モバイルエンターテインメント戦略：ビジネスモデル・予測(2012年〜2016年)

当レポートでは、急速に拡大するモバイルエンターテインメント市場について調査し、サービス成長の主要部門および新しいビジネスモデルを明らかにしており、部門別の評価、製品・地域別の収益分析、バリューチェーン全体の課題などの分析、部門別による5ヵ年の収益予測を提供し、概略以下の構成でお届けします。

エグゼクティブサマリー

第1章　モバイルエンターテインメント市場の発展

• イントロダクション
• モバイルエンターテインメントサービスの種類

第2章　モバイルエンターテインメント市場予測

• 予測の定義・手法
• 世界のモバイルエンターテインメント市場
• モバイルエンターテインメント製品の部門別予測
• モバイルエンターテインメントの地域別予測

第3章　モバイルエンターテインメントの貨幣化

• モバイルエンターテインメントの機会
• モバイルコンテンツのビジネスモデル
• コンテンツ課金の課題
• アプリ内広告
• アプリケーションストア後のモバイルエンターテインメント

第4章　エンターテインメントのバリューチェーンにわたる課題

• MNOの課題
• 店頭ベンダーの課題
• コンテンツプロバイダーの課題
• 新しい機会、新しい課題：新興市場におけるアプリケーションストア

第5章　エンターテインメント・イベントのモバイルチケッティング

• イントロダクション
• 市場予測

第6章　モバイルエンターテインメントの規制

• イントロダクション
• 規制環境

第7章　将来のモバイル勝者

• モバイルギャンブルの勝者
• モバイルアダルトサービスの勝者
• モバイルゲームの勝者
• モバイルデートの勝者
• モバイルテレビの勝者
• モバイル広告の勝者

Abstract

Overview

• Sector-by-sector assessment
• Revenue breakdown by product and region
• Challenges across the value chain

The highly anticipated 7th edition of this industry-leading report provides an overview of the rapidly expanding mobile entertainment market, highlighting the key sectors for service growth and the new business models which are reshaping the way that content is monetised.

This report covers

Challenges Across The Value Chain. This report explores the critical issues facing operators, app storefronts and content providers, including:

• How can operators avoid the bitpipe scenario?
• The emergence of the shelf-in-store
• The challenge of discovery and differentiation
• The future of Java

The report also explores the key drivers behind the continuing growth in this space, and considers the implications that a transition to browser-based apps might have on the mobile entertainment ecosystem. This analysis is supported by interviews with senior executives from players across the mobile ecosystem, including Nokia, Bango, Poynt, inneractive and Opera.

Market forecasts. This report brings together in a single volume the key five-year revenue forecasts from across Juniper's latest sector-specific reports:

• Mobile TV
• Gambling
• Games
• Social Media
• Adult

It also includes previously unpublished forecasts on the Music and Infotainment sectors. For the first time, these forecasts include revenues generated by tablets in addition to mobile handsets.

Companies Referenced

3UK; 3 Ireland; 3 Italia; 3 UK; Amazon; Apple; Argos; Assanka; Betfair; Bharti Airtel; Bouygues Telecom; BskyB; Capybara Games; China Telecom; Claro; Comcast; Communications Alliance Organisation; Cosmote; Debitel; Deutsche Telekom; DoCoMo; eBay; E-Plus; Facebook; Fandango; Federation of European Direct & Interactive Marketing; Flirtomatic; Foursquare; Getjar; GO Mobile; Google; GQ Magazine; GREE; H13G Denmark; Handango; HBO; Heroku; Hootsuite; HP; HTC; Hutchinson 3G Europe; Japan Racing Association; KDDI; LG; M6 Mobile; Majic Jungle Software; Match.com; Meteor; Microsoft; Mixi; Mobage; Mobilcom Communciationstechnik ; Mobile Entertainment Forum; Mobilfunk; Mobilkom austria AG; Netscape; NTT; O2 Germany; O2 UK; Ocado; One GmbH; Orange; Orange; Pannon; PayPal; Playforge; Qualcomm; Quora; Reddit; Regal Cinemas; RIM; Royal KPN; Safaricom; Samsung; SFR; Sky; Slingbox; Softbank Mobile; Sonaecom; Sonofon; Sprint; Talkline; TDC; Telcel; Telecom; Telecom Italia; Telefonica; Telefonica Moviles; Telenor; Telia Danmark; TeliaSonera; Tencent; Tesco; The Windows Phone Marketplace; TIM; Time Warner; TiVo; TMN; T-Mobile; T-Mobile Austria GmbH; T-Mobile Deutschland; T-Mobile USA; Twist Mobile; Twitter; Universal Mobile; Verizon Wireless; Vimeo; Virgin Media; Vodacom; Vodafone D2; Vodafone UK; VODone; WIND; Yahoo; Yoigo; Zynga

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Mobile Entertainment Market Development

• 1.1 Introduction
• Figure 1.1 Mobile Entertainment Services: Time to Deployment
• 1.2 Types of Mobile Entertainment Service
• 1.2.1 Mobile Gambling
• 1.2.2 Mobile Adult Content
• 1.2.3 Mobile Games
• 1.2.4 Mobile Music
• 1.2.5 Mobile TV
• 1.2.6 Mobile Social Media
• 1.2.7 Mobile Infotainment
• Table 1.1: Scope of Sport Leisure and Information Content and Services

Mobile Entertainment Market Forecasts

• 2.1 Forecast Definitions & Methodology
• 2.1.1 Forecast Methodology
• Figure: 2.1: Forecast Methodology
• 2.2 The Global Market for Mobile Entertainment
• 2.2.1 Global Market Product Breakdown
• Figure 2.2: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016
• Table 2.1: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016
• Figure 2.3: Total Revenues (%) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011 & 2016
• 2.2.2 Global Market Regional Breakdown
• Figure 2.4 Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
• Table 2.2: Total Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
• Figure 2.5: Total Revenues (%) from Mobile Entertainment Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 & 2016
• 2.3 Mobile Entertainment Product Sector Forecasts
• 2.3.1 Mobile Gambling
• i. Quantifying Mobile Gambling: Wagers & Gross Win
• ii. Methodology
• iii. Total Mobile Gambling Wagers
• Figure 2.6: Total Wager ($m) on Mobile Gambling Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
• Table 2.3: Total Wager ($m) on Mobile Gambling Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
• Figure 2.7: Total Gross Win ($m) on Mobile Gambling Services Split By 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
• Table 2.4: Total Gross Win ($m) on Mobile Gambling Services Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
• 2.3.2 Mobile Adult Content
• Figure 2.8: Total Revenues from Adult Mobile Services ($m) Split By 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
• Table 2.5: Total Revenues from Adult Mobile Services ($m) Split By 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
• 2.3.3 Mobile Games
• Figure 2.9: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Games Split By 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
• Table 2.6: Total End-User Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Games Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
• 2.3.4 Mobile Music
• Figure 2.10: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
• Table 2.7: Total End-user Generated Revenues ($m) from Mobile Music Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
• 2.3.5 Mobile Social Media
• Figure 2.11: Total End-User Revenues ($m) for Social Media Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
• Table 2.8: Total End-User Revenues ($m) for Social Media Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
• 2.3.6 Mobile TV
• Table 2.9: Mobile TV - Key Disruptive Factors
• i. The Outlook for Mobile Broadcast TV Services
• ii. The Outlook for Mobile Streamed TV Services
• iii. The Market for Mobile TV Services
• Figure 2.12: Mobile TV Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
• Table 2.10: Mobile TV Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
• 2.3.7 Mobile Infotainment
• Figure 2.13: Mobile Infotainment Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011 - 2016
• Table 2.11: Mobile Infotainment Revenues ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
• 2.4 Mobile Entertainment Regional Forecasts
• 2.4.1 North America
• Figure 2.14: North American Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Services Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016
• Table 2.12: North American Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Services Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016
• 2.4.2 Latin America
• Figure 2.15: Latin American Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016
• Table 2.13: Latin American Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016
• 2.4.3 Western Europe
• Figure 2.16: Western European Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016
• Table 2.14: Western European Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016
• 2.4.4 Central & Eastern Europe
• Figure 2.17: Central & Eastern European Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016
• Table 2.15 Central & Eastern European Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016
• 2.4.5 Far East & China
• Figure 2.18: Far East & China Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016
• Table 2.16: Far East & China Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016
• 2.4.6 Indian Subcontinent
• Figure 2.19: Indian Sub Continent Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016
• Table 2.17: Indian Sub Continent Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment. Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016
• 2.4.7 Rest of Asia Pacific
• Figure 2.20: Rest of Asia Pacific Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment. Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016
• Table 2.18: Rest of Asia Pacific Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016
• 2.4.8 Africa & Middle East
• Figure 2.21: Africa & Middle East Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016
• Table 2.19: Africa & Middle East Revenues ($m) from Mobile Entertainment Split By 7 Products (Infotainment, Social Media, Mobile TV, Music, Games, Adult & Gambling) 2011-2016

Monetising Mobile Entertainment

• 3.1 The Opportunity for Mobile Entertainment
• 3.1.1 Mobile Ubiquity
• 3.1.2 The Consumer Smartphone Boom & the Rise of the Storefront
• 3.1.3 Mobile Internet Adoption is Increasing
• Figure 3.1: Global Mobile Internet Users (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
• 3.1.4 The Rise of M-Commerce/M-Banking
• Figure 3.2: Ocado on the Go Screenshots
• Figure 3.3: The mPayment Revolution: Global mPayment Transactions ($bn), 2008-2011
• 3.1.5 The Rise of the Tablet
• Figure 3.4 Tablet Shipments (m), iPad/Other, 2009-2011
• 3.2 Mobile Content Business Models
• Figure 3.5: Mobile App Business Models
• 3.2.1 Pay Per Download
• i. Pricing the Content
• 3.2.2 Free to Download
• 3.2.3 Upselling Content - The Freemium Approach
• i. The Growth of In-App Billing
• Table 3.1: Top Grossing US iPhone Apps, 2010
• ii. In-App Billing and Social Gaming
• 3.2.4 The Mobile Value-Add
• 3.2.5 The Challenges of Content Monetisation - Which Business Model?
• 3.3 The Challenges of Content Billing
• 3.3.1 Beyond Billing - Maximising Monetisation Opportunities Through Intelligent Billing
• 3.4 Advertising in Apps
• 3.5 Mobile Entertainment in a Post App-Store World
• 3.5.1 HTML5 & D2C: the Implications of the Browser-based Approach
• i. Case Study: FT
• ii. Constraints of the Browser-based Approach
• a. Discoverability
• b. Browser-Based Services Require Connectivity
• Table 3.2: Selected US/UK Data Outages 2010-2011
• c. Browser-Based Applications Can Be Slow
• d. HTML5 is a work in progress
• e. Web-based Apps can be expensive for end-users
• 3.5.2 The Rise of the Hybrid - Opportunities for Thin Clients

Challenges Across Entertainment Value Chain

• 4.1 Challenges for MNOs
• Figure 4.1: MNO Strategic Options in an App-Centric World
• 4.1.1 The Bitpipe Scenario
• 4.1.2 New Business Models: The Data/Content Bundle
• i. Case Study: Verizon Wireless
• 4.1.3 New Business Models: Leveraging the Billing Relationship
• 4.1.4 New Business Models: The Shelf-in-Store
• i. Case Study: Vodafone AppSelect
• ii. Prospects for the Shelf-in-Store Model
• 4.2 Challenges For Storefront Vendors
• 4.2.1 Discovery and Differentiation
• Figure 4.2: The Vicious Circle of the Addressable User Base
• i. A Third Party Solution?
• 4.2.2 Repositioning the Storefront from B2C to B2B: Appia
• 4.3 Challenges for Content Providers
• 4.3.1 Discovery and Differentiation
• 4.4 New Opportunities, New Challenges: App Stores in Developing Markets
• 4.4.1 Case Study: Ovi Store
• 4.4.2 The Future of Java?

Mobile Ticketing for Entertainment & Events

• 5.1 Introduction
• 5.1.1 Entertainment Events Mobile Ticketing Market Development
• i. Intensive Ticket Validation Demands
• ii. Handheld Reader Advantage
• iii. Regional Differences
• iv. End-to-End Ticketing Rare
• v. Case Study: Ministry of Sound
• Figure 5.1: Ministry of Sound Mobile App
• 5.2 Market Forecast
• 5.2.1 Entertainment Ticketing Landscape
• 5.2.2 Entertainment & Events Mobile Ticketing Transaction Value
• Figure 5.2: Total Entertainment & Events Mobile Ticketing Transaction Value ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
• Table 5.1: Total Entertainment & Events Mobile Ticketing Transaction Value ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2016
• Table 5.2: Total Entertainment & Events Mobile Ticketing Transaction Value ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2011-2015

The Regulation of Mobile Entertainment

• 6.1 Introduction
• 6.2 Regulatory Environments
• 6.2.1 International Privacy Regulation
• i. Directive 95/46/EC: Processing Personal Data and the Protection of Privacy
• ii. The E-Commerce Sector Data Protection Directive (2002/58/EC)
• iii. The Data Retention Directive (2006/24/EC)
• iv. The Distance Selling Directive (97/7/EC)
• v. The E-money Directive (2009/110/EC)
• 6.2.2 Mobile Content Regulation
• i. Pan-European Activities
• a. European Framework on Safer Mobile use by Younger Teenagers and Children
• Table 6.1: Implementation of European Framework for Safer Mobile Use by Younger Teenagers and Children by Country 2010
• ii. National Legislation Pertaining to Mobile Services
• a. Case Study: Australian Communication and Media Authority (ACMA)
• b. Case Study: PhonepayPlus (UK)
• iii. National Self-Regulation
• a. Case Study: UK
• b. Case Study: US
• c. Case Study: South Africa

Future Mobile Awards

• Table 7.1: Future Mobile Award Winners - 2012
• 7.1 Future Mobile Award for Mobile Gambling
• Paddy Power
• 7.2 Future Mobile Award for Mobile Adult Services
• Manwin
• 7.3 Future Mobile Award for Mobile Games
• EA Mobile
• 7.4 Future Mobile Award for Mobile Dating
• Match.com
• 7.5 Future Mobile Award for Mobile TV
• AT&T
• 7.6 Future Mobile Award for Mobile Advertising
• Velti