“The rapidly growing market for traction batteries will exceed $55
billion in only ten years.”
This comprehensive report has detailed assessments and forecasts for all the
sectors using and likely to use traction batteries. There are chapters on
heavy industrial, light industrial/commercial, mobility for the disabled, two
wheel and allied, pure electric cars, hybrid cars, golf cars, military, marine
and other. The profusion of pictures, diagrams and tables pulls the subject
together to give an independent view of the future ten years. Unit sales, unit
prices and total market value are forecast for each sector for 2012-2022. The
replacement market is quantified and ten year technology trends by sector are
in there too, with a view on winning and losing technologies and companies.
Global EV sales, in thousands*
Source: IDTechEx
*For the full forecast data please purchase this report.
This is the essential reference book for those who are anywhere in the hybrid
and pure electric vehicle value chain. Those making materials, cells, battery
sets or vehicles, researchers, legislators and market analysts will find it
invaluable.
The whole picture
With vehicle traction batteries it is important to look at the whole picture
and this report does it for the first time. The rapidly growing market for
traction batteries will exceed $55 billion in only ten years. However that
spans battery sets up to $500,000 each with great sophistication needed for
military, marine and solar aircraft use. Huge numbers of low cost batteries
are being used for e-bikes but even here several new technologies are
appearing. The largest replacement market is for e-bikes today and the value
market for replacement batteries will not be dominated by cars when these
batteries last the life of the car - something likely to happen within ten
years. The trends are therefore complex and that is why IDTechEx has analysed
them with great care.
Vehicle manufacturers are often employing new battery technology first in
their forklifts or e-bikes, not cars, yet there is huge progress with car
batteries as well - indeed oversupply is probable in this sector at some
stage. The mix is changing too. The second largest volume of electric vehicles
made in 2010 was mobility aids for the disabled but in ten years time it will
be hybrid cars. The market for car traction batteries will be larger than the
others but there will only be room for six or so winners in car batteries and
other suppliers and users will need to dominate their own niches to achieve
enduring growth and profits. Strategy must be decided now.
In this report, researched in 2010 and 2012 and frequently updated, we analyse
the successes, the needs, the statistics and the market potential for traction
batteries for all the major applications. This has never been done before. It
is important to look at the whole picture because traction battery
manufacturers typically sell horizontally across many applications and
electric vehicle manufacturers increasingly make versions for many
applications - heavy industrial, on road, leisure and so on. Indeed, the
smarter putative suppliers will choose the sectors that best leverage their
strengths rather than join the herd and be obliterated by corporations of up
to $100 billion in size enjoying prodigious government support.
About IDTechEx Ltd.
IDTechEx offers independent market research and advice in selected emerging technologies to companies across the value chain, to support them in making essential strategic business decisions. Content expertise and IP in our chosen specialisms is available through provision of regularly-updated reports, advisory services, bespoke consulting services and events. Our technology experts are respected, high profile and well-connected in their fields.
Table of Contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1.1. The decade of hybrid vehicles
1.2. Market 2012-2022
1.2.1. Strong numbers growth
1.3. Replacement business
1.3.1. China
1.3.2. Replacement market
1.4. The IDTechEx analysis of 138 lithium-based rechargeable battery
manufacturers
1.4.1. Lithium-ion or something else?
1.4.2. Lessons from geographical spread
1.4.3. Lessons from market positioning
1.4.4. Cathode chemistry
1.4.5. Anode chemistry
1.4.6. Solid or gel polymer or glassy inorganic electrolyte
1.4.7. Containment cases
1.4.8. Most Li-ion manufacturers being outflanked by supercapacitors
1.4.9. Where will we be in ten years' time?
1.4.10. Making lithium batteries safe
1.5. Price war
1.5.1. $30 billion industry - two thirds vehicle traction
1.6. Massive investments
1.6.1. Government support
1.6.2. Stronger value growth, hybrids pull ahead
1.6.3. Mark ups through the value chain
1.7. Largest sectors
1.7.1. Trends
1.7.2. Battery chemistry
1.7.3. Battery shape and photovoltaics
1.7.4. Ribbon and conformal batteries
1.7.5. Heavy industrial sector
1.7.6. The light industrial and commercial sector
1.7.7. Mobility for the disabled
1.7.8. Two wheel and allied vehicles
1.7.9. Cars
1.7.10. Golf
1.7.11. Military
1.7.12. Marine
1.7.13. Other
1.8. Market for EV components
1.8.1. Timelines
1.8.2. Watch Japan, China and Korea
1.8.3. Full circle back to pure EVs
1.8.4. Range extenders
1.8.5. Envia breakthrough in 2012
1.8.6. Winning strategies
1.9. Who is winning in lithium-ion traction batteries - and why
6.2. The sector with the most compelling and enduring need
6.3. Laws make mobility easier
6.4. Interchina Industry Group China
6.5. Market drivers
6.5.1. Geographical distribution
6.5.2. Zhejiang R&P Industry China
6.6. Listing of manufacturers
6.7. Mobility aid traction battery market forecasts 2011 to 2021
6.7.1. Growth by creating new markets
7. TWO WHEELED EVS AND ALLIED VEHICLES
7.1. Examples of battery suppliers to this sector
7.1.1. Advanced Battery Technologies (ABAT) China
7.1.2. Leyden Energy USA
7.1.3. PowerGenix USA
7.1.4. Toshiba Japan
7.2. Batteries and specifications for two wheelers
7.2.1. Electric two wheelers prices and performance
7.2.2. Yamaha lithium Japan
7.2.3. Eko Vehicles lead acid scooters India
7.2.4. Honda lithium motorcycle Japan
7.2.5. Peugeot lithium scooter France
7.3. Hybrid motorcycles
7.3.1. YikeBike lithium New Zealand
7.4. The big winners in western markets
7.5. Listing of manufacturers
7.5.1. 70 examples of manufacturers
7.5.2. China
7.6. Two wheeled and allied traction battery market forecasts 2011 to 2021
8. GOLF EVS
8.1. Examples of battery suppliers to this sector
8.1.1. Change of leader? Ingersoll Rand and Textron USA
8.1.2. Suzhou Eagle and many others in China
8.2. Listing of manufacturers
8.3. Golf car and caddy traction battery market forecasts 2011 to 2021
9. CARS
9.1. Examples of battery suppliers to this sector
9.1.1. Automotive Energy Supply Japan
9.1.2. Panasonic EV Energy, Sanyo Japan
9.1.3. Blue Energy, Lithium Energy Japan - GS Yuasa Japan with Honda,
Mitsubishi
9.1.4. Bolloré France
9.1.5. Boston Power
9.1.6. BYD China
9.1.7. China BAK in China
9.1.8. Coda Battery Systems, Yardney USA, Tianjin Lishen China
9.1.9. Continental Germany and ENAX Japan
9.1.10. Envia Systems USA
9.1.11. Hitachi Japan
9.1.12. IBM and National laboratories USA
9.1.13. Inci Holding Turkey
9.1.14. LG Chem Korea with Compact Power
9.1.15. LiFeBATT Taiwan
9.1.16. Li-Tec Evonik Industries Germany and Daimler
9.1.17. Mitsubishi Japan with Sumitomo Japan
9.1.18. Next Alternative Germany, Micro Bubble Technology Korea
9.1.19. Planar Energy Devices USA
9.1.20. Sakti3 USA and General Motors USA
9.1.21. SB LiMotive Co. Ltd - Samsung Korea with Bosch Germany
9.1.22. SmartBatt project Europe
9.1.23. Sony Japan
9.1.24. Superlattice Power USA
9.2. Rapid increase in number of manufacturers
9.2.1. Examples of manufacturers
9.2.2. Recharging points
9.2.3. Battery changing points
9.2.4. Can the grid cope?
9.3. Car traction battery market forecasts 2011 to 2021
9.3.1. Total car traction battery market value 2011 to 2021
9.3.2. Battery pack market by car type 2012-2022
9.3.3. Hybrid battery prices
9.3.4. Replacement car traction battery pack market 2010-2020
10. PURE ELECTRIC CARS
10.1. Electricity solely for traction
10.2. Examples of pure EV cars
10.2.1. Nissan Leaf lithium Japan, UK, USA
10.2.2. Here come the Chinese - BYD, Brilliance, Geely, Chengfang
10.2.3. Jianghsu lead acid China
10.2.4. High performance pure lithium EVs - Tesla USA
10.2.5. Lightning lithium UK
10.2.6. Subaru Stella lithium Japan
10.2.7. REVA lead acid or lithium India
10.2.8. Club Car lead acid USA
10.2.9. Tara Tiny lead acid India
10.2.10. Mitsubishi iMiEV lithium Japan
10.2.11. Renault Nissan lithium France
11. HYBRID CARS
11.1. Construction and advantages of hybrids
11.1.1. Evolution
11.1.2. Frazer Nash Namir lithium UK
11.1.3. Chevrolet Volt lithium USA
11.1.4. Toyota Prius NiMH, lithium Japan
11.1.5. Fisker Karma lithium USA
12. MILITARY
12.1. Examples of battery suppliers to this sector
12.1.1. ABSL UK
12.1.2. Altair Nanotechnologies (Altairnano) USA
12.1.3. Electrovaya Canada
12.1.4. Hummer
12.1.5. Chrysler
12.1.6. Saft France, Johnson Controls USA
12.2. Examples of military EVs
12.2.1. Manned land vehicles.
12.2.2. Hummer lithium USA / China
12.2.3. Quantum Technologies lithium USA
12.2.4. US Army trucks etc - ZAP, Columbia ParCar USA
12.2.5. Oshkosh Truck Corp USA
12.2.6. Plug-in trucks - BAE Systems UK
12.2.7. Electric robot vehicles USA
12.3. In the air
12.3.1. Disposable surveillance aircraft
12.3.2. DARPA insects USA
12.3.3. COM-BAT lithium robot bat USA
12.3.4. Aerovironment electric aircraft USA
12.4. Examples of military EVs - in the water
12.4.1. Robot lithium jellyfish USA and Germany
12.5. Manufacturers of military EVs
12.6. Military traction battery market forecasts 2011 to 2021
13. MARINE
13.1. Examples of battery suppliers to this sector
13.1.1. Gavia Iceland
13.1.2. PolyPlus Battery USA
13.1.3. ThunderPower USA
13.2. Market segments
13.2.1. Total market
13.2.2. Underwater
13.2.3. On the water
13.3. Commonality with land EVs
13.4. Market drivers
13.4.1. Pollution laws back electric boats
13.5. Energy harvesting superyacht UK
13.5.1. Cleaner yachts - Valence, Bénéteau
13.6. Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs)
13.6.1. Swimmers
13.7. Leisure and tourist submarines USA
13.8. Manufacturers by country and product
13.8.1. Examples of companies making electric water craft
13.9. Marine traction battery market forecasts 2011 to 2021
13.9.1. Surface and subsurface boat markets
13.9.2. AUV
14. OTHER EVS
14.1. Market drivers
14.2. Listing of manufacturers by country and product
14.3. Companies in the mobile robot and leisure sector
14.4. Electric aircraft for civil use
14.4.1. Sion Power USA - Aircraft batteries
14.4.2. Aircraft - Renault, Piccard
14.5. Other traction battery market forecasts 2011 to 2021
APPENDIX 1: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY
TABLES
1.1. Comparison of the price, performance, safety compromise of
lithium-ion traction battery packs
1.2. Numbers of vehicle traction batteries, in thousands, sold globally in
new vehicles, 2011-2022, by applicational sector
1.3. Ex factory unit price of traction battery packs, in thousands of US
dollars, sold globally, 2011-2022, by applicational sector
1.4. Global market value of traction battery packs, in millions of US
dollars, sold globally, 2011-2022, by applicational sector, rounded
1.5. Replacement market for traction battery packs in value $ million 2011
to 2021
1.6. Traction battery technologies in 2011, number percentage lead acid,
NiMH and lithium
1.7. Traction battery technologies in 2021 number percentage lead acid,
NiMH and lithium
1.8. Nomenclature for lithium-based rechargeable batteries
1.9. 138 manufacturers and putative manufacturers of lithium-based
rechargeable batteries with country, cathode and anode chemistry, electrolyte
morphology, case type, applicational priorities and customer relationships, if
any, in sel
1.10. Applicants to accelerate the manufacturing and deployment of the
next generation of US batteries and electric vehicles
1.11. Main market drivers 2010-2020
1.12. Number of hybrid and pure electric cars sold and those that plug in
thousands 2012-2022
1.13. Breakdown of global market in 2010 for light industrial and
commercial vehicles - global park, new vehicles, % electric, number of battery
packs at one per vehicle, ex factory unit price and value for the subsections
Buses, Other
1.14. Number of hybrid and pure electric cars plugged in and the total
number in thousands 2010-2020
1.15. Components and subsystems fitted in new electric vehicles 2010-2020
in thousands
1.16. Highlights 2010-2020
1.17. What is on the way in or out with traction batteries
2.1. Some ways to reduce the cost and increase the performance of
lithium-ion car traction batteries
2.2. Improvement in cost and performance of hybrid and pure electric
vehicle traction battery packs 2009-2020
2.3. Some reasons why ICE vehicles are replaced with EVs
3.1. Typical lithium iron phosphate traction battery
4.1. Twenty examples of manufacturers of heavy industrial EVs by country
4.2. Percentage split of global manufacture of heavy industrial trucks
4.3. Distribution of trade volume for heavy industrial EVs
4.4. Global league table of powered industrial truck manufacturers 2012 by
value of sales
4.5. Global sales of heavy industrial battery sets at one per vehicle, by
numbers, ex factory unit price and total value 2011 to 2021, rounded.
5.1. 150 manufacturers of light industrial and commercial EVs and drive
trains by country and examples of their products
5.2. Global sales of light industrial and commercial vehicle traction
battery sets at one per new vehicle by numbers thousands, ex factory unit
price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2011 to
2021, rounded
5.3. Breakdown of global market in 2010 for light industrial and
commercial vehicles - global park, new vehicles, % electric, number of battery
sets at one per new vehicle, ex factory unit price and value for the
subsections Full Size
6.1. The continental percentage split of markets for vehicles for the
disabled by value in 2010
6.2. The percentage split of market for vehicles for the disabled by
country within Europe
6.3. The numbers in thousands of scooters plus power chairs that were and
will be sold in Europe 2005 to 2015
6.4. The percentage distribution of manufacture between Taiwan and
Mainland China by value of vehicles for the disabled 2005, 2010 and 2015
6.5. Market for EVs for the disabled by geographical region, ex works
pricing and percentage split in 2005, 2010 and 2020
6.6. 83 examples of manufacturers of EVs for the disabled by country
6.7. Global sales of traction battery sets used in mobility aids for the
disabled at one set per new vehicle, by number, ex factory unit price in
thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars, 2011 to 2021,
rounded
7.1. Prices and performance of electric two wheelers
7.2. 70 examples of manufacturers of two wheel EVs and electric quad bikes
7.3. Largest suppliers of electric bicycles by number (not in order)
7.4. 34 sources of two wheelers in China by brand, region and battery
chemistry
7.5. Listing of light electric scooter makers in China. Most use lead-acid
battery chemistry but there is a move to lithium-ion batteries
7.6. Global sales of two wheel and allied battery sets at one per new
vehicle, number, ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value
in billions of dollars 2011 to 2021, rounded
7.7. Global Replacement market for traction battery packs for two wheel
vehicles in value $ million 2010-2020
8.1. 18 examples of golf EV manufacturers
8.2. Global sales of electric golf car battery sets in number at one per
new vehicle, thousands, ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars and
total value in billions of dollars 2011 to 2021, rounded.
8.3. Geographical split of golf EV sales by value 2010, 2015, 2020
9.1. BYD financials
9.2. 121 examples of manufacturers of electric cars including pictures of
many Chinese electric cars
9.3. IDTechEx projection for total car traction battery pack sales in $
billion 2011 to 2021
9.4. Number of hybrid and pure electric cars sold and those that plug in
thousands 2012-2022
9.5. Replacement market for car traction battery packs in value $ million
2010-2020
11.1. Prius NiMH traction battery evolution
12.1. 26 suppliers of military EVs
12.2. Global sales of military vehicle traction battery sets at one per
new vehicle in number thousands, ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars
and total value in billions of dollars 2011 to 2021, rounded.
13.1. 44 examples of manufacturers of EV electric water craft
13.2. AUV specifications, prices and market leaders
13.3. Global sales of marine craft traction battery sets at one per new
vehicle, in number thousands, ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars
and total value in billions of dollars 2011 to 2021, rounded.
14.1. 30 examples of manufacturers of mobile robots, toy, leisure,
research or hobbyist EVs by country and product
14.2. Global sales of other electric vehicle traction battery sets at one
per new vehicle, in number thousands, ex factory unit price in thousands of
dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2011 to 2021, rounded.
FIGURES
1.1. Numbers of traction battery packs for two wheelers, cars and mobility
for the disabled compared in thousands, sold globally in new vehicles,
2011-2022, by applicational sector
1.2. Ex factory unit price of traction battery packs, in thousands of US
dollars, sold globally, 2011-2022, by applicational sector
1.3. Global market value of traction battery packs, in millions of US
dollars, sold globally, 2011-2022, by applicational sector, rounded
1.4. Here comes lithium
1.5. Planar Energy roadmap
1.6. Number of manufacturers making or preparing to make lithium-ion vs
other types of lithium-based battery % rounded.
1.7. Manufacturers of lithium-based rechargeable batteries by country %
rounded
1.8. Priority applicational sectors for lithium-based rechargeable battery
manufacturers, some having more than one priority.
1.9. Winners in niche and volume sales of lithium-ion batteries by market
sector and positioning.
1.10. The cathode chemistry chosen by 138 manufacturers of lithium based
batteries, some choosing several options
1.11. The anode chemistry chosen by 138 manufacturers of lithium based
batteries, some choosing several options
1.12. Polymer, glassy inorganic and liquid electrolyte choice between 138
manufacturers of lithium-based batteries.
1.13. The UPS 747 that crashed in the UAE with a shipment of lithium
batteries
1.14. Number of hybrid and pure electric cars sold in thousands 2012-2022
1.15. Market breakdown for light industrial and commercial electric
vehicles in 2010 in $ billion - buses, other on road, airport GSE, other off
road
1.16. Market breakdown for industrial and commercial electric vehicles in
2020 in billions of dollars - buses, other on road, off road
1.17. Possible evolution of affordable, mainstream electric cars and other
electric vehicles that mainly employ conventional internal combustion engines
today. This shows the convergence of hybrid and pure electric technologies
1.18. Evolution of lithium traction batteries 2010-2030
1.19. Geely IG solar car
1.20. Japanese ten meter long deep sea cruising AUV, the URASHIMA
1.21. Bionic dolphin
1.22. Deepflight Merlin
1.23. Cri-Cri pure electric stunt plane new in 2010
1.24. Oshkosh truck
2.1. EV sectors with the largest gross sales value and profits over the
years
2.2. Electric vehicle value chain
2.3. Comparison of cells, modules and battery packs
2.4. Possible evolution of affordable, mainstream electric cars showing
the convergence of hybrid and a pure electric technologies
2.5. Nikkei forecast of lithium battery cost reduction by year at 80 yen
per dollar
2.6. Cost structure of lithium cobalt batteries according to Deutsche Bank
Securities
2.7. Volumetric vs gravimetric energy density of batteries used in vehicles
2.8. Traction battery pack nominal energy storage vs battery pack voltage
for mild hybrids in red, plug on hybrids in blue and pure electric cars in
green
2.9. Battery specification based on end of life
2.10. Car traction battery operating requirements compared
3.1. Future improvement in power and energy density
3.2. Subaru lithium ion manganese battery
3.3. Mitsubishi lithium-ion batteries for cars
3.4. Lithium air batteries
3.5. Li-S Cell Configuration
3.6. Ragone plots for different rechargeable systems
3.7. Active Materials Transformation Diagram
3.8. Prototype lithium sulfur battery by Sion Power
4.1. East Penn lead acid battery for golf cars
4.2. Furukawa Cycle-service storage battery for Golf Cars
5.1. Chevrolet Volt lithium-ion battery
5.2. Chrysler electric minivan
5.3. Smith electric vehicle
5.4. Magna Steyr traction battery pack capability
5.5. Magna Steyr energy battery for pure electric and plug in hybrid cars
5.6. Magna Steyr power battery for hybrid cars
5.7. EVI truck powered by Valence lithium-ion batteries
5.8. Lishen Power battery products
5.9. Freightliner MT-45 step van uses 120kW Enova electric drive system
5.10. Electric pick up truck from China Vehicles Company
5.11. Ford Transit pure EV
6.1. The Electric Car (INEC-KARO) for the disabled from Interchina
Industry Group
6.2. Zhejiang R&P Industry ES 413
7.1. Toshiba e-bike battery
7.2. Yamaha EC-f and EC-fs concept electric scooters
7.3. Yamaha EC03
7.4. Eko Vehicles ET-120 hybrid scooter
7.5. Honda EV Cub sports twin, front and rear electric drive motors
7.6. Peugeot E-Vivacity electric scooter planned for 2010
7.7. YikeBike in action
9.1. Nissan Leaf battery
9.2. Pininfarina Bolloré B0 electric car powered by Bolloré
Batscap lithium metal polymer batteries as opposed to Li-ion
