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市場調査レポート
世界における音楽ダウンロード産業の変革:市場予測および動向
MUSIC INDUSTRY DOWNLOAD GLOBAL REVOLUTION: MARKETS, FORECASTS, AND TRENDS
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Abstract
This up-to-the minute market research publication provides a concise,
value-intensive investigation covering a range of information - from detailed
market analyses through industry trends - to quantify and qualify the market
for downloaded music via online or mobile formats. Forecasts and trends are
gleaned from industry sources as well as from considered assessment of
available and emerging technologies. The report provides historical revenues
from 2002 to 2007 for the overall and downloaded music markets and develops
forecasts for the market for online and mobile music download-related services
and products from 2008 through 2013.
STUDY SCOPE AND FORMAT
This report analyses products, services, markets, and technologies in use and
in development in the downloaded music market. Among the main trends and
issues discussed are the response by the industry to illegally obtained
downloaded music and the explosion of innovative business models to exploit
the opportunities in this rapidly evolving market. The Overview section
provides a discussion of the history and rapid evolution of the downloaded
music market, with an emphasis on the impact of digital technology and how
this is changing the way the world purchases music. The Issues and Trends
section discusses the growth in certain technologies - in particular broadband
and mobile telephone - that are changing the venues through which people buy
music. Also discussed in this section are the very problematic issues of
copyright infringement and illegal downloads, how these have affected the
music industry overall, and steps being taken to address this crisis,
including efforts to involve internet service providers (ISPs) in the policing
of illegal file sharing. The Technology section compares and analyzes common
digital audio formats, download formats, and devices. The Products and
Markets section discusses and analyzes distribution models, format options,
and markets. Comparative sales analyses are provided for the various
channels, technologies, devices, and formats utilized in the marketing of
digital music. Tables include current and forecasted sales by technology,
channel, and format for the global and U.S. downloaded music markets. The
section on Industry Structure provides an overview of challenges and solutions
in the fast-changing music download market including detailed discussion of
various business models. Direct-to-consumer business models that remove many
of the distribution and marketing layers found in the traditional music
industry are emphasized. The Company Snapshot section profiles companies that
have paved the way in the digital audio download market as well as those
working on the next innovations.
METHODOLOGY
The base year for this study is 2008. Figures are based on revenue figures at
the manufacturers' level and are projected at 2008 dollar value; that is,
inflation is not computed into the projection figures.
The term “digital” in this report is used synonymously with
“downloaded,” even though, strictly speaking, CDs are a digital
format. CDs are included in the category of physical media in this report.
This study was compiled from information obtained from artists, producers,
record label executives, marketing strategists, and others involved in the
music business in general as well as those specifically engaged in the
download music market.
INFORMATION SOURCES
The information and analyses presented in this report are based on an
extensive survey of the music and downloading industries, companies producing
products and services that address this market as well as a detailed
examination of published literature and reports obtained from music and
national and international recording trade associations and organizations. Key
information from the business literature was used as to obtain expert opinion
on commercial potential and market sizes from industry professionals.
Table of Contents
MUSIC INDUSTRY DOWNLOAD GLOBAL REVOLUTION: MARKETS, FORECASTS, AND TRENDS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES
INTRODUCTION
- OBJECTIVES AND GOALS OF THE REPORT
- STUDY SCOPE AND FORMAT
- METHODOLOGY
- INFORMATION SOURCES
- DISCLAIMER
- SELECTED RECENTLY PUBLISHED MARKET RESEARCH REPORTS BY THE AUTHOR
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
OVERVIEW
- MUSIC - THE MOST POPULAR FORM OF ENTERTAINMENT WORLDWIDE - AND GROWING
- DYNAMIC TRANSITION IN THE MUSIC PURCHASING MARKETPLACE
- THE LANGUAGE OF DIGITAL MUSIC
- THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION IN MEDIA
- RAPID CHANGES IN HOWTHE WORLD BUYS MUSIC
- THE REVIVAL OF THE SINGLE
- THE END OF BRICK-AND-MORTAR RECORD STORES
- MUSIC COMPANIES SLOW TO RESPOND TO CONSUMER DESIRES AND PRACTICES
- A WHOLE NEWPLAYING FIELD AND A WEALTH OF OPPORTUNITY
ISSUES AND TRENDS
- THE GROWTH OF BROADBAND AND MOBILE TELEPHONES DRIVE DOWNLOADED MUSIC MARKET
- SOCIAL NETWORKING SITES BOOST ONLINE MUSIC SALES
- ARTIST AND MUSIC LABEL SITES OFFER DIRECT-TO-CONSUMER DEALS
- MOBILE IS THE NEXT FRONTIER
- NEWOPPORTUNITIES FOR A&R
- NEWOPPORTUNITIES FOR ARTISTS
- THE END OF DRM DOWNLOADS
- THE HISTORY OF DRM
- WHAT DOES THE END OF DRM MEAN FOR ITUNES?
- WATERMARKING TO REPLACE DRM?
- THE BANE OF ILLEGAL DOWNLOADING
- STRATEGIES TO END ILLEGAL DOWNLOADING
- THE MOBILE MARKET PREEMPTS ILLEGAL DOWNLOADING
- GOVERNMENT REGULATION
- TRADE ASSOCIATION PROPOSALS
- FILTERING INITIATIVES
- LANDMARK LEGISLATION INTRODUCED IN FRANCE IN 2007
- BRITAIN PROPOSES GOVERNMENT LEGISLATION REQUIRING ISPS TO FIGHT INTERNET
PIRACY
- AUSTRALIA IMPLEMENTS THE “THREE STRIKES” RULE
- CANADA' S PLAN FOR ISP ENFORCEMENT OF COPYRIGHT VIOLATION
- ISPS RELUCTANT TO TAKE ON POLICING ROLE
- ARGUMENTS FOR THE FEASIBILITY OF ISP POLICING
- MAJOR LABELS SUE IRISH ISP
- THE TECHNOLOGICAL DANGERS OF ILLEGAL DOWNLOADING
- ILLEGAL DOWNLOADING DECLINES AMONG AMERICAN PRETEENS AND TEENS
- THE BOMBING OF THE PIRATE BAY
- HOW TO COMPETE WITH FREE
- THE GIVEAWAY STRATEGY
- CENTRALIZED LICENSING
- THE E.U. MOVES TO EXTEND COPYRIGHT TERM
- ANTITRUST LAWSUIT AGAINST APPLE
TECHNOLOGY
- FROM CD TO DOWNLOAD--SMALLER AND FASTER
- DEVICES FOR MUSIC FILE DOWNLOADING
- PERSONAL COMPUTER
- PORTABLE MUSIC PLAYER
- CELLULAR PHONE
- STREAMING MEDIA PLAYERS
- COMMON DIGITAL AUDIO AND DOWNLOADING FORMATS
- AAC (ADVANCED AUDIO CODING)
- AIFF (Audio Interchange File Format)
- APPLE LOSSLESS
- ATRAC
- ATRAC3
- ATRAC3plus
- AU45
- DPCM
- DOLBY DIGITAL
- Dolby Digital EX
- Dolby Digital Plus
- FLAC
- LOSSLESS DATA COMPRESSION
- LOSSY DATA COMPRESSION
- MIDI (MUSICAL INSTRUMENT DIGITAL INTERFACE)
- MPEG (MOVING PICTURES EXPERTS GROUP)
- MPEG1
- MPEG2
- MP3 (MPEG1, Audio Layer 3)
- PCM
- QUICKTIME
- SDII (SOUND DESIGNER II)
- SHN (SHORTEN)
- TAC
- TWINVQ (VQF)
- VARIABLE BITRATE (VBR)
- VORBIS (OGG-VORBIS)
- WAV
- WMA (WINDOWS MEDIA AUDIO)
PRODUCTS AND MARKETS
- ONLINE AND MOBILE MUSIC PROVIDERS
- Online Music Stores
- Innovative New Entrants
- A La Carte Downloads
- Online Subscription Services
- Bundled Subscription Services
- On-Demand Music Streaming
- PORTABLE MUSIC PLAYERS
- MOBILE TELEPHONES
- MOBILE SUBSCRIPTION SERVICES
- THE GLOBAL MUSIC MARKET
- THE GLOBAL MUSIC DOWNLOAD MARKET
INDUSTRY
- ROADBLOCKS TO INDUSTRY EXPANSION
- RECORD COMPANIES UNDERGOING TRANSFORMATION
- THE AGE OF THE ZEN MUSICAL EXPERIENCE
- CONSUMER COMMENTS ABOUT THE CHANGING MUSIC INDUSTRY AND ONLINE DOWNLOADING
- PRICING
- MEETING THE NEEDS OF THE CREDIT CARD-CHALLENGED
- COURTING THE OVER-40 MUSIC FAN
- CREATING A MARKET FOR THE AUDIOPHILE
- NEWGEOGRAPHIC MARKETS
- 2008 - THE YEAR OF INNOVATIVE BUSINESS MODELS
- ARRANGEMENTS WITH ARTISTS
- The Standard Distribution Deal
- The License Deal
- The 360 Model
- The Profit-Sharing Deal
- The Manufacturing and Distribution Deal
- Voluntary Collective Licensing
- The Self-Distribution Model
- The Disintermediation Model
- The Failure of Current Solutions to the Crisis in the Music Industry
- A Simpler, Sleeker, More Fair Model for Marketing Music
- To Each According to His Contribution
- Knowing Your Audience Before the Music is Released
- Building Mind-Share
- The Continuing Need for the Recording Studio
- The Direct Connection Between Listener and Artist
- The $3 Album
- The Feasibility of Disintermediation in Online Music
- INNOVATIONS IN COMMERCIAL MUSIC DOWNLOAD SERVICES
- Advertising Supported Services
- Spiral Frog
- Qtrax
- Rcrd Lbl
- Attitude of the Major Labels to Ad-Supported Online Music Scaled
Pricing
- Subscription Services
- UNIQUE BUSINESS MODELS FROM VARIOUS ARTISTS AND COMPANIES
- AmieStreet
- ArtistShare
- Calabash Music
- Creative Commons
- eMusic
- IMeem
- Jamendo
- Last.fm
- Magnatune
- Nettwerk
- Pandora
- Prince
- Rhapsody
- Sellaband
- SlicethePie
- Soundclick
- ONLINE DISTRIBUTION SERVICES
- THE ROLE OF THE CONCERT TOUR IN THE DIGITAL AGE
- THE BIG FOUR LABELS
COMPANY SNAPSHOTS
- AMAZON MP3
- APPLE INC.
- IPHONE
- IPOD
- IPod Shuffle
- iPod Nano
- iPod Classic
- iPod Touch
- ITUNES MUSIC PLAYER
- ITUNES MUSIC STORE
- iTunes Brings the Major Labels Online
- iTunes a Loss Leader?
- LOGIC STUDIO
- QUICKTIME
- BIGCHAMPAGNE
- CD BABY
- THE EMI GROUP
- EMUSIC
- LALA.COM
- LIME WIRE LLC
- NAPSTER, INC
- RHAPSODY
- TUNECORE
- SERVICES FOR ARTISTS
- SERVICES FOR LABELS
- UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP
- WARNER MUSIC GROUP CORP
LIST OF TABLES
- GLOBAL MARKET FOR DOWNLOADED MUSIC (ONLINE AND MOBILE), PORTABLE MP3
MUSIC PLAYERS AND COMPACT DISKS: 2005-2013
- 1. GLOBAL MUSIC MARKET REVENUES, 2002-2007
- 2. MARKET SHARE AMONG MUSIC DISTRIBUTORS, BY VOLUME, 2006 AND 2007
- 3. GLOBAL MUSIC MARKET REVENUES, ONLINE DOWNLOADS VERSUS PHYSICAL MEDIA:
2003-2007
- 4. GLOBAL MUSIC MARKET VALUE BY FORMAT: 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, AND 2013
- 5. THE EVOLUTION OF THE DIGITAL ERA IN THE MUSIC INDUSTRY
- 6. PERCENTAGE OF GLOBAL DIGITAL REVENUE, BY INDUSTRY: 2007
- 7. MARKET FOR DOWNLOADED AND PHYSICAL MUSIC, SELECTED COUNTRIES: 2006
- 8. ONLINE VERSUS MOBILE MUSIC SALES, TOP 10 DIGITAL MUSIC MARKETS: 2007
- 9. GLOBAL DOWNLOADED MUSIC MARKET: 2005, 2006, AND 2007
- 10. DOWNLOADED MUSIC REVENUES BY CHANNEL, WORLDWIDE: 2006 AND 2007
- 11. DOWNLOADED MUSIC MARKET, U.S.: 2005, 2006, AND 2007
- 12. DOWNLOADED MUSIC UNIT VOLUMES AND REVENUES, U.S.: 2006 AND 2007
- 13. ALBUM SALES, DOWNLOADS VERSUS PHYSICAL MEDIA, U.S: 2006 AND 2007
- 14. UNIT SALES OF DIGITAL AND PHYSICAL MUSIC, U.S.: 2002-2007
- 15. DOWNLOADED MUSIC MARKET, EUROPE: 2005 AND 2006
- 16. THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR COMPACT DISKS: 2002-2007 (UNITS)
- 17. THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR COMPACT DISKS: 2002-2007 (DOLLARS)
- 18. THE MARKET FOR COMPACT DISKS, U.S.: 2002-2007
- 19. ANNUAL PERCENTAGE DECLINE IN CD UNIT SALES, U.S.: 2002-2007
- 20. THE MARKET FOR COMPACT DISKS, U.S.: 2002-2007
- 21. GROWTH OF BROADBAND IN U.S. HOMES: 2006 THROUGH 2008
- 22. GROWTH AMONG UNIQUE USERS OF STREAMING MEDIA PLAYERS, 2004-2008
- 23. SELECTED ONLINE MUSIC STORES, 2008
- 24. THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR ONLINE SUBSCRIPTION MUSIC SERVICES: 2005- 2013
- 25. THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR PORTABLE MP3 MUSIC PLAYERS: 2005-2013
- 26. THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR PORTABLE MP3 MUSIC PLAYERS: 2005-2013
- 27. GLOBAL IPOD MARKET SHARE, BY REVENUES AND UNITS: 2004-2007
- 28. DOWNLOADED MUSIC (ONLINE AND MOBILE) AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE GLOBAL
MUSIC MARKET: 2005-2013
- 29. GLOBAL MARKET FOR DOWNLOADED MUSIC (ONLINE AND MOBILE): 2005-2013
- 30. GLOBAL MARKET FOR MOBILE DOWNLOADED MUSIC, BY REGION: 2005-2013
- 31. MARKET FOR DOWNLOADED MUSIC (ONLINE AND MOBILE), U.S.: 2005-2013
- 32. THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR COMPACT DISKS: 2005-2013
- 33. PERCENTAGE AND VALUE OF A CD SALE BY RECIPIENT
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