当レポートでは、オーストラリアにおけるモバイルブロードバンド、モバイルデータ市場、モバイルメディア市場について調査分析し、2012年〜2013年の動向のほか、利用、発展、収益、モバイルインターネットコンテンツなど、市場の動向について検証し、主要MNOに関する分析も含めて、概略以下の構成でお届けいたします。
Abstract
Publication Overview
This annual publication provides the reader with a thorough overview of the
mobile broadband, mobile data market and the mobile media market in Australia
as we moved into the 2012/13 year. The publication provides important analysis
of the market and trends in usage, developments, revenue, mobile internet
content and provides information on the developments of the various mobile
network operators.
Topics covered include:
- Mobile broadband - statistical overview;
- Mobile broadband - forecasts, market issues;
- Mobile media - statistics, providers, apps, portals and mobile TV;
- Handset market - including smartphones.
Researchers:- Paul Budde, Stephen McNamara Current publication date:- July
2012 (12th Edition)
Executive Summary
Mobile broadband ups the speed and user base with LTE
Broadband is the facilitator for a range of services that are of great value
to governments, businesses and people in rural and regional areas as well as
in the cities. Mobile broadband can also increase this value even further.
With around 5.5 million mobile broadband subscribers in Australia, the release
of a 4G network by one mobile network operator saw uptake of more than 300,000
services in just over half a year.
Just as BuddeComm previously predicted, the use of Long-term evolution (LTE)
mobility broadband would boost the uptake of mobile broadband usage and this
is also likely to expand further as the National Broadband Network (NBN) use
of wireless services commence.
Australia will see the NBN connect around 7% of all premises in the country to
fixed-wireless networks. We provide details on the nearly 500,000 premises
that will receive this fixed-wireless service, as those covered by it will be
beyond reach of fast-fibre. The first fixed-wireless release sites are under
construction with this network finalised by end-2015. The satellite services
are currently coming from an interim satellite service and then will be
delivered from two new KA-band satellites at the cost of around $2 billion.
Even though the cost of mobile broadband is still markedly expensive as
compared to fixed broadband, in the publication we provide information on the
increased usage that is being led by smartphones. With around 60% of
smartphone users using a mobile phone to access the internet and then make
product purchases, usage will only continue upwards as more users take on the
use of mobile broadband.
As the smartphone sector in Australia sits in mid-2012, the Android market has
now overtaken the iPhone as the user's choice as the top smartphone. Nokia,
Samsung and HTC are all seeing their market share change and with the 4G
handset market about to expand as users come off plans, the changing of the
brands may see applications and data usage increase once again. We will see
the smartphone market continue to increase to more than 60% penetration by
end-2012.
In this publication we also provide a brief global overview of the mobile
broadband market. We update information on the rapid development of low-cost
smartphones that are projected to go below $50 soon, and with tablets now
already under $200, meaning that many people in the world who are not PC
literate or have the ability to buy a PC - will be able to experience
broadband internet for the first time through a mobile phone.
Traditionally SMS was the 'cash cow' for the mobile network operators. But in
2012 many mobile phone plans now also include free access to social networking
sites or low cost using of over-the-top messaging services. So we are seeing
mobile subscribers using iMessage and other apps including mobile email to
keep connected and communicate, rather than the previous operator only method
of SMS.
But SMSs also provide instant user attention as opposed to an email that may
be unread for a number of hours or days. So SMSs will remain part of the
culture. In this publication we provide an overview of the trends in SMS data
revenue and messages with statistical background information.
The availability of mobile broadband has seen social networking boom on the
move. So as we need a fast upload speed to allow the 35% of Australians who
use Facebook on their mobile. The high uptake of these mobile service will
also see more and more users adding to the mobile broadband user base.
The mobile broadband infrastructure in Australia at times often becomes data
saturated and to ease the congestion the mobile network operators are
progressively updating, expanding rolling out faster networks to support the
data explosion. Two of MNOs have long-term evolution networks, Telstra
deployed LTE commercially with Optus still in trial mode as at mid-2012, but
with plans for the rollout by year end.
Meanwhile Vodafone has been updating its 3G network infrastructure and is
expected to move into LTE area sometime in 2013. The Vodafone and Optus
network sharing agreement that is to take effect in 2013 will allow greater
coverage by these MNOs and may put pressure on Telstra users to return to
these operators.
The mobile apps, mobile media and PMS markets are profiled in the publication
with apps-based mobile content and communication services. The MNOs portals
are profiled together with a snapsot of the major mobile media providers.
Market highlights:
- BuddeComm estimates that mobile broadband users will exceed six million by
end-2012 with growth rates still over 10%.
- Facebook user growth is now slowing down with more than 11 million
Australians with accounts.
- Meanwhile around 35% of Facebook use is on a mobile device.
- Smartphone penetration now exceeds 50% penetration rate, with 60%
estimated by end-2012.
- Revenue from SMS still continues to be the largest component of mobile
data revenue for all the major mobile operators in Australia in 2012, but its
share and value is decreasing.
- Mobile broadband ARPU starts falling for 3G services.
Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may
not be for the current year.
Table of Contents
1. The Market in 2012
- 1.1 High demand for mobile broadband
- 1.2 Mobile broadband - killer app for FttH
- 1.3 Watch out for the next WiFi wave
- 1.4 Spectrum key to broadband utility
- 1.5 Overview of trends and developments
- 1.5.1 Mobile broadband
- 1.5.2 Mobile subscribers
- 1.5.3 Mobile voice
- 1.5.4 Network termination rates lowered may drive mobile competition
- 1.6 Subscriber statistics
- 1.7 Mobile communications - revenue overview and statistics
2. Statistical Overview and Forecasts
- 2.1 Market overview and analysis
- 2.1.1 Growth slowly tapering off
- 2.1.2 Infrastructure to drive further expansion
- 2.1.3 Applications drive the market
- 2.1.4 Spectrum shortage
- 2.1.5 Mobile broadband revolution set to change the industry
- 2.1.6 Hardware drives applications
- 2.1.7 Mobile broadband to drive structural change
- 2.1.8 User prices remain high
- 2.1.9 Use of Unified Communications increasing
- 2.1.10 Smartphones driving data usage
- 2.2 Wireless broadband market statistics
- 2.2.1 Mobile broadband subscribers
- 2.2.2 Mobile broadband revenues
- 2.2.3 Mobile broadband market
- 2.2.4 Fixed wireless broadband market
- 2.3 Forecasts and other developments
- 2.3.1 Watch out for the next WiFi wave
- 2.3.2 Mobile broadband boom the killer app FttH
- 2.3.3 4G Wireless National Broadband Network (NBN) for regional Australia
- 2.3.4 Fixed/mobile call market
- 2.3.5 Revenue forecasts
3. Spectrum Key to Broadband Utility
- 3.1 Introduction
- 3.2 City/slum developments in emerging economies
- 3.2.1 Mobile broadband boosting rural economies
- 3.3 Mobile broadband is national infrastructure (not just telecoms)
- 3.3.1 Spectrum key to social and economic development
- 3.4 Spectrum harmonisation and infrastructure-sharing
- 3.5 Mobile broadband will stimulate investments in fibre networks
- 3.6 Competition issue
- 3.7 A comprehensive infrastructure plan is essential
4. National Broadband Network - Fixed Wireless and Satellite
- 4.1 Introduction
- 4.2 NBN Co's Fixed Wireless Network
- 4.2.1 NBN Co buys spectrum from Austar
- 4.2.2 Construction plan
- 4.2.3 Visionstream to construct the network
- 4.2.4 NBN facilitates wireless competition
- 4.2.5 Fixed wireless rollouts
- 4.2.6 Other developments
- 4.3 The NBN Satellite Network
- 4.3.1 Introduction
- 4.3.2 Ka-band satelittes
- 4.3.3 Satellite speeds
- 4.3.4 Interim regional and remote satellite services
- 4.3.5 Ground station gateways
- 4.4 Analyses
- 4.4.1 Why wireless broadband is no alternative to FttH
5. HSPA and LTE developments
- 5.1 High-speed mobile networks
- 5.1.1 High-speed packet access (HSPA)
- 5.1.2 Long-term evolution (LTE)
- 5.2 Australian mobile broadband operators
- 5.2.1 Optus
- 5.2.2 Telstra
- 5.2.3 Vodafone Hutchison Australia (VHA)
- 5.3 Mobile broadband market
- 5.3.1 Overview and analysis
- 5.3.2 Data growth
- 5.3.3 Mobile industry gets some spectrum certainty
- 5.3.4 Neutral broadband connections for HSDPA
- 5.4 Mobile broadband
- 5.4.1 Applications overview
6. Surveys and Statistics
- 6.1 Introduction
- 6.2 Telstra surveys
- 6.2.1 The Grey Nomads and downagers are technology troopers
- 6.2.2 Increased demand for mobile working
- 6.3 Australian Mobile Phone Lifestyle Index
- 6.3.1 Australian Interactive Media Industry Association (AIMIA) - 7th
survey - 2011
- 6.3.2 Mobile phones and operators
- 6.3.3 Mobile phone usage
- 6.3.4 Smartphone users use more email and data
- 6.3.5 Content and services accessed - 2010 - 2011
- 6.3.6 Information services
- 6.3.7 Advertising on the mobile phone
- 6.3.8 M-commerce
- 6.4 Mobile data usage increasing overall
- 6.5 Smartphones are increasing takeup of media services
- 6.6 Speeds increasing only slightly by 2012
- 6.7 Revenue statistics
- 6.7.1 Average revenue per user (ARPU)
- 6.7.2 Mobile data revenue
7. Mobile Media Market
- 7.1 Major Providers
- 7.1.1 Mobile operators
- 7.1.2 Service providers
- 7.2 PSMS Portals and Apps
- 7.2.1 The market in 2012
- 7.2.2 Previous analyses (updated in 2011)
- 7.2.3 Smart phone apps market
- 7.2.4 Consumer protection
- 7.2.5 Key players in the premium rate SMS (PSMS) market
- 7.2.6 PSMS revenues
- 7.3 Mobile TV
- 7.3.1 What is mobile TV?
- 7.3.2 Market overview and analysis
- 7.3.3 Cloud-based mobile TV
- 7.3.4 Major players
- 7.3.5 Regulation
- 7.3.6 Technology platforms
- 7.4 SMS - Overview & Statistics
- 7.4.1 Background information
- 7.4.2 SMS market overview
- 7.4.3 Overview of SMS services in Australia
- 7.4.4 Usage statistics
8. M-Commerce Developments and Projects
- 8.1 Overview and analysis of m-commerce in Australia
- 8.1.1 Introduction
- 8.1.2 Only small usage takeup
- 8.1.3 Impacting issues
- 8.1.4 Testing the models
- 8.1.5 Closed systems
- 8.1.6 Research indicates consumers wary of telcos for payment options
- 8.1.7 Apps need m-payments
- 8.2 M-payment projects and services
- 8.2.1 mHITs
- 8.2.2 Near Field Communications (NFC) overview
- 8.2.3 Contactless payments
- 8.3 Mobile banking (m-banking)
- 8.3.1 Trends and Developments in mobile payments - 2012
- 8.3.2 M-banking overview
- 8.3.3 Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)
- 8.3.4 Australia and New Zealand Bank (ANZ)
- 8.3.5 NAB
- 8.3.6 Westpac
- 8.3.7 Public transport
- 8.4 Other m-commerce developments
- 8.4.1 Background information
- 8.4.2 e-Insurance
- 8.4.3 SMS m-commerce
9. Handset Market
- 9.1 Market overview - mid-2012
- 9.1.1 Trends in mobile handset market
- 9.1.2 Service provider-driven market
- 9.1.3 Replacement market
- 9.1.4 Android sales overtake iPhone but ARPU went down in 2011
- 9.1.5 Smartphone app gives shoppers access to great deals
- 9.2 Predictions towards 2013 and beyond
- 9.2.1 Smartphone uptake passes the tipping point
- 9.2.2 Smartphones driving data usage
- 9.2.3 Tablets
- 9.3 Handset statistics
- 9.3.1 Shipments
- 9.3.2 Handset recycling
- 9.3.3 Handset supplier market shares
- 9.4 Analysis
- 9.4.1 Overview
- 9.4.2 Apple and Google - hijacking the mobile operators
- 9.4.3 Mobile vendors set to lose the proprietary battle
- 9.4.4 Mid-tier mobile phones to decline
- 9.4.5 Rise of smartphones
- 9.5 Market surveys
- 9.5.1 Overview
- 9.5.2 Smartphones lead to higher data spend
- 9.5.3 Smartphone users are action buyers
- 9.5.4 Tablet uptake and usage increases
- 9.5.5 Phone usage for no phone activities increasing
- 9.5.6 Smartphone users are increasing
- 9.5.7 iPhone takes out top spot globally
- 9.5.8 Smartphone usage
- 9.5.9 Smartphones and internet usage
- 9.6 Safety and security issues
- 9.6.1 Cyber bullying and use of mobile phones by children
- 9.6.2 Children and the internet
- 9.6.3 Mobile security
- 9.6.4 Mobile phones - malware, trojans and viruses
10. Glossary of Abbreviations
- Table 1 - Mobile market subscribers, penetration rate and annual change -
2010 - 2012
- Table 2 - Total mobile services market revenue and annual change - 2010 -
2013
- Table 3 - Wireless broadband subscribers by access type and annual change
- 2007 - 2012
- Table 4 - 3G mobile broadband subscribers by mobile network operator -
2007 - 2012
- Table 5 - Estimated mobile broadband data downloaded in Petabytes - 2007 -
2012; 2015
- Table 6 - Estimated mobile broadband revenues and annual change - 2007 -
2012
- Table 7 - Mobile broadband monthly ARPU - 2007 - 2012
- Table 8 - Estimated mobile data revenue revenues by mobile network
operator - 2008 - 2012
- Table 9 - Fixed wireless broadband subscribers by major operator - 2008 -
2012
- Table 10 - WiFi hotspots at its peak in the late 2000s
- Table 11 - Forecast mobile broadband and voice revenues - 2008; 2013; 2018
- Table 12 - Average 3G mobile broadband speed data in Australia - 2008 -
2012
- Table 13 - Average 4G mobile broadband speed data in Australia - 2010 -
2012
- Table 14 - Telstra average mobile broadband revenue per user per month -
2008 - 2012
- Table 15 - Blended mobile data ARPU per customer by operator - 2010 - 2011
- Table 16 - Estimated mobile data revenue by operator - 2009 - 2011
- Table 17 - Overall estimated total mobile data revenue - 2008 - 2013
- Table 18 - Mobile Embrace key financial statistics - 2010 - 2011
- Table 19 - Mobi.moki key financial statistics - 2010 - 2011
- Table 20 - Enero (Photon Group) - key financial parameters - 2010 - 2011
- Table 21 - Enero (Photon Group) - key financial parameters - H12011 -
H12012
- Table 22 - App usage download by selected demographic - 2010 - 2011
- Table 23 - App usage by mobile brand - 2011
- Table 24 - Estimated app usage by selected demographic - 2011
- Table 25 - Estimated app market revenue - 2009 - 2015
- Table 26 - Users who pay for mobile applications by app type - 2010 - 2011
- Table 27 - Mobile premium service complaints by major provider - 2010 -
2011
- Table 28 - Estimated revenues - PSMS market - 2004 - 2012
- Table 29 - Cost of sending a standard SMS by mobile network operator - 2012
- Table 30 - MMS and SMS numbers SMS sent - 2008 - 2011
- Table 31 - Estimated numbers of SMS sent - 2003 - 2012
- Table 32 - Number of Telstra sent SMSs - 2005 - 2012
- Table 33 - The decline in SMS data revenues - 2008 - 2011
- Table 34 - Popularity of contactless payments using smartphones - 2011
-2012
- Table 35 - Australian handset shipments - 2004 - 2012
- Table 36 - Seasonal comparison - Australian shipments per quarter - 2004 -
2011
- Table 37 - Seasonal comparison - Australian shipments per quarter as a
proportion of annual shipments - 2004 - 2011
- Table 38 - Change in Australian shipments per quarter - seasonally
adjusted - 2005 - 2011
- Table 39 - Key recycling indicators - Mobile Muster - 2006 - 2012
- Table 40 - Estimated Australian handset supplier market share - major
suppliers - 2008 - 2011
- Table 41 - Australian 3G handset market - by major operator - 2008 - 2010
- Table 42 - Low-end, mid-tier and high-end mobile device markets -
percentage of units sold - 2007; 2013.
- Table 43 - Payment plan data - 2009 - 2011
- Table 44 - Sale percentage of paid-for applications - 2010 -2011
- Table 45 - Typical weekly usage pattern of a smartphone user - 2009 - 2011
- Table 46 - Customer loyalty with phone OS - % likely to stay with their
existing operating system for next phone purchase
- Table 47 - Use of advanced phone features - % of mobile users who access
rich media and other smartphone features
- Table 48 - Smartphone usage by children in Australia - 2009
- Table 49 - Smartphone users accessing the internet - 2009 - 2011
- Table 50 - Smartphone use of the internet - 2010 - 2011
- Chart 1 - Mobile market subscribers, penetration rate and annual change -
2010 - 2012
- Chart 2 - Total mobile services market revenue and annual change - 2010 -
2013
- Chart 3 - Overview of 3G mobile broadband subscribers by mobile network
operator - 2007 - 2012
- Chart 4 - Overview of estimated mobile broadband data downloaded in
petabytes - 2007 - 2012; 2015
- Chart 5 - Overview of estimated mobile data revenue by mobile network
operator - 2008 - 2012
- Chart 6 - Overview of average 3G mobile broadband speeds - 2008 - 2012
- Chart 7 - Overview of average 4G mobile broadband speeds - 2010 - 2012
- Chart 8 - Overview of use of technology by seniors - 2011
- Chart 9 - Overview of information services used by mobile phone users -
2009 - 2011
- Chart 10 - Overview of Mobi.moki key financial statistics - 2010 - 2011
- Chart 11 - Overview of Mobi.moki long-term share price trending - 2007 -
2012
- Chart 12 - Overview of Australian apps market revenue estimates - 2009 -
2015
- Chart 13 - Overview of estimates of smartphones versus other phones -
2011; 2013; 2015
- Chart 14 - Overview of estimated revenues - PSMS market - 2004 - 2012
- Chart 15 - Overview of PSMS revenue mix of downloads
- Chart 16 - Overview of PSMS estimated market share by operator - 2011
- Chart 17 - Overview of Australian handset shipments - 2004 - 2012
- Chart 18 - Overview of tonnes of mobile equipment collected versus public
awareness - 2006 - 2012
- Chart 19 - Overview of estimated Australian handset supplier market share
- major suppliers - 2008 - 2011
- Chart 20 - Overview of trends in smartphone ownership - 2010 - 2011
- Chart 21 - Overview of cyber bullying information study - 2011
- Exhibit 1 - Dharavi - a city in a city
- Exhibit 2 - Overview of past frequency division duplex (FDD) and TD-LTE
trials
- Exhibit 3 - Key issues for mobility industry
- Exhibit 4 - MOKO.mobi at a glance - 2011
- Exhibit 5 - Enero at a glance - 2012
- Exhibit 6 - Overview of Be.interactive (previously Legion Interactive)
before sale of Be.interactive companies - 2010 - 2011
- Exhibit 7 - Be.interactive clients and partners
- Exhibit 8 - Be.interactive mobile services
- Exhibit 9 - Overview of MessageNet before sale of Be.interactive companies
- 2010 - 2011
- Exhibit 10 - Background information on Information Dialling Services (IDS)
- Exhibit 11 - An overview of Gemalto
- Exhibit 12 - Key national and major smaller players in the PSMS market
- Exhibit 13 - 5th Finger - historical company background information
- Exhibit 14 - Analysis - mobile TV is dead - long live mobile video
- Exhibit 15 - Examples of Mobile TV technologies
- Exhibit 16 - Broadcast Australia DVB-H trials - 2005 - 2009
- Exhibit 17 - Overview of Q-Jumper and Easy Canteen by mHITs
- Exhibit 18 - How appealing are contactless payments - 2011 -2012
