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市場調査レポート

世界のワイヤレスネットワークトラフィック:予測・分析

Wireless Network Traffic Worldwide: Forecasts and Analysis 2014-2019

発行 Analysys Mason 商品コード 196804
出版日 ページ情報 英文 PPT and PDF (41 slides); Excel
納期: 即日から翌営業日
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世界のワイヤレスネットワークトラフィック:予測・分析 Wireless Network Traffic Worldwide: Forecasts and Analysis 2014-2019
出版日: 2014年10月15日 ページ情報: 英文 PPT and PDF (41 slides); Excel
概要

世界のモバイルデータ量増加率は2014年から2019年にかけて42.5%のCAGRが予測されており、2013年から2018年の47.1%を下回る見込みです。

当レポートでは、世界のワイヤレスネットワークトラフィックについて調査し、8つの地域および主要26カ国におけるワイヤレスデータトラフィックの5カ年予測、データトラフィックの主要動向・促進因子・阻害因子の分析、ワイヤレスネットワークの将来の容量のイネーブラーとその容量を供給するコストの評価、プライベート・パブリック利用における動向とそのモバイル・Wi-Fi接続の利用に及ぼす影響の概要などをまとめ、お届けいたします。

目次

エグゼクティブサマリ

市場成長促進因子・阻害因子

  • モバイルデータトラフィックの成長率は供給サイドの考察から、依然として大きく制約される
  • 需要サイドの複雑な要素もモバイルデータトラフィックの成長を抑制
  • モバイルデータトラフィックの成長は基本的に固定モバイル代替の高コストによって抑制される
  • 米国におけるモバイルデータトラフィックの成長率はその他の先進市場を上回る
  • モバイルデータ成長率の減速はほとんどの先進アジア太平洋経済諸国で際立つ、ほか

主な予測結果

  • パーソナルデバイスにおける活発なSIM数は2016年までに世界の人口を追い越す
  • モバイルデータトラフィックの成長は地域によって大きく異なり、一概に、先進市場で低くなる見込み
  • スマートフォンはパーソナルwi-Fiのハブとしてその他のデバイスに取って代わる
  • 端末における平均モバイルデータ利用の成長は先進市場において年間30%に沈むと予測
  • タブレットおよびその他の中型スクリーンデバイスは引き続きモバイルトラフィックミックスのごく一部、ほか

市場定義

著者・ Analysys Masonについて

図表

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目次

Mobile traffic growth will be fundamentally constrained by the high cost of fixed-mobile substitution.

Operators, vendors, policy makers and regulators look to traffic forecasts to help inform future-looking decisions. This report summarises the demand-side drivers and the supply-side constraints that apply to mobile (cellular) data traffic, and examines how fixed and Wi-Fi data usage simultaneously complements and disrupts the mobile broadband ecosystem.


This report presents:

  • 5-year forecasts of wireless data traffic worldwide, in eight regions and 26 selected countries
  • analyses the key trends in, and drivers and inhibitors of, data traffic
  • assesses the enablers of future capacity on wireless networks and the cost of supplying that capacity
  • analyses the trends in private and public usage, and their effect on the use of mobile and Wi-Fi connectivity.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Data is provided for the following regions.

  • North America
  • Western Europe
  • Central and Eastern Europe
  • Developed Asia-Pacific
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific
  • Latin America
  • Middle East and North Africa
  • Sub-Saharan Africa

Data is provided for the following 26 selected countries.

  • Australia
  • Bangladesh
  • Brazil
  • China
  • France
  • Germany
  • Hong Kong
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Italy
  • Japan
  • Malaysia
  • Mexico
  • Pakistan
  • Poland
  • Russia
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Singapore
  • South Korea
  • Spain
  • Taiwan
  • Thailand
  • Turkey
  • UAE
  • UK
  • USA

DATA COVERAGE

The following major KPIs are included in the data annex that accompanies this report.

Mobile data

Total volume and average usage for:

  • handsets
  • mid-screen devices
  • USB modems and routers
  • M2M and smart wearables.

 

Traffic split by:

  • public and private usage
  • median usage per smartphone
  • downstream and upstream

Wi-Fi data

Total volume and average usage for:

  • handsets
  • mid-screen devices, split by mobile-connected and Wi-Fi-only devices
  • laptops (public Wi-Fi connectivity only).

 

Traffic split by public and private usage.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Rupert Wood (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason's Fixed Networks research programme. His primary areas of specialisation include next-generation networks, long-term industry strategy and forecasting the dynamics of convergence and substitution across fixed and mobile platforms. Rupert regularly contributes to the international press on a wide range of telecoms subjects and has been quoted by The Times, The Economist, Business Week, Telecommunications Online and La Tribune. Rupert has a PhD from the University of Cambridge, where he was a Lecturer before joining Analysys Mason.

Table of Contents

  • 6. Executive summary
  • 7. Our forecasts indicate that the CAGR of mobile data volume will be 42.5% worldwide for 2014-2019, and 47.1% for 2013-2018
  • 8. Growth rates in mobile data traffic in most countries fell in 2013, but there were significant exceptions
  • 9. What we have changed since our last analysis
  • 10. Drivers and inhibitors
  • 11. Mobile data traffic growth is still highly constrained by supply-side considerations
  • 12. Demand-side complications can also limit the growth of mobile data traffic
  • 13. Mobile data traffic growth is fundamentally constrained by the high cost of fixed-mobile substitution
  • 14. The rate of mobile data traffic growth in the USA exceeded that of other developed markets
  • 15. The slow down in the rate of growth in mobile data has been very marked in the most advanced Asia-Pacific economies
  • 16. Volumes of mobile data traffic continue to grow at a relatively slow rate in Europe
  • 17. What do the leading markets tell us
  • 18. New investment in fixed networks will slow mobile traffic growth in middle-income markets
  • 19. China and India: a comparison of mobile data usage
  • 20. Key forecast results
  • 21. The number of active SIMs in personal devices will outstrip the world's population by 2016
  • 22. Mobile data traffic growth will vary between regions and, in general, will be lower in developed markets
  • 23. Smartphones will displace other devices as hubs for personal Wi-Fi
  • 24. We forecast that growth in average mobile data usage on handsets will settle to 30% per year in developed markets
  • 25. Tablets and other mid-screen devices will continue to be a small part of the mobile traffic mix
  • 26. Tablets and smartphones will constitute nearly half of all fixed data traffic in developed economies by 2019
  • 27. M2M and smart wearable SIMs will account for 2% of mobile data traffic by 2019, but most smart wearables will be tethered
  • 28. By 2019, 13% of SIM-enabled devices will be 4G and these will generate 79% of mobile data traffic
  • 29. The divergence between median and mean usage and the asymmetry of usage are both related to video consumption
  • 30. By 2019, the volume of Wi-Fi traffic generated by handsets and tablets will be over seven times higher than mobile traffic
  • 31. Public Wi-Fi is driven by different strategic aims, but its share of total traffic is usually quite modest
  • 32. Market definition
  • 33. Data sources and methodology
  • 34. Definition of geographical regions [1]
  • 35. Definition of geographical regions [2]
  • 36. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 37. About the author
  • 38. About Analysys Mason
  • 39. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 40. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
  • Figure 2: Mobile data traffic, developed and emerging markets, 2012-2018 (2013 forecast) and 2012-2019 (2014 forecast)
  • Figure 3: Growth in mobile data traffic, by region, 2012-2013
  • Figure 4: Growth in mobile data traffic, by country, 2011, 2012 and 2013
  • Figure 5: Mobile network capacity growth, 2014-2019
  • Figure 6: Hours not spent working or travelling, average mobile data usage per capita, 2013
  • Figure 7: Mobile data traffic, USA, 2H 2009-2H 2012 and 2013
  • Figure 8: Annual rate of growth in mobile data traffic, selected developed markets, Asia-Pacific, 2H 2010-1H 2014
  • Figure 9: Mobile data usage per capita per month, selected developed markets, Asia-Pacific, 2H 2009-1H 2014
  • Figure 10: Annual rate of growth for mobile data traffic, selected countries, Europe, 1H 2010-1H 2014
  • Figure 11: Investment and fixed-mobile convergence
  • Figure 12: Average Internet usage and GDP per capita, by region and Romania, 2013
  • Figure 13: Mobile data usage per 3G/4G SIM per month, China and India, 2012 and 2013
  • Figure 14: Mobile and Wi-Fi metrics, China Mobile, 2012, 2013 and 1H 2014
  • Figure 15: Mobile connections, by type, worldwide, 2011-2019
  • Figure 16: Mobile connections (excluding M2M), by device generation, worldwide, 2011-2019
  • Figure 17: Mobile data traffic growth multiples, by region, 2013-2019
  • Figure 18: Mobile data traffic, by region, 2012-2019
  • Figure 19: Mobile data traffic growth multiples, by device type, 2013-2019
  • Figure 20: Mobile data traffic, by device type, worldwide, 2012-2019
  • Figure 21: Average mobile data usage per 3G/4G handset SIM, selected developed markets, 2013
  • Figure 22: Average mobile data usage per 3G/4G handset SIM by handset technology generation, developed markets, 2012-2019
  • Figure 23: Mid-screen devices' share of mobile data traffic, and mobile networks' share of mid-screen device traffic, developed markets, 2012-2019
  • Figure 24: Smartphone and mid-screen devices' share of fixed data traffic, developed markets, 2011-2019
  • Figure 25: Median data usage per smartphone by network type and smartphone screen size (n = 1588)
  • Figure 26: Mobile data traffic, by M2M and smart wearable SIMs, worldwide, 2014-2019
  • Figure 27: 4G devices' share of mobile data traffic, by region, 2011-2019
  • Figure 28: Mobile data traffic share by device and network generation, USA, 3Q 2013
  • Figure 29: Median 3G/4G handset usage as a proportion of mean usage, worldwide, 2011-2019
  • Figure 30: Mobile data traffic share by type of network connection, worldwide, 2011-2019
  • Figure 31: Wireless data traffic by device type, and proportion generated in a private location, worldwide, 2013-2019
  • Figure 32: Regional breakdown used in this report [1]
  • Figure 33: Regional breakdown used in this report [2]
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