Tightening emission standards, evolving carbon policies and the entry of
credible turnkey suppliers is driving widespread interest in coal-based IGCC
Power Generation. Nearly 4,000 MW of IGCC projects are currently operating in
the US, Europe and Asia and over 50 IGCC projects totaling over 25,000 MW have
been announced or are in planning worldwide. EER' s new study, Global IGCC
Power Markets and Strategies 2007-2030 is the most comprehensive market study
available on coal IGCC as a generation option for the global power sector. The
study provides in-depth analysis of power market environments and the
strategies of key players across the value chain.
Coal dominant utilities, large IPPs and upstream energy producers are
emerging as early adopters of IGCC: In North America Utilities AEP, Southern
Company and Duke, have all initiated coal IGCC projects, while IPPs including
Hydrogen Energy, NRG and Edison Mission are also active players. How are the
carbon management strategies of utilities and IPPs evolving, and how is this
impacting their adoption of IGCC?
The US market is clearly leading the way with 27 projects in 16 states at
some stage of development with a combined capacity of more than 15,000 MW. How
will IGCC development differ in Europe versus the US and other key developing
power markets?
IGCC has emerged as the most popular technology for commercial deployment
of carbon capture and sequestration, but still faces significant uncertainty.
The next 5 years will be crucial for establishing IGCC' s reliability to
engender customer confidence and to drive down costs. Will other carbon
capture alternatives such as oxyfuel and post combustion capture technologies
emerge as viable competitors? What are the economics of IGCC and what is a
realistic timeframe for substantial growth?
Table of Contents
Section 1. Executive Summary
Section 2. IGCC Power Market Environment
2.1 Global Coal Resources Drive IGCC Development Trends
Coal Quality, Availability Creates Opportunities and Challenges for IGCC
2.2. Carbon Policy and Climate Issues
2.2.1 Kyoto Protocol Set to Begin
2.2.2 European Union Trading Scheme Emerges into Adolescence
2.2.3 Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Policy in the US
National Developments in US Greenhouse Gas Policy
US State and Regional Activity to Address Climate Change
2.2.4 Carbon Policies Emerge in the Rest of the World
Japan Pilots Domestic Cap-and-Trade, While Active in International CDM
Market
Regional Initiatives Lead the Way in Canada, as National Policy
Backtracks on Kyoto
New Zealand Nixes Tax, Pursues Carbon Trading
Australia Proposes Domestic Cap-and-Trade
Threshold Countries Prepare for Possible Carbon Obligations Post-2012
2.3 IGCC Support Policies and Incentives
2.3.1 US Clean Coal Strategy Targets IGCC
CCPI Drives Commercial Scale-up and Development of Novel IGCC Concepts
in the US
US States Offer IGCC Incentives
2.3.2 Outside of the US, Funding Targets Carbon Capture
In Europe ZEP-TP Seeks to Spur National Initiatives and Remove
Obstacles to CCS
UK Program Attracting IGCC for CCS Demonstration
Australia Clean Coal Policy Pushes Domestic IGCC Technology
Asian Government Support for IGCC Focuses on Local Technology
Objectives
2.4 Project Permitting Environment for IGCC
NGOs approach IGCC from Varied Positions
2.5 Global IGCC Power Market Environment Ranking
2.5.1 Ranking Criteria Definitions
Fuel Resource
Regulatory Incentives
Permitting and Siting Environment
Power Market Fundamentals
Proximity to CO2 Sequestration
2.5.2 Ranking Results
Tier 1: US, Australia Initiate Transition to IGCC Through Demonstration
Tier 2: Longer Term Market Opportunities Await CCS
Tier 3: Change in Market Conditions Could Drive Future Market
Opportunities
Section 3. Global Technology and Cost Hurdles
3.1 Background and Overview of IGCC
Experience of IGCC in Operation
Status of Coal-based IGCC
3.2 Product and Technology Competitiveness
3.2.1 The Efficiency of IGCC
3.2.2 Emissions Performance of IGCC
3.2.3 Polygeneration strategies with IGCC
3.2.4 Carbon Capture Issues for IGCC
Emerging Technology Competition for Carbon Capture Applications
Oxyfuel Technology
Post-Combustion Capture Technology
3.3 Gasification Technology Comparisons
Commercial Status of Competing Gasifiers for IGCC
Key Technology Attributes Differentiate Gasification Suppliers in the
Marketplace
IGCC Seeks to Capitalize on Gasification Industry Scaling
3.4 Gas Turbine Technology Comparisons
3.5 Sequestration Challenges and Opportunities
3.5.1 Sequestration Applications
3.5.2 Sequestration Experience to Date
3.5.3 Regional Storage Potential
3.5.4 EOR Drives Some Early Stage CCS Activity
3.5.5 Regulatory Issues Come to Forefront as
CCS Interest Grows
3.6 IGCC Power Production Costs
3.6.1 IGCC Cost Competitiveness With Other Options
3.6.2 Capital Costs Skyrocketing, Damaging Near-Term Prospects
Capital Cost Breakdown
Section 4. Global IGCC Power Markets, 2000-2030
4.1 Global IGCC Capacity Market Forecasts Forecast Methodology
4.1.1 EER' s Low Carbon Generation Scenario
4.1.2 Conservative Market Forecast
4.1.3 Optimistic Market Forecast
4.2 Status of Global IGCC Project Pipeline
4.2.1 Status of IGCC projects with Carbon Capture and Sequestration
Over half of IGCC projects tied directly to CCS solutions
IGCC Projects Compete with other Carbon Capture Approaches
4.2.2 Status of ' Capture Ready' IGCC Projects
4.2.3 Abandoned IGCC Power Projects
4.3 IGCC Country Project Review
4.3.1 IGCC Markets in North America
Regional Market Trends Shape US IGCC Activity
Western Regions Lead Canada in IGCC
4.3.2 IGCC Project Development in Europe
Auspicious UK Pipeline Undermined by Government CCS Agenda
Germany Turning to More Efficient Combustion
Existing Experience Leads to Further Development in the Netherlands
Technology Suppliers Position in Eastern Europe
Southern Europe Adopts Wait and See Approach
4.3.3 IGCC Project Development in the Asia
Pacific Region
Australia Drives Carbon Capture Activity in Asia Pacific
IGCC Interest in China Awakens in 2007
India Initiates Activity
Japan Supports Demonstration for Technology Export
South Korea Wades Out for Expression of Interest
4.3.4 IGCC Project Development in the Rest of the World
South Africa Examines Underground Gasification
Privitization in Russia Places More Emphasis on Coal
Opportunities in the Middle East
Section 5. Competitive Analysis of IGCC Project Development
