 32: Fixed penetration rates by service type, USA, 2010-2020
  • Figure 33: Fixed ASPU by service type, USA, 2010-2020
  • Figure 34: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, USA
Back to Top