株式会社グローバルインフォメーション
TEL: 044-952-0102
市場調査レポート

中国の乳業への投資環境調査:四半期レポート

Proposal for Dairy Investment Research Quarterly Report

発行 Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant 商品コード 98948
出版日 ページ情報 英文
納期: 即日から翌営業日
価格
本日の銀行送金レート: 1USD=114.58円で換算しております。
Back to Top
中国の乳業への投資環境調査:四半期レポート Proposal for Dairy Investment Research Quarterly Report
出版日: 2016年02月01日 ページ情報: 英文
概要

当年間情報サービスでは、中国の乳業・酪農業の動向について調査分析し、乳製品の需要量・供給量の拡大牽引因子、乳製品の産業チェーン、各種製品の生産量と収益、主要生産者の生産量と収益、輸出入動向、中国政府の政策とその影響などについてまとめ、四半期ごとに概略下記の構成にてお届けいたします。

四半期レポートの例(2009年第1四半期)

第1章 乳製品への消費者信頼感指数

  • 乳業の消費者信頼感指数
  • 乳製品の需要
    • 乳製品の需要牽引因子:人口・都市部1人あたりの可処分所得、など
    • 都市部1人あたりの可処分所得:10.2%成長(2009年第1四半期)
    • 農村部1人あたりの実収入:8.6%成長(2009年第1四半期)
    • 人口:5%成長(2009年予測)
  • 乳製品の供給
    • 乳製品の供給牽引因子
    • 酪農牛の在庫
    • ミルクと餌の価格比率
  • 乳製品生産量の拡大
    • ミルク製造(液状)
    • 固形ミルクの生産量
  • 販売収益
  • 乳製品の売上総利益
    • 生乳・粉ミルクの価格変動:CPIと連動
    • 乳製品価格
  • 乳製品の総収益
  • 乳業の予測
    • 都市部1人あたりの乳製品消費量
    • 2009年の販売収益の見通し
    • 生乳供給というボトルネック

第2章 乳製品の産業チェーン

  • 生乳の平均コスト
  • 1日あたりの平均生産量:15kg(年間4.5トン)
  • 生乳の主要生産地:中国北東部・北部・北西部
  • 小規模酪農経営から大規模経営へのシフト
  • 調達リンク
  • 各種リンクの利益幅
  • 乳製品加工企業の主な成功因子

第3章 乳製品市場における競合

  • 2008年の液体ミルク収益:2007年からの若干成長
  • 液体ミルクの生産量
  • UHTミルク
  • 殺菌ミルク
  • ヨーグルト
  • 主要生産者の売上
  • 固形乳製品(粉ミルク、コンデンスミルク、乳脂肪、チーズを含む)の生産量、など

第4章 輸出入:2006-2008年

第5章 Yili社

第6章 乳製品関連政策の解釈

第7章 「メラミン事件」の乳業への影響

このページに掲載されている内容は最新版と異なる場合があります。詳細はお問い合わせください。

目次

Abstract

About BOABC industry prosperity index

Relationship between supply and demand, prices, policies are the most important factors affecting development of the industry, changes in supply and demand will direct affect the price, sales and profits in the industry. BOABC industry prosperity index is weighted by the extraction factors from supply and demand aspects, integrated with market factors, such as sales, increase rate, and total profit. The index represents the quality of the industry development. We can forecast industry development trends according to the relativity between supply and demand factors and market factors, so to provide investment reference to all kinds of investors.

Table of Contents

I. Consumer Confidence Index for Dairy Products 7

1. Consumer Confidence Index of Dairy Industry to See a Rally in 2009 after Touching the Bottom 7

2. Research of Dairy Demand 9

  • Driving factors behind dairy demand: population, urban per capita disposable income, rural per capita net income and export 9
  • Per capita disposable income of urban residents: 10.2% growth in Q1 of 2009, the growth continued to slow down 10
  • Per capita net income of rural residents: 8.6% growth in Q1 of 2009, a big rally 10
  • Population: a growth rate of 5% is projected in 2009, with a slowing pace 11

3. Research of the Supply of Dairy Products 11

  • Driving force of dairy supply: dairy cattle inventory and price ratio between milk and feed 11
  • Dairy cattle inventory: 12% decline of dairy cattle inventory in Q1 of 2009, and Q2 is foreseen to see steady inventory 12
  • Price ratio between milk and feed: raw milk price was sluggish from the latter half of 2008, and the price ratio between milk and feed lingered around a low level. 13

4. Growth of Dairy Production 14

  • Liquid milk production: lowest level in Q4 of 2008, 7.1% growth in Q1 of 2009 than Q1 of 2008, bouncing back 14
  • Output of solid milk: 27% less in Q1 of 2009 over Q1 of 2008, Q3 is foreseen to be steady 14

5. Sales Revenue of Scaled Dairy Companies and Growth 15

  • Sales revenue: 3.2% more sales revenue in Q1 of 2009 over Q1 of 2008 15

6. Gross Profit Margin of Dairy Products 15

  • Price changes of fresh milk and powder closely relate to CPI, whereas yogurt price is not much related to CPI. 16
  • Dairy price: steady in Q4 of 2008, rally in Q1 of 2009 16

7. Total Profit of Dairy Products: Q1 of 2009 Similar as in Same Period 2008 17

8. Forecast of Dairy Industry 18

  • The per capita dairy consumption of urban residents was 22.26kg in 2008 and 3.04kg for rural residents. 18
  • The per capita dairy consumption volume in China is much lower than the world average, and the there is a huge market potential in the future. 19
  • Sales revenue in 2009 is hopefully to see 10.6% growth. 19
  • Raw milk supply shall become the bottleneck of dairy industrial development from 2010-2011. 19

II. Dairy Industrial Chain 20

  • The average cost of raw milk in the nation is 2.31 yuan/kg, feed cost makes up around 70% of total dairy farming cost. 21
  • 15kg of daily milk yield of dairy cattle on average, and the yearly amount was 4.5 tons 21
  • Raw milk is mainly produced in the Northeast, North China and the Northwest. 22
  • Shift from smallholder dairy farming to scaled farming 23
  • Procurement link of milk stations: processing companies pay by quality and decide raw milk price. 23
  • Profit margin of different link: raw milk makes up around 75% of the cost of dairy processing companies, and the profit margin is noticeably squeezed by dealers. 24
  • Core factors for the success of a dairy processing company are capability in controlling raw milk, capability in quality control and capability in market promotion. 25

III. Competition of Dairy Market 25

  • 75 billion yuan of sales revenue of liquid milk in 2008, slightly higher from 2007 25
  • Output of liquid milk: production and sales volume in 2008 was the same as in 2007. 26
  • UHT milk output saw negative growth for first time in 2008 27
  • The growth of the output of pasteurized milk slowed down in 2008, but still 3% growth. 28
  • The output of yogurt grew by 4% in 2008, still enjoying the fastest growth among dairy products. 28
  • Production and sales of main liquid milk producers 29
  • 17.6% less production of solid milk (including powder, condensed milk, milk fat and cheese) in 2008 29
  • 65 billion yuan of sales of powder in 2008, a recovery growth is likely in the 3rd quarter of 2009. 30
  • Update of production and sales of powder of key companies 31
  • Analysis of advantages and disadvantages of dairy companies 32

IV. Import and Export from 2006-2008 34

  • Dairy import is mainly powder, condensed milk and whey, powder import accounts for around 8% of the national production. 34
  • Source of powder import: New Zealand, Australia and the US are the three main suppliers of milk powder to China. 35
  • Source of import of whey: the US, France, the Netherlands and Finland are the main suppliers of whey to China. 36
  • The export of dairy products is mainly powder, condensed milk and fresh milk, the export of fresh milk is less than 1% of the national production. 36
  • Venezuela is the largest importer of milk powder from China, and Hong Kong is the largest importer of fresh milk. 38

V. Yili: Fill up the Blankness of Sanlu and Becomes New Leading Player of Milk Powder 38

  • 12% growth of sales of liquid milk in 2009 is projected. 38
  • To become new leading player of milk powder by filling up the blankness of Sanlu 39
  • Forecast of Yili 39
  • Listed dairy companies 40

VI. Interpretation of Dairy Policy 41

  • Raw milk procurement stations for the first time are included in the range of subsidy for agro-machinery. 41
  • "Technical Norms of Standardized Management of Raw Milk Procurement Stations" ensures safety at procurement link of dairy products. 41
  • Planning of competitive dairy farming regions shall further heighten the concentration level of raw milk production. 42
  • Implementation of the "Food Safety Law" further regulates the quality and safety of dairy products. 43

VII. Impacts from Melamine Incident on Dairy Industry 44

  • Raw milk production converges towards mechanized and scaled production 44
  • Dairy processing companies tend to extend industrial chain so as to guarantee quality and safety of milk from the source. 45
  • Import and export: decline of export but enlargement of import 45
Back to Top