英国の住宅ローン市場：見通し（2008-9年）

UK Mortgage Outlook 2008-9: A Turbulent Year

発行	Datamonitor
出版日	2009年08月	商品コード	99162
ページ情報	英文 75 pages
価格	US$ 2,795 換算 ¥ 225,528 (税抜) PDF by E-mail (Single User License) US$ 6,988 換算 ¥ 563,861 (税抜) PDF by E-mail (Global Site License)

概要
原文目次
関連レポート

原文目次

Abstract

Introduction

The UK Mortgage Market saw unprecedented change in 2008 and early 2009, from collapsed wholesale funding markets, to the nationalization of some of the country' s biggest lenders. With many homeowners now struggling to keep up repayments, house prices at record lows and lending criteria still very strict, the market is set to tread a long and winding path before it returns to normal.

Scope of this research

Provides an overview of macroeconomic and other events affecting the mortgage market in 2008 and 2009
Analyzes in detail the impact of factors such as low base rates, falling house prices, and rising numbers of arrears and repossessions
Sets out Datamonitor' s forecasts for gross lending covering the period 2010-2013

Research and analysis highlights

2008 saw the onset of a severe recession and the culmination of the credit crunch. This led to a severe and sustained fall in the availability of credit for secured lending throughout the year. Together with a fall in demand prompted by fears of rising unemployment, this caused gross lending to fall by nearly 30% to about £260 billion.

First time buyers have been hard hit by the massive reduction in high LTV mortgages in 2008 and early 2009, the supply of which has been badly affected by the credit crunch. The few deals that are still available at the 90%+ LTV level are being priced at much more costly rates than deals at lower LTVs.

The low base rate environment has had a major impact on both consumers' and providers' behavior. Tracker mortgages rose markedly in popularity in late 2008 and early 2009, as borrowers sought to take advantage of a falling base rate.

Key reasons to purchase this research

Understand the key issues facing the mortgage market that lenders need to address
View details of Datamonitor' s forecasts to help plan your future strategies
Access relevant findings from Datamonitor' s Global FS Consumer Insight and Retail Banking surveys

OVERVIEW

Catalyst
Summary

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The UK mortgage market experienced unprecedented turmoil in 2008
- The onset of a severe recession hit demand for mortgages
- Providers in the UK were not immune to the financial instability
- These problems conspired to hamper the free flow of credit in the UK markets
- Reductions in both demand and supply combined to squeeze gross lending in 2008
2009 to date has been marked by the impact of the severest recession in decades
- Datamonitor forecasts total gross lending of £145 billion in 2009
- The supply of credit was further restricted in the first quarter but increased in the second
Falls in house prices have revived negative equity and aggravated the constriction of credit
- House prices have fallen a long way from their peak in 2007
- Negative equity makes an unwelcome return
- House price falls are affecting credit supply
- Nationwide is tentatively predicting a year-on-year rise in prices by the end of 2009
First time buyers have faced particular difficulties
- Lenders are unwilling to offer high LTV mortgages
Arrears and repossessions are on the rise
- The incidence of mortgages falling into arrears showed a sharp increase in 2008
- Repossessions also rose, but by less than expected
- Datamonitor expects the incidence of arrears and repossessions to peak in 2010
Historically low base rates have had a major impact on consumer and lender behavior
- The type of mortgage chosen by borrowers has been driven by future rate expectations
- The relationship between the base rate and mortgage rates has broken down
- Low standard variable rates have reduced the incentive for homeowners to remortgage
Datamonitor expects gross lending to pick up gradually over the next few years

A REVIEW OF THE UK MORTGAGE MARKET IN 2008 AND 2009

2008 saw unprecedented turmoil in the UK mortgage market
- The year started with predictions of a ' soft landing' for the economy and housing market
- The onset of a severe recession further hit demand for mortgages
- The Bank of England was slow to react to the deterioration in the economic climate
The supply of mortgage finance was affected by a dramatic worsening of credit conditions
- Providers in the UK were not immune to the financial instability
- These problems conspired to hamper the free flow of credit in the UK markets
- Reductions in both demand and supply combined to squeeze gross lending in 2008
- Lending for house purchases declined massively in 2008, reflecting the collapse in property sales
- Lending fell sharply in terms of both the number and the value of approvals
To date, 2009 has been marked by the worst recession in decades
- The Bank of England took drastic measures to stimulate the economy
- Datamonitor forecasts total gross lending of £140 billion in 2009
- Fears of a slow recovery for the economy as a whole
- The supply of credit was further restricted in the first quarter, but increased in the second

KEY TRENDS AND FACTORS AFFECTING THE MARKET

Falls in house prices have revived negative equity and aggravated the constriction of credit
- House prices have fallen a long way from their peak in 2007
- Negative equity makes an unwelcome return
- House price falls are affecting credit supply
Sentiment on house prices has become more optimistic in the third quarter of 2009
- Nationwide is tentatively predicting a year-on-year rise in prices by the end of 2009
- Halifax data confirm upwards trend in prices
- The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors becomes more upbeat
- Other parties strike a more cautious note on prices
- Consumers remain pessimistic about the state of the housing market
First time buyers have faced particular difficulties
- Lenders are unwilling to offer high LTV mortgages
- A third of consumers who want to buy a house in the next year will have to borrow from friends or family
- The government and the industry have taken steps to help first time buyers
- Providers have launched new products specifically for this market
The government raised the stamp duty threshold to help stimulate the market
- Providers have launched new products specifically for this market
- The government raised the stamp duty threshold to help stimulate the market
- The FTB market continued to decline throughout 2008, but started to recover in 2009
Arrears and repossessions are on the rise
- The incidence of mortgages falling into arrears increased sharply in 2008
- Repossessions also rose, but by less than expected
- Datamonitor expects the incidence of arrears and repossessions to peak in 2010
- The industry and other parties have taken steps to limit repossessions
- The government has introduced its Mortgage Rescue Scheme but with limited success to date
- Other government measures have sought to minimize the incidence of repossession
- Consumers' confidence in their ability to meet repayments has been unaffected

FORECASTS AND FIGURES

Historically low base rates have had a major impact on consumer and lender behavior
- The type of mortgage chosen by borrowers has been driven by future rate expectations
- The relationship between the base rate and mortgage rates has broken down
- Low standard variable rates have reduced the incentive for homeowners to remortgage
Datamonitor expects gross lending to pick up gradually over the next few years
In the light of current volatility, Datamonitor has produced two alternative scenarios
- The pessimistic scenario assumes a steep rise in unemployment and a continuing lack of credit
- The optimistic scenario assumes a quicker economic recovery and a more rapid expansion of credit

APPENDIX

Supplementary data
Definitions
- Balances outstanding
- Bank of England base rate
- Buy-to-let mortgage
- CAGR
- Fixed rate mortgage
- Gross advances
- LIBOR
- Remortgaging
- Sub-prime
Methodology
Forecasting methodology
Further reading
Ask the analyst
Datamonitor consulting
Disclaimer

TABLES

Table: Forecast gross advances under the Datamonitor view, 2009 - 2013
Table: Forecast arrears and repossessions under the Datamonitor view, 2009 - 2013
Table: Forecast gross advances under the Datamonitor view, 2009 - 2013
Table: Forecast gross advances under the pessimistic view, 2009 - 2013
Table: Forecast gross advances under the optimistic view, 2009 - 2013
Table: Quarterly changes in UK GDP (% change compared to previous quarter)
Table: Number of approvals for house purchase
Table: Bank of England base rate (%)
Table: Quarterly changes in credit availability and scoring criteria
Table: Annual gross lending (£m)
Table: Annual gross lending by product line (£m)
Table: Number and value of all mortgage approvals, by month
Table: Monthly gross lending (£m)
Table: Factors affecting availability of secured credit
Table: Nationwide and Halifax prices indices, monthly and annual changes
Table: Impact of house price expectations on availability of credit
Table: Consumer confidence in strength of housing market compared to a year ago
Table: Consumer expectations of strength of housing market over next 12 months
Table: Net balance of lenders reporting increase in availability of high LTV mortgages
Table: Average rates for two year fixed-rate mortgages of 75% and 90%/95% LTV
Table: Consumer attitudes on perceived difficulties in raising mortgage finance
Table: First time buyer loans
Table: Annual arrears and repossessions
Table: Level of consumer concern about ability to meet repayments
Table: Type of mortgage
Table: Base rates, LIBOR, swap rates, average mortgage rates from 2007 to 2009
Table: Net balance of lender reporting increase in spreads for different categories of mortgage
Table: Monthly mortgage approvals

FIGURES

Figure: Severe tightening of mortgage credit availability and lending criteria throughout 2008
Figure: The Datamonitor view is that gross lending will recover gradually to a level of £220 billion in 2013
Figure: UK GDP started to decline in the second quarter of 2008
Figure: Approvals for house purchase fell sharply from mid-2007 to the end of 2008
Figure: The Bank of England base rate remained at relatively high levels until the final quarter of 2008
Figure: Severe tightening of mortgage credit availability and lending criteria throughout 2008
Figure: After strong growth in 2006 - 07, gross lending fell sharply in 2008
Figure: Lending for house purchases has been worst affected by the downturn
Figure: Mortgage approvals are on a downward trend, in terms of both value and time
Figure: Gross lending remains very subdued in first half of 2009
Figure: Factors affecting availability of secured credit started to recover in the second quarter of 2009
Figure: House price indices show negative annual growth from early 2008 onwards
Figure: Expectations of house price falls have contributed to a reduction in secured credit availability
Figure: Consumer confidence in housing market has been badly affected
Figure: Consumer expectations for housing market over the next 12 months are conservative
Figure: The number of 75%+ LTV mortgages fell massively in the wake of the credit crunch
Figure: High-LTV mortgages have become relatively more costly than low-LTV mortgages
Figure: A sizeable proportion of prospective buyers have experienced, or anticipate experiencing, difficulties in obtaining mortgages
Figure: The number and value of FTB loans have been on a downward trend
Figure: There was a marked increase in mortgage arrears in 2008
Figure: Arrears and repossessions will peak in 2010 before falling back
Figure: The credit crunch has not affected consumers' confidence in ability to repay their mortgages
Figure: Tracker mortgages rose in popularity in 2008 and 2009
Figure: Steep rise in differential between mortgage rates and LIBOR, swap rates
Figure: Secured lending spreads have increased across all categories of loan
Figure: Approvals for remortgaging fell sharply in the wake of base rate cuts in late 2008
Figure: The Datamonitor view is that gross lending will recover gradually to a level of £220 billion in 2013
Figure: The pessimistic forecast sees gross lending rising to only £185 billion by 2013
Figure: In the optimistic scenario, gross lending rises to £245 billion in 2013, just a short way off the 2008 total