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西欧の固定・モバイル音声サービス市場:市場分析・予測(2011-2016年)

Fixed and Mobile Voice Services in Western Europe: Forecasts and Analysis 2011-2016

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 218340
出版日 ページ情報 英文 PPT (39 slides); Excel
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
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西欧の固定・モバイル音声サービス市場:市場分析・予測(2011-2016年) Fixed and Mobile Voice Services in Western Europe: Forecasts and Analysis 2011-2016
出版日: 2011年09月26日 ページ情報: 英文 PPT (39 slides); Excel
概要

当レポートでは、西欧地域における固定・モバイル音声サービス市場の現状と見通しについて調査分析し、固定・モバイル音声のリテール収益、固定・モバイル音声のARPU、固定・モバイル音声の利用時間、固定・モバイルネットワークのトラフィックのなど各種データ、地域全体および主要国別の市場予測、不況による各種影響、その他の市場影響因子の分析などをまとめ、概略下記の構成でお届けいたします。

エグゼクティブサマリー

  • トラフィック成長の可能性のある市場においても、モバイル音声のARPUは停滞状態から回復できない見通し
  • モバイル音声収益も減少し、固定音声収益の急激な減少を補填できない見通し

提言

予測

  • 音声市場は引き続き停滞に苦しめられる見通し:2010年の小売総収益は3.5%減
  • 値下げを続けても、多くの国で音声利用はもう拡大しない見通し
  • モバイル音声トラフィックの成長:2年前には止められぬ勢いだったが、現在では過去のような勢いはない
  • VoBB:固定音声市場の再生を支援した
  • ほとんどのモバイル市場が飽和に近づき、顧客獲得の機会は限定的になってきた
  • ブロードバンドサービスの補助としての固定音声の認識が高まっているため、回線の置換は限定的となる見通し
  • VoBB導入の速度は地域意的な要因に左右される見通しだが、ほとんどの市場においてあまり勢いがない
  • モバイル利用の拡大レベルは、需要の価格弾力性の点から説明できる
  • モバイル利用は急激にではないが、成長を続ける見通し
  • オペレーターは利益の保護とOTT企業に対する競争力のバランスをとる必要がある
  • オペレーターは値下げ目標を定め、音声・データの相対的値を注意深く観察する必要がある
  • モバイル音声のARPUはトラフィック成長が回復しても下落を続ける見通し
  • モバイル音声のリテール収益は現在、長期的下落の過程にあり、固定音声収益の損失をもはや補填できない
  • MTRの減少:サービス収益にも深刻な影響を及ぼす見通し

市場の定義

著者およびAnalysys Masonについて

図表

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目次

“Operators need to keep pace with the changing perceived value of voice and data services, and adjust relative pricing accordingly. Serious misalignment will prompt customers to take action.” Stephen Sale, Principal Analyst; Emma Buckland, Senior Analyst; Hilary Bailey, Senior Analyst.

This Report analyses the key factors that are driving the voice market in Western Europe, and considers the potential impact that fixed - mobile substitution, convergence, VoIP and the economic downturn may have on the sector.

This Report provides:

  • comprehensive forecasts for the region as a whole, as well as individual forecasts for Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK
  • detailed breakdowns of retail revenue for fixed and mobile voice, fixed and mobile voice ARPU, minutes of use for fixed and mobile voice, and traffic volumes within fixed and mobile networks
  • an analysis of:
    • the impact that the recession is having on fixed - mobile substitution, and whether mobile voice revenue will return to its previous levels of growth as consumer spending recovers
    • the effect that decreasing termination rates will have on voice service revenue
    • the rate at which fixed-line loss will occur in different markets
    • the speed of the decline in prices and the impact that this will have on usage.

Authors

Stephen Sale (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason' s Voice research programme and one of the lead analysts for the Telecoms Market Matrix and Core Forecasts programmes. His primary areas of specialisation include consumer VoIP, fixed - mobile substitution and pricing strategies.

Emma Buckland (Senior Analyst) manages and is one of the key contributors to Analysys Mason' s Telecoms Market Matrix, which tracks and compares telecoms metrics and market shares for all the major fixed and mobile operators in Europe.

Hilary Bailey (Senior Analyst) has worked for Analysys Mason for more than 18 years. She specialises in quantitative forecast modelling and is responsible for quality control of modelling work within the Research division.

Table of Contents

  • 6. Document map - Executive summary
  • 7. Mobile voice ARPU will not recover from the downturn, even in markets that show potential for traffic growth
  • 8. Declining mobile voice revenue will no longer be able to compensate for steep declines in fixed voice revenue
  • 9. Document map - Recommendations
  • 10. Recommendations [1]
  • 11. Recommendations [2]
  • 12. Document map - Forecast
  • 13. The voice market continues to suffer in the downturn: total retail revenue was down by 3.5% in 2010
  • 14. Total voice usage is no longer increasing in most countries, despite a continued decline in prices
  • 15. Mobile voice traffic growth appeared unstoppable two years ago, but is no longer increasing at the rates it once did
  • 16. VoBB has helped to revive the fortunes of the fixed voice market
  • 17. Opportunities for customer acquisition are becoming limited as most mobile markets reach saturation
  • 18. Line substitution will become limited as users increasingly perceive fixed voice as an adjunct to broadband services
  • 19. The speed of VoBB take-up will depend on local factors, but there is little momentum in most markets
  • 20. The extent to which mobile usage will increase can be described in terms of the price elasticity of demand
  • 21. Mobile usage will eventually continue to grow, albeit at less dramatic rates
  • 22. Operators need to balance the preservation of margins with the need to remain competitive against OTT players
  • 23. Operators will need to make targeted price reductions and watch carefully over the relative value of voice and data
  • 24. Mobile voice ARPU will continue to decline, even as traffic growth recovers
  • 25. Mobile voice retail revenue is now in long-term decline, and will no longer compensate for losses in fixed voice revenue
  • 26. MTR decreases will have a severe impact on service revenue
  • 27. Document map - Market definition
  • 28. Geographical scope
  • 29. Dataset synopsis
  • 30. Our forecasts build on Telecoms Market Matrix, a comprehensive source of trusted quarterly market data
  • 31. The metrics we track offer insight into the dynamics of voice markets and are used as the basis for forecasting
  • 32. We have a sound knowledge of markets, which supports our comprehensive forecast model
  • 33. Voice forecast model outline
  • 34. Document map - About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 35. About the authors
  • 36. Copyright and disclaimer
  • 37. About Analysys Mason
  • 38. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 39. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures and tables

  • Figure 1: Average MoU per active subscriber in selected markets, Western Europe, 2008 - 2016
  • Figure 2: Mobile voice ARPU in selected markets, Western Europe, 2008 - 2016
  • Figure 3: Fixed and mobile voice retail revenue by type, Western Europe, 2010 - 2016
  • Figure 4: Fixed and mobile voice retail revenue in Western Europe, 1Q 2004 - 1Q 2011
  • Figure 5: MoU per capita in selected markets, Western Europe, 1Q 2004 - 1Q 2011
  • Figure 6: Average fixed, mobile and total retail revenue per minute, Western Europe, 1Q 2004 - 1Q 2011
  • Figure 7: Mobile share of voice traffic in selected markets, Western Europe, 1Q 2004 - 1Q 2011
  • Figure 8: Mobile price premium in selected markets, Western Europe, 1Q 2004 - 1Q 2011
  • Figure 9: Mobile share of voice traffic and mobile price premium, France, 1Q 2004 - 1Q 2011
  • Figure 10: Retail revenue per minute for PSTN and VoBB services, France, 1Q 2004 - 1Q 2011
  • Figure 11: Net additions by subscription type, Western Europe, 1Q 2010 - 1Q 2010
  • Figure 12: Contract and prepaid handset net additions and contract share of net additions, Western Europe, 2010 - 2016
  • Figure 13: Fixed voice channels by type, Western Europe, 2010 - 2016
  • Figure 14: Fixed voice penetration in selected markets, Western Europe, 2010 - 2016
  • Figure 15: Household penetration of VoBB as a primary voice service in selected markets, Western Europe, 2010 and 2016
  • Figure 16: Mobile share of voice traffic in selected markets, Western Europe, 2008 - 2016
  • Figure 17: Outgoing voice traffic by type, Western Europe, 2008 - 2016
  • Figure 18: Average mobile MoU per month and retail revenue per minute, Western Europe, 1Q 2011
  • Figure 19: Price elasticity of mobile voice in selected markets, Western Europe, 2006 - 2010
  • Figure 20: Active users of mobile VoIP applications and smartphone penetration, Western Europe, 2008 - 2010
  • Figure 21: Active mobile handsets by type, Western Europe, 2008 - 2016
  • Figure 22: Voice and SMS' s share of handset spend, relative to retail revenue per mobile minute, selected markets, Western Europe, 1Q 2011
  • Figure 23: Average MoU per active subscriber in selected markets, Western Europe, 2008 - 2016
  • Figure 24: Mobile voice ARPU in selected markets, Western Europe, 2008 - 2016
  • Figure 25: Fixed and mobile voice retail revenue by type, Western Europe, 2010 - 2016
  • Figure 26: Mobile voice service revenue by type, Western Europe, 2010 - 2016
  • Figure 27: Terminated mobile minutes, Western Europe, 2010 - 2016
  • Figure 28: Countries covered in this report
  • Figure 29: Synopsis of dataset
  • Figure 30: Key metrics for historical and forecast data
  • Figure 31: Key factors influencing forecast assumptions
  • Figure 32: Outline of the voice forecast model with derived metrics and cross-checks
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