英国のケアホーム建設市場の分析：2015-2019年

当レポートでは、英国の長期介護ケアホーム産業と関連施設の状況について調査し、国内の経済・社会的環境、産業構造、施設数・入居者数などの推移、資金源、施設の需給バランス、特別介護つき住宅部門の動向、事業者区分 (民間・自治体・非営利) 別の動向、建設生産高の動向、建設プログラム、投資計画などの動向についてまとめています。

第1章 イントロダクション

第2章 サマリー・将来の展望

第3章 経済環境

• GDP
• インフレ率・金利
• 失業者数
• 世帯消費
• 住宅供給・建設
• 英貨
• 人口プロファイル
• 総論

第4章 英国の長期介護産業

• 産業の定義
• 産業の概要・意義
  • 展望
• 産業の規模・構造
  • 高齢者向け長期介護
• 介護産業における需要と供給
  • ケアホームの将来的需要
  • 地域によるケアホームの分布状況
  • 今後の需要促進要因
• 特別介護付き住宅 (Extra Care Housing) 部門
  • 概要
  • 特別介護の発展
  • 特別介護付き住宅への資金供給
  • 特別介護付き住宅のプランニングにおける課題
• 長期介護部門への資金供給
  • ソーシャルケア支出
• 独立系事業者による長期介護部門
  • 市場規模
  • 主要事業者
• 地方自治体・非営利団体による介護部門
  • 概要・市場規模
  • 構造・規模
  • 主要事業者

第5章 建設市場の概況

• 建設部門生産高
• 建設部門生産高の予測：産業別
• 医療産業における建設部門生産高
• 民間医療投資
• ケアホームの建設プログラム・投資額
• 主要独立系プロバイダーの建設プログラム・拡張計画

第6章 長期介護部門における建設能力と供給

• 長期介護部門の代表的な建設・開発業者
  • Bouygues
  • Building Construction Partnership (BCP)
  • Castlemead
  • Castleoak
  • Galliford Try
  • Keepmoat
  • LNT Construction
  • Stepnell
  • Wates
  • Willmott Dixon
  • その他

図表一覧

INTRODUCTION and OVERVIEW

AMA Research have published the 3^rd edition of the ‘Care Homes Construction Market Report - UK 2015-2019 Analysis'. This report should be of particular interest to care providers in the private and local authority sectors and construction/service companies involved in the long-term care sector.

Key issues covered:

• Structure and size of both the independent and voluntary sectors.
• Construction output and RMI in the healthcare and care homes sectors, with forecasts to 2019.
• Analysis of supply and demand in the care sector against a backdrop of an ageing population.
• Sources of funding and investment in the independent and voluntary care sectors.
• Development pipeline - key building programmes and major players.

Key areas of insight include:

• Review of private, public/voluntary provision - mix shares, values, trends in last decade, future prospects up to 2019.
• Implications of bedspace shortages and funding of long-term care.
• Analysis of long-term care homes development pipeline.
• Detailed analysis of the development opportunities available to develop residential care property and the building programmes and expansion plans of leading independent and voluntary sector providers.
• Review of key contractors / clients/ development programmes.

Some of the companies included:

Allenbuild, BAM, Bardsley Construction, Bouygues, Building Construction Partnership (BCP), Care UK, Castlemead, Castleoak, Galliford Try, Greswolde, Keepmoat, Leadbitter, LNT Construction, Morgan Ashurst, Stepnell, Wates, Willmott Dixon.

Key areas covered in the report include:

THE LONG-TERM CARE SECTOR IN THE UK

• Sector value and market overview - sector size and structure - number of homes, residents, bedspaces 2004-2014, - split by provider (private, voluntary, LA, NHS) 1998-2015.
• Funding for the long-term care sector - plans for adult social care funding reform under the Care Act - impact of delays.
• Supply and demand in the care sector - regional provision of care homes beds and homes 2014/15, drivers of demand, population age profile up to 2080, future demand for care home places 2015-2020, size of new developments.
• ‘Extra-care' housing sector - number of developments by region, scale of sector, £300m funding, key players etc.
• Independent long-term care sector - sector size & value 2009-2019, leading 20 independent care providers - market shares, profiles, development plans etc, changes in market structure.
• Local Authority/Voluntary care sector - sector size & value 2009-2019, leading 20 voluntary care providers - Housing Assocs, Voluntary - shares of leading providers.

CONSTRUCTION MARKET OVERVIEW

• Value of output - construction new work - construction output in 2012 and beyond.
• Construction output in the healthcare sector and forecasts for output 2015-19.
• RMI in the healthcare & care homes sector - 2009-2019 by value. Age profile of care homes.

BUILDING PROGRAMMES AND INVESTMENT IN THE CARE HOMES SECTOR

• Private healthcare investment - principal private care home funds - key operations, fund values etc.
• Funding & ownership models in the care homes sector.
• Mergers & acquisitions in the private long-term care sector - key recent changes.
• Care home development pipeline - care home size and facilities, care homes planning applications by region (H1 2015), average sizes (2004-14).
• Building programmes & expansion plans of leading care providers - key players in sector, key factors driving development programmes (land availability, demand, design standards etc).

CONSTRUCTION SUPPLY IN THE CARE HOMES SECTOR

• Key construction companies and developers in the long-term care sector.
• Contractor/Developer Profiles - Bouygues, Building Construction Partnership, Castlemead, Castleoak, Galliford Try, Keepmoat, Leadbitter, LNT, Stepnell, Thomas Vale, Wates, Willmott Dixon etc - key clients, development programmes, capabilities etc.

Table of Contents

1. INTRODUCTION

2. SUMMARY AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

3. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

• 3.1. GDP
• 3.2. INFLATION & INTEREST RATES
• 3.3. UNEMPLOYMENT
• 3.4. HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
• 3.5. HOUSING & CONSTRUCTION
• 3.6. STERLING
• 3.7. POPULATION PROFILE
• 3.8. CONCLUSIONS

4. THE LONG TERM CARE SECTOR IN THE UK

• 4.1. SECTOR DEFINITION
• 4.2. SECTOR OVERVIEW AND VALUE
  • 4.2.1. Outlook for the Sector
• 4.3. SECTOR SIZE AND STRUCTURE
  • 4.3.1. Long Term Care for the Elderly
• 4.4. SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN THE CARE SECTOR
  • 4.4.1. Future Demand for Care Home Places
  • 4.4.2. Regional Provision of Care Homes
  • 4.4.3. Future Drivers of Demand
• 4.5. THE ‘EXTRACARE' HOUSING SECTOR
  • 4.5.1. Overview
  • 4.5.2. Extra Care Developments
  • 4.5.3. Funding for ExtraCare Housing
  • 4.5.4. Planning Issues for ExtraCare Housing
• 4.6. FUNDING FOR THE LONG TERM CARE SECTOR
  • 4.6.1. Social Care Spending
• 4.7. THE INDEPENDENT LONG TERM CARE SECTOR
  • 4.7.1. Sector Value and Size
  • 4.7.2. Leading Independent Care Providers
• 4.8. THE LOCAL AUTHORITY/VOLUNTARY CARE SECTOR
  • 4.8.1. Overview and Sector Value
  • 4.8.2. Structure and Size
  • 4.8.3. Leading Voluntary Care Providers

5. CONSTRUCTION MARKET OVERVIEW

• 5.1. TOTAL CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT
  • 5.1.1. Construction New Work - Value of Non-Domestic Output to 2019
• 5.2. CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT BY SECTOR TO 2019
• 5.3. CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT IN THE HEALTHCARE SECTOR
  • 5.3.1. Healthcare Construction Output - Forecasts to 2019
  • 5.3.2. RMI in the Healthcare/Care Home Sector
• 5.4. PRIVATE HEALTHCARE INVESTMENT
  • 5.4.1. Principal Private Care Home Funds
  • 5.4.2. Mergers & Acquisitions in the Private Long-Term Care Sector
• 5.5. BUILDING PROGRAMMES AND INVESTMENT IN THE CARE HOMES SECTOR
  • 5.5.1. Care Home Development Pipeline
  • 5.5.2. Care Home Size
• 5.6. BUILDING PROGRAMMES AND EXPANSION PLANS OF LEADING INDEPENDENT CARE PROVIDERS
  • 5.6.1. Market Activity

6. CONSTRUCTION CAPABILITY AND SUPPLY IN THE LONG-TERM CARE SECTOR

• 6.1. LEADING CONTRACTORS AND DEVELOPERS IN THE CARE HOMES SECTOR
  • 6.1.1. Bouygues
  • 6.1.2. Building Construction Partnership (BCP)
  • 6.1.3. Castlemead
  • 6.1.4. Castleoak
  • 6.1.5. Galliford Try
  • 6.1.6. Keepmoat
  • 6.1.7. LNT Construction
  • 6.1.8. Stepnell
  • 6.1.9. Wates
  • 6.1.10. Willmott Dixon
  • 6.1.11. Others

TABLES AND CHARTS

• CHART 1: NURSING & RESIDENTIAL CARE HOMES/BED-SPACES BY TYPE OF PROVIDER (%) - 2015
• TABLE 2: GDP DATA - 2012-2015 - KEY CONSTITUENT ELEMENTS
• CHART 3: INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION (CPI) FROM 2000-2019
• CHART 4: PDI & SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 2000-2019
• TABLE 5: EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2010-2015 - STERLING TO THE DOLLAR, AND THE EURO, SPOT RATES
• CHART 6: UK CARE HOMES MARKET - SECTOR REVENUE (INDEPENDENT/PUBLIC SECTOR) BY % SHARE - 2015
• TABLE 7: LONG-TERM CARE MARKET BY OWNERSHIP TYPE - NUMBER OF CARE HOMES/BED-SPACES 2014-15*
• CHART 8: NUMBER OF CARE HOME RESIDENTS 2004 - 2014 (‘000)
• CHART 9: FUTURE DEMAND FOR CARE HOMES 2015 - 2020
• CHART 10: NO. CARE HOMES (ALL TYPES) IN THE UK 2014-15 BY REGION
• CHART 11: NO. BED-SPACES IN CARE HOMES (ALL TYPES) IN THE UK BY REGION - 2014-15
• CHART 12: PROJECTED INCREASE IN UK POPULATION OVER 65 (AS A PROPORTION OF TOTAL UK POPULATION - %) 2010 - 2081
• TABLE 13: EXTRACARE HOUSING - NUMBER OF DEVELOPMENTS BY REGION 2015
• TABLE 14: SOCIAL CARE EXPENDITURE (RESIDENTIAL CARE) FOR THOSE OVER 65 IN 2014-15 BY TYPE OF CARE (£BN)
• CHART 15: PRIVATE LONG-TERM ADULT CARE MARKET BY VALUE 2009 - 2019 (£BILLION)
• TABLE 16: LEADING 20 PRIVATE PROVIDERS OF LONG-TERM CARE* - NUMBER OF HOMES AND BED SPACES - 2015
• CHART 17: NURSING & RESIDENTIAL CARE HOMES BY OWNERSHIP TYPE (%) - 1990 - 2015
• TABLE 18: LEADING 20 VOLUNTARY SECTOR PROVIDERS OF LONG-TERM CARE 2015*
• CHART 19: VALUE OF NON-DOMESTIC CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT 2009 - 2019 BY VALUE (£BN AT CURRENT PRICES)
• TABLE 20: NON-DOMESTIC CONSTRUCTION NEW WORK OUTPUT 2014 - 2019 - BY SECTOR AND VALUE (£BN AT CURRENT PRICES)
• TABLE 21: CONTRACTORS OUTPUT OF HEALTHCARE SECTOR WORK (PUBLIC/PRIVATE) 2008-2014 (£M)
• CHART 22: HEALTH CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT FORECASTS 2009 TO 2019 - BY VALUE (£BN AT CURRENT PRICES)
• TABLE 23: HEALTHCARE RMI MARKET (£M) 2009 -2019
• CHART 24: PERCENTAGE OF INDEPENDENT CARE HOME BUILDINGS BY AGE
• CHART 25: CARE HOME OPERATING COSTS - SHARE AS % OF FEES - STAFF, CAPITAL, RMI, SUPPLIES & SERVICES, UTILITIES ETC
• TABLE 26: CHANGES IN NEW BUILD CARE HOMES - ROOM TYPES, AVERAGE SIZES, FACILITIES ETC
• CHART 27: CARE HOME PLANNING APPLICATIONS H1 2015 - % APPLICATIONS BY REGION
• CHART 28: AVERAGE SIZE OF CARE HOMES (NURSING & RESIDENTIAL) IN ENGLAND 2004 AND 2014
• TABLE 29: MAJOR CARE HOME PROVIDERS/DEVELOPERS - DEVELOPMENT PLANS 2015 - 2020 SUMMARY TABLE
• TABLE 30: LEADING CONTRACTORS & DEVELOPERS IN THE PRIVATE CARE HOME SECTOR - KEY CLIENTS, CAPABILITY & EXPERIENCE