英国の郊外型小売業

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Abstract

Synopsis

Expansion out-of-town is under more scrutiny than ever as retailers fortunes diverge. Some players are downsizing while others continue to expand. What is driving their success or failure? Get Verdict Retail's view on the future of out-of-town retail.

Description

INTRODUCTION

UK Out-of-town Retailing 2012: While out-of-town retailing continues to provide opportunities for growth, pitfalls exist. Retailers must ensure that new space is offering sufficient sales gains to warrant expansion. For some players downsizing and scaling back expansion plans is necessary. This report examines the sectors with further potential for growth and those in danger of further closures.

FEATURES AND BENEFITS

• Use our five year forecasts for the out-of-town market and its six major retail sectors to plan your expansion strategies
• Size your market and understand your position within it with Verdict Retail's space and sales data for each of the six major out-of-town retail sectors
• Understand the impact of online growth on out-of-town retail and get new strategies to address the changing market environment

HIGHLIGHTS

As grocer expansion continues sales growth for food & grocery out-of-town is slowing. Increased competition and shoppers switching to top-up shopping is weakening demand out-of-town, leaving less profitable space opportunities.Understand how grocer expansion will adjust to the changes in consumer demand and competitive pressures

Older shoppers are being neglected by out-of-town retailers as rising fuel prices and decreased mobility make travelling out-of-town more difficult. These older shoppers are home-owners and thus represent an important target market for home related retailers. Delivery options and public transport links need to be improved to avoid missed sales.

The growth in online retail is less of a threat to out-of-town than town centre, due to the nature of out-of-town products, but still cannot be ignored. Convenient click & collect or click & drive faciities will help out-of-town retailers to adapt to and benefit from increasingly multichannel shopping behaviour.

YOUR KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED

• What are the risks and benefits of out-of-town space expansion for my sector and for my competitors?
• How will out-of-town retailing change in the next five years and how can I stay ahead of the trends?
• How can I improve sales densities and ensure profitable space performance out-of-town?

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Key findings
  • 2012 will continue to be tough;
  • Out-of-town outperforms over five years;
  • Food & grocery growth slows;
  • A lack of mobility means out-of-town is missing out on the lucrative older shopper;
  • OOT products less suited to online but threat of pureplays remains;
  • Harsh market conditions encouraging larger retailers to be more efficient.

• Main Conclusions
  • 2012 will continue to be tough
  • Out-of-town outperforms over five years
  • Food & grocery growth slows
  • A lack of mobility means out-of-town is missing out on the lucrative older shopper
  • OOT products less suited to online but threat of pureplays remains
  • Harsh market conditions encouraging larger retailers to be more efficient

RETAIL ISSUES

• Online
  • OOT products less suited to online
  • Customers will continue to seek service
  • Delivery issues will make some wary
  • Retailers still push finance
  • OOT ideal for click and collect stores
  • Integration of multiple channels critical for success

• Grocers expansion continues
  • Convenience store expansion focus, but out-of-town not forgotten
  • Larger stores give way for added value
  • Following the path of least resistance
  • Tesco developments boost out-of-town space
  • Some will benefit from expansion ...
  • ... while densities will be impacted for others

• Private equity
  • Firms eager to invest following downturn
  • OOT retailers expand with private backing
  • Opportunities abound for privately backed retailers
  • Concession model would help fashion chains

• Economy
  • Out-of-town's share of total retail spend to remain static for fourth straight year
  • A more cautious customer has had a significant impact on out-of-town's traditional retailers
  • The destination status of retail parks will also impact on out-of-town's performance
  • Food & grocery growth slows
  • Grocers help drive footfall to out-of-town, but can also have a detrimental effect
  • The channel has been supported by clothing retailers
  • General merchandisers have also boosted the sector
  • Advantage of free parking out-of-town trumps town centre ...
  • ... however, the rising price of petrol may lower the number of trips made to retail parks in the future
  • A positive from the harsher market conditions is that it is encouraging larger retailers to be more efficient

• Demographic factors
  • What barriers exist and what retail parks can do to overcome them
  • Incomes under greater pressure discourage shoppers from visiting out-of-town retail parks
  • Fuel promotions may counter rising fuel prices and encourage families to visit
  • Incorporating a greater range of value-orientated retailers in a park could drive footfall
  • A lack of mobility means out-of-town is missing out on the lucrative older shopper
  • Retail parks should look to integrate more with the surrounding public transport network
  • Improving the delivery service is also a key consideration for older shoppers

STRATEGIES FOR SUCCESS

• Grocers
  • Growth will be harder but not impossible

• Specialist retailers
  • Provide added value in services to win customer loyalty

• Investors & landlords
  • New challenges necessitate new strategies

OUT-OF-TOWN MAJOR PLAYERS: WINNERS AND LOSERS

• Tesco's slip allows competitors to inch closer to number one
  • Grocers shape market dynamics
  • Growth remains for Asda, Morrisons & Sainsbury's ...
  • ... but Tesco drops ball and recovery will be tough
  • Electricals decline continues

• OOT sales - Tesco to stumble in 2012
  • Half of leader's lost share will be grabbed by players outside Top 11

• Total sales
  • Grocer consolidation increases as specialists struggle

• Operating profits
  • Specialists struggle to grow profits

• Operating margins
  • Discounting and inflation continue to pressurise margins

• Space
  • Expansion plans revised as densities suffer

• Store numbers
  • More stores will not bring more sales

• Advertising
  • Tesco continues to dominate

OUT-OF-TOWN VS OTHER LOCATIONS

• Gives way to neighbourhood but still outpaces town centre
  • After decade as top physical location out-of-town gives way to neighbourhood;
  • Rise of online and big ticket slowdown hits out-of-town;
  • Inflation sets in ... as grocers increase coverage;
  • Out-of-town space continues to expand as town centres contract further;
  • Sales densities at virtual standstill;
  • Store numbers to recover in 2012
  • As other locations recover, out-of-town share to decline

• Retail sales by location
  • After decade as top physical location out-of-town gives way to neighbourhood

• Retail spend by location
  • Rise of online and big ticket slowdown hit out-of-town

• Sales and sources of growth
  • Inflation sets in ...

• Space by location
  • Out-of-town continues to expand as town centres contract further

• Sales densities by location
  • Out-of-town at virtual standstill

• Store numbers by location
  • Store numbers to recover in 2012

• Forecast
  • As other locations recover, out-of-town share to decline

SPACE PERFORMANCE

• Big ticket sales struggle but stronger players continue to draw sales
  • Despite weak demand for big ticket items, consolidation has created stronger survivors and grocers have upheld overall density growth out-of-town in the past five years;
  • Sales continue to grow but the majority of the Top 11 OOT retailers will see densities weaken in 2012 as space recovers at a faster pace. Morrisons will be the only grocer to raise its density in 2012;
  • Recovery in the housing market will aid non-grocery space in outperforming grocery towards 2015;
  • While grocery space will reap less reward going forward, specialist electricals retailers will benefit from consolidation.

• Sales densities by location
  • Despite big ticket struggles grocers uphold density growth out-of-town

• Sales densities by retailer
  • Morrisons the only retailer in the Top Five growing densities

• Grocery space performance vs. non-grocery
  • Non-grocery space will outperform towards 2015

• Sales densities by sector
  • Specialist electricals retailers benefit from consolidation

SECTOR SUMMARIES AND FORECASTS

• Online dents growth for some as grocers expand aggressively
  • Grocers increase share of OOT as online growth impacts on other sectors;
  • Neighbourhood expansion dents out-of-town in grocers' mix;
  • Downturn in big ticket spending causes furniture & floorcoverings, electricals, and DIY spending to slip;
  • Portfolio consolidation forces space declines in weaker sectors;
  • OOT space to recover as economic upturn brings new developments;
  • General merchandisers and grocers overtake store numbers in slimmed down furniture market;
  • Numbers to recover as developers aim to add space;
  • Average store size continues to rise as retailers aspire to larger stores.

• OOT sales - sector breakdown
  • Grocers increase share of OOT sales as online impacts other sectors

• OOT consumer spending - sector %s
  • Neighbourhood expansion dents out-of-town in grocers' mix

• OOT sales - by sector
  • Downturn in big ticket spending causes furniture & floorcoverings, electricals, and DIY spending to slip

• OOT space - sector breakdown
  • Portfolio consolidation forces space declines in weaker sectors

• Year-on-year change % in total OOT space
  • OOT space to recover as economic upturn brings new developments

• OOT store numbers - sector breakdown
  • General merchandisers and grocers overtake store numbers in slimmed down furniture market

• Year-on-year change % in overall OOT store numbers
  • Numbers to recover as developers aim to add space

• Average store size - by sector
  • Average store size rises as some retailers aspire to larger stores

• Clothing & footwear
  • Out-of-town space performs well for clothing & footwear specialists

• DIY & gardening
  • Struggles in a challenging time

• Electricals
  • Market conditions ease as out-of-town space decreases

• Food & grocery
  • Sales densities decline as sales growth cannot support new space

• Furniture & floorcoverings
  • Sector continues to suffer from big ticket woes

• General merchandise
  • OOT pulls shoppers away from town centres

APPENDIX

• Definitions
  • Abbreviations

• Ask the analyst
• Verdict consulting
• Further reading
• Disclaimer

TABLES

• Table: Out-of-town retailers with private equity backing 2012
• Table: Non-out-of-town retailers with private equity backing 2012
• Table: Clothing retailers with private equity backing 2012
• Table: Key retailers shares of out-of-town sales 2007 - 12e
• Table: Key out-of-town retailers total UK retail turnover record 2007 - 12e
• Table: Key out-of-town retailers operating profits 2006 - 11
• Table: Key out-of-town retailers operating margins 2006 - 11
• Table: Key out-of-town retailers total selling space 000sq ft 2007 - 12e
• Table: Key out-of-town retailers store numbers 2007 - 12e
• Table: Top 10 out-of-town retailers by advertising expenditure 2010
• Table: Retail location definitions 2012
• Table: Retail spending by location at current prices 2002 - 12e
• Table: Sales through out-of-town retailers 2002 - 12e
• Table: Sources of growth for out-of-town retailers 2002 - 12e
• Table: Floorspace out-of-town vs all stores 2002 - 12e
• Table: Sales densities by location 2002 - 12e
• Table: Store numbers by location 2002 - 12e
• Table: Out-of-town summary 2005 - 15e
• Table: Out-of-town vs total retail spending 2000 - 15e
• Table: Sales densities by location at current prices 2002 - 12e
• Table: Key out-of-town retailers densities based on overall sales (ex VAT) including online 2006 - 12e
• Table: Superstore/out-of-town sales densities by sector 2000 - 15e
• Table: Percentage of each sector's sales derived via OOT 2001 - 15e
• Table: OOT sales by sector 2001 - 15e
• Table: Out-of-town space by sector 2001 - 15e
• Table: OOT store numbers by sector 2001 - 15e
• Table: Clothing & footwear specialists OOT sales 2002 - 12e
• Table: Clothing & footwear specialists OOT space 2002 - 12e
• Table: Clothing & footwear specialists average OOT sales densities 2002 - 12e
• Table: Clothing & footwear specialists OOT store numbers 2002 - 12e
• Table: DIY and gardening specialists OOT sales 2002 - 12e
• Table: DIY & gardening specialists OOT space 2002 - 12e
• Table: DIY & gardening specialists average OOT sales densities 2002 - 12e
• Table: DIY & gardening specialists OOT store numbers 2002 - 12e
• Table: Electricals specialists OOT sales 2002 - 12e
• Table: Electricals specialists OOT space 2002 - 12e
• Table: Electricals specialists average OOT sales densities 2002 - 12e
• Table: Electricals specialists OOT store numbers 2002 - 12e
• Table: Food & grocery specialists OOT sales 2002 - 12e
• Table: Food & grocery specialists OOT space 2002 - 12e
• Table: Food & grocery specialists average OOT sales densities 2002 - 12e
• Table: Food & grocery specialists OOT store numbers 2002 - 12e
• Table: Furniture & floorcoverings specialists OOT sales 2002 - 12e
• Table: Furniture & floorcoverings specialists OOT space 2002 - 12e
• Table: Furniture & floorcoverings specialists average OOT sales densities 2002 - 12e
• Table: Furniture & floorcoverings specialists OOT store numbers 2002 - 12e
• Table: General merchandise specialists OOT sales 2002 - 12e
• Table: General merchandise specialists OOT space 2002 - 12e
• Table: General merchandise specialists average OOT sales densities 2002 - 12e
• Table: General merchandise specialists OOT store numbers 2002 - 12e

FIGURES

• Figure: Proportion of overall spend through major channels 2005 - 15e
• Figure: Finance offers in ScS, DFS, Furniture Village and Ried Furniture 2012
• Figure: Grocers space 2005, 2010 and 2015e
• Figure: Sunderland retail park proposed development 2013
• Figure: Sainsbury's store coverage 2011
• Figure: Outfit store 2012
• Figure: Positive and negative effects of economic downturn on out-of-town retailers 2012
• Figure: How OOT can overcome barriers in the way of families and older shoppers 2012
• Figure: Strategies for success in out-of-town retail
• Figure: Each key retailer - OOT vs overall sales growth 2012
• Figure: Key out-of-town retailers change in total sales % for financial years ending in 2012e on 2007
• Figure: Key out-of-town retailers y-o-y change in total sales % for financial years ending in 2012
• Figure: Key out-of-town retailers change in total space % for financial years ending in 2012e on 2007
• Figure: Key out-of-town retailers y-o-y change in total space % for financial years ending in 2012
• Figure: Key out-of-town retailers change in total store numbers % in financial year ending in 2012e on 2007
• Figure: Key out-of-town retailers y-o-y change in total store numbers % for financial year ending in 2012
• Figure: Growth of retail sales by location (excluding non-store) 2002 - 12e
• Figure: Share of total retail expenditure by location 2002 - 12e
• Figure: Y-o-y change in retail space by location % 2002 - 12e
• Figure: Y-o-y change in retail store numbers by location % 2002 - 12e
• Figure: Out-of-town proportion of total retail sales 2005, 2010 & 2015e
• Figure: Retail spending growth vs out-of-town 2000 - 15e
• Figure: Out-of-town sales sources of growth 2000 - 15e
• Figure: Sales densities by location 2001 - 12e
• Figure: Change in sales density of key OOT retailers 2012e on 2007
• Figure: Change in sales density of key OOT retailers 2012e on 2011
• Figure: Grocery vs. non-grocery sales 2005 - 15e
• Figure: Grocery vs. non-grocery space 2005 - 15e
• Figure: Grocery vs. non-grocery sales densities 2005 - 15e
• Figure: Change in sales density by sector 2015e on 2010
• Figure: % share of OOT sales by sector 2002, 2007 & 2012e
• Figure: OOT sector sales growth 2002 - 07 and 2007 - 12e
• Figure: % share of OOT space by sector 2002, 2007 & 2012e
• Figure: OOT space growth 2000 - 15e
• Figure: % share of OOT store numbers by sector 2002, 2007 & 2012e
• Figure: New out-of-town store number growth 2000 - 15e
• Figure: Average OOT store size 2002, 2007 & 2012e
• Figure: Clothing & footwear OOT sales growth vs clothing & footwear sales growth in other locations, and OOT sales growth in other sectors 2007 - 12e
• Figure: Clothing & footwear OOT space growth vs clothing & footwear space growth in other locations, and OOT space growth in other sectors 2007 - 12e
• Figure: DIY & gardening OOT sales growth vs DIY & gardening sales growth in other locations, and OOT sales growth in other sectors 2007 - 12e
• Figure: DIY & gardening OOT space growth vs DIY & gardening space growth in other locations, and OOT space growth in other sectors 2007 - 12e
• Figure: Electricals OOT sales growth vs electricals sales growth in other locations, and OOT sales growth in other sectors 2007 - 12e
• Figure: Electricals OOT space growth vs electricals space growth in other locations, and OOT space growth in other sectors 2007 - 12e
• Figure: Food & grocery OOT sales growth vs food & grocery sales growth in other locations, and OOT sales growth in other sectors 2007 - 12e
• Figure: Food & grocery OOT space growth vs food & grocery space growth in other locations, and OOT space growth in other sectors 2007 - 12e
• Figure: Furniture & floorcoverings OOT sales growth vs furniture & floorcoverings sales growth in other locations, and OOT sales growth in other sectors 2007 - 12e
• Figure: Furniture & floorcoverings OOT space growth vs furniture & floorcoverings space growth in other locations, and OOT space growth in other sectors 2007 - 12e
• Figure: General merchandise OOT sales growth vs general merchandise sales growth in other locations, and OOT sales growth in other sectors 2007 - 12e
• Figure: General merchandise OOT space growth vs general merchandise space growth in other locations, and OOT space growth in other sectors 2007 - 12e

「英国の郊外型小売業」は2012年04月16日にバーディクト・リサーチより発行されました。 当レポートはPages: 127で構成され、税抜￥333,028より販売しています。