This report analyzes and forecasts the rapidly emerging market for OLED
lighting and answers important questions on which segments of the lighting
market will see the first penetration of OLED lighting and when and what are
the likely improvements that we will see in lifetimes, luminance and
efficiency over the coming years. The report provides a thorough examination
of the OLED lighting business and includes an analysis of the latest
manufacturing techniques and developments on the OLED materials front as well
as a detailed applications market analysis of mobile electronics backlighting
the vast general illumination market and large outdoor signage displays. It
also includes government funded R&D projects around the world that are helping
to drive OLED lighting into the market place. Detailed forecasts in volume and
value terms are included.
Key findings:
The unit costs of OLED lights are likely to remain higher than older
general lighting technologies but the extra costs will be offset by improved
OLED lifetimes and efficiencies. During 2008, OLED lifetimes improved from 24
Khrs to 100 Khrs. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Energy now expects OLED
lighting to reach 150 lm/W efficiency in 2012 rather than 2014 as previously
forecast. NanoMarkets believes that these and other improvements in OLEDs will
drive the general illumination market to $2.3 billion in revenues by 2015.
Manufacturing processes for OLEDs have also progressed significantly. GE
and the Fraunhofer Institute have both demonstrated roll-to-roll manufacturing
of OLED lighting which will ultimately lead to significant cost improvements
in OLED fabrication. Low cost printing approaches and new small molecule inks
will also help propel OLEDs into the backlighting market. NanoMarkets expects
that the OLED backlighting market will reach $1.1 billion by 2015. And while
the first OLED lighting panels are quite small, the recent scaling up of
factories in Asia to build large OLED displays will certainly benefit the
manufacturing infrastructure for OLED lighting and lead to larger panels
within a few years.
The flat and flexible format presented by OLEDs creates an opportunity to
design high-value added lighting fixtures with an appeal to upscale consumers
and especially architects. During 2008, lighting designer Ingo Maurer
introduced the world' s first OLED "function table light" and researchers at GE
are targeting lighted curtains and lighted wallpaper. By 2015, NanoMarkets
projects that sales of OLED architectural and specialist industrial lighting
will reach $1.9 billion.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
E.1 Introduction
E.1.1 OLEDs vs. ILEDs in the Lighting Market
E.1.2 OLED' s Display Opportunities vs. OLED Lighting Opportunities
E.2 Summary of Opportunities for OLED Lighting
E.2.1 Backlighting
E.2.2 Other Low-End Applications
E.2.3 General-Purpose Lighting
E.2.4 Architectural Lighting
E.2.5 Signage
E.2.6 OLED Lighting in Healthcare
E.2.7 Vehicular Lighting
E.2.8 Other Applications
E.3 Competing Technologies
E.3.1 EL Lighting
E.3.2 E-Paper
E.3.3 CNT Emission
E.4 Firms to Watch in OLED Lighting
E.4.1 United States
E.4.2 Europe
E.4.3 Asia
E.5 Summary of Market Forecasts
Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to This Report
1.1.1 Are We There Yet?
1.1.2 Heading Off in Many Directions at Once
1.1.3 How do we Get There?
1.2 Goal and Scope of this Report
1.3 Methodology and Information Sources for this Report
1.4 Plan of This Report
Chapter Two: Technology Trends and Developments
2.1 OLEDs and Lighting
2.2 Parameters
2.2.1 Brightness
2.2.2 Color Quality
2.2.3 Efficiency
2.2.4 Lifetime
2.2.5 Interrelationships of Parameters
2.2.6 Transparency
2.3 Materials and Structures
2.3.1 Monomers and Polymers
2.3.2 OLED Device Structures
2.3.3 Light Emitting Materials
2.3.4 Charge Manipulation Materials
2.3.5 Anode Materials
2.3.6 Cathode Materials
2.3.7 Encapsulation and Other Materials
2.4 Metrics and Milestones
2.4.1 Efficiency
2.4.2 Pushing the Efficiency Envelope
2.4.3 Lifetime
2.4.4 White OLEDs and Differential Aging
2.4.5 Two-Component White
2.5 Manufacturing Issues
2.5.1 Alternative Technologies
2.5.2 Small-Molecule Solutions
2.5.3 Polymer Activity
2.5.4 Going Roll-to-Roll
2.6 Flexible Lighting
2.6.1 Challenges
2.6.2 Recent Activity
2.7 Key Points Made in this Chapter
Chapter Three: Applications for OLED Lighting
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Solid-State Lighting
3.3 General-Purpose Lighting
3.3.1 Incumbent Technologies
3.3.2 The ILED Reality
3.3.3 The OLED Vision
3.4 Architectural Lighting
3.5 Backlighting
3.5.1 ILEDS Blaze the Backlight Trail
3.5.2 The OLED Value Proposition
3.5.3 Backlight Development Activity
3.6 Signage
3.7 Industrial Lighting
3.8 Healthcare Lighting
3.9 Vehicular Lighting
3.10 Novelty Applications
3.11 Prospects for Flexible OLED Products
3.12 The Competitive Picture
3.12.1 ILEDs
3.12.2 ILEDs and OLEDs Head to Head
3.12.3 Thick-Film Electroluminescent (EL) Lamps
3.12.4 E-Paper Lighting
3.12.5 Field-Effect Devices (FEDs)
3.13 Key Points Made in this Chapter
Chapter Four: Company and Project Profiles
4.1 Add-Vision
4.2 Canon/Tokki
4.3 Dai Nippon Printing
4.4 Dainippon Screen
4.5 DuPont
4.6 Fraunhofer
4.7 General Electric
4.8 Idemitsu Kosan
4.9 Kodak
4.10 Konica-Minolta
4.11 Lumiotec
4.12 Novaled
4.13 OLED-T
4.14 Osram/Siemens
4.15 Philips
4.16 Sumitomo/CDT/Sumation
4.17 Thorn Lighting
4.18 Toppan Forms
4.19 Toppan Printing
4.20 Universal Display
4.21 U.S. Government-Funded Projects
4.21.1 U.S. Department of Energy
4.22 European Projects
4.22.1 Photonics21
4.22.2 OLLA
4.22.3 OLED100.EU
4.22.4 FlexiDis
4.22.5 Fast2Light
4.22.6 CombOLED
4.22.7 Other EU Projects
4.23 German Government Funded Projects
4.23.1 OPAL
4.23.2 CARO
4.23.3 Rollex
4.24 U.K. Government-Funded Projects
4.25 Asian Government-Funded Programs
Chapter Five: Eight Year-Forecasts of Organic and Printable Lighting
5.1 Forecasting Methodology
5.1.1 Pricing: Issues and Assumptions
5.1.2 Penetration: Issues and Assumptions
5.1.3 Sources of Information and Scope of Forecast
5.1.4 How Much Confidence Should You Have in These Forecasts?
5.1.5 Comparison with Previous NanoMarkets Forecasts
5.2 Backlighting
5.3 General-Purpose Lighting
5.4 Architectural and Specialized Industrial Lighting
5.5 Vehicular Lighting
5.6 Signage
5.7 Summary of Market Forecasts
5.8 Printing, Manufacturing and Materials
Appendix A: Acronym Guide
Appendix B: DOE/EERE Awards for OLED Lighting (2000-2008)
Appendix C : European OLED Projects
About the Author
List of Exhibits
Exhibit E-1: Summary of OLED Lighting Markets ($ Millions)
Exhibit 2-1: Evolving Requirements for General Lighting (2002-2020)
Exhibit 2-2: Next Generation Lighting Industry Alliance 2008
Exhibit 2-3: Diffuse Lighting Technology Roadmap
Exhibit 2-4: Metrics of Illuminance
Exhibit 2-5: CIE Chromaticity Chart
Exhibit 2-6: OLLA 15 x 15-cm Lighting Tile
Exhibit 2-7: OLED Efficiency Goals
Exhibit 2-8: OLED Brightness vs. Lifetime*
Exhibit 2-9: OLED Brightness vs. Efficiency
Exhibit 2-10: Simple OLED Device Structure
Exhibit 2-11: White OLED for Signage
Exhibit 2-12: Complex OLED Device Structure
Exhibit 2-13: Early Small-Molecule RGB Set
Exhibit 2-14: Red+ Green+ Blue=White
Exhibit 2-15: Flexible OLED with Printed Cathode
Exhibit 2-16: Efficiency in the OLED Lighting Chain
Exhibit 2-17: OLED Efficiency Evolves: A Sampling of Small-Molecule
Materials/Devices
Exhibit 2-18: OLED Efficiency Evolves: White Polymer Example
Exhibit 2-19: OLED Lifetime Evolves: A Sampling of Small-Molecule
Materials/Devices
Exhibit 2-20: OLED Lifetime Evolves: A Sampling of Polymer
Materials/Devices
Exhibit 2-21: Development Areas and Goals 2002
Exhibit 2-22: Development Areas and Goals 2008
Exhibit 2-23: Turnkey OLED Manufacturing System
Exhibit 2-24: GE R2R-Manufactured OLED Panels
Exhibit 2-25: Rollex R2R Manufacturing System for Organic Lights and Solar
Cells
Exhibit 3-1: Power Drain by Lighting Technology (at 700-900 lumen
brightness)
Exhibit 3-2: CFL vs. Incandescent (power dissipated for equivalent
brightness)
Exhibit 3-3: ILEDs vs Conventional Lighting Technologies
Exhibit 3-4: ILED Ceiling Fixture
Exhibit 3-5: ILED String of Light
Exhibit 3-6: OLED Lamps vs Competing Technologies
Exhibit 3-7: OLED Sheets of Light
Exhibit 3-8: OLED Lighting Tiles
Exhibit 3-9: OLED Lamp
Exhibit 3-10: ILED "Contour" Light
Exhibit 3-11: CCFL vs. Other Lighting Technologies
Exhibit 3-12: Backlight Technologies Compared
Exhibit 3-13: ILED Side-lighting Mechanism
Exhibit 3-14: ILED-Backlighted Sign
Exhibit 3-15: ILED Tee Shirts
Exhibit 3-16: ILED Fixture Heat Sink Side
Exhibit 4-1: Next Generation Lighting Industry Alliance
Exhibit 4-2: DOE SSL Goals: A Twenty-Year Trek?
Exhibit 4-3: Roadblocks to Solid-State Lighting
Exhibit 4-4: SSL Project Funding and Technology Split
Exhibit 4-5: SSL Funding Breakdown by Recipient Type
Exhibit 4-6: DOE OLED Awards by Year
Exhibit 4-7: Example OLED Funding by Technology Area
Exhibit 4-8: DOE OLED Milestones
Exhibit 4-9: NEDO OLED Partners
Exhibit 5-1: Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Backlights for LCD Displays
Exhibit 5-2: Summary of OLED Backlight Markets ($ Millions)
Exhibit 5-3: Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Lighting for General Illumination
Exhibit 5-4: Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Lighting for Architectural and
Specialized Industrial Lighting
Exhibit 5-5: Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Lighting for Vehicular Lighting
Exhibit 5-6: Eight-Year Forecasts of OLED Signage
Exhibit 5-7: Summary of OLED Lighting Markets by Application ($ Millions)
Exhibit 5-8: Summary of OLED Lighting Markets by Manufacturing and
Material ($ Millions)
