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市場調査レポート
英国の個人向けローン市場の動向：2009年
UK Personal Lending 2009: UK Consumer Credit Market in 2008 and Future Outlook
| 発行 |
Datamonitor |
| 出版日 |
2009年05月 |
商品コード |
90319 |
| ページ情報 |
英文 24 pages |
| 価格 |
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Abstract
Introduction
The UK consumer credit market has continued to contract in 2008, as various
issues such as the liquidity squeeze, high personal debt levels and weaker
consumer spending power continued to take their toll on the industry. With few
signs of the current situation alleviating for some time, the future of the UK
consumer credit market continues to look bleak.
Scope of this research
- Covers unsecured personal loans, credit cards, overdrafts, motor finance
and retail finance in the UK.
- Provides forecasts for gross advances under 3 different scenarios for the
consumer credit market as a whole as well as for individual product lines.
- Examines the factors that have impacted on the consumer credit market over
the course of 2008.
Research and analysis highlights
Liquidity issues continued to affect lending markets in the UK in 2008.
Although the impact of the credit crunch on personal lending markets is less
than that on the mortgage market, it has nonetheless contributed to the
subdued performance of the consumer credit sector.
Datamonitor expects conditions to deteriorate further during 2009 before a
slight improvement in some key economic indicators during 2010, while others
will continue to languish. Similarly, there will be growth in some consumer
credit product lines in 2010, but others will continue to stagnate.
The government is actively trying to rescue the consumer credit market but is
limited by enforceability. In any case, there needs to be some redress of the
pact actions of lenders and consumers in order to build a model of sustainable
consumer lending and long-term economic growth.
Key reasons to purchase this research
- Gain access to the latest market sizing and forecasting data for the UK
consumer credit market to compare your performance with the market' s.
- Understand how the market is changing and evaluate any opportunities for
your business arising from these changes.
- Plan your future strategy with confidence using Datamonitor' s scenario
based forecasts.
Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW
ANALYSIS
- The consumer credit market deteriorated over 2008
- The consumer credit market performed poorly in 2008, but although
lending was weakened considerably, balances outstanding began to fall
- Savings and investments declined in 2008 as consumers dip into their
balances to pay off debt
- The credit crunch and recession continue to impede the functioning of the
consumer credit market
- Base rate cuts during 2008 have failed to help Britain climb out of
recession
- Lenders have become more conservative in order to cope with the economic
downturn
- Despite attempts to cut their spending, many consumers need to keep
borrowing
- Most credit products saw modest falls in gross lending during 2008
- Consumers continue to fund short-term borrowing needs with their credit
cards
- Unsecured personal loans declined dramatically over 2008
- Gross advances on overdrafts have stayed relatively stable over 2008
- The last quarter of 2008 saw a sharp decline in point of sale retail
finance
- Point of sale motor finance fell dramatically in the second half of 2008
- Personal loans have strengthened their market share over the past five
years
- Economic conditions will continue to deteriorate in 2009 before improving
in 2010
- Datamonitor' s forecasting model explained
- Difficult times will continue for the UK economy, with negative GDP
growth and a falling housing market
- 2009 will not herald respite from economic and financial difficulties,
even under Datamonitor' s neutral scenario
- While the government is taking measures to aid the consumer credit market,
any long-term shift requires changes in behavior on the part of the industry
and consumers
- A Lending Panel was created late in 2008 to monitor loans to households
and businesses
- Ultimately, sustainable consumer lending requires a responsible industry
and more cautious consumers
APPENDIX
- Supplementary data
- Definitions
- Bank of England base rate
- Balances outstanding
- CAGR
- CCJ
- Consumer credit
- Gross advances
- OFT
- Overdraft
- Methodology
- Forecasting methodology
- Choice of economic variables
- Model outputs
- Bespoke scenario based forecasting
- Further reading
- Ask the analyst
- Datamonitor consulting
- Disclaimer
TABLES
- Table: Quarterly total consumer credit gross advances and balances
outstanding in the UK, Q4 2006 - Q4 2008
- Table: Retail savings and investments in the UK, 2004 - 08, £m
- Table: Net inflows of retail savings and investments, 2004 - Q3 2008
- Table: UK consumer credit gross advances by product, Q4 2006 - Q4 2008
(£m)
- Table: Market share of consumer credit balances outstanding by product
line, 2004 - 08
- Table: Datamonitor' s updated macroeconomic variables for 2008 - 13:
neutral scenario
- Table: Datamonitor' s updated neutral consumer credit forecast by product
line, 2008 - 13 (£bn)
- Table: Datamonitor' s updated pessimistic consumer credit forecast by
product line, 2008 - 13 (£bn)
- Table: Datamonitor' s updated optimistic consumer credit forecast by
product line, 2008 - 13 (£bn)
- Table: UK consumer credit balances outstanding by product, Q4 2006 - Q4
2008 (£m)
- Table: Datamonitor' s updated macroeconomic variables for 2008 - 13:
pessimistic scenario
- Table: Datamonitor' s updated macroeconomic variables for 2008 - 13:
optimistic scenario
FIGURES
- Figure: Total consumer gross lending slumped over 2008 and the rate of
growth in balances outstanding started to decline in Q4 2008
- Figure: Savings and investments in the UK fell in 2008
- Figure: UK investors have pruned back their holdings in bonds, shares and
mutual funds
- Figure: There have been declines for most products, although overdrafts
saw relatively flat year-on-year growth throughout 2008
- Figure: Unsecured personal loans have continued to increase their market
share of balances over the past five years
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