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市場調査レポート

中東および北アフリカの通信市場予測:中間予測アップデート

The Middle East and North Africa Telecoms Market: 2014 Interim Forecast Update (2013-2018)

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 234175
出版日 ページ情報 英文 PPT and PDF (40 slides); Excel
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中東および北アフリカの通信市場予測:中間予測アップデート The Middle East and North Africa Telecoms Market: 2014 Interim Forecast Update (2013-2018)
出版日: 2014年03月24日 ページ情報: 英文 PPT and PDF (40 slides); Excel
概要

端末データサービスおよびモバイルブロードバンドは今後5年間の収益成長に強い機会を提供しており、メッセージングおよび音声収益の減少を相殺するのに役立つ見込みです。中東のモバイル電気通信市場は、特にスマートフォンとモバイルブロードバンドの利用増加において、引き続き成長の兆候を示しています。固定市場の成長は、GCC諸国における光ファイバーの普及率が強いために抑制されますが、北アフリカでは予測期間を通してDSLが引き続きアクセス技術のなかで支配的となるでしょう。

当レポートでは、中東および北アフリカの通信市場について調査し、地域全体および国別の市場分析を提供しており、モバイル・固定サービス別の接続数・収益の実績・予測などをまとめ、概略下記の構成でお届けいたします。

主な調査内容

  • 中東・北アフリカ(MENA)全体およびアルジェリア、エジプト、イスラエル、クウェート、モロッコ、カタール、サウジアラビアおよびUAEの通信市場における最新の発展動向の分析とそれらの接続・収益に対する影響分析
  • 旧版からの予測変化の経緯と理由の説明
  • 詳細な実績データと予測、以下を含む:
    • モバイル接続数:デバイスタイプ別(スマートフォン、その他の端末、モバイルブロードバンドおよびM2M)、ペイメントタイプ別(プリペイド・契約)、および技術世代別
    • 固定ブロードバンド接続数:タイプ別(ケーブル、DSL、FTTHおよびその他)
    • IPTV接続数・収益

対象地域

  • アルジェリア
  • エジプト
  • イスラエル
  • クウェート
  • モロッコ
  • カタール
  • サウジアラビア
  • UAE

対象データ

  • モバイルサービス
    • 市場セグメント:プリペイド・契約、ビジネスおよび住宅
    • 技術世代:2G・3G・4G
    • サービスタイプ:端末音声、端末メッセージング、端末コンテンツ・データ、モバイルブロードバンドおよびM2M
  • 固定サービス
    • 市場セグメント:ビジネスおよび住宅
    • サービスタイプ:音声 (PSTN/ISDN、VoBB)、ブロードバンド(DSL、ケーブルモデム、住宅用FTTBおよびその他のブロードバンド技術) 、ビジネスネットワークサービス、IPTV

目次

  • エグゼクティブサマリー
  • 地域別の概要
  • 国別の分析
  • 著者・Analysys Masonについて

図表リスト

このページに掲載されている内容は最新版と異なる場合があります。詳細はお問い合わせください。

目次

Handset data services and mobile broadband offer the strongest opportunities for revenue growth in the next 5 years, driven by faster adoption of smartphones across the region than anticipated.Handset data services and mobile broadband offer the strongest opportunities for revenue growth in the next 5 years, driven by faster adoption of smartphones across the region than anticipated.

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The mobile telecoms market in the Middle East continues to show signs of growth, driven by the increased use of smartphones, mobile handset data and mobile broadband. The fixed market will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace than mobile. GCC countries will lead the region in terms of fibre roll-out, adoption, and service innovation, while DSL will remain the dominant access technology in North Africa.


This report and associated data annex provide:

  • an analysis of the latest developments in the telecoms market and assessment of their impact on connections and revenue in Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Kuwait*, Morocco, Qatar*, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as the Middle East and North Africa region as a whole
  • an explanation of how and why our forecasts have changed since the previous edition, which was published in June 2013
  • detailed historical data and forecasts (for the region as a whole and for individual countries) from 2009 to 2018, including:
    • mobile connections by device type (smartphones, other handsets, mobile broadband and M2M), by payment type (prepaid and contract), and by technology generation
    • fixed broadband connections by type (cable, DSL, FTTH and other)
    • IPTV connections and revenue
  • retail and wholesale revenue split by various mobile services (voice, messaging, handset data, mobile broadband and M2M) and various fixed services (voice, broadband, business network services).

*New core countries added to the MENA forecast for the first time.

Geographical coverage

Data is provided for the MENA region as a whole and the following individual countries:

  • Algeria
  • Egypt
  • Israel
  • Kuwait
  • Morocco
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • UAE.

Data coverage

The data annex includes forecasts for connections as well as total and retail revenue for the fixed and mobile markets and the market overall. All revenue information is provided in the local currency unit (LCU) and US dollars.

The forecasts for connections (and sites, in the case of fixed services) and revenue are split in the following manner.

Mobile services

  • Market segment: prepaid and contract, business and residential
  • Technology generation: 2G, 3G and 4G
  • Service type: handset voice, handset messaging, handset content and data, mobile broadband and M2M
  • The three types of breakdown are performed on both retail and total services revenue, which enables us to include both ARPU and ASPU information.

Fixed services

  • Market segment: business and residential
  • Service type: voice (PSTN/ISDN and VoBB), broadband (DSL, cable modem, residential FTTB and other broadband technologies), business network services, IPTV.
  • The forecasts also include total service revenue for all fixed services, including and excluding wholesale revenue.

Table of Contents

  • 7.Executive summary
  • 8.The telecoms service market in the Middle East and North Africa will grow at a 2.9% CAGR to reach USD96 billion by 2018
  • 9.Mobile data and fixed broadband will be the services with most growth, driven by increasing smartphone penetration and Internet demand
  • 10.We have reduced our 2018 retail revenue forecasts because of a lower outlook for fixed voice, mobile broadband and business network services
  • 11.Regional forecasts and summary of revisions
  • 12.New forecast by service: telecoms service revenue will grow to USD96 billion in MENA in 2018, driven by mobile and fixed data services
  • 13.Forecast revision by service: mobile broadband revenue has been reduced to reflect the shift to smartphones for data access
  • 14.New revenue forecast by country: strong net growth in telecoms retail revenue is expected in most countries, except Egypt, Israel and Kuwait
  • 15.New forecast by country: Israel and the GCC countries will lead the MENA region in terms of smartphone and LTE penetration by 2018
  • 16.Forecast revision by country: we have reduced our CAGR forecasts for retail revenue in all modelled countries except Israel
  • 17.Key trends since our previous forecast: growth in smartphone adoption is exceeding expectations, while mobile broadband is lagging behind
  • 18.Key trends since our previous forecast: M2M growth is revised downwards, and the decline in fixed voice connections accelerates
  • 19.Key trends since our previous forecast: stronger-than-expected FTTx market growth will help offset the decline of fixed voice revenue
  • 20.Individual country forecasts
  • 21.Algeria: 3G will drive demand for mobile data services, and help maintain solid growth in the non-messaging mobile market
  • 22.Algeria: Fixed and mobile voice were more resilient than anticipated; 3G will accelerate fixed-mobile broadband substitution
  • 23.Egypt: Demand for handset data services will stimulate marginal growth, but political unrest is hampering the market
  • 24.Egypt: Political instability has caused big changes since the last forecast, and the shift to handset data usage has accelerated
  • 25.Israel: Competition and price erosion continue to hinder mobile growth, while fixed voice decline will be slower than expected
  • 26.Israel: The outlook has improved slightly since our previous forecast because of operators' efforts to slow down price erosion
  • 27.Kuwait: Mobile and fixed data services will offer greater growth opportunities, while voice and messaging revenue is set to decline
  • 28.Kuwait: Mobile data demand, supported by the recent LTE launch, will help boost revenue, while fixed broadband also shows growth
  • 29.Morocco: Voice continues to dominate the mobile market, although data services will represent a growing share of retail revenue
  • 30.Morocco: We have made changes to the outlook for LTE, handset data, mobile broadband and fixed broadband
  • 31.Qatar: High revenue CAGR for handset data will drive growth in telecoms revenue
  • 32.Qatar: Growth prospects are strong for both fixed and mobile markets, driven by ambitious plans for high-speed broadband
  • 33.Saudi Arabia: Retail revenue in MENA's largest telecoms market will grow at a 2.5% CAGR, driven by broadband and data
  • 34.Saudi Arabia: Mobile broadband and smartphone adoption exceeds expectations, while fixed broadband offsets declining voice revenue
  • 35.UAE: Retail revenue will grow at a 3.1% CAGR, led by high growth in mobile handset data, and fixed and mobile broadband
  • 36.UAE: New forecasts reflect accelerated erosion of legacy mobile services and increased adoption of smartphones and fibre
  • 37.About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 38.About the author
  • 39.About Analysys Mason
  • 40.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 41.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Middle East and North Africa, 2009-2018
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018
  • Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2013 and 2018
  • Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2009-2018
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018
  • Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018
  • Figure 8: CAGRs for telecoms retail revenue by service type, previous and new forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018
  • Figure 9: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013 and 2018
  • Figure 10: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2013 and 2018
  • Figure 11: CAGRs for telecoms retail revenue by country, previous and new forecasts, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2018
  • Figure 12a-c: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for the Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 13: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Algeria, 2009-2018
  • Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Algeria, 2013-2018
  • Figure 15: Connections by type, and growth rates, Algeria, 2013-2018
  • Figure 16: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for Algeria
  • Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Egypt, 2009-2018
  • Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Egypt, 2013-2018
  • Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, Egypt, 2013-2018
  • Figure 20: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for Egypt
  • Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Israel, 2009-2018
  • Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Israel, 2013-2018
  • Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, Israel, 2013-2018
  • Figure 24: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for Israel
  • Figure 25: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Kuwait, 2009-2018
  • Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Kuwait, 2013-2018
  • Figure 27: Connections by type, and growth rates, Kuwait, 2013-2018
  • Figure 28: Summary of major drivers for our market forecast for Kuwait
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Morocco, 2009-2018
  • Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Morocco, 2013-2018
  • Figure 31: Connections by type, and growth rates, Morocco, 2013-2018
  • Figure 32: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for Morocco
  • Figure 33: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Qatar, 2009-2018
  • Figure 34: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Qatar, 2013-2018
  • Figure 35: Connections by type, and growth rates, Qatar, 2013-2018
  • Figure 36: Summary of major drivers for our market forecast for Qatar
  • Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Saudi Arabia, 2009-2018
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Saudi Arabia, 2013-2018
  • Figure 39: Connections by type, and growth rates, Saudi Arabia, 2013-2018
  • Figure 40: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for Saudi Arabia
  • Figure 41: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, UAE, 2009-2018
  • Figure 42: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, UAE, 2013-2018
  • Figure 43: Connections by type, and growth rates, UAE, 2013-2018
  • Figure 44: Summary of major changes compared with our June 2013 forecast for the UAE
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