This report is an updated version of our Q1-08 release on thin-film and
organic PV materials. This revised report covers thin-film silicon, CIGS, CdTe
and organic materials. It considers the future commercial prospects for
thin-film PV materials in the current economic downturn and includes a new
eight-year forecast of materials consumption of materials by the TFPV
industry, as well as an assessment of what the business prospects at the
materials level of the TFPV value chain are likely to be in 2009. The issues
analyzed include the prospects for commercialization of newer technologies in
an investment environment with a short term focus and how TFPV materials will
fare against conventional silicon materials.
In addition to our quantitative forecasts, we also include other scenarios for
the evolution of TFPV materials that are more bullish and more bearish. We
also discuss what an economic recovery would mean to suppliers of materials
for the TFPV sector.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
E.1 Introduction
E.2 Opportunities of the a-Si Kind
E.3 Other Opportunities in Silicon
E.3.1 Silicon Inks
E.3.2 Silicon Silvers
E.3.3 Other Approaches
E.4 CIS/CIGS
E.5 Cadmium Telluride
E.6 Materials for Organic and Hybrid PV
E.6.1 Dye Sensitized Cells
E.6.2 Quantum Dot and Nanocrystal Solar Cells
E.6.3 Other Research and Development Directions
E.7 ITO and its Substitutes
E.8 Firms to Watch
E.8.1 Inorganic Materials
E.8.2 Organic Materials
E.9 Summary of Forecasts of Photovoltaic Materials
Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to this Report
1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report
1.3 Methodology of this Report
1.4 Plan of this Report
Chapter Two: Silicon Materials for Thin-Film Photovoltaics
2.1 Overview of a-Si-based TFPV
2.1.1 Key Performance and Reliability Characteristics
2.1.2 Cell Structures Used
2.2 Materials and Processes Used for a-Si-based TFPV
2.2.1 Materials Used
2.2.2 Key Manufacturers of Materials for a-Si-based TFPV Materials
2.2.3 Impact and Duration of Silicon Shortage
2.2.4 Environmental and Safety Issues with a-Si TFPV manufacture
2.3 Key Directions for R&D in a-Si Based TFPV Materials
2.4 Niche Directions for Silicon-Based TFPV
2.4.1 Silicon Inks: Innovalight
2.4.2 Silicon Film
2.4.3 Silicon "Slivers"
Chapter Three: CIS/CIGS Materials for Thin-Film Photovoltaics
3.1 Overview of CIS/CIGS-based TFPV
3.1.1 Key Performance and Reliability Characteristics
3.2 Material Formulations and Processes Used for CIS/CIGS-based TFPV
3.2.1 Materials Used
3.2.2 Manufacturing Challenges Using CIS/CIGS-based TFPV Materials
3.2.3 Key Manufacturers of Materials for CIS/CIGS -based TFPV Materials
3.2.4 Environmental and Safety Issues with CIS/CIGS TFPV Manufacture
3.3 Pricing Trends for CIS/CIGS Materials in the TFPV market
3.4 Key Directions for R&D in CIS/CIGS-based TFPV Materials
Chapter Four: CdTe Materials for Thin-Film Photovoltaics
4.1 Overview of CdTe Thin Film Photovoltaics
4.1.1 Key Performance and Reliability Characteristics
4.2 Material Formulations and Processes Used for CdTe-based TFPV
4.2.1 Materials Used
4.2.2 Manufacturing Challenges Using CdTe-based Thin Film Materials
4.2.3 Key Manufacturers of Materials for CdTe-based TFPV Materials
4.2.4 Environmental and Safety Issues with CdTe-based TFPV Materials
4.3 Pricing Trends for CdTe-based TFPV Materials
4.3.1 Tellurium
4.3.2 Cadmium
4.4 Key Directions for R&D in CdTe-based TFPV Materials
Chapter Five: Organic Materials for Thin-Film Photovoltaics
5.1 Overview of Organic and Hybrid-based Photovoltaics
5.1.1 Key Performance and Reliability Characteristics
5.1.2 Cells Structures and Design
5.2 Material Formulations and Processes Used for Organic/Hybrid-based TFPV
5.2.1 Applicable Printing Methods
5.2.2 Evaporation Techniques
5.2.3 Small Molecules
5.2.4 Polymers
5.2.5 DSSCs
5.2.6 Quantum Dot Solar Cells
5.2.7 Manufacturing Challenges Using Organic/Hybrid-Based TFPV Materials
5.3 Key Manufacturers of Materials for Organic/Hybrid-based TFPV Materials
5.3.1 BASF
5.3.2 Evonik Degussa
5.3.3 H.C. Starck
5.3.4 Konarka
5.3.5 Merck/EMD
5.3.6 Plextronics
5.3.7 Sumation
5.4 Environmental and Safety Issues with Organic/Hybrid-Based TFPV
materials
5.5 Pricing Trends for Organic/Hybrid TFPV Materials
5.6 Key Directions for R&D in Organic/Hybrid TFPV Materials
5.6.1 Polymer: Fullerene Bulk Heterojunction Solar Cells
5.6.2 Organic/Nanocrystal Solar Cells
5.6.3 Tandem Cells
Chapter Six: Other Materials Used in Thin-Film Photovoltaics
6.1 Current and Future Use of Compound Semiconductors in TFPV
6.1.1 GaAs
6.1.2 InP
6.1.3 Other Compound Materials
6.2 Nanotubes, Nanowires and Nanorods
6.2.1 Key Firms Advocating Use of Nanomaterials in TFPV
6.2.2 ITO and its Substitutes
6.2.3 Other Inorganic Materials
6.2.4 Organic Materials
6.3 Encapsulation and Barrier Materials
6.3.1 Main Trends in Encapsulation Materials and Barrier coatings
6.3.2 Key Firms Developing Encapsulation and Barrier Materials for TFPV
6.4 Substrates for TFPV
6.4.1 Glass
6.4.2 Metal Foils
6.4.3 Plastic Polysulfone
6.4.4 Other
Chapter Seven: Eight-Year Forecasts of Thin-Film and Organic PV Markets
7.1 Forecasting Methodology
7.1.1 Notes on Growth of the TFPV Industry
7.1.2 Data Sources
7.1.3 Forecasting in a Hyper-Growth Market and Alternative Scenarios
7.2 Forecasts of Thin-Film, Organic and Printable PV Markets by
Applications
7.2.1 Amorphous Silicon
7.2.2 CdTe
7.2.3 CIS/CIGS
7.2.4 Organic and Hybrid Organic/Inorganic Materials
7.3 Summaries of Eight-Year Thin-Film and Organic Materials Market
Forecasts
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report
About the Authors
List of Exhibits
Exhibit E-1: Summary of Materials Used in Thin-Film/Organic PV by Type ($
Millions)
Exhibit 2-1: Manufacturing Approaches Adopted by CIGS Solar Panel Firms
Exhibit 5-1: Organic Solar Cell Manufacturing
Exhibit 5-2: OVPD versus Thermal Evaporation
Exhibit 6-1: Characteristics of Plastic Substrates
Exhibit 7-1: Alternative Scenarios for the Evolution of Thin-Film
Photovoltaics
Exhibit 7-2: Materials Used in a-Si Solar Cells
Exhibit 7-3: Materials Used in CdTe Solar Cells
Exhibit 7-4: Materials Used in CIGS/CIS Solar Cells
Exhibit 7-5: Materials Used in Organic/Hybrid Solar Cells
Exhibit 7-6: Summary of Materials Used in Thin-Film/Organic PV by
Technology
Exhibit 7-7: Summary of Materials Used in Thin-Film/Organic PV by Type ($
Millions)
