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先進経済圏におけるFTTxの展開とCAPEX:予測(2012-2017年)

FTTx roll-out and capex in developed economies: forecasts 2012-2017

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 235794
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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先進経済圏におけるFTTxの展開とCAPEX:予測(2012-2017年) FTTx roll-out and capex in developed economies: forecasts 2012-2017
出版日: 2012年03月31日 ページ情報: 英文

当商品の販売は、2013年11月13日を持ちまして終了しました。

概要

当レポートでは、世界の主要地域におけるFTTxの展開状況について調査分析し、現在の需給動向、地域/国別のFTTxの導入・展開予測(〜2017年)、地域/国別のFTTx CAPEX予測(〜2017年)、欧州の主要事業者のケーススタディ、事業環境の分析などをまとめ、概略下記の構成でお届けいたします。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリー

概要

予測

  • 予測の注記
  • 地域の定義
  • 予測に関する基礎的注記
  • 西欧:2011年末
  • 西欧:2017年予測
  • 中欧・東欧:2011年末
  • 中欧・東欧:2017年予測
  • 北米・アジア太平洋先進国:2011年末
  • 北米・アジア太平洋先進国:2017年予測
  • 西欧:最高レベルのCAPEX

事業環境・ネットワークオプション

  • ケーブルネットワークオペレーター:1Gbps超まで高速化が可能
  • DOCSIS 3.0のアップグレード:光ファイバーをエンドユーザーに近づけること
  • 高速ケーブルオプションの導入と通信事業者による超高速サービスのアベイラビリティ
  • 4G・NGA固定アクセス
  • 固定ネットワークへの超高速性の導入が間に合わなければ、固定ブロードバンドにとってLTE-Advancedが大きな脅威に
  • VDSL-CO
  • FTTC/VDSL
  • FTTB/VDSL
  • DSLの加速と100Mbps超えのカッパーアクセス
  • FTTH:GPON・PTP、など

欧州の大手事業者による展開・導入

  • 欧州の事業者のターゲット:競合環境により異なる
  • カッパーコストの調整との関係
  • 2017年までに大手事業者は3分の2のカバレージを超える見通し
  • サービス開始から5-6年後には25-30%の導入率に達する見通し

欧州大手事業者のケーススタディ

  • A1 Telekom Austria
  • Telekom Deutschland
  • Telecom Italia
  • France Telecom (Orange)
  • BT

CAPEXモデルのアップデート

  • FTTx技術の関連コスト:トップレベルの内訳
  • ベースラインの前提: FTTH/GPONはFTTC/VDSLの4倍のコスト、など

著者およびAnalysys Masonについて

目次

Abstract

Demand for FTTx has gradually picked up in 2011, and we expect continued improvement.

2012 looks like it will be a year when operators will start to roll out accelerated DSL technologies in significant volumes. This has the potential to slow the build-out of FTTH, but there are some early signs that take-up of next-generation fixed access is increasing, which may encourage operators to be bolder.

This Report outlines current supply and demand trends, key operator developments, the latest cost assumptions and a market outlook, based on a fully reviewed update of our previous FTTx forecasts. It includes case studies on five European incumbents: A1 Telekom Austria, Telekom Deutschland, Telecom Italia, France Telecom (Orange) and BT.

The Excel data annex provides:

  • actual 2009 - 2011 data and five-year forecasts of:
    • FTTB/H and VDSL connections
    • FTTB/H and VDSL premises passed
    • DOCSIS3.0 premises passed
    • penetration rates of total premises and premises passed
    • capital expenditure on FTTB/H and VDSL.
  • data for 30 countries and 4 regions (Central and Eastern Europe, Developed Asia - Pacific, North America and Western Europe).

Table of Contents

  • 6.Executive summary
  • 7.Executive summary [1]
  • 8.Executive summary [2]
  • 9.Executive summary [3]
  • 10.Key implications
  • 11.Key implications [1]
  • 12.Key implications [2]
  • 13.Forecasts
  • 14.Notes on the forecasts
  • 15.Definition of geographical regions
  • 16.Basic comments on forecasts
  • 17.Western Europe: end of 2011
  • 18.Western Europe: forecast for 2017
  • 19.Central and Eastern Europe: end of 2011
  • 20.Central and Eastern Europe: forecast for 2017
  • 21.North America and Developed Asia - Pacific: end of 2011
  • 22.North America and Developed Asia - Pacific: forecast for 2017
  • 23.The highest levels of capex will be in Western Europe
  • 24.Business environment and network options
  • 25.Cable network operators can raise speeds to over 1Gbps, if there is a commercial case
  • 26.Upgrading for DOCSIS 3.0 in practice means bringing fibre closer to the end user
  • 27.Take-up of higher-speed cable options is related to the availability of superfast services from telcos
  • 28.4G and NGA fixed access
  • 29.LTE-Advanced will pose a serious threat to fixed broadband, if superfast speeds on fixed networks are not rolled out quickly enough
  • 30.VDSL-CO
  • 31.FTTC/VDSL
  • 32.FTTB/VDSL
  • 33.Accelerated DSL can take copper access to above 100Mbps
  • 34.FTTH: GPON and PTP
  • 35.VULA will displace LLUB and bitstream, and PIA will facilitate roll-out
  • 36.Arguments for and against gradualist and interventionist approaches are balanced
  • 37.Arguments against gradualism
  • 38.Arguments against interventionism
  • 39.European incumbent roll-out and take-up
  • 40.European operators' targets vary according to the competitive landscape
  • 41.Their ambition appears not to be strongly correlated to the regulated cost of copper
  • 42.By 2017, most incumbents will have surpassed two-thirds coverage
  • 43.We expect take-up rates in general to be around 25 - 30% for telcos five to six years after launch
  • 44.European incumbent case studies
  • 45.1. A1 Telekom Austria [1]
  • 46.1. A1 Telekom Austria [2]
  • 47.2. Telekom Deutschland [1]
  • 48.2. Telekom Deutschland [2]
  • 49.2. Telekom Deutschland [3]
  • 50.3. Telecom Italia [1]
  • 51.3. Telecom Italia [2]
  • 52.3. Telecom Italia [3]
  • 53.4. France Telecom (Orange) [1]
  • 54.4. France Telecom (Orange) [2]
  • 55.4. France Telecom (Orange) [3]
  • 56.5. BT [1]
  • 57.5. BT [2]
  • 58.5. BT [3]
  • 59.Update on capex model
  • 60.Top-level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx technologies [1]
  • 61.Top-level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx technologies [2]
  • 62.Top-level breakdown of the relative costs of FTTx technologies [3]
  • 63.Our baseline assumption is that FTTH/GPON costs four times more to pass and connect than FTTC/VDSL
  • 64.Several factors will combine to erode like-for-like capital costs by about 10% per year
  • 65.The model considers the increasing incremental costs of roll-out to less-favourable demographics and topographies
  • 66.However, we recognise that roll-out decisions are increasingly based on other factors as well as cost
  • 67.The model also takes into account the cost variances between countries
  • 68.About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 69.About the author
  • 70.About Analysys Mason
  • 71.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 72.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: FTTx roll-out and take-up by region, developed markets, 2011
  • Figure 2: FTTx capex by region, developed markets, to 2011
  • Figure 3: Total FTTx capex by region, developed markets, to 2017
  • Figure 4: FTTH roll-out and take-up by region, developed markets, 2017
  • Figure 5: FTTx roll-out and take-up by region, developed markets, 2017
  • Figure 6: Regional breakdown used in this report
  • Figure 7: FTTH roll-out and take-up by region, developed markets, 2017
  • Figure 8: FTTx roll-out and take-up by region, developed markets, 2017
  • Figure 9: FTTH roll-out and take-up by country, Western Europe, 2011
  • Figure 10: FTTx roll-out and take-up by country, Western Europe, 2011
  • Figure 11: FTTx capex by country to 2017, Western Europe
  • Figure 12: FTTH roll-out and take-up by country, Western Europe, 2017
  • Figure 13: FTTx roll-out and take-up by country, Western Europe, 2017
  • Figure 14: FTTH roll-out and take-up by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011
  • Figure 15: FTTx roll-out and take-up by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011
  • Figure 16: FTTx capex by country to 2017, Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 17: FTTH roll-out and take-up by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2017
  • Figure 18: FTTx roll-out and take-up by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2017
  • Figure 19: FTTH roll-out and take-up by country, North America and Developed Asia - Pacific, 2011
  • Figure 20: FTTx roll-out and take-up by country, North America and Developed Asia - Pacific, 2011
  • Figure 21: FTTx capex by country to 2017, North America and Developed Asia - Pacific
  • Figure 22: FTTH roll-out and take-up by country, North America and Developed Asia - Pacific, 2017
  • Figure 23: FTTx roll-out and take-up by country, North America and Developed Asia - Pacific, 2017
  • Figure 24: Total FTTx capex by region, developed markets, to 2017
  • Figure 25: FTTx capex by region, developed markets, 2010 - 2017
  • Figure 26: DOCSIS 3.0 coverage as percentage of total homes, 2011 and 2017
  • Figure 27: Options for fibre upgrades to HFC networks
  • Figure 28: Virgin Media's superfast services, penetration of premises passed, 1Q 2010 - 4Q 2011
  • Figure 29: French cable superfast services, penetration of premises passed, 1Q 2010 - 4Q 2011
  • Figure 30: Timeline for roll-out of fixed and mobile broadband technologies
  • Figure 31: Realistic (cell average, in case of mobile) throughputs, LTE upgrades and xDSL technologies
  • Figure 32: European incumbents using VDSL-CO as their main NGA technology, March 2012
  • Figure 33: European incumbents using FTTC/VDSL as their main NGA technology, March 2012
  • Figure 34: European incumbents using FTTB/VDSL as main NGA technology, March 2012
  • Figure 35: Known incumbent trials of vectoring and bonding, Europe, March 2012
  • Figure 36: Typical bandwidth improvements from vectoring and bonding by distance
  • Figure 37: European incumbents using GPON and PTP as their main NGA technology, March 2012
  • Figure 38: The gradualist and interventionist approaches
  • Figure 39: Incumbent roll-out targets, as of December 2011
  • Figure 40: Estimated planned FTTH coverage at 2015 and current LLUB charges
  • Figure 41: Incumbents' roll-out forecasts, 2017, by technology
  • Figure 42: NGA subscriber penetration of premises passed after launch, selected operators
  • Figure 43: NGA coverage and take-up, A1 Telekom Austria, 2009 - 2017
  • Figure 44: NGA coverage and take-up, Austria, 2009 - 2017
  • Figure 45: NGA coverage and take-up, Telekom Deutschland, 2009 - 2017
  • Figure 46: NGA coverage and take-up, Germany, 2009 - 2017
  • Figure 47: NGA coverage and take-up, Telecom Italia, 2009 - 2017
  • Figure 48: NGA coverage and take-up, Italy, 2009 - 2017
  • Figure 49: NGA coverage and take-up, Orange, 2009 - 2017
  • Figure 50: NGA coverage and take-up, France, 2009 - 2017
  • Figure 51: NGA coverage and take-up, BT, 2009 - 2017
  • Figure 52: NGA coverage and take-up, UK, 2009 - 2017
  • Figure 53: Basic overview of NGA network topologies and elements
  • Figure 54: Typical capital cost assumptions, FTTC/VDSL and FTTB/VDSL
  • Figure 55: Typical capital cost assumptions, FTTH/GPON and FTTH/PTP
  • Figure 56: Baseline assumptions on cost per premises passed and connected
  • Figure 57: Cost erosion per home passed and per connection, VDSL and FTTH, 2009 - 2017
  • Figure 58: Cost to pass a home with FTTH, by decile of housing density, 2009 - 2017
  • Figure 59: Example of roll-out modelling from core capex model
  • Figure 60: Relative capital costs for FTTx by country
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