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市場調査レポート
米国におけるダイエット市場の2008年までの展望：低炭水化物、その他急成長ダイエットの将来的収益機会
The US Diet Market Outlook To 2008: Future profit opportunities for low carb and other fast growth diets
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当商品の販売は、2011年07月19日を持ちまして終了しました。
Abstract
The weight loss industry is a robust and diverse market within the United States, comprising
dozens of eating regimens, dieting support groups, supplements, food products, meal replacements,
books, and videos. As the prevalence of overweight and obesity continue to rise in the United
States, greater numbers of individuals are developing health complications associated with those
conditions, creating an ever-growing market for these services and products. 44% of the population
is actively trying to lose weight. Of the remaining 56%, 32% can be classified as Healthy Eaters,
while the remainder are not particularly concerned with their eating habits.
Table of Contents
Chapter 1 The US Diet Market Landscape 18
- Summary 18
- Introduction 19
- Key findings 19
- Dieting in the United States 20
- Overview 20
- Ever more homogeneous dietary habits and lifestyles 20
- Consumer weight profile 21
- Consumer health profile 22
- Metabolic syndrome 22
- Diabetes 22
- The cyclical nature of dieting 25
- Popular diets by type 25
- Low carb diets 26
- Low fat diets 27
- Other diets 27
- Diet support groups 28
- Individual Dieting 29
- The weight-loss industry 29
- Low carb dieting 30
- The original low carb diet 31
- The Atkins Advantage 31
- Consumer segmentations 32
- Consumer dietary habits by type 32
- Dedicated low carb lifestylers 33
- Flexible low carb lifestylers 34
- Consumer perception of the low carb lifestyle 35
- Conclusions 36
Chapter 2 Drivers and Dynamics of The Diet
- Market 38
- Summary 38
- Introduction 38
- Key findings 39
- Market size 39
- Market segments 40
- Snacks 40
- Soft Drinks 42
- Dairy 43
- Bakery 45
- Confectionery 46
- Prepared meals 47
- Strengths and weaknesses of the low carb trend 49
- The strengths... 49
- Manufacturer survival 49
- Prevalence of flexible dieters 49
- Scientific findings do not refute low carb benefits 50
- A new alternative 50
- ...and the weaknesses 50
- Market saturation 50
- Potential lack of scientific support 50
- Decrease in efficacy and/or success stories 50
- Conclusions 51
Chapter 3 The US Diet Consumer 54
- Summary 54
- Introduction 54
- Key findings 55
- Consumer profile 55
- Segmentation by weight 55
- Motivated to get thin 56
- Consumer survey 57
- Dieting population profile 57
- Consumer behavior 59
- Willpower diminishes throughout the day 59
- Only Low Carb Dieters interested in carbohydrate intake 60
- True Low Carb Dieters are few and far between 62
- Understanding consumers food choices 62
- Understanding consumers drink choices 64
- Consumer drivers 66
- Personal relationships drive consumers diet choices 66
- Taste and price drive the consumer 67
- Taste is a barrier for attracting new low carb consumers 69
- Conclusions 69
Chapter 4 Competitive Analysis of Major
- Low Carb Brands 72
- Summary 72
- Introduction 72
- Key findings 73
- Manufacturer identification 73
- Low carb manufacturers 73
- Larger companies weigh in on the low carb trend 74
- Competition among low carb manufacturers 76
- Changing the landscape of the low carb market 80
- Major CPGs manufacturers entering the market: a lesson from organics 81
- Low carb new product development: diversifying products 82
- Low carb as a scapegoat 82
- Case Study: Atkins Nutritionals 83
- A history of Atkins Nutritionals 83
- Atkins food and drink products 85
- Partnerships and the pyramid 86
- The future for Atkins 86
- Case Study: Keto Foods 87
- Reformulating favorite foods 88
- Research and development are key business areas 89
- Future growth 89
- Industry survey 90
- The low carb market is an opportunity for growth 90
- Manufacturers forecasts for low carb diets 91
- Comparison to the low fat trend 92
- Future market drivers 94
- Endorsements and brand awareness 96
- Drivers contributing to product success 96
- The low carb marketplace 97
- Price premiums are high 97
- Price premiums as a barrier to market growth 99
- Low carb ingredients and product formulation 99
- Marketing a low carb product 101
- Conclusions 101
Chapter 5 Medical & Regulatory
- Environment 104
- Summary 104
- Introduction 104
- Key findings 105
- The science behind dieting 105
- The low fat and low carb theories 106
- The low fat theory 106
- The low carb theory 107
- The low fat and low carb trends 108
- The low fat trend 108
- The low carb trend 109
- The glycemic index 109
- Low carbohydrate studies 110
- Short-term studies 111
- Long term studies 113
- Government 114
- The Food Guide Pyramid 114
- Atkins and the Food Pyramid 115
- The FDA and nutrition labels 115
- Low Carb Claims and Nutrition Labels 118
- Regulating organics 119
- Conclusions 120
Chapter 6 The Future of Low Carb Dieting
- and Beyond 122
- Summary 122
- Introduction 122
- Key findings 123
- Rapid growth of low carb bakery, snacks and prepared meals 123
- The rapid growth of the bakery category 124
- Guilt-free snacking 125
- Low carb frozen meals will appeal to busy consumers 126
- Increased market consolidation 126
- Distribution and shelf space 127
- Market consolidation 127
- The importance of "Buy-in" of Healthful Eaters and healthcare referrals 128
- Internalizing the low carb message 128
- Medical factors 129
- The next "big thing" - five years away 129
- Industry and consumer components necessary for significant trends 130
- Increased media coverage of low carb weight loss 131
- High levels of controversy 132
- A charismatic spokesman 134
- Development of ingredients and improved product taste 135
- A mature food and beverage industry 136
- The "coolness" factor 137
- The promise of a quick fix 139
- Scientific logic that makes sense to the layman 140
Chapter 7 Low Carb Diet Growth Strategies 142
- Summary 142
- Introduction 142
- Key findings 143
- Improve the taste, competitiveness and appeal 143
- Product formulation and taste 143
- Reducing price premiums 144
- Target evening eating occasions 145
- Brand building and preparation for strategic alliances and acquisitions 145
- Small, niche low carb companies 145
- Large CPG manufacturers 146
- Education through marketing partnerships 146
- Create wider appeal through marketing campaigns 146
- Partner with healthcare professionals 147
- Develop community outreach programs 148
- Conclusions 149
List of Figures
- Figure 3.1: US population by BMI category, by gender, %, 2002-2007 56
- Figure 3.2: Ranked meal occasion by ease of diet adherence, by consumer group, % (where 1 =
easiest and 6 = hardest) 59
- Figure 3.3: Consumption changes made when attempting weight loss/maintenance, by consumer group,
% respondents who answered "always" 61
- Figure 3.4: Consumption changes when attempting to lose/maintain weight, by food category, %
respondents 64
- Figure 3.5: Consumption changes when attempting to lose/maintain weight, by drinks category, %
respondents 65
- Figure 4.6: Low carb beer and malternative entrants, 2004 77
- Figure 4.7: "Mid-carb" soda entrants, 2004 78
- Figure 4.8: Reduced-carb orange juices, by brand, 2004 79
- Figure 4.9: Atkins food product examples, 2004 84
- Figure 4.10: Atkins-certified co-venture examples, 2004 86
- Figure 4.11: Keto food product examples, 2004 88
- Figure 4.12: Industry perception of low carb trend, by importance, % respondents 91
- Figure 4.13: Manufacturer opinion of low fat and low carb consumers and purchases now and in
five years, % respondents 94
- Figure 4.14: Industry perceptions of low carb consumer drivers, by importance, % respondents 95
- Figure 5.15: Glycemic index certification symbol 110
- Figure 5.16: Proposed changes to nutrition labels, 2004 118
- Figure 6.17: Market size, by category, $bn, 2003-2008 125
- Figure 6.18: USDA Food Guide Pyramid, 2003 132
- Figure 6.19: Atkins Food Guide Pyramid, 2004 134
- Figure 6.20: Consumer groups and product attributes, by degrees of "coolness" 138
List of Tables
- Table 1.1: Prevalence of overweight and obesity, 2002-2007 21
- Table 1.2: Prevalence of diabetes, by type, (million), 2003-2009 24
- Table 1.3: Risk factors associated with being overweight and obese 24
- Table 1.4: Breakdown of the weight-loss industry, by category 30
- Table 1.5: Consumer segmentation, by dieting/lifestyle type 33
- Table 1.6: Consumer perception of the low carb diet, by "agree completely" and
"agree somewhat," by consumer group (% respondents) 35
- Table 2.7: U.S. low carb food and beverage market value, by category, ($m), 1998-2008 40
- Table 2.8: Growth of low carb snacks market, ($m), 1998-2008 40
- Table 2.9: Low carb product introductions, snacks category 42
- Table 2.10: Growth of low carb soft drinks market, ($m), 1998-2008 42
- Table 2.11: Growth of low carb dairy market, ($m), 1998-2008 43
- Table 2.12: Low carb product introductions, dairy category 44
- Table 2.13: Growth of low carb bakery market, ($m), 1998-2008 45
- Table 2.14: Low carb product introductions, bakery category 46
- Table 2.15: Growth of low carb confectionery market, ($m), 1998-2008 46
- Table 2.16: Low carb product introductions, confectionery category 47
- Table 2.17: Growth of low carb prepared meals market, ($m), 1998-2008 47
- Table 2.18: Low carb product introductions, prepared meals category 48
- Table 3.19: Main reason for dieting, by gender, % respondents 57
- Table 3.20: Consumer groups, by age, % respondents 58
- Table 3.21: Consumption changes made when attempting weight loss/maintenance, by consumer group,
% respondents who answered "always" 60
- Table 3.22: Consumption changes when attempting to lose/maintain weight, by food category, %
respondents 63
- Table 3.23: Consumption changes when attempting to lose/maintain weight, by drinks category, %
respondents 65
- Table 3.24: Ranked influencing factors in dieting choice, by consumer group, (where 1 =
strongest and 8 = weakest) 66
- Table 3.25: Ranked purchasing priorities, by consumer group (where 1 = strongest and 10 =
weakest) 68
- Table 4.26: Low carb companies and respective product categories, 2003 74
- Table 4.27: Multinational companies and respective new low carb product introductions, through
June 2004 75
- Table 4.28: New product introductions, #, 1999-2003 82
- Table 4.29: Manufacturer opinion of low fat and low carb consumers and purchases now and in five
years, % respondents 93
- Table 4.30: Industry perceptions of low carb consumer drivers, by importance, % respondents 95
- Table 4.31: Ranking of manufacturer vs. consumer preferences 97
- Table 4.32: Low carb price premium examples, 2004 98
- Table 4.33: Sweetener substitute glossary 100
- Table 5.34: Average reduction in weight and heart disease, and dropout rate, by specific diet, %
112
- Table 5.35: Pounds lost, by time on diet, low carb vs. conventional dieting, 2003 113
- Table 5.36: FDA guidelines 116
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