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市場調査レポート
欧州のガス・電力価格のファンダメンタルズ: 2009年第3四半期
European Gas and Power Price Fundamentals: Q3 2009
| 発行 |
Datamonitor |
| 出版日 |
2009年08月 |
商品コード |
99293 |
| ページ情報 |
英文 37 pages |
| 価格 |
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Abstract
Introduction
The growing role of wholesale traded energy markets across Europe creates a
greater need for players throughout the value chain to be aware of the latest
market movements and developments. From the wellhead or power station gate to
the end-user, volatility in the spot and forward price of power and gas is
creating an increasingly challenging environment for all market participants.
Scope of this research
- An examination of the wholesale gas price trends in Europe' s three key
markets - the UK NBP, the Zeebrugge Hub and the Dutch TTF.
- An assessment of traded power prices in the UK, Belgian, Dutch, German and
French wholesale power markets
- A review of the past three month' s global oil markets: what' s driving the
price of oil and which fundamentals will determine the future
- Insight and analysis into the impact of wholesale markets on the wholesale
/ retail price interface
Research and analysis highlights
Crude oil prices continued their bullish recovery through Q2, rising at an
even faster rate than during Q1 and causing alarm amongst policy makers
European day ahead gas prices stabilised at a low level in Q2 and have not
displayed the same erratic upward trends as seen in oil over the same period
European month-ahead power prices have remained subdued but year-ahead has
firmed, indicating optimism for Europe' s long run economy
Key reasons to purchase this research
- Establish the current level of wholesale and retail energy prices and the
fundamental drivers behind movements in the traded value of gas and power
- Understand how wholesale pricing impacts different facets of the value
chain, identifying the potential to limit risk through hedging strategies
- Forecast future developments in the traded price of gas and power in order
to successfully take advantage of arbitrage opportunities
Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW
ANALYSIS
- Can we attribute the bullish recovery in oil prices to fundamentals or are
speculators inflating another commodity bubble?
- Crude oil prices continued their bullish recovery through Q2, rising at
an even faster rate than during Q1 and causing alarm amongst policy makers
- The oil price forward curve is currently in Contango: the market expects
even higher prices in the future, reflecting optimistic economic forecasts
- Buoyancy in oil futures can be partly explained by slowing rates of
economic decline in the West, and an astonishing return to growth in Asia
- The wide capacity cushion, declining input costs and a surge in
oil-based ETF activity implies current prices may not be driven by
fundamentals
- Concern over the role of speculation and the effect of high energy
prices on the recovery have precipitated renewed calls for tighter regulation
- Why haven' t we seen the same bullishness in wholesale gas & power markets
as we have in crude oil?
- European day ahead gas prices stabilised at a low level in Q2 and have
not displayed the same erratic upward trends as seen in oil over the same
period
- European year ahead baseload power prices stabilized in Q2' 09, albeit at
a low level
- Prompt power prices found their floor during Q2 2009 and appear to be
edging upwards
- Q2' 09 saw year ahead gas prices stabilize and recover slightly
- The lack of significant movement in European gas prices indicates
markets are struggling to find a signal amidst an uncertain economic outlook
- Although prices are subdued in Europe, they remain relatively firm next
to the saturated American market
- Technological advances in gas extraction from shale will mean onshore
unconventional production will meet increased proportions of US demand
- European month-ahead power prices have remained subdued but year-ahead
has firmed, indicating optimism for Europe' s long run economy
- Why have carbon prices increased despite low gas and wholesale power
prices?
- Contrary to rational expectations, the price of emitting green house
gases actually rose in Q1' 09 and remained relatively firm in Q2
- The slight return in carbon prices from mid-Q1 and subsequent levelling
off in Q2 suggests that, gripped by panic players oversold EUAs in H2' 08
- Pound sterling reversed its slide against the US dollar and the euro,
although not enough to constitute a recovery
APPENDIX
- Datamonitor European Wholesale Price Appendix
- Q2 2009 saw year ahead gas prices stabilize and recover slightly
- Prompt gas prices continued to fall in Q2' 09, aided by a ready supply of
LNG
- Peaks power prices dipped further in Q2 2009, in line with reduction in
consumption
- Q2 2009 saw a mild recovery in the FTSE, and a surprising rally in the
price of a barrel of Brent crude
- Despite the recession, coal contracts showed signs of stabilizing after
heavy losses through 2008
- Prompt NBP slid further in Q2 on the back of LNG being re-directed to
Europe from Asia and the US
- TTF followed NBP during Q2 2009, with a drop in prompt prices and flat
forward prices
- Belgian gas prices softened in line with the fundamentals at the NBP and
TTF
- In light of eroding demand, UK power prices continued to soften
- Dutch power prices remained well below 2008 levels, despite both showing
upward movements
- Falling power prices were also evident in Belgium trading
- French wholesale power prices found their bottom
- German power prices showed signs of leveling out
- UK gas retail prices showed nascent signs of declining but have not yet
fully reflected wholesale price drops
- UK suppliers are slowly passing on the NBP wholesale cost savings to
domestic retail customers
- UK power prices continue to fall in Q2 2009, and end-user bills are
finally starting to reflect these falls
- UK suppliers have been slow to pass on cost savings from the wholesale
to the retail market
- Definitions
- This brief contains a number of industry standard terms
- Methodology
- Further reading
- Ask the analyst
- Datamonitor consulting
- Disclaimer
FIGURES
- Figure: Brent and WTI Prices July 2008 - August 2009
- Figure: Brent Crude Forward Curve on July 17th: Contango occurs when oil
for prompt delivery is discounted to oil for delivery future further
- Figure: UK oil and gas prices diverged in late Q1 one and have remained
relatively disconnected
- Figure: European year ahead baseload power prices stabilized in Q2' 09,
albeit at a low level
- Figure: Prompt power prices found their floor during Q2 2009 and appear to
be edging upwards
- Figure: Q2' 09 saw year ahead gas prices stabilize and recover slightly
- Figure: NBP Yr+1 prices have continued to rely more on sentiment than on
signals
- Figure: M+1 natural gas prices on the NYMEX are trading below $3/mBTU for
the first time since 2002
- Figure: Unconventional extraction will continue to meet a growing
proportion of total US consumption
- Figure: European power year-ahead peak prices have dipped less than
month-ahead
- Figure: Although a long way off Q2' 08 levels, coal prices picked up in
Q2' 09
- Figure: EUA prices have risen steadily from a nadir of € 8 in February
- Figure: Currency rates
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