This report is an updated version of our July release on thin-film
photovoltaic modules markets and takes account of tumultuous changes that have
recently occurred in the world economy. The report includes completely revised
market forecasts along with a detailed outlook for the business opportunities
and threats that NanoMarkets expects for TFPV in 2009. Among the issues that
we consider in this report are the impacts of low energy prices on the
business case for TFPV, whether environmental arguments for TFPV will lose
their hold in a recessionary environment, and the impact of the worldwide
construction downturn on the prospects for TFPV.
Also in the report in addition to the quantitative forecasts are assessment of
both high-growth and low-growth scenarios for the next eight years and updated
profiles of the leading suppliers of TFPV solar panels. We also discuss when
the recovery will begin and what the next phase of TFPV market evolution will
look like.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
E.1 Thin Film Photovoltaics: The Opportunities
E.1.1 Applications and Markets
E.1.2 TFPV and Global Energy Markets
E.2 Thin-Film Photovoltaics: The Risks
E.2.1 Will Silicon Abundance Hurt the TFPV Business?
E.2.2 How Long Will the PV Boom Last?
E.2.3 Political Risks
E.2.4 Other Concerns
E.3 Technologies and Materials to Watch
E.3.1 Amorphous Silicon
E.3.2 CIGS
E.3.3 CdTe
E.3.4 GaAs
E.4 Firms to Watch
E.5 Summary of Eight-Year Market Projections
E.5.1 What Has Changed Since Last Year
E.5.2 Summary of Forecasts
Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to Report
1.1.1 Thin-Film Photovoltaics: Lighter and Less Expensive
1.1.2 Where Thin-Film Photovoltaics Fits in the Energy Market
1.1.3 TFPV and Socioeconomic Factors
1.1.4 Materials and Production Issues
1.1.5 Productization
1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report
1.3 Methodology of this Report
1.4 Plan of this Report
Chapter Two: Thin-Film Technology, Materials and Production Strategies
2.1 Evolution and Current State of Photovoltaics Markets
2.2 Thin-Film Silicon
2.2.1 Evolution of Manufacturing Processes for Thin-film Silicon PV
2.2.2 Performance and Expected Improvements
2.2.3 Silicon Inks and Nanocrystalline Silicon
2.2.4 Other Forms of Silicon TFPV
2.2.5 Manufacturers of Amorphous Silicon PV
2.3 CIS/CIGS
2.3.1 Evolution of Manufacturing Processes for CIS/CIGS
2.3.2 Performance and Expected Improvements
2.3.3 Manufacturers of CIGS PV
2.4 CdTe
2.4.1 Evolution of Manufacturing Processes for CdTe
2.4.2 Performance and Expected Improvements
2.4.3 Manufacturers of CdTe PV
2.5 GaAs and Other Compound Semiconductors
2.5.1 Manufacturers of GaAs PV Panels
Chapter Three: Markets for Thin-Film Photovoltaics
3.1 Introduction: Drivers for the Thin-Film PV Market
3.1.1 The Basic Value Proposition of TFPV
3.1.2 TFPV, Geography and Public Policy
3.1.3 Ability to Create New Products
3.2 Large Projects and Central Generation
3.3 Building Integrated Systems
3.3.1 Residential Systems
3.3.2 Commercial and Industrial Buildings
3.3.3 Roofing Systems
3.3.4 FaA§ade Systems
3.3.5 TFPV for BIPV
3.3.6 TFPV and Smart Windows
3.4 Consumer Electronics
3.4.1 PV, TF and Mobile Electronics
3.5 Military and Emergency Applications
3.6 Other Applications
Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts of Thin-Film, Organic and Printable PV
4.1 Forecasting Methodology
4.1.1 Data Sources
4.1.2 Forecasting in a Hyper-Growth Market and Alternative Scenarios
4.1.3 Scope of Forecast
4.1.4 Other Factors Taken into Consideration in the Forecast
4.1.5 How Much Confidence Should You Have in These Forecasts?
4.1.6 Comparison with Previous NanoMarkets Forecasts
4.2 Forecasts of Thin-Film, Organic and Printable PV Markets by
Applications
4.2.1 Forecast of Thin-Film Share of Worldwide PV Market
4.3 Forecasts of Application Revenue Broken Out by Material
4.3.1 a-Si
4.3.2 CIS/CIGS
4.3.3 CdTe
4.3.4 GaAs
4.3.5 Other Materials
4.4 Summaries of Eight-Year Thin-Film Film Market Forecasts by Materials
4.5 Summaries of Eight-Year Thin-Film Film Market Forecasts by Applications
4.6 Forecast of Printed PV Markets by Production Technology
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report
About the Author
List of Exhibits
Exhibit E-1: Claimed Advantages of Thin-Film Approaches
Exhibit E-1: Claimed Advantages of Thin-Film Approaches
Exhibit E-2: Opportunities for TFPV
Exhibit E-3: Summary of Thin-Film Photovoltaics Markets by Material ($
Million)
Exhibit E-4: Summary of Thin-Film Photovoltaics Markets by Application ($
Million)
Exhibit 2-1: List of Materials Used for PV
Exhibit 2-2: Selected Firms Active in the a-Si PV Market
Exhibit 2-3: Manufacturing Approaches Adopted by CIGS Solar Panel Firms
Exhibit 2-4: Firms Active in the CIS/CIGS PV Market
Exhibit 3-1: Top States Installed Grid-Connected PV
Exhibit 3-2: Solar America Cities - 2008
Exhibit 3-3: Selected Solar Panel Products
Exhibit 3-4: Selected Building-Integrated Solar Products
Exhibit 3-5: PV Technology and Applications Matrix for BIPV Products
Exhibit 3-6: Power Consumption and Area of Typical Electronic Devices (1)
Exhibit 3-7: Selected Portable Electronics Products (Consumer and Military)
Exhibit 4-1: Alternative Scenarios for the Evolution of Thin-Film
Photovoltaics
Exhibit 4-2: Eight-Year Forecasts of TFPV Market Penetration
Exhibit 4-3: Worldwide production of a-Si Photovoltaics
Exhibit 4-4: Breakout of a-Si Photovoltaics Revenue by Application ($
Millions)
Exhibit 4-5: Worldwide production of CIS/CIGS Photovoltaics
Exhibit 4-6: Breakout of CIS/CIGS Photovoltaics Revenue by Application ($
Millions)
Exhibit 4-7: Short-Term Expansion of CdTe TFPV Capacity
Exhibit 4-8: Worldwide Production of CdTe Photovoltaics
Exhibit 4-9: Breakout of CdTe Photovoltaics Revenue by Application ($
Million)
Exhibit 4-10: Worldwide Production of GaAs Photovoltaics
Exhibit 4-11: Breakout of GaAs Photovoltaics Revenue by Application ($
Million)
Exhibit 4-12: Worldwide Production of "Other" Thin-Film Photovoltaics (Not
OPV)
Exhibit 4-13: Breakout of Other Thin Film Photovoltaics Revenue by
Application ($ Million)
Exhibit 4-14: Summary of Thin-Film Photovoltaics Markets by Material ($
Million)
Exhibit 4-15: Summary of Thin-Film Photovoltaics Markets by Application ($
Million)
Exhibit 4-16: Printed PV by Material ($ Millions)
Exhibit 4-17: Printed PV by Application ($ Millions)
