将来の薄膜および有機太陽電池の生産動向

The Future of Thin-Film and Organic Photovoltaics Manufacturing

発行	NanoMarkets
出版日	2008年09月	商品コード	66967
ページ情報	英文 128 Pages
価格	US$ 595 換算 ¥ 47,879 (税抜) PDF By E-mail - Advanced User License (5 users) US$ 995 換算 ¥ 80,067 (税抜) PDF By E-mail - Group Version (10 users) US$ 1,495 換算 ¥ 120,302 (税抜) PDF By E-mail - Enterprise Version (Company Wide)

原文目次

Abstract

Summary

The rapid and recent commercialization of thin-film and organic PV has automatically put the spotlight on manufacturing issues. There are many different approaches being used today from traditional sputtering to avant-garde functional printing approaches. In some cases the old and the new are combined in the same fabrication plant. Some solar panel firms are going with a turnkey plant supplied by a large equipment manufacturer. Others are building their own plants from scratch.

With so much diversity and change in this field, NanoMarkets believes that the time is right for this new report which surveys the manufacturing of thin-film PV (TFPV) and organic PV (OPV.) One goal of this report is to analyze the underlying performance of the plants built to date and to both understand where the challenges are and where the solutions to these challenges may be coming from. Another goal is to forecast the aggregate capacity of TFPV and OPV plants that are currently being built throughout the world or likely to be built in the near future. A third is to project the expenditures of TFPV firms on production equipment over an eight year period.

One question that this report deals with specifically is the thorny question as to how important the future role of printing will be to the PV sector and which equipment firms are having success selling into this sector. We also discuss such matters as the tradeoffs between low manufacturing costs and cell efficiencies, the importance of economies of scale, integration of manufacturing facilities, approaches to manufacturing new cell types, etc.

This report analyzes the state of the art in fabrication of both the manufacture of the photoactive layers themselves and the metallization process. We analyze the available data on how successful each approach to the manufacture of thin-film and organic PV is currently being and where the firms active in this space are looking for improvements and breakthroughs. In addition to the analysis itself, this report includes profiles of the manufacturing operations of 15 firms involved in producing solar products in the TFPV and OPV sector.

Findings include:

While First Solar will be hard to pass in the cadmium telluride (CdTe) sector, the race for dominance in the CIGS and OPV sectors has just begun. By 2015 these two sectors combined will account for 19 percent and 10 of aggregate capacity.
Annual manufacturing equipment purchases by TFPV/OPV firms will reach over $1 billion in 2009, more than double this year. NanoMarkets projects that the market for TFPV/OPV equipment will flatten in 2010 as solar cell makers fully utilize the capacity they have rapidly put in place since 2007 but resume growth and reach $4.8 billion in 2015.
Printing promises to reduce manufacturing costs, although it also faces challenges when it comes to producing the highest efficiency cells. Nonetheless, the market for printing equipment used in the manufacture of TFPV cells will grow from around $40 million in 2008 to over $750 million in 2015.

Executive Summary

E.1 Key Trends in Thin-Film and Organic Photovoltaics Manufacturing
- E.1.1 Opportunity #1: Ramping Up TFPV Manufacturing Capacity
E.2 Implications and Opportunities for Manufacturing Equipment Firms
- E.2.1 Opportunity #2: Selling Machinery for R2R and Flexibility
- E.2.2 Opportunity #3: Improving Printed PV
- E.2.3 Opportunity #4: Improved Classical Deposition Techniques
- E.2.4 Opportunity #5: Beyond Proprietariness-“Off-the-Shelf” Equipment?
E.3 Implications and Opportunities for Materials Firms
- E.3.1 Opportunity #6: New Processes Need New Materials
E.4 Manufacturing-Related Opportunities for Solar Panel Makers
E.5 Key Innovators in Organic and Thin-Film Photovoltaics Manufacturing
E.6 Summary of Manufacturing Capacity Forecasts and Equipment Shipments

Chapter One: Introduction

1.1 Background to this Report
- 1.1.1 Perspective # 1: Manufacturing and PV Conversion Efficiencies
- 1.1.2 Perspective #2: Manufacturing and Cost Reduction
- 1.1.3 Perspective #3: Manufacturing and Intellectual Property
- 1.1.4 Perspective #4: Integrated Approaches to Manufacturing
1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report
1.3 Methodology and Scope of this Report
1.4 Plan of this Report

Chapter Two: Key Manufacturing Trends in Organic and Thin-Film Photovoltaics

2.1 Introduction
- 2.1.1 TFPV/OPV Patterning Trends and Laser Scribing
2.2 Batch Processing and the Evolution to R2R Fabrication and Flexible Substrates
- 2.2.1 Flexibility, Substrates and TFPV
- 2.2.2 R2R Everywhere
2.3 Potential of Novel Fabrication Techniques in Thin-Film/Organic PV Manufacturing
- 2.3.1 The Future of Sputtering
- 2.3.2 PECVD and its Variations
- 2.3.3 Other Vapor Deposition Approaches
- 2.3.4 Printing and Solution Processing
- 2.3.5 Proprietary Techniques and Development of Proprietary Equipment
2.4 Impact of New Materials on Manufacturing
- 2.4.1 New PV Materials
- 2.4.2 Contact Materials
- 2.4.3 Encapsulants
2.5 Health, Safety and Environmental Concerns in the PV Factory
- 2.5.1 Health and Safety Issues
- 2.5.2 Environmental Issues
- 2.5.3 Issues Related to Nanomaterials
2.6 Summary and Analysis of Current Manufacturing Performance
- 2.6.1 Yields
- 2.6.2 Throughput and Economies of Scale
- 2.6.3 Energy Conversion Efficiency Achievements
2.7 Key Points Made in this Chapter

Chapter Three: Profiles and Analysis of Existing Thin-Film and Organic Photovoltaics Facilities

3.1 Approaches to a-Si and Nanosilicon Cell Manufacturing
- 3.1.1 A Note on Silicon Nanomaterials
- 3.1.2 Note on HIT Cells
- 3.1.3 Manufacturing Profile A: EPV Solar
- 3.1.4 Manufacturing Profile B: Flexcell
- 3.1.5 Manufacturing Profile C: Innovalight
- 3.1.6 Manufacturing Profile D: PowerFilm
- 3.1.7 Manufacturing Profile E: Sharp
- 3.1.8 Manufacturing Profile F: Uni-Solar
3.2 Approaches to CIGS Cell Manufacturing
- 3.2.1 Printing, Vacuum Deposition and CIGS
- 3.2.2 CIGS: Cell Structures, Materials and Manufacturing
- 3.2.3 Manufacturing Profile G: DayStar Technologies
- 3.2.4 Manufacturing Profile H: Global Solar
- 3.2.5 Manufacturing Profile I: HelioVolt
- 3.2.6 Manufacturing Profile J: Miasole
- 3.2.7 Manufacturing Profile K: Nanosolar
3.3 Approaches to CdTe Cell Manufacturing
- 3.3.1 Manufacturing Profile L: First Solar
3.4 Approaches to OPV Cell Manufacturing
- 3.4.1 Manufacturing Profile M: Konarka Technologies
- 3.4.2 Manufacturing Profile N: G24 Innovations
3.5 Key Points Made in this Chapter

Chapter Four: Organic and Thin-Film PV Capacity Forecasts

4.1 Introduction and Forecasting Methodology
- 4.1.1 Forecasting Capacity
- 4.1.2 Forecasting Equipment
- 4.1.3 Changes from Previous NanoMarkets Reports
- 4.1.4 Data Sources
4.2 Eight-year Capacity Forecasts by Type of Material Processed
- 4.2.1 Amorphous Silicon
- 4.2.2 CIS/CIGS
- 4.2.3 CdTe
- 4.2.4 OPV
- 4.2.5 Summary of Capacity Forecasts
4.3 Eight-year Capacity Forecasts by Type of Manufacturing Equipment Used
- 4.3.1 Assessment of Total Capital Expenditure by the TFPV and OPV Sectors
- 4.3.2 a-Si Equipment
- 4.3.3 CIS/CIGS Equipment
- 4.3.4 CdTe Equipment
- 4.3.5 OPV Equipment
4.4 Summary of OPV/TFPV Equipment Forecasts by Material and Equipment Type
4.5 Geographical Forecasts of TFPV/OPV Capacity

Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in this Report

About the Author

List of Exhibits

Exhibit E-1: TFPV/OPV Capacity and Equipment Expenditures
Exhibit 2-1: OVPD Versus Thermal Evaporation
Exhibit 2-2: Comparison of Common Printing Processes
Exhibit 2-3: Comparison of Inkjet Technologies
Exhibit 2-4: Inkjet Equipment Suppliers
Exhibit 3-1: Manufacturing Approaches Adopted by CIGS Solar Panel Firms
Exhibit 3-2: Organic Solar Cell Manufacturing
Exhibit 3-3: Properties of Konarka' s Power Plastic OPV-based Material
Exhibit 3-4: Konarka' Applications Partners
Exhibit 3-5: Konarka' s OPV-based Material Targets for 2010
Exhibit 4-1: Amorphous Silicon PV: Capacity Ramp Up
Exhibit 4-2: Worldwide Production Capacity for a-Si TFPV
Exhibit 4-3: CIS/CIGS PV: Capacity Ramp Up
Exhibit 4-4: Worldwide Production Capacity for CIS/CIGS TFPV
Exhibit 4-5: Short-Term Expansion of CdTe TFPV Capacity
Exhibit 4-6: Worldwide Production Capacity for CdTe TFPV
Exhibit 4-7: Worldwide Production Capacity for OPV (Including Dye Sensitive Cells)
Exhibit 4-8: Worldwide Production Capacity for Thin-Film and Organic PV (Including Dye Sensitive Cells) (MWp)
Exhibit 4-9: Worldwide Production Expenditures on Equipment for TFPV and Organic PV (including Dye Sensitive Cells)
Exhibit 4-10: Worldwide Market for a-Si and Nanosilicon PV Processing Equipment
Exhibit 4-11: Worldwide Market for CIS/CIGS PV Processing Equipment
Exhibit 4-12: Worldwide Market for CdTe PV Processing Equipment
Exhibit 4-13: Worldwide Market for OPV Processing Equipment (Including Equipment for Dye Sensitive Cells)
Exhibit 4-14: Worldwide Addressable Market for Third-Party OPV/TFPV Processing Equipment: By Type of Material Processed ($ Millions)
Exhibit 4-15: Worldwide Market for OPV/TFPV Processing Equipment by Type ($ Millions)
Exhibit 4-16: Worldwide TFPV/OPV Production Capacity by Region (MWp)