米国の風力発電市場・戦略（2009-2020年）

US WIND POWER MARKETS AND STRATEGIES, 2009 - 2020

発行	Emerging Energy Research
出版日	2009年05月	商品コード	87008
ページ情報	英文
価格	こちらの商品の販売は終了いたしました。

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当商品の販売は、2011年05月02日を持ちまして終了しました。

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Abstract

Building off sharp growth in 2007-2008, US wind power development in 2009 has been impacted dramatically by the current economic climate- and US wind players must readjust their strategies in the wake of this new competitive environment. The US wind power industry finished 2008 at a record pace with 8,546 MW of new wind plant added, led by Texas, Iowa, New York, Kansas, and Wyoming. EER forecasts a sharp decline in 2009, but a rebound in 2010 and growth of 12 GW per year on average from 2010-2020 to supply nearly 14% of total US power demand.

EER' s new study, US Wind Power Markets and Strategies, 2009- 2020, provides critical strategic and tactical support for those seeking to stay competitive in these challenging economic times.

Following are just a few of the key trends addressed in EER' s newest US wind power market study:

Financial crisis stalls near-term US wind project construction schedule: Lack of sufficient project debt and tax equity finance is pushing back a substantial portion of the new wind activity originally planned for 2009. While utility-backed wind projects remain largely on track, newer entrants that rely on third-party debt are scrambling to secure the necessary capital to keep their build schedules intact. Market consolidation is expected with M&A opportunities for those companies with strong balance sheets and tax equity appetites.
Portfolio of new policies: Federal stimulus package, looming national RPS to drive US wind growth: Recent passage of the US stimulus bill and its various incentives for wind power, combined with continued growth in state RPS mandates, are laying the foundation for a strong recovery in the US wind market once financial liquidity returns. Prospects of a federal RPS by 2010 and US federal greenhouse gas legislation by 2012 will add to medium-term momentum.
Longer-term US wind development potential to be dictated by transmission policy: Inadequate and aging transmission infrastructure hampers the delivery of wind power from wind resource-rich regions to population centers with growing clean energy demand. Most large-scale, wide-related transmission projects are not scheduled for completion until after 2015. The extent to which US inter-state transmission infrastructure is upgraded in the next decade - where the Obama administration sees a strong federal role -- will determine the pace of US wind growth in the midto long-term.

STUDY HIGHLIGHTS

US Wind Energy Market Incentives and Challenges
- PTC, ITC, Treasury Grant, State and Federal RPS, Greenhouse Gas Policy Developments
- Wind Cost-of-Energy vs. Other Power Technologies
- Project Finance Environment, Transmission Infrastructure
Extensive State-by-State Analysis
Competitive Analysis of Wind Project Development and Ownership
- Value Chain Shifts and Strategies
- Wind Power Project Pipeline Analysis
- Wind IPP and O&M Strategies
Strategy Profiles of US Utilities
- Utility Wind Power Portfolios and Rate-Based Wind Strategies
- Utility Competitive Advantage In Project Development
Competitive Analysis of US Wind Turbine Markets
- Trends in Wind Turbine Markets and Technology
- Wind Turbine OEM Analysis
- Installations by Vendor and Product Segment
- Supply Chain Analysis
- Company Profiles: OEMs, Gearbox, Tower, Blade, and Bearings Suppliers
US Wind Market Rankings
- Top 25 US Wind IPPs
- Top 30 State Market Maturity Curves
Market Forecasts Through 2020
- Wind Power Capacity Market Forecasts by State
- Near-Term Growth Scenarios During Financial Crisis
- Offshore Market Potential

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

II. US WIND POWER DEMAND DRIVERS

1. State and Federal Policy Drivers
- Renewable Portfolio Standards
  - Initial Utility RPS Compliance Periods
  - Draw Near, Testing Regulatory Strength Key States
  - Responding to RPS Mandates, Utility Wind
  - Procurement at an All-Time High
  - Federal RPS Gaining Traction Within Obama Administration, US Congress
- Greenhouse Gas Policy Developments
  - State and Regional Policies Out in Front of Federal Policy
  - Momentum Building Behind Federal Policy Proposals
- Indirect Incentives Resulting from State and Federal Policies
2. Wind Energy Incentive Mechanisms
- Federal Tax Credits and the Treasury Cash Grant Option
  - Economic Stimulus Package Creates
  - Portfolio of New Federal Incentive Opportunities
  - Treasury Cash Grant Provides Lucrative
  - New Incentive for Medium- to Low-Wind-Speed Sites
  - Implementation of ARRA Treasury Grant
  - Option Will Significantly Impact Growth
- Other Federal Incentives for Wind Power
  - Accelerated Depreciation Incentive
  - Underscores Remaining Importance of Equity
  - Other ARRA Incentives May Help US Wind Survive Current Downturn
- State Incentives for Offshore Wind Power
3. Wind Energy Within the Broader Power Generation Mix
- Need for New Power Generation Capacity
  - Reserve Margins Falling in Many Key US Electricity Regions
  - Wind and Natural Gas to Complement
  - One Another for New Build Opportunities
- Cost of Energy Comparative Analysis
  - After Several Years of Price Escalation, Wind' s Cost-of-Energy May Dip in the Near Term
  - Plummeting Natural Gas Prices Hurt Wind' s Near-Term Competitiveness
  - Over Long Term, Wind Will Remain Cost- Competitive with New Conventional Power Options
4. Wind Resources
- US Onshore Wind Resources
  - Concentrated in Midwest Corridor, Far from Load
- Viable US Offshore Wind Potential
- Concentrated Near Mid-Atlantic, New England Load

III. US WIND CHALLENGES AND KEY METRICS

1. Current Trends in US Wind Project Finance
- Financial Crisis Eliminates Substantial
  - Portion of US Wind Project Investment Pool
- New Stimulus Bill Financing Options
  - Create Near-Term Uncertainty, Long-Term Potential
- In Interim, Project Finance Deals Slowly
  - Moving Forward, Favoring Relationship Partners
- Debt Market Remains Crucial Barrier, with Liquidity Likely Slow to Return
2. Wind Interconnection, Transmission, and Grid Integration
- Near-Term Challenge: Overcoming
  - Interconnection Bottlenecks
- Medium-Term Challenge: Transmission Build-Out
  - Incremental Intra-State Grid Upgrades Will Slowly Open New Wind Resources
  - Major Inter-State Grid Proposals Must Accelerate to Sustain Annual US Wind Growth
- Long-Term Challenge: Wind Grid Integration
3. Near-Term US Wind Market Growth Metrics
- Wind Project Grid Interconnection Activity
- Wind Turbine Supply Contract Announcements
4. US Wind Market Maturity Curves
- Wind Resources
- Regulatory Incentives
- Siting and Permitting Environment
- Transmission and Grid Penetration
- Power Off-Take Opportunities

IV. WIND POWER MARKET FORECASTS

1. Methodology
2. Historical Trends in US Wind Market Growth
3. US Wind Power Capacity Forecasts: Base-Case Scenario
- Potential Impacts of Financial Crisis, Stimulus Bill on Near-Term US Wind Power Growth
4. US Wind Power Capacity Forecasts: High-Growth vs. Low-Growth
- EER US Wind Forecast Assumptions: High-Growth Scenario
- EER US Wind Forecast Assumptions: Low-Growth Scenario
5. US Offshore Wind Power Capacity Forecasts

V. COMPETITIVE TRENDS IN US WIND PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

1. Historical Trends in US Wind Project Ownership Market Share
2. US Wind Project Development Strategies and Shifts
- Transmission Build-out to Shape Development Activity
- Wind Development Growth Shifting to Central US
3. Developers Adapt to Near-Term Project Finance Environment
- US Wind Developers Assess Level of Project Finance Risk Exposure
- Strategies for Weathering the Financial Crisis
- After Brief Respite, US Wind M&A Activity Likely to Increase
4. US Utility Wind Project Ownership and Development Activity Spreading
- Rate-Based Wind Activity Expands across Multiple Regions
- Utilities Entering Long-Term Joint Ventures to Reduce Rate-Based Wind Risk
5. Trends in the US Wind Project Construction Market
6. Trends in US Wind IPP Operations and Maintenance Strategies
7. US Offshore Wind Project Development Activity
- Federal Offshore Wind Permitting Guidelines Reach Finish Line
- Offshore Wind Development Diversifying into Numerous State Markets
8. Strategy Profiles:
- Developers, Independent Power Producers, and Utilities
  - Acciona Energy
  - AEP
  - AES Wind Generation
  - Alliant Energy
  - Alternity Wind Power
  - Babcock & Brown Wind Partners
  - Bluewater Wind
  - BP Alternative Energy
  - Caithness Energy
  - Cannon Power
  - Cape Wind Associates
  - Coram Energy
  - Chermac Energy
  - Cielo Wind Power
  - Citizens Energy
  - Clear Wind Renewable Power
  - Clipper Windpower
  - CPV Renewable Energy
  - Deepwater Wind
  - DKRW Energy
  - Dominion Energy
  - Duke Energy
  - E.ON Climate & Renewables
  - Edison Mission Group
  - EDP Horizon Wind Energy
  - Element Power (Hudson Clean Energy Partners)
  - Empire District Electric Cooperative
  - Enel North America
  - Exergy Development Group
  - enXco (EDF-EN)
  - Eurus Energy
  - Everpower
  - First Wind
  - Foresight Wind Energy
  - Gamesa Energy
  - Generation Energy
  - GreenHunter Energy
  - Iberdrola
  - Invenergy
  - John Deere
  - Juhl Wind
  - LADWP
  - MidAmerican (incl. PacifiCorp)
  - Midwest Wind Energy
  - National Wind
  - NaturEner
  - NextEra Energy Resources
  - Noble Environmental Power
  - NorthWind and Power
  - NRG Energy
  - OG&E
  - Orion Energy Group
  - Penn Wind
  - PGE
  - PSE
  - RES Americas
  - Shell WindEnergy
  - Skyward Energy
  - SMUD
  - Spinnaker Energy
  - Terra-Gen Power (ArcLight
  - Capital)
  - Third Planet Windpower
  - Veolia Environnement
  - (Ridgeline Energy)
  - We Energies
  - Westar Energy
  - Wind Capital Group (NTR)
  - Wind Prospect
  - Windstream Energy
  - Winergy Power
  - Xcel Energy

VI. COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS: US WIND TURBINE MARKET AND SUPPLY CHAIN

1. US Wind Turbine Market Trends
- US Wind Turbine Technology Trends
  - 2 MW and Over Product Platforms Gaining Share
  - IEC Class II Machines Continue to Account for Vast Majority of New Sales
- US Wind Turbine Pricing Trends
  - Downward Pressure on Wind Turbine
  - Pricing Likely to Ripple Through US Market
  - Key Commodity Prices Dropping
  - Significantly in Wake of Global Recession
2. OEM Market Share Analysis
- GE Remains Dominant OEM; Vestas Falls Behind
- New Market Entrants Make Headway in 2008
- Market Share by Turbine Size
- US Market Share Outlook
3. Wind Turbine OEM Competitive Analysis
- Product and Technology Analysis
  - As Vestas, Mitsubishi, and Gamesa Transition to 2+ MW Products, GE Remains Fixed on 1.5 MW Machine
  - Midwest Wind Corridor to Boost Class 1 Turbine Demand
  - Teething Issues Challenge Newer OEM Entrants
- Turbine OEM Market Strategies
  - OEM Strategies Evolve as Customers Continue to Diversify Supply
- Order Book Strategies
  - New Wind Turbine Orders slow in US as Financial Crisis Deepens
  - Erosion of Firm Contracts Hit OEM Order Books
- Operations and Maintenance Strategies
  - Turbine Suppliers Vary O&M Offer
- Warranties
- New Entrant Strategies
  - Newer OEMs Look to Technology
  - Innovation for Product Differentiation
  - Upstart European Wind Turbine OEMs Eye
  - US Entry
  - Asian Vendors Look to US for Export Opportunities
- Turbine OEM Production Strategies
  - Blades and Towers Drive OEM US Vertical
  - Integration Strategy
  - Local Out-Sourcing Key to both Major
  - OEMs and New Entrants Alike
  - Vestas Leads US Manufacturing Explosion
4. Supply Chain Development
- Blade Supply Strategies in US Wind Turbine Market
  - Strategic Positioning Key to Minimize Blade Transport Logistics
- Tower Supply Strategies in US Wind Turbine Market
  - Competition Sparks Differentiation
  - Tower Facility Location Crucial to Remaining Competitive
  - Economy Dampens US Tower Manufacturing Ramp-ups
- Gearbox Supply Strategies in US Wind Turbine Market
  - Major Gearbox Investments Yet to Emerge
  - Local US Gearbox Market to Receive Reinforcements
- Bearings Supply Strategies in US Wind Turbine Market
  - Wind Bearings Investments Surge in 2008
  - Other Bearings Trends
5. Strategy Profiles:
- Wind Turbine OEMs
  - Acciona Windpower
  - Alstom Ecotecnia
  - Clipper Windpower
  - DeWind
  - Fuhrlander
  - Gamesa Eolica
  - GE Energy
  - Mitsubishi
  - Nordex
  - Nordic Windpower
  - REpower
  - Siemens Wind Power
  - Suzlon
  - Vestas Wind Systems
- Gearbox Suppliers
  - Bosch Rexroth
  - Brad Foote Gear Works
  - Hansen
  - Moventas
  - Winergy
- Blade Suppliers
  - Knight & Carver
  - LM Glasfiber
  - Molded Fiber Glass (MFG)
  - Tecsis
  - TPI Composites
- Bearings Suppliers
  - Kaydon Bearings
  - NSK
  - NTN Corporation
  - SKF Group
  - The Timken Company
- Tower Suppliers
  - Ameron International
  - DMI Industries
  - T. Bailey
  - Tower Tech Systems
  - Trinity Structural Towers