表紙
市場調査レポート

中東欧の通信市場の動向・予測 (2015-2020年)

Central and Eastern Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts (6 Countries) 2015-2020

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 224984
出版日 ページ情報 英文 42 Slides
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中東欧の通信市場の動向・予測 (2015-2020年) Central and Eastern Europe Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts (6 Countries) 2015-2020
出版日: 2015年09月11日 ページ情報: 英文 42 Slides
概要

当レポートでは、中欧および東欧地域の通信市場について調査し、地域全体および主要6ヶ国の100項目以上におよぶ主要業績評価指標 (KPI) の5カ年予測、モバイル・固定サービスのタイプ・国別の主要動向・市場影響因子・成長予測などの分析、主要オペレーターの戦略、固定・モバイル事業者への提言などをまとめています。

  • エグゼクティブサマリー
  • 通信の総収益:下落の見通し
  • 端末データ収益が最大の収益・モバイル音声が最大の損失を記録する見通し
  • モバイル&固定市場の主な動向・成長推進因子・前提因子
  • 通信事業者への主な影響と提言
  • 地域別の予測・国別比較
  • 対象エリア:14カ国を個別にモデリング
  • 市場背景:通信サービス収益のGDPにおけるシェア・一人あたりの平均支出額
  • 収益とARPU:通信収益は下落を続ける見通しだが、固定ブロードバンド&IPTVサービスはユーザー基盤の拡大とともに成長の見通し
  • モバイル普及率:複数のSIMの統合がモバイル普及率の停滞または下落の原因に
  • モバイル接続数:予測期間中、4Gの展開が加速する見通し
  • スマートフォンとLTE:4Gが進んでいない地域でもスマートフォン需要は拡大の見通し
  • モバイルARPU:予測期間中、多くの国で下落
  • 固定サービス:音声ユーザーのVoBBへの移行が加速し、固定ブロードバンドの成長は鈍化する見通し
  • 固定ブロードバンド:世帯普及率は増加するが遅いペースで国による差異が大きい
  • 中欧・東欧地域の主な市場成長推進因子
  • 国別予測
  • チェコ共和国:モバイル&固定音声収益の急下落から通信市場は縮小を続ける見通し
  • チェコ共和国:モバイルARPUの下落は鈍化するが競争による収益下落は続く
  • チェコ共和国:固定ブロードバンドの価格競争と音声への関心不足が収益下落を導く見通し
  • ポーランド:価格競争から通信サービスの総収益が下落の見通し
  • ポーランド:モバイル:顧客基盤が充実しても価格競争がARPU低下の圧力に
  • ポーランド:固定:顧客が高速サービスへと移行し、ブロードバンドASPUは安定的に推移の見通し・クアッドプレイの影響は限定的
  • ロシア:モバイルの価格競争からリテール収益は下落し、固定ブロードバンドの成長も鈍化
  • ロシア:モバイル:市場の統合から接続数が減少し、競争を刺激
  • ロシア:固定:FTTH/B の展開が固定ブロードバンドの成長を推進する見通し・ISPの地域的分散がブロードバンドASPUの下落に歯止め
  • トルコ:モバイル&固定ブロードバンドの接続数の大幅な増加が持続的収益成長を導く見通し
  • トルコ:モバイル:法規制がモバイルARPUの安定化に貢献・4Gの展開がさらなる収益成長を加速させる見通し
  • トルコ:固定:光ファイバーの展開と良好な経済環境が固定ブロードバンドのさらなる成長を導く見通し

著者およびAnalysys Masonについて

図表

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目次

"The threat from OTT services is having a negative impact on revenue growth. Data revenue will increase, but this will be more than offset by the decline in traditional revenue."

Telecoms service revenue peaked in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2012 - 5 years after it did so in Western Europe (WE) - before beginning to decline. This 5-year lag will be even shorter for the revenue streams - messaging and non-handset mobile broadband - that are declining because of smartphone adoption. Smartphone take-up has been rapid in CEE, accelerating the rate at which over-the-top (OTT) services have replaced SMS usage, and driving the replacement of USB modems with tethering - trends that increasingly closely mirror those in WE.

This report and the accompanying data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 100 mobile and fixed key performance indicators (KPIs) for the region as a whole and for 6 countries
  • well-documented forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators
  • an analysis of the trends, drivers and an explanation of the significant changes to our previous forecasts for the region.

Coverage

Geographical coverage

  • Region modelled
    • Central and Eastern Europe
  • Countries modelled individually
    • Czech Republic
    • Hungary
    • Poland
    • Romania
    • Russia
    • Turkey
  • Countries modelled as part of the region as a whole
    • Albania
    • Belarus
    • Bosnia
    • Bulgaria
    • Croatia
    • Estonia
    • Latvia
    • Lithuania
    • Macedonia
    • Moldova
    • Montenegro
    • Serbia
    • Slovakia
    • Slovenia
    • Ukraine

Major KPIs

  • Connections
    • Mobile
      • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
      • Prepaid, contract
      • 2G, 3G, 4G
      • Smartphone, non-smartphone
    • Fixed
      • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
      • Narrowband voice, VoBB
      • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other
  • Fixed and mobile voice traffic
    • Outgoing minutes, MoU
  • Revenue
    • Mobile
      • Service, retail
      • Prepaid, contract
      • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
      • Handset voice, messaging, data
    • Fixed
      • Service, retail
      • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
      • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other
  • Mobile ARPU
    • SIMs, handset
    • Prepaid, contract
    • Handset voice

Table of Contents

  • 7.Executive summary
  • 8.Total telecoms revenue will decline slightly in the forecast period
  • 9.Handset data revenue will show the greatest gains, and mobile voice the largest losses
  • 10.Revenue will decline in all countries except Turkey, with the mobile markets faring worse in most markets
  • 11.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 12.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 13.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 14.Geographical coverage: 14 countries modelled individually, Russia and Turkey combined account for 58% of the entire region's revenue
  • 15.Market context: Telecoms services revenue accounted for 1.9% of GDP in 2014 and average monthly retail spend per capita was low at EUR11.8
  • 16.Revenue and ARPU: Telecoms revenue will continue to decline, but fixed broadband and IPTV services will grow as their user bases increase
  • 17.Mobile penetration: Multiple-SIM consolidation will cause mobile penetration to stabilise or decline in most countries
  • 18.Mobile connections: 4G roll-out will gather pace during the forecast period
  • 19.Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone demand will continue to grow strongly, even in countries where 4G is less advanced
  • 20.Mobile ARPU: ARPU will decline steadily in most countries during the forecast period
  • 21.Fixed services: Migration of voice users to VoBB will accelerate, while fixed broadband growth will slow down
  • 22.Fixed broadband: Household penetration will continue to increase, but at a slower pace and with significant country-by-country variations
  • 23.Key drivers at a glance for each Central and Eastern Europe market
  • 24.Individual country forecasts
  • 25.Czech Republic: The telecoms market will continue to contract as mobile and fixed voice revenue decline sharply
  • 26.Czech Republic - mobile: ARPU decline will significantly slow down, however competition will continue to drive down revenue
  • 27.Czech Republic - fixed: Price competition in broadband and lack of interest in voice will drive down revenue in the fixed market
  • 28.Poland: Total telecoms service revenue will continue to decline because price competition will continue to be intense
  • 29.Poland - mobile: Price competition will put downward pressure on ARPU, despite the enrichment of the customer base
  • 30.Poland - fixed: Broadband ASPU will be stable as customers move to faster services and quadruple-play's impact will be limited
  • 31.Russia: Retail revenue will decline as mobile price competition intensifies and growth in fixed broadband slows down
  • 32.Russia - mobile: Market consolidation will drive a decline in the number of connections and stimulate competition
  • 33.Russia - fixed: FTTH/B roll-out will drive fixed broadband growth, regional fragmentation of ISPs will limit broadband ASPU decline
  • 34.Turkey: Strong expansion in the mobile and fixed broadband connections will drive continued revenue growth
  • 35.Turkey - mobile: Regulation kept mobile ARPU stable and 4G's arrival will bolster it further, fuelling revenue growth
  • 36.Turkey - fixed: Fibre development combined with an improved economic environment will drive further fixed broadband growth
  • 37.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 38.About the authors
  • 39.About Analysys Mason
  • 40.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 41.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type (2014-2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by country, Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA's share of fixed broadband connections, by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2020
  • Figure 6: Metrics for 6 of the countries modelled individually in Central and Eastern Europe, 2014
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2020
  • Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2010-2020
  • Figure 16: Major forecast drivers and impact, by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015-2020
  • Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Czech Republic, 2010-2020
  • Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Czech Republic, 2014-2020
  • Figure 19: Connections by type, and growth rates, Czech Republic, 2014-2020
  • Figure 20: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Czech Republic, 2010-2020
  • Figure 21: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Czech Republic, 2010-2020
  • Figure 22: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Czech Republic
  • Figure 23: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Czech Republic, 2010-2020
  • Figure 24: Fixed ASPU by service type, Czech Republic, 2010-2020
  • Figure 25: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Czech Republic
  • Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Poland, 2010-2020
  • Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Poland, 2014-2020
  • Figure 28: Connections by type, and growth rates, Poland, 2014-2020
  • Figure 29: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Poland, 2010-2020
  • Figure 30: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Poland, 2010-2020
  • Figure 31: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Poland
  • Figure 32: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Poland, 2010-2020
  • Figure 33: Fixed ASPU by service type, Poland, 2010-2020
  • Figure 34: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Poland
  • Figure 35: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Russia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Russia, 2014-2020
  • Figure 37: Connections by type, and growth rates, Russia, 2014-2020
  • Figure 38: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Russia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 39: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Russia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 40: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Russia
  • Figure 41: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Russia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 42: Fixed ASPU by service type, Russia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Russia
  • Figure 43: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Russia
  • Figure 45: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Turkey, 2014-2020
  • Figure 46: Connections by type, and growth rates, Turkey, 2014-2020
  • Figure 47: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Turkey, 2010-2020
  • Figure 48: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Turkey, 2010-2020
  • Figure 49: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Turkey
  • Figure 50: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Turkey, 2010-2020
  • Figure 51: Fixed ASPU by service type, Turkey, 2010-2020
  • Figure 52: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Turkey
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